Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kurious]

(snip....)

The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?

This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question.  But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to.

Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat.  But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy.  Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in.

For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically.

Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge.  And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it.

I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!).   I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out.  I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to).

I will say this:

With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies:

1.  Gut feeling  (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference')

2.  Listening to Tera.

Well, while you can't predict where in a given pattern we are at any given moment, you can use historical data to get a probability of certain patterns unfolding on different time scales. And to be profitable all it takes is to be right just over 50% of the time, which is something that isn't extremely difficult in inefficient markets. That does take a very specific toolset though, so it's not for everyone by default, although the required skills can be acquired by anyone. The problem is that figuring out the details takes a very long time, and humans are pretty dreadful when it comes to long-term planning.

I think what d_eddie was quite reasonably asking was 'what can we learn so that can we see the big stuff coming in future', since most here did not.

I use TA and in normal conditions I can trade with enough edge for it to work well enough to be worthwhile, after five years, I ought to have learned something - but I didn't know where the top was, and I am not totally certain BTC has bottomed out.  To be really good, you need to sell all at the precise top, and then buy it back at the absolute bottom.  

I doubt anyone actually did.

Perfection is not possible, but getting closer to it is a noble and sensible quest.

Without investing tons of time, treat it like anything else: copy a pro, and fake it til you make it.  TERA is a pro.  Max gains is not realistic - selling too soon for GOOD gains flat out destroys panic selling on the way down, over the long term.  You might catch a top or a bottom just right here or there, but never enough to beat the average of always good.  

Yup, I agree. And I saw TERA slammed in '13 and again this time around.  

She gets closer than most, so people like her and Aminorex I tend to listen to carefully.  It's at least nudged me towards making a couple of investment decisions I have benefited from enormously.  You are of course well aware of what one of them was

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[HairyMaclairy]

Im bearish because of futures expiry in 5 days on 14 Feb. Something to keep in mind.

[JayJuanGee]

Can't you program your trading bots to do whatever you want, or does it depend on the bot and how good you are at programing?

Yes you can. You also have different bots for different market conditions. ei  p&d bot, bear market bot..sideways bot...what ever. Machine learning algo's can be added so the bot gets better over time. Here is a simple bot written in php. Scripts are pretty easy to craft with a little homework.

Code:

<?php
$apikey='{insert_your_api_key}';
$apisecret='{insert_your_api_secret}';
function bittrexbalance($apikey, $apisecret){
    $nonce=time();
    $uri='https://bittrex.com/api/v1.1/account/getbalance?apikey='.$apikey.'&currency=BTC&nonce='.$nonce;
    $sign=hash_hmac('sha512',$uri,$apisecret);
    $ch = curl_init($uri);
        curl_setopt($ch, CURLOPT_HTTPHEADER, array('apisign:'.$sign));
        curl_setopt($ch, CURLOPT_RETURNTRANSFER, true);
    $execResult = curl_exec($ch);
    $obj = json_decode($execResult, true);
    $balance = $obj["result"]["Available"];
    return $balance;
}
function bittrexbuy($apikey, $apisecret, $symbol, $quant, $rate){
    $nonce=time();
    $uri='https://bittrex.com/api/v1.1/market/buylimit?apikey='.$apikey.'&market=BTC-'.$symbol.'&quantity='.$quant.'&rate='.$rate.'&nonce='.$nonce;
    $sign=hash_hmac('sha512',$uri,$apisecret);
    $ch = curl_init($uri);
        curl_setopt($ch, CURLOPT_HTTPHEADER, array('apisign:'.$sign));
    $execResult = curl_exec($ch);
    $obj = json_decode($execResult, true);
    return $obj;
}
//fetch top 50 cryptos by marketcap
$cnmkt = "https://api.coinmarketcap.com/v1/ticker/?limit=50";
$fgc = json_decode(file_get_contents($cnmkt), true);
$counter = 0;
for($i=0;$i<50;$i++){
    if($counter < 3){
        //check percentage change over last 7 days
        $percCng = $fgc[$i]["percent_change_7d"];
        if($percCng < 4 && $percCng > -4){
            $symbol = $fgc[$i]["symbol"];
            $cost = $fgc[$i]["price_btc"];
            //fetch bittrex btc balance
            $balance = bittrexbalance($apikey, $apisecret);
            //calc 1/5th of available
            $fifthBal = $balance / 5;
            //calc how much coin to buy
            $amounttobuy = $fifthBal / $cost;
            $buy = bittrexbuy($apikey, $apisecret, $symbol, $amounttobuy, $cost);
            print_r($buy);
            $counter++;
        }
    }
}
?>

The meme should say: 
"I should buy a bot... "

[svdleer]

The weekend is coming again, expecting to retest 7K

[Toxic2040]

The meme should say: 
"I should buy a bot... "

[JayJuanGee]

The meme should say: 
"I should buy a bot... "

hahahahahaha....


Could only dream... and then have to enroll in bot programing lessons and hopefully not screw up the bot set up parameters too much... .

