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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 22 (18.2%)
1-10% - 16 (13.2%)
11-20% - 15 (12.4%)
21-30% - 17 (14%)
31-40% - 6 (5%)
41-50% - 12 (9.9%)
51-60% - 9 (7.4%)
61-70% - 5 (4.1%)
71-80% - 4 (3.3%)
81-90% - 2 (1.7%)
91-99% - 3 (2.5%)
100% - 10 (8.3%)
Total Voters: 121

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21786102 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
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February 12, 2018, 05:16:06 PM

So, initial impressions of Lightning after a few days of puttering around, and throwing 0.3 some-odd BTC at funding channels.

"Ain't nobody gonna get rich running a node"

Was mentioning to my partner this morning, "I'm not sure this project is worth it"

The tech is kinda neato, tho, I guess.

I think I'm technically losing BTC right now fucking around with Lightning.

Anyway, off to see what the herd is up to.

Fuck this cold. Shit startin' to irritate me, yo. Ain't built for this weather.

Can't believe I'm two weeks away from submitting my resignation.

Thanks for the follow up on your experience as a LN node.

I've got a few questions...

When you say it is not worth it, I think you mean that you don't see it is something that it is going to have an interesting ROI for you as an intermediary node... but you mean now, medium term or also in the future?

How is that you are technically losing BTC rigt now? Have you experienced some direct loss of BTC? (something which has been well advised by developers at current stage though).

I would be glad if by summer this year there is some real life usage of LN. For that we would need at least a very few early adopters retailers, exchanges, atm networks even if a very small minority. Not sure if I am being too optimistic with that target. What's you opinion about it?

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February 12, 2018, 05:17:01 PM
Last edit: February 12, 2018, 05:39:19 PM by Nosk

We don't need to mimic the human brain perfectly. Humans simply don't compare to specific task algorithms. [...] There is no compelling reason to create a carbon copy of the human brain for this specific purpose
Never argued the opposite. As I said, the current state of the art in machine learning doesn't do it and works fine (for a certain number of use cases).


Quote
All it takes to trump us is connecting modules together whilst allowing for the creation of new ones by the algorithm itself. And as I've mentioned, the first algorithms to create code already exist. So either of higher computational power or more efficient algorithms should be enough and reality both of these will get satisfied over time.

I'm not really aware of the literature about generated code but I highly doubt that algorithm created code is THE key to sentient machines.

Quote
We didn't copy birds or fishes either to fly in the skies or swim through the oceans either

No we didn't, but we just did like nature did for birds and fishes. Test, fail and try again.

Quote
and we're significantly better at both of these tasks.

Hell no we are not. It is like saying that machine are better at nailing stuff because they can nail much bigger stuff or much smaller stuff. Or better at math because they can do incredibly fast calculation. Yet, no machine ever won a nobel prize. As I said, living things are infinitely better, much more efficient, etc... (organic) machines than the one we can create.
Computer science coupled to engineering make marvelous things to help human, but they are still tools and will remain tools until a looooong time.

Quote
algorithmic trading with Machine Learning works so well compared to traditional and commercially available trading bots

I'd love to see that. (No seriously, I'd really love to see that. Time series analysis are part of my studies. Plus, I'm quite bad at trading)
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February 12, 2018, 05:25:36 PM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

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UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK !!!

Where is this week bringing us ...?, Lets all hodl bitcoin and be ready for a bright future ....
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February 12, 2018, 05:28:30 PM

oh god guys

I just woke up from this dream where coinbase had surprise listed some shitcoin I had never heard of from like 200 down the list.

so relieved right now

LOL... a lot of people (including me) are getting similar dreams these days... Bitcoin is sometimes $100,000 in my dream and sometimes $100... But then, right after waking up, when I open Delta/Blockfolio, the situation is like this:

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February 12, 2018, 05:33:06 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

oh god guys

I just woke up from this dream where coinbase had surprise listed some shitcoin I had never heard of from like 200 down the list.

so relieved right now

LOL... a lot of people (including me) are getting similar dreams these days... Bitcoin is sometimes $100,000 in my dream and sometimes $100... But then, right after waking up, when I open Delta/Blockfolio, the situation is like this:

[img]http://image.boomsbeat.com/data/images/full/174963/mr-bean-the-exam-jpg.jpg[/img
really .. I look at the 1 year chart an have to pinch myself to make sure it's not a dream
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February 12, 2018, 05:34:58 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Bouncing along sideways I see.... currently $8720USD/$11000CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

The buying opportunity continues but these 4-digit prices won't last forever.

I'll need to buy about $15kCAD in late March. I hope I don't have to spend a whole bitcoin to do it.

Gawd, I hate spending Bitcoin. Coins are for holding, not spending.
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February 12, 2018, 05:36:47 PM

When you say it is not worth it, I think you mean that you don't see it is something that it is going to have an interesting ROI for you as an intermediary node... but you mean now, medium term or also in the future?

