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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 17 (29.8%)
2020 - 22 (38.6%)
2021 - 14 (24.6%)
2022 - 2 (3.5%)
2023 - 0 (0%)
Never - 2 (3.5%)
Total Voters: 57

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21169307 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (23 posts by 12 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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February 05, 2018, 04:14:07 AM

Who's selling at these prices and why?
I sold short term at 8500 and bought at 8000, but I am gambling with money I can afford to lose.

Now just waiting for the recovery of market.

Well I can't stop wondering who the hell is selling at 40% of ATH.
Everybody who bought during the bull run would sell at lost. Those who bought earlier came before btc went full hype, so I think those guys should have more the hodler profile or similar.

So my best guess is, weak hands afraid to lose more than they already have money are actually selling at lost + whales dumping + guys speculating on the decreasing price as you do.

But all of that for one whole month of practically straight decreasing ?
Come on I need to breathe.

One magically new ATH right would please me so freaking much  Grin


What about you Nosk?  What is your situation?  You buying, selling, hodling?  Accumulating or already accumulated?

I would say that I already accumulated (since I mined a few in 2013 and then martin galed until ~5-6btc). I have hodl since. But after last december that I felt really dumb, having miss a beautiful oportunity. So now I trade a bit but I'm pretty shy in my orders. I have a feeeew selling at ~9k € in case of a bounce and Im initiating to shitcoins trading to earn more btc.
Currently dont want to inject my fiat in that, it would be too bad to sleep in the streets for the sake of hodling an accumulating Grin

I consider that most new BTC entrants go through an accumulation stage, and thereafter a maintenance stage, so it sounds like you mostly went through your accumulation stage already, and you are in a kind of maintenance stage.. and hopefully, you don't gamble with too much of your BTC holdings while you are in a maintenance stage..

Of course a maintenance stage does not foreclose BTC accumulation, but usually a sign of being in a maintenance stage is that you are not as desperate to establish your stake - and largely you have already acquired enough BTC in case the price goes up.

I consider myself to have taken about a year from 2013 to the end of 2014 for my accumulation stage, and I have been in a maintenance stage ever since.  I think that my maintenance stage has become more and more refined, but I don't think that my skills caused the refinement but instead the fortune of our most recent exorbitant price rise from $2,600 to $19,666... .. but yeah, we are back in the doldrums of $8k-ish, but did not stop me from feeling a certain level of comfort from maintenance refinement.  When we get to $100k (assuming we do at some point - perhaps less than 5 years?  perhaps?), then I will likely develop even a more "refined" perspective regarding the significance of maintenance.


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February 05, 2018, 04:21:49 AM

I think that my maintenance stage has become more and more refined, but I don't think that my skills caused the refinement but instead the fortune of our most recent exorbitant price rise from $2,600 to $19,666... .. but yeah, we are back in the doldrums of $8k-ish, but did not stop me from feeling a certain level of comfort from maintenance refinement.  When we get to $100k (assuming we do at some point - perhaps less than 5 years?  perhaps?), then I will likely develop even a more "refined" perspective regarding the significance of maintenance.
I can't help imagining you as you build the phrase and deliver it in a rhythmic deep baritone with hints of Spanish accents. A cigar and your favorite drink are all the props needed for the scene.
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February 05, 2018, 04:26:04 AM

So masterluc was wrong ?

Starting to look that way
Actually, 7.5k wasn't ruled out, but labeled as "less likely" (possibly, "much less likely" - not sure). Not to play devil's advocate, but how do you expect a Bulgarian fortune teller witch to speak in plain, unambiguous words?
bones261
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February 05, 2018, 04:31:07 AM

Gee whiz. Do these bears ever run out of coins?  Undecided
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February 05, 2018, 04:32:22 AM

Here's where the dumb money starts selling after a 65% drop, instead of dollar cost averaging. Even if we go into bear mode, they cant wait til the 2020 halving/100K btc.
JayJuanGee
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February 05, 2018, 04:47:23 AM

I think that my maintenance stage has become more and more refined, but I don't think that my skills caused the refinement but instead the fortune of our most recent exorbitant price rise from $2,600 to $19,666... .. but yeah, we are back in the doldrums of $8k-ish, but did not stop me from feeling a certain level of comfort from maintenance refinement.  When we get to $100k (assuming we do at some point - perhaps less than 5 years?  perhaps?), then I will likely develop even a more "refined" perspective regarding the significance of maintenance.
I can't help imagining you as you build the phrase and deliver it in a rhythmic deep baritone with hints of Spanish accents. A cigar and your favorite drink are all the props needed for the scene.


Way back in WO history (must have been during the mid-to late 2015 time period when I continued to assert that my average price per BTC was coming down, but my average price continued in the lower $500s), there was a poster who said something like, "we know that we are in the clear when JJG's BTC holdings are in the black, rather than continuously in the red."  

Then like a year later maybe mid 2016, when prices were in the $600s and $700s one of the posters that was previously harping on that "JJG should be in profits" theme, said something like:  "JJG, you fucker, you used to be a lot nicer, and more humble and polite when your BTC holdings were 50% in the red, and now you have turned into an asshole."  

hahahahahhahaha  something like that.  

Without conceding any truth of the matter asserted, perhaps reasonable claims can be made that money causes changes in the way each of us carries ourselves, whether in the real world or online?

It does still seem like $100k is going to happen some day, whether 1 year or 5 years or 10 years, but like what was said in an earlier post, we still should find ways to be happy, even if we do not continue down the short-term exponential BTC price upturn path and a year from now, or even two years, we are merely just at a price that is a few percentage points higher than our current price.  We gotta prepare for potential flat, even though no matter what our BIGGEST probability of a guaranteed status remains ongoing BTC price volatility - whether UP, DOWN or sideways, we are nearly guaranteed to experience continued volatility until BTC prices are well above $100k (assuming that they get there some day in the reasonable future).
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February 05, 2018, 05:12:27 AM

It's shorting, not real selling. I have a hunch most nonwhale hodler/accumulators have raked in what they could at increasingly discounted prices. I did, for the most part, as JJGee duly hypothesized (well, grandma apart).

