Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Been following this thread with a smile on my face for a while now,
-the best of your quotes, images and posts bundled would make a great book-,
and there seem to be some pretty smart, very wise, highly experienced and extremely old BTC-guys hanging out here.
Hopefully you are willing to advice; what do you foresee as the smartest USD/BTC price-range to buy the dip?

Sycophancy will get you nowhere

you must be one of the extremely old who likes his ass kissed FY

Yefi is wise and insightful beyond his years.  So you better watch yourself in terms of negative karma aimed in his direction. 

[1714008100]

1714008100

[Heater]

BITCONNECT REMIX (warning: scam)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61i2iDz7u04

[jojo69]

Dafuq is EOS  ??

[Ludwig Von]

whelp there it is, for better or worse I'm all in again

Not yet, not yet... .

oh I hear you, but I'm trying to focus on making good trades, not great trades...taking emotion out and all that

seems like every time I get nervous and pull an order, or worse, chase an executed order, I end up wishing I had not

One of the nice things Honeybadger teached me is to not get nerveous... . Even after doing something stupid, in the rear view... .

[rafanadal]

Oh well, almost made it to 11k

but failed, 4 digits it is .

[RoomBot]

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST        


09/03/2018 Roombot


WHY SO MANY OFF YOU THINKING PRICE WILL BE ONDER 8K END THIS MONTHY??  WHILE SO MANY OFF YOU GUESS ALL THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE  DATES WHEN THIS LIST CAME OUT

Not I, however, $24,777 seems so far away....           

[jbreher]

wheres your "crypto-god" ceo now?

I have no idea what you're talking about.

[JayJuanGee]

Thanks JJG for your thorough answer on selling on the rise and buying on the decreases!

I am also in an accumulation phase right now. The bottom line for me is that I'm long-term for this market, and my goal is just to accumulate as much coin as possible, despite price movements (though it can seem quite fruitless when your portfolio value drops in the short term, despite your accumulation).

Believe me, I can relate to folks who consider themselves to be in a BTC accumulation stage under current BTC price conditions because I was in a similar situation (pickle) in late 2013 and through 2014. 

In retrospect, some folks may argue that I was more fortunate in my position and situation because BTC prices went down throughout a vast majority of that whole 2014 period, yet the truth of the matter remains that no one really knew where or when BTC prices would bottom, and such downward and flat BTC price performance did persist during a large majority of 2015, too. 

During my 2014 BTC accumulation phase, I did not sell any BTC, and even though I considered myself to largely be out of my BTC accumulation phase by the end of 2014, yet it still took me nearly another year (until the end of 2015) before I started to sell some of my BTC and to take a more sophisticated approach to my BTC holdings that was more focused on maintenance, even though it also allowed for continued accumulation, too.   

Sometimes, it is also easier to describe what is happening in retrospect, and by the way, I have a "friend" who  is just entering into BTC, and who does not have a lot of money nor a lot of BTC. 

That friend is considerably in a BTC accumulation phase that could take a few years to play out because that person is much younger than me, and by the time I got into BTC, I already had accumulated quite a bit of capital in other areas.  Anyhow, for my friend, I am attempting to suggest to buy on the way down and sell on the way up, which would be attempting to employ a more sophisticated than what I had done for myself 3-4 years ago.  Therefore, in this newly applied case, the buy on the way down is way more lopsided than the sell on the way up - which means that the attempt at that system buys way more BTC on the way down than it sells on the way up.   Therefore, the selling of BTC on the way up remains small, but allows getting into a kind of practice to prepare for both ways and to attempt to take advantage of BTC's largely anticipated and continued price volatility.  Therefore, such lopsided accumulation of BTC practice that allows for selling too is more sophisticated than a buy only strategy, while still attempting to focus on and prioritize BTC accumulation.   

[jbreher]

These are the bad posts, jbreher.  

Aw, darn.

But are they really?

I'll try the homespun solution, install docker and all.

I'd be interested in your Internet bandwidth consumption, should you be wiling to share.

I will post some data, but don't hold your breath. I'll need some free time to install the thing - starting with Docker - and some more to figure out how to measure LN's bandwitdh tax unbundled from bitcoind's base requirements. Got any suggestions?

I dunno.... filter a wireshark dump of all port 8333 traffic? Wild speculation. I don't know how LN comms are routed within the host networking layer.

Now we get to the "bad boy" part.

My (perhaps flawed) understanding is that in the current implementation, all nodes broadcast all channel state changes to all other nodes. This is necessary, of course, as nobody yet knows how to do decentralized permissionless anonymous path route discovery.

That's incorrect. Nobody yet knows how to do decentralized permissionless anonymous OPTIMAL path route discovery. Heuristic methods with stored forward tables do work reasonably well. Several mesh-like networks work, without a single tear about being suboptimal.

Well, yes. If everyone broadcasts every state change to everyone else... but that's not much of a workable solution, is it? Actually, it sounds an awful lot like the 'solution' I described.

For those playing along at home, you'll no doubt note that (should my understanding be correct), BW consumption scales at O(n^2).

I'm sure it will improve when the routing invention breakthrough occurs.

Of course - the clueless developers! D'oh, what an unforgivable oversight! The system they implemented is doomed. They chose the SAN (Spam All Network) algorithm for both route discovery and node state update. They slept during their networking lessons, or was it calculus? So they failed to notice that bandwidth grows quadratically with the number of nodes. This way, it's almost as bad as if one increased the block size. But who would ever think of that?