There seems to be a cost to open a channel, and it appears that it's not worth it, just opening channels willy-nilly right now.

eg: I'll fund a channel with 1,000,000 SAT.

When the channel closes, for whatever reason, listfunds reveals I have a balance of 999,085 on my end.

Opening/closing a channel is done by a bitcoin transaction on bitcoin network. Haven't you heard of bitcoin tx fees?
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February 12, 2018, 05:42:40 PM
Merited by Karartma1 (1)

Bitfury:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/bitcoin-chip-battle-brewing-behind-hut-8-s-canadian-listing
A new stock listing in Canada will soon give investors their first chance to buy into the booming market for computer chips driving most of the world’s bitcoin mining farms.
 ... Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu didn’t respond to requests seeking comment.
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February 12, 2018, 05:52:23 PM

Opening/closing a channel is done by a bitcoin transaction on bitcoin network. Haven't you heard of bitcoin tx fees?

Yes yes, I know... which is why I'm admitting my initial experiments with going hog-wild funding channels, willy-nilly, was an ill-conceived idea.

Going to need to re-think the game-theory of this.

Isn't there a way to share the fees for using your intermediary node as it is suppossed to be, or do you mean your own channels you open for yourselve?

I wouln't be surprised if the "cost sharing" algorithm isn't implemented yet, but I assumed it was.
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February 12, 2018, 06:02:17 PM

I guess nobody cares about this: http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/11/investing/lagarde-bitcoin-regulation/index.html

Wow was 8000 the new bottom retest?

Where’s Smokey the Bear?

Maybe that IMF statement was too pathetic sounding?
Why would anybody give a rat's ass about regulation when decentralized exchanges are on the horizon? For the very first time in history regulators won't be able to dictate their rule upon citizens.

Yea that sounds very interesting i’ll have to read about what that means... how they work etc.
It means that they can't be taken down, because just like Bitcoin they would be a distributed peer to peer platform. The details are more complex, with atomic swaps and whatnot, but basically you'd be trading with people directly via smart contracts, which would actually be safer than traditional exchanges as well due to the abolishment of counterparty risk (as long as there's no Parity style fuck ups).

I looked into it a bit and it looks awesome. But I’m still not sure how you get fiat in and out of the exchange if it’s decentralized. Sure u can do p2p fiat transactions like on localbitcoin but beyond that I don’t see how u could cash out so easily unless u find one person who wants all your coin ur selling. 
bitserve
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February 12, 2018, 06:06:35 PM

Bitfury:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/bitcoin-chip-battle-brewing-behind-hut-8-s-canadian-listing
A new stock listing in Canada will soon give investors their first chance to buy into the booming market for computer chips driving most of the world’s bitcoin mining farms.
 ... Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu didn’t respond to requests seeking comment.


That sound like very good news but... I have never really understood what Bitfury really does.... Everyone and their mother have a Bitmain miner, but... anyone does have a Bitfury miner? What are the specs?
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February 12, 2018, 06:21:33 PM

Bitfury:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/bitcoin-chip-battle-brewing-behind-hut-8-s-canadian-listing
A new stock listing in Canada will soon give investors their first chance to buy into the booming market for computer chips driving most of the world’s bitcoin mining farms.
 ... Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu didn’t respond to requests seeking comment.


That sound like very good news but... I have never really understood what Bitfury really does.... Everyone and their mother have a Bitmain miner, but... anyone does have a Bitfury miner? What are the specs?

No for a long time now they've only sold to corporates, or rather in bulk. By the container load. Sometimes their other projects are a bit mysterious - maybe it's comms problems - like they made the cops some chain analysis stuff.
edit: looking around, there were a few smaller projects using their chips recently, but basically they haven't dealt with little sods like us for a while now. v. sensible
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February 12, 2018, 06:22:47 PM
Merited by Wekkel (1)

Trying to clarify this prediction more (which, until now, was accurate) :

Here, some graph to support my earlier post (sorry I'll talk in €).

So this is how uncertain we are (and yup, that's some sort of symetry we have here since the bullrun).
My prediction is, if we break the 7k€ resistance, we will go pretty much straight to the next ~9k€ resistance zone, maybe in the top of it, or maybe break it and go beyond.
We may stay in this resistance for some time.
If we bounce, from the 7k€ resistance, we may go back go 5k€ and bounce again (unlikely, given the volume we had sub 5k€).

Here you go



The price didn't bounced off the 7k€ resistance.
I took the period of high volume, determined the min and max moving average of the price, and it highlights some resistance we can find.
Taking that into account, it makes me more bullish for what will come next.
(following chart is still in €)

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February 12, 2018, 06:38:34 PM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       
snip
UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK !!!

