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Question: Closing BTC Price June 17:
$0 - 4 (3%)
<$6,500 - 7 (5.3%)
$6,500-$6,750 - 1 (0.8%)
$6,751-$7,000 - 2 (1.5%)
$7,001-$7,250 - 3 (2.3%)
$7,251-$7,500 - 6 (4.5%)
$7,501-$7,750 - 4 (3%)
$7,751-$8,000 - 12 (9.1%)
$8,001-$8,250 - 13 (9.8%)
$8,251-$8,500 - 7 (5.3%)
$8,501-$8,750 - 6 (4.5%)
$8,751-$9,000 - 11 (8.3%)
$9,001,$9,250 - 13 (9.8%)
$9,251-$9,500 - 17 (12.9%)
>$9,500 - 17 (12.9%)
$20,000 - 9 (6.8%)
Total Voters: 132

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21226406 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (64 posts by 15 users deleted.)
bitserve
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February 12, 2018, 11:13:40 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

Ratio of BFX longs to shorts is at ATH (blue line is longs v shorts).  Longs outnumber shorts 3.7:1


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Can you explain whats going on here? to the stupid lol..


I certainly don't know what is going on, either.  

My understanding is that if there is so much confidence that BTC price are going up, and a large number of traders are betting margin longs, then that creates a really LARGE incentive for bearwhales to push the price in the opposite direction to force the longs to close.  

Accordingly, the forcing of the longs to close can then cause a cascading effect that allows for the bears to make much more money than it costs them to push the price down.

On the other hand, if the large number of traders betting for BTC prices to go UP are correct, then the ones betting on UP make a lot of money in that direction too....   I think that ultimately the considerably large ratio of longs to shorts does not tell us the price direction; however, it does likely tell us that in order to get BTC prices to move in either direction, there is going to be a necessity to spend a considerable amount of value in this price range to battle for your preferred direction.. which signifies a need for a decent amount of volume to get the BTC price to move either direction based on the way that the bets are currently laid.  

TLDR:  Seems that we are in a critical battle price range....

Yep, that's it. The more shorts there are, the more cascading effect we can have on the upside. Consider it sorta a multiplier.

The opposite is also true for margin longs and dumps.

It doesn't mean it cannot rise... in fact, sometimes it just means the situation is so clear that noone dares to short but... for an explosive rise the more shorts being rekt, the better.

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February 12, 2018, 11:41:02 PM

Ratio of BFX longs to shorts is at ATH (blue line is longs v shorts).  Longs outnumber shorts 3.7:1


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That is the ratio.

With the corporate accounts being closed out they are closing their shorts.

There might be one guy going long at $100 vs someone going short $5 with what's left.
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February 12, 2018, 11:59:03 PM
Merited by jojo69 (1), Nosk (1)

Earlier, the head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Agustin Carstens said bitcoin is “a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster,” calling central banks to crack down on cryptocurrencies.

                                                                                    Agustin_Carstens




Lol, calling something an environmental disaster when he is that size.
There's the Real BubbleTM  Pop that fucker!
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February 13, 2018, 12:07:32 AM

I think this time it's gonna break it.
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February 13, 2018, 12:16:13 AM
Last edit: February 13, 2018, 01:15:50 AM by marcus_of_augustus



freeloads piggybacking threat to financial stability a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster

so funny ... central piggybanker economist freeloader controlling the biggeest fiat pwnzee scheme in history is blind to his own plight.

bears make money, bulls money, pigs get slaughtered, this is guy is definitely the new fall guy for the coming BIS banking failure ... what happens when BIS is bankrupt?
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February 13, 2018, 12:21:47 AM
Last edit: February 13, 2018, 12:41:37 AM by mymenace



freeloads piggybacking threat to financial stability a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster

so funny ... central piggybanker economist freeloader controlling the biggeest fiat pwnzee scheme in history is blind to his own plight.

bears make money, bulls money, pigs get slaughtered, this is guy is definitely the new fall guy for the coming BIS banking failure ... what happens when BIS is bankrupt?

                                                                                    Agustin_Carstens



made me laugh "pigs get slaughtered", reminds me of the kodak story and their