However, shorting much longer (pun, sorry) could turn into risky business if any whale hodler/accumulator smells easy prey. I'd guess on the whole hodlers/accumulators tend to be less aggressive than pump&dumpers, but but. If one's pissed off enough, and the kill is easy enough...
If selling is not logical then I would find shorting even more illogical...
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February 05, 2018, 05:37:06 AM

Guys

Have a plan for both $100k and $100.   Both are possible.  

That is all.
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February 05, 2018, 05:39:49 AM

really bitcoin?  you want this on your conscience?
https://i.imgur.com/PMuI9hj.jpg

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February 05, 2018, 05:41:33 AM

I went on a weekend vacation and I missed a hundred pages (give or take a few dozen). And my coins are in the red still. So nothing new. Still double digits. Going to get interesting this month.


How could you be "in the red"?  Do you mean red since ATH or red overall? Any of us who have been in more than a year, should be considerably in the black unless we made some decent sized mistakes.  Remember last year, we had a dip into the the $800s around this time?


That would be me...went on coinbase..it said BTC was up down like 37% this month or some such...toggled it for the year BTC was up 800% ..so perspective matters...

*just sorry to let the lambo's go* or in reality...push them in the future....(only a pair will do...one for the trophy girlfriend)







Ack! you jinx'd it with the 'hot girl' while BTC is tanking...Ack!

(damn it is too soon....see the above in this post!) Ack!



jojo69
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February 05, 2018, 05:45:38 AM

Gee whiz. Do these bears ever run out of coins?  Undecided

its the old school miner whales...getting out while they still can...it's over man...it's over
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February 05, 2018, 05:48:42 AM

Gee whiz. Do these bears ever run out of coins?  Undecided

its the old school miner whales...getting out while they still can...it's over man...


not me...riding it into the dirt.......it goes to 1 buck coin...its still all profit after equipment etc since 2013.....

what bugs me is I had stupid plans for blowing some ALT coins...they look sicker then BTC now....

alas, easy come easy go!

Sob! (almost got thru this post w/o breaking into tears...did not make it) Sad

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February 05, 2018, 05:56:14 AM


Can't wait to see BTrashcash under $1K for good  Wink

That lost $ could boost BTC 10%
JayJuanGee
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February 05, 2018, 06:33:42 AM

Guys

Have a plan for both $100k and $100.   Both are possible.  

That is all.

o.k... even though I agree, now you are going overboard, Hairy... ..     Angry Angry Angry

What are the odds of $1k or below in the next 5 years?  5%?  less?

Now what are the odds of $100 in the next 5 years?  .5%  less?

What are the odds of $100k in the next 5 years?  5%  more?  10%, perhaps?
JayJuanGee
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February 05, 2018, 06:39:57 AM


Can't wait to see BTrashcash under $1K for good  Wink

That lost $ could boost BTC 10%

you know that rumor is that Bcash is pee paring for a mid-February pump, so I am not sure if going below $1k would be for good for them.
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February 05, 2018, 06:57:09 AM

Who's selling at these prices and why?

More importantly, who's not buying at these prices and why?


Shaking the tree some more.


Shake


Shake


Shake






Anything there?











Shake


Shake


Shake

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3fZuW-aJsg
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February 05, 2018, 06:58:39 AM

Guys

Have a plan for both $100k and $100.   Both are possible.  

That is all.

Too right - in crypto, you need to be prepared for anything...
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February 05, 2018, 06:59:26 AM

Guys

Have a plan for both $100k and $100.   Both are possible.  

That is all.

If 100 buy more if 100k mine more.
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February 05, 2018, 07:03:53 AM


But what if the “you” and “we” are a lot smaller then you think?
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February 05, 2018, 07:04:21 AM
Last edit: February 05, 2018, 07:18:57 AM by HairyMaclairy
Merited by jbreher (1), micgoossens (1), AZwarel (1)

Guys

Have a plan for both $100k and $100.   Both are possible.  

That is all.

o.k... even though I agree, now you are going overboard, Hairy... ..     Angry Angry Angry

What are the odds of $1k or below in the next 5 years?  5%?  less?

Now what are the odds of $100 in the next 5 years?  .5%  less?

What are the odds of $100k in the next 5 years?  5%  more?  10%, perhaps?

We need to stop thinking of Bitcoin price in terms of $ and think of it in terms of time.   Can the Bitcoin price go backwards 8 weeks to $19k?  Yes it can, easily.  Can the Bitcoin price go back 5 months to September 2017 when it was $3k?  Yes, it can, September was not long ago.  Can it go back 12 months to February 2017 when it was $800?  Much much harder but still definitely possible.  Can it go back 2.5 years to August 2015 when it was $198?  Ok this is impossible.

So you are right, I agree no chance of $100.  But there is a risk of 3 digit Bitcoin that I think would cause everyone in this thread to pee blood.  I think this is a low chance but higher than 5%.  February 2017 was not so long ago.  So we must plan and be prepared for all eventualities.  

As I post this, we are under $8k in price and have weak volume.  I am not happy about this I can only read what the chart says.  In time terms, we are currently at November 23 2017 and walking backwards.  September 2017 ($3k) is only 2.5 more months of backwards walking.

I have made my peace and will ride my current stack into the ground if necessary.  To do otherwise would expose me to an unacceptable risk of being left behind when the market snaps back.   I will also buy but not until the market has bled much much more or we have truly broken the downward trend.
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