Hyperbole duly noted. Be that as it may, do you have any evidence that suggests that my understanding is incorrect?

Out of sarcasm: I'll never believe the protocol broadcasts data mindlessly.

Who are you gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes? (IOW, from what you write, I cannot see that you know any different)

[sirazimuth]

wheres your "crypto-god" ceo now?

I have no idea what you're talking about.

You and everyone else.
That idjut owz is the very definition of an annoying btctalk wo poster...

[jbreher]

I'm also curious where BTC will be at the end of 2018?

As are we all.

Somebody did a monte carlo simulation based upon a random sampling of daily returns. The center of the probability distribution function was $55.5K.

$55,530 center of distribution
Probability of less than $13K - 9.84%
80% confidence interval: $13,200.00-$271,277.00

You can quibble with the validity of past returns used as a basis for future predictions, but its one analysis.

https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-simulated-the-bitcoin-price-for-the-whole-2018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2

That's a pretty solid analysis (bookmarked), $55K is a very realistic prediction. I would only assume that at the end of 2018 $55K wouldn't have been to all time high but still a very good price estimation. At the end of the day it's still educated guessing but it was refreshing to see a HQ price analysis based on raw math.

Indeed. We may need to temper expectations due to what seems to be a potential emerging halvening cycle. IOW, perhaps a completely random sampling of the daily returns is useful for predictions below a four-year-ish granularity. Though this could easily be offset by the first inlking of widespread, news-cycle driven FOMO.

[jbreher]

This recent fallback to 10k is no more a correction.

No shit! We haven't been this low in... in...

...oh...

...about two months. Nevermind.

[vanobe]

This recent fallback to 10k is no more a correction.

No shit! We haven't been this low in... in...

...oh...

...about two months. Nevermind.

It's a higher low than the drop to  four digits last week.

This time last year I was ecstatic it had gone above $1000. I can live with a crash to 10x that price this year.

[pera]

Here is a prediction: Bitcoin is going to crash in about one hour, hodl on to your butts!

Disclaimer: I reserves the right to make (at least) a thousand more "Bitcoin is going to crash" predictions in the near future.

[Searing]

Dammit that’s much better than mine.  You win.

na not mine
go on anyway

Knock knock?

who's there?

Satoshi

Satoshi who?

Craig Wright

If Craig Wright is Satoshi (or part of that group of three with hal finney and the other guy..both that have passed away) and there is a BTC Trust he can get a hold of worth

Billions on Jan 1st 2020 as he claims...well, he is gonna flush a lot of BTC and watch us burn, for how he sees his treatment by BTC community and the press....

he currently has some folk convinced that he is Satoshi and patenting blockchain and everything else he can try to do (on the assumption he can prove he is satoshi IF the

trust is real and he has access)

only a 1 out of 20 chance IMHO, of this being true....but that is my Bitcoin Boogman Senario...(hell, after Trump became President of the USA...all unlikely things in my mind now are

now possible)

shudder!

[adaseb]

Dammit that’s much better than mine.  You win.

na not mine
go on anyway

Knock knock?

who's there?

Satoshi

Satoshi who?

Craig Wright

If Craig Wright is Satoshi (or part of that group of three with hal finney and the other guy..both that have passed away) and there is a BTC Trust he can get a hold of worth

Billions on Jan 1st 2020 as he claims...well, he is gonna flush a lot of BTC and watch us burn, for how he sees his treatment by BTC community and the press....

he currently has some folk convinced that he is Satoshi and patenting blockchain and everything else he can try to do (on the assumption he can prove he is satoshi IF the

trust is real and he has access)

only a 1 out of 20 chance IMHO, of this being true....but that is my Bitcoin Boogman Senario...(hell, after Trump became President of the USA...all unlikely things in my mind now are

now possible)

shudder!

Yeah he is definately Satoshi.

Instead of buying a Lambo, he just rents one. Because when you got so much money... why buy when you can rent since it costs more.

[True Myth]

Haven't checked this thread in a few days... I skimmed through a page or two but... pretty sure I saw what looked like jbreher going bullish on BTC. What else did I miss!?

Also... where are those optimism charts.  Could use one right about now.

[vanobe]

Dammit that’s much better than mine.  You win.

na not mine
go on anyway

Knock knock?

who's there?

Satoshi

Satoshi who?

Craig Wright

If Craig Wright is Satoshi (or part of that group of three with hal finney and the other guy..both that have passed away) and there is a BTC Trust he can get a hold of worth

Billions on Jan 1st 2020 as he claims...well, he is gonna flush a lot of BTC and watch us burn, for how he sees his treatment by BTC community and the press....

he currently has some folk convinced that he is Satoshi and patenting blockchain and everything else he can try to do (on the assumption he can prove he is satoshi IF the

trust is real and he has access)

only a 1 out of 20 chance IMHO, of this being true....but that is my Bitcoin Boogman Senario...(hell, after Trump became President of the USA...all unlikely things in my mind now are

now possible)

shudder!

Yeah he is definately Satoshi.

Instead of buying a Lambo, he just rents one. Because when you got so much money... why buy when you can rent since it costs more.

Maybe he put all Satoshi's coins in an ethereum smart contract BTC Trust in 2010. He obviously can't access the coins until that ethereum smart contract matures. He can buy a lambo collection after that.

[jbreher]

Knock knock?

branch prediction!

who's there?

chuckle-worthy

[jbreher]

We’re in the cross-over transition phase between a correction and the next impulse up.

We are precisely right in the middle of nowhere.

Directly above the very center of the earth.