Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Colonel Panic]

So what do you think, guys ? Sell my next block @ $11.5k or hold out for $12.5k (likely within 24 hours...)

You're awful needy for a top.

And we get it with the mill or two already. Meh.

[1713998708]

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[1713998708]

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[rezurect007]

Is the current rise due to the double bottom?

[flynn]

Is the current rise due to the double bottom?

You said double bottom

[rezurect007]

Is the current rise due to the double bottom?

You said double bottom

lol..

[rezurect007]

Is the current rise due to the double bottom?

You said double bottom

lol..

I mean the Bitfinex Spoofer.
Caution.

[Dunkelheit667]

I'll try the homespun solution, install docker and all.

I'd be interested in your Internet bandwidth consumption, should you be wiling to share.

I will post some data, but don't hold your breath. I'll need some free time to install the thing - starting with Docker - and some more to figure out how to measure LN's bandwitdh tax unbundled from bitcoind's base requirements. Got any suggestions?

I dunno.... filter a wireshark dump of all port 8333 traffic? Wild speculation. I don't know how LN comms are routed within the host networking layer.

I was hoping not to have to install special instrumentation like wireshark. Well, when I get to that I'll do what I have to.
BTW, 8333 is for bitcoind. LN uses a different port (can't recall right now).

No need to install any additional package. You can utilize iptables as shown there: https://unix.stackexchange.com/a/398176

[rezurect007]

Offtopic:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2559585
I really miss my original account. ^^^
Somehow the guy managed to change the email address, the reset emails don't come to me..
I do have an post on the forum where BTC was transferred to my wallet.  But it was an exchange wallet. No private keys to prove ownership. I gave up trying to get it back.

[conspirosphere.tk]

So what do you think, guys ? Sell my next block @ $11.5k or hold out for $12.5k (likely within 24 hours...)

If it keeps dropping (maybe 30% chances IMO) 8K looks like a decent bottom and many advise to buy at that level, so it should hold. So downside potential is relatively small.

On the other hand, the bottom could be here or very near when the next futures thing expires in the next days, and then the price pump again (which is my bet).

In the meanwhile, to calm my urge to do something I let my bot playing with a couple of coins. Have a look at leonArdo: its new Bollinger band strategy looks cool.

[Torque]

https://www.morningstar.com/news/market-watch/TDJNMW_20180122471/the-bitcoin-bubble-now-dwarfs-tulips-and-dotcom-stocks-goldman-warns.html

Why do they even bother? Over the past 8 years and many rallies, no one has bought or sold bitcoin based on what GS thinks.

[Toxic2040]

Nanos gigantum humeris insidentes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/one-person-caused-bitcoin-to-spike-from-150-to-1000-in-2013.html

In 2013, bitcoin was worth just $150 when suddenly, the price spiked.

Within two months, one bitcoin was worth $1,000. Four researchers from the Tandy School of Computer Science at The University of Tulsa and the Berglas School of Economics at Tel Aviv University now believe that this spike was caused by one individual person.

In a paper titled "Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem," published in the Journal of Monetary Economics, Neil Gandal, JT Hamrick, Tyler Moore and Tali Oberman describe the ways in which suspicious activity on the Mt. Gox bitcoin currency exchange impacted the value of the cryptocurrency in 2013.

As reported by TechCrunch, their research calls attention to the potential risk of price manipulation and fraud withing cryptocurrencies. "If bitcoin wants to be taken seriously it probably shouldn't be this easy or legal to manipulate the markets," writes John Biggs for the publication.

Unlike traditional currencies, bitcoin does not have a central authority. Instead, cryptography is used to oversee transactions, manage supply and prevent fraud. Gandal et al. analyzed data that had been anonymously dumped in 2014 after allegations that 650,000 bitcoins had been fraudulently taken.

They found that a majority of the price manipulation happened due to two bots with "??" listed as the name of the user country. They named these bots "Markus" and "Willy."

