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Poll
Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
Yes - 60 (50%)
No, it's coming later this year - 44 (36.7%)
No, it's coming next year or after - 16 (13.3%)
Total Voters: 120

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25782127 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Toxic2040
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February 01, 2018, 11:52:14 PM

I'm not at all sure it's over yet.

It seems like with bitcoin we will know it's over when it turns so fast it snaps your head back and we get a +5K hourly candle.


My thoughts also..where is the whiplash...I dont feel like I have been flogged nearly enough.


I am also curious when the flippening is going to happen. When will ETH over take BCH....I think its close.
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TERA2
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February 01, 2018, 11:55:43 PM

Wasnt it just a couple months ago that eth fell all the way to some 0.02btc and now were already talking about the flippening again?
explorer
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February 01, 2018, 11:56:53 PM

I have a strong gut feeling something like this is going to happen:  Tongue





I remember a time when dinosaurs roamed the WO freely.  Now they are such a rare sight.


I came close to skipping pages today.  This can't keep up.  Or I can't.
btcbeliever
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February 01, 2018, 11:58:51 PM

a new price poll is needed.
Dakustaking76
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February 02, 2018, 12:08:07 AM

I have a strong gut feeling something like this is going to happen:  Tongue







Lol
Nice
Chart  Grin love dino's
rafanadal
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February 02, 2018, 12:08:30 AM

a new price poll is needed.
with more options below current price.
HI-TEC99
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February 02, 2018, 12:10:53 AM

I have a strong gut feeling something like this is going to happen:  Tongue





I remember a time when dinosaurs roamed the WO freely.  Now they are such a rare sight.


I came close to skipping pages today.  This can't keep up.  Or I can't.

These were some of my favourites from the triple digit stone age.










rezurect007
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February 02, 2018, 12:18:33 AM

Im out.
5550
explorer
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February 02, 2018, 12:18:33 AM

I have a strong gut feeling something like this is going to happen:  Tongue





I remember a time when dinosaurs roamed the WO freely.  Now they are such a rare sight.


I came close to skipping pages today.  This can't keep up.  Or I can't.

These were some of my favourites from the triple digit stone age.












Haha! I saved a pile of them as well.  One day I will have to dig out that drive and get them posted back here Smiley
samsonn25
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February 02, 2018, 12:20:12 AM

Next major support is weekly moving average 7800
Toxic2040
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February 02, 2018, 12:21:51 AM

Wasnt it just a couple months ago that eth fell all the way to some 0.02btc and now were already talking about the flippening again?

I don't think its a threat to bitcoin...but its getting closer.  .113/.138 etc/bch. I can see that happening I guess..but I have to admit I am probably biased.
User705
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February 02, 2018, 12:24:39 AM

People, things are not complicated, this is not some kind of natural disaster, what is happening is that scammers at Scamfinex have to produce 1 US$ for every 1 USDT they produced out of the thin air, or they will go to jail. No matter how low the price is, they have no choice but to sell BTC, there's no other way they can produce US$. Point is they can not sell your coins, they can only sell theirs. It's that simple, why would anyone care if they loose the whole sum they've acquired through scam? They can either sell enough to cover the scam, or fail and go to jail. Sooner or later they will run out of BTC and the line will be drown under, their BTC will be in someone else hands, but your BTC will remain in yours. It's that simple, as someone said 1 BTC will always be 1 BTC, there's no reason to fear of their failure. Only way you can fail is to sell your coins, otherwise you can not lose because this is not your game that is happening right now.
What makes you think they can’t sell “your” coins?
explorer
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February 02, 2018, 12:29:37 AM

People, things are not complicated, this is not some kind of natural disaster, what is happening is that scammers at Scamfinex have to produce 1 US$ for every 1 USDT they produced out of the thin air, or they will go to jail. No matter how low the price is, they have no choice but to sell BTC, there's no other way they can produce US$. Point is they can not sell your coins, they can only sell theirs. It's that simple, why would anyone care if they loose the whole sum they've acquired through scam? They can either sell enough to cover the scam, or fail and go to jail. Sooner or later they will run out of BTC and the line will be drown under, their BTC will be in someone else hands, but your BTC will remain in yours. It's that simple, as someone said 1 BTC will always be 1 BTC, there's no reason to fear of their failure. Only way you can fail is to sell your coins, otherwise you can not lose because this is not your game that is happening right now.
What makes you think they can’t sell “your” coins?

Simple.  YOUR coins are in YOUR control.  If they are on an exchange, they are NOT YOUR COINS.  Not that User705 needs to hear this, but there are a lot of noobs that need it drummed into their heads repeatedly.
Toxic2040
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February 02, 2018, 12:33:20 AM

What makes you think they can’t sell “your” coins?




You can not haz my keys....ever.
User705
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February 02, 2018, 12:35:19 AM

People, things are not complicated, this is not some kind of natural disaster, what is happening is that scammers at Scamfinex have to produce 1 US$ for every 1 USDT they produced out of the thin air, or they will go to jail. No matter how low the price is, they have no choice but to sell BTC, there's no other way they can produce US$. Point is they can not sell your coins, they can only sell theirs. It's that simple, why would anyone care if they loose the whole sum they've acquired through scam? They can either sell enough to cover the scam, or fail and go to jail. Sooner or later they will run out of BTC and the line will be drown under, their BTC will be in someone else hands, but your BTC will remain in yours. It's that simple, as someone said 1 BTC will always be 1 BTC, there's no reason to fear of their failure. Only way you can fail is to sell your coins, otherwise you can not lose because this is not your game that is happening right now.
What makes you think they can’t sell “your” coins?