Where is this week bringing us ...?, Lets all hodl bitcoin and be ready for a bright future ....
May I please get September 1st 2018? Nobody got September and I love September. Since I am a latecomer I will donate the entire sum if it happens to be me. Sounds good?
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February 12, 2018, 06:42:59 PM

I guess nobody cares about this: http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/11/investing/lagarde-bitcoin-regulation/index.html

Wow was 8000 the new bottom retest?

Where’s Smokey the Bear?

Maybe that IMF statement was too pathetic sounding?
Why would anybody give a rat's ass about regulation when decentralized exchanges are on the horizon? For the very first time in history regulators won't be able to dictate their rule upon citizens.

Yea that sounds very interesting i’ll have to read about what that means... how they work etc.
It means that they can't be taken down, because just like Bitcoin they would be a distributed peer to peer platform. The details are more complex, with atomic swaps and whatnot, but basically you'd be trading with people directly via smart contracts, which would actually be safer than traditional exchanges as well due to the abolishment of counterparty risk (as long as there's no Parity style fuck ups).

I looked into it a bit and it looks awesome. But I’m still not sure how you get fiat in and out of the exchange if it’s decentralized. Sure u can do p2p fiat transactions like on localbitcoin but beyond that I don’t see how u could cash out so easily unless u find one person who wants all your coin ur selling. 

I think it will be more like a decentralized Tether where you will do p2p like localbitcoins to get your crypto-fiat, but from there you can participate in crypto exchanges just as if you were on a regular exchange. Most people only put their money on the exchange or take it off once in a while. The p2p transactions would not be too frequent in that case.
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February 12, 2018, 06:45:26 PM

Bitfury:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/bitcoin-chip-battle-brewing-behind-hut-8-s-canadian-listing
A new stock listing in Canada will soon give investors their first chance to buy into the booming market for computer chips driving most of the world’s bitcoin mining farms.
 ... Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu didn’t respond to requests seeking comment.


That sound like very good news but... I have never really understood what Bitfury really does.... Everyone and their mother have a Bitmain miner, but... anyone does have a Bitfury miner? What are the specs?

No for a long time now they've only sold to corporates, or rather in bulk. By the container load. Sometimes their other projects are a bit mysterious - maybe it's comms problems - like they made the cops some chain analysis stuff.
edit: looking around, there were a few smaller projects using their chips recently, but basically they haven't dealt with little sods like us for a while now. v. sensible

Ok, but.. are their chips for real? Where can i find an analisys/review of any of them? I find it very suspecting the lack of information about their operations. Don't get me wrong, I consider Bifury one of the good "actors" here. I just would like to know more about them.
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February 12, 2018, 06:51:02 PM

https://markets.bisq.network/

bisq does fiat and is what they're calling a 'decentralized exchange'
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February 12, 2018, 06:59:37 PM

I sold some Bitcoin for a couple of $100s of USDT, just to be sure that we reach $9k-10k soon  Grin
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February 12, 2018, 06:59:58 PM
Last edit: February 12, 2018, 07:10:23 PM by Last of the V8s
Merited by bitserve (1)

Bitfury:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/bitcoin-chip-battle-brewing-behind-hut-8-s-canadian-listing
A new stock listing in Canada will soon give investors their first chance to buy into the booming market for computer chips driving most of the world’s bitcoin mining farms.
 ... Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu didn’t respond to requests seeking comment.


That sound like very good news but... I have never really understood what Bitfury really does.... Everyone and their mother have a Bitmain miner, but... anyone does have a Bitfury miner? What are the specs?

No for a long time now they've only sold to corporates, or rather in bulk. By the container load. Sometimes their other projects are a bit mysterious - maybe it's comms problems - like they made the cops some chain analysis stuff.
edit: looking around, there were a few smaller projects using their chips recently edit link added https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1651958.msg17187794#msg17187794, but basically they haven't dealt with little sods like us for a while now. v. sensible

Ok, but.. are their chips for real? Where can i find an analisys/review of any of them? I find it very suspecting the lack of information about their operations. Don't get me wrong, I consider Bifury one of the good "actors" here. I just would like to know more about them.

more mystery yes. they're real. (wasn't ghash.io originally powered by aging bitfury gear?)
We invite you to watch our video of the new 16nm chip! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zPpj1JYw38

This is first out of 3 videos in series about our new 16nm Bitcoin Mining ASIC where we demonstrate the low power performance of the chip. Notice that there is no heat sink attached. In the next videos we will demonstrate high power performance and higher hash rate that can be achieved by using a heat sink.

We expect mining devices with the 16nm chip to start appearing on the market as soon as by the end of March 2016.

Please beware of scammers and check our website for listing of confirmed integrator and reseller partners. We will be listing them in the coming weeks.
You vill vatch our wideos. Specially for you.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1360038.0 funny thread
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072425.0 light bulb mining
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February 12, 2018, 07:04:35 PM

I sold some Bitcoin for a couple of $100s of USDT, just to be sure that we reach $9k-10k soon  Grin

thanks for your sacrifice Smiley
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