Markus bought and sold bitcoin at seemingly random prices and did not pay transaction fees. Upon further review, they found reason to believe that Markus was not actually paying for the bitcoins he was receiving. Markus acquired a total of 335,898 bitcoins and was active from February 14th, 2013 until September 27th, 2013.

Seven hours after Markus became inactive, Willy appeared as a group of 49 accounts. Each of these Willy accounts would sequentially purchase $2.5 million worth of bitcoin and then become inactive. Over this period, the price of bitcoin spiked.

On days in which this suspicious activity occurred, the USD-BTC exchange rate rose by $20 on average. On the days in which no suspicious activity occurred, the exchange rate saw a slight decline.

By analyzing the identification numbers associated with Willy's account the researchers were able to confirm their suspicion that a single actor was responsible for both bots that, over the course of 2013, had acquired approximately 600,000 bitcoins.

"We conclude that the suspicious trading activity caused the unprecedented spike in the USD-BTC exchange rate in late 2013, when the rate jumped from around $150 to more than $1,000 in two months," they write.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see we're still riding the Bitcoin rollercoaster, down a grand, up a grand... currently $11135US/$13866CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

So much FUD...S.  Korea then India "banning" Bitcoin, the USA IRS "killing" it... and honey badger don't give a shit.

Business as usual.

[xhomerx10]

You're awful needy for a top.

The fiatcoin to fund the next decade or so isn't going to just magically materialize without me actively watching the Bitcorn markets, and trying to coordinate a snowball rolling on March 1st 2018.

Figured some people would enjoy the bantz.

Tongue my taint, mkay ?

 I have an idea we're going to see 14k again soon (perhaps Jan 27th/28th).  I bet you can get 13.5k with a tad more patience.

[rezurect007]

Does anybody know a mempool visualizer which can show thebelow:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUCmEfJX4AA1W78.jpg[/img]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUBvft7XcAAxvoE.jpg[/img]

https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#24h

Thanks much @Last of the V8s

Mempool has been having a good run lately.
https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#2w

[Syke]

If they print money to keep the btc price low, then we print tether and buy more bitcoins. Get rekt.

That's what MtGox did.

[Wekkel]

Every asset is in a bubble. Ok, PMs are rather stagnant the last 5 years  

I wonder how GS thinks about this ‘everything bubble’ thesis  

[mindrust]

If they print money to keep the btc price low, then we print tether and buy more bitcoins. Get rekt.

That's what MtGox did.

I think that's not exactly what GoX did. As far as i know there wasn't any tethers around at that time.

[Torque]

If they print money to keep the btc price low, then we print tether and buy more bitcoins. Get rekt.

That's what MtGox did.

I think that's not exactly what GoX did. As far as i know there wasn't any tethers around at that time.

During the '13/'14 downturn, there was just constant dumping. Thousands and thousands of coins, over such long months of non-stop dumping. It baffled everyone. Then later when it was revealed that Mt. Gox had been hacked two years earlier and was insolvent, I suddenly realized where all those mystery coins were coming from.

In hindsight, Mt. Gox getting hacked and shut down was the best thing that could have happened to the longevity of the Bitcoin market. Just imagine if the hackers still had all of those hundreds of thousands of coins that they dumped back then. This rally downturn would be getting so much more rekt right now.

[Ibian]

In-person trading is getting pretty wack. The higher the price goes the more people wanna buy. I'm looking at 2-3 normal salaries these past few months, for nothing more than some ten-minute meetings. Never could have imagined this back when I started doing it.

[Torque]

Every asset is in a bubble. Ok, PMs are rather stagnant the last 5 years  

I wonder how GS thinks about this ‘everything bubble’ thesis  

True. Good buying op if you like PMs. I sometimes buy a little here and there for insurance, not an investment.

Commodities adjusted for historical inflation are also undervalued right now.

I wonder how GS thinks about this ‘everything bubble’ thesis  

Well, since they helped create it...  

[Lopumbo]

I think that's not exactly what GoX did. As far as i know there wasn't any tethers around at that time.

That's what they did - federal reserve banking including massive price manipulation through bots