Simple.  YOUR coins are in YOUR control.  If they are on an exchange, they are NOT YOUR COINS.  Not that User705 needs to hear this, but there are a lot of noobs that need it drummed into their heads repeatedly.
My bad I thought you were implying they can’t sell the coins you think are “yours” on their exchange.  Wink
RoomBot
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February 02, 2018, 12:36:17 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), JayJuanGee (1)

Merit is going to be unfairly biased towards bulls, even if the bears are posting fantastic bear charts analysis with accurate predictions and the bulls are spamming about trains and insulting bears.


Bulls HODLing through thick and thin since the beginning know a lot more than newbie bears.

so, yeah.
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February 02, 2018, 12:41:39 AM

toknormal
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February 02, 2018, 12:51:58 AM
Last edit: February 02, 2018, 01:38:17 AM by toknormal
Merited by Wolf Rainer (7), infofront (5), soullyG (5), Murat (3), RoomBot (2), vapourminer (1), conspirosphere.tk (1), afbitcoins (1), Arriemoller (1), fabiorem (1), Dunkelheit667 (1), rolling (1), AZwarel (1), Heater (1), baros008 (1)

Look folks, just put all background noise about tether, India guv, Roubini FUD and other distractions out of your minds.

Here's what's going on. The correction is technical, pure and simple.

If you checkout this chart from 2015/2016/17, you can see that bitcoin grows in these 8-monthly bubbles which burst in the "propellor correction" fashion I described. The pattern's always the same:



That is:

 • market starts rising out of a bowl
 • gets to a point where it overheats
 • nosedives sharply all the way down to retest just below the previous "propellor spike"
 • retraces halfway up the initial correction and stabilises
 • drifts slowly down from there to settle from where it starts the next cycle

During 2017 these corrections got closer together as we've had both greater market depth AND unprecedented growth during the year. So instead of our 8-monthly crash and recovery we've had 3 of those consolidations (that manifest in the lowest resolution weekly chart) in the last 6 months instead of 1. The last one was in November, peaking at $7500. Together, those 3 consolidations amounted to an aggregate 77% retrace spanning 6-8 months. ($7500, November, $1825 end May).



What this means according to precedent is that we NEED to retest at least that 7500 (+or- 20%) region before progressing. It's just the bitcoin way. This is an uncapitalised asset class that's rapidly capitalising and there's so much clamour to get in that it can't do it smoothly.

The low of $8455 we saw on Bitstamp a couple of hours ago may or may not be the bottom of the wick. To complete the full depth of the needed correction we may have to revisit the $7500 level or even 6k at a pinch to really bake in the last runup but that could just as easily manifest as a momentary panic "fat finger" dump before retracing back up the decline to around the $13k level which is 50% of the consolidation we've had since the peak.


How Does this Compare to the 2013 bubble ?

In fact the 2013 rally and that nightmare 18 month recovery followed exactly the same pattern. The reason it took so long to recover is because it went straight from $126 all the way to the top in 7 straight weeks without any of these bubble-bursting corrections on the way (or even mini corrections). That meant that the last support level was the so called "Cyprus spike" way back in April 2013 when it spiked at $266. And sure enough - according to form - it went all the way back to retest that level and a bit more for good measure. Note this is very different to the situation we have now on 3 counts:

1. the rise from $1000 to $19k (16k realistically) is comparable in relative terms but has taken a whole year instead of just 7 weeks

2. we have 3 fairly hefty consolidations which more or less overlap each other and we've almost arrived at the last of those already

3. the correction is rapid and deep which is a good sign because it snaps the market quickly back into a more reasonable trend that can be sustained (see previous "propellor corrections how they've played out).

Note: the angle between the support level and the 3 retracement lines in the 2013 chart below. You can see from that that the closer the retracement occurs to the peak blow-off, the higher the bottom will be. 2014 went low because it retraced so slowly and didn't hit the fan-line for a whole year.

Conclusion is, this means the bottom will be in fairly quickly and it's likely to be in the region of the $7500 level +/- 20% in my opinion followed by a fairly rapid (21 day) retrace to the upside as shorts close and off-book demand goes back onto the order books. If not, there are still a furter two consolidation levels available below that but it'd be a brave shorter that would put a lot of money behind adverse trades at those levels given the precedents IMO.


explorer
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February 02, 2018, 12:53:35 AM

People, things are not complicated, this is not some kind of natural disaster, what is happening is that scammers at Scamfinex have to produce 1 US$ for every 1 USDT they produced out of the thin air, or they will go to jail. No matter how low the price is, they have no choice but to sell BTC, there's no other way they can produce US$. Point is they can not sell your coins, they can only sell theirs. It's that simple, why would anyone care if they loose the whole sum they've acquired through scam? They can either sell enough to cover the scam, or fail and go to jail. Sooner or later they will run out of BTC and the line will be drown under, their BTC will be in someone else hands, but your BTC will remain in yours. It's that simple, as someone said 1 BTC will always be 1 BTC, there's no reason to fear of their failure. Only way you can fail is to sell your coins, otherwise you can not lose because this is not your game that is happening right now.
What makes you think they can’t sell “your” coins?

Simple.  YOUR coins are in YOUR control.  If they are on an exchange, they are NOT YOUR COINS.  Not that User705 needs to hear this, but there are a lot of noobs that need it drummed into their heads repeatedly.
My bad I thought you were implying they can’t sell the coins you think are “yours” on their exchange.  Wink

I think you are probably correct.  My statement was more of a support to yours  Wink
Toxic2040
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February 02, 2018, 12:57:20 AM

Simple.  YOUR coins are in YOUR control.  If they are on an exchange, they are NOT YOUR COINS.  Not that User705 needs to hear this, but there are a lot of noobs that need it drummed into their heads repeatedly.
Missed this as the pages whirled by.
Yep..should be a sticky somewhere..should be a required opsec course to get a forum account instead of these dumb ass sMerits. 
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