Finally build up a BTC portfolio of 10 coins, and then lose 9 of them because of a programming "glitch"

[bitcoinPsycho]

The weekend is coming again, expecting to retest 7K

[sirazimuth]

Guys come on. Nobody gives a crap about IQ debates, pen, or other stuff.
Just go there for that : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=9.0

 I disagree.  I love pens.  Look at this one:

The Lighthouse of Alexandria



by Pelikan

You know today is gonna be exciting. When The Wall starts talking about pens.

 I'm excited.
4

Are they available at  penisland.com ?        (actual website that sold pens, aka "Pen Island")

[Toxic2040]

hahahahahaha....

Could only dream... and then have to enroll in bot programing lessons and hopefully not screw up the bot set up parameters too much... .

Finally build up a BTC portfolio of 10 coins, and then lose 9 of them because of a programming "glitch"

Bullshit..you CAN do it. It is very simple...can even compile and run in windoz if thats your fancy..the bot above is profitable in most markets and is 20 lines of code. I am to paranoid to let scripts run unattended..but..it can be done with phone based apps pretty easy. You dont have to pay for the utility of having a bot run your portfolio. A little research and within a day you can have one up and running.

[starmman]

I don't risk bots, just leave buys low and then sells triggered a little higher (or vice versa) to catch a few hundred here and there on volatility overnight, or when I am away from the screen for a while (like when I remember I have a life).

Mainly because you wake up and it's been down and up, but instead of missing it - you've bought a coin, and sold it again and have a few more dollars to buy more BTC on the next dip (or conversely you can set up to sell on the next rise and auto-buy back) if the price leaps up, you don't have to have sells set up.  Or you can set up the other way if you think it's bouncing up.  Right now it's moving around more often than it's moving up to new levels.

Works for me.  It's fluctuating and I am trying to accumulate.  The Stamp chaining cannot buy 1.0 and sell 0.97 at the higher price though, so it's not a way to accumulate coin, only USD - which is not my preference.  I basically use it to play small 200 - 400 USD undulations based upon my preferred MA and lines.  If I buy one under the price while I sleep, cool.  If it flipped up and that coin I wasn't expecting got sold - leaving a profit, fine.

On the way down it helped me not to sob over my stash devaluation to have a play stash aiming at getting more coin.  It saved my sanity to have little victories in the carnage. And I made my cash last longer and got more coin for when it turns.

I'm running bots - but ended up writing my own to suit my trading strategy, that said - I didn't get it to work well on BTC/USD so use it to accumulate BTC by trading alt coins. I usually trade BTC/USD manually

Can't you program your trading bots to do whatever you want, or does it depend on the bot and how good you are at programing?

You need to be okay at programming, or good if you want a sustainable solution (I've gone for the sustainable option), more important is understanding your trading strategy on a mathematical level.

I can write the bots to do what I like, however I find BTC/USD to be a bit too unpredictable - so I tend to adapt my strategy depending upon market conditions, otherwise I could easily end up out of the market. my strategies are failrly complex - and the time I have to program isn't too much, so always late to the party on BTC/USD, however I guess that I have a nice collection of strategies together now.

[orpington]

Guys come on. Nobody gives a crap about IQ debates, pen, or other stuff.
Just go there for that : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=9.0

 I disagree.  I love pens.  Look at this one:

The Lighthouse of Alexandria



by Pelikan

You know today is gonna be exciting. When The Wall starts talking about pens.

 I'm excited.
4

Are they available at  penisland.com ?        (actual website that sold pens, aka "Pen Island")

Yeah. Have fun in Penisland.

[sirazimuth]

from looks of it...
it had to of come from Penisland....

[Toxic2040]

What if Elon Musk just committed the perfect murder?


 

[El duderino_]

What if Elon Musk just committed the perfect murder?


 

That would really be something ..... movie material

[bitserve]

What if Elon Musk just committed the perfect murder?


 

That would really be something ..... movie material

What an epic opportunity lost to send a Bitcoin paperwallet beyond Mars inside the Tesla's glove box compartment.

[Last of the V8s]

oh fuck

where IS Rosewater?

and speaking of brown pants...when was the last BMB sighting?

[the artful bodger]

The weekend is coming again, expecting to retest 7K

Sometimes it goes up, not down at the weekend. We could be retesting 9k by Sunday. All the dumpers mightbe waiting to buy back in.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

What if Elon Musk just committed the perfect murder?


 

That would really be something ..... movie material

Would be a premise so much better than whatever came out of Hollywood in the past god knows how many years.

[Rosewater Foundation]

oh fuck

where IS Rosewater?

and speaking of brown pants...when was the last BMB sighting?

I was thinking to bring the mayor out just to distribute his wealth of spendable merits. But that crash broke my heart. So I've been drinking.

[fragout]

The weekend is coming again, expecting to retest 7K

Sometimes it goes up, not down at the weekend. We could be retesting 9k by Sunday. All the dumpers mightbe waiting to buy back in.

True but im not liking the build up on stamp on the sell side. Up a 1000btc from yesterday to 6500btc and the buy side down $15 million.
Its not a true indicator of course, but it was like this all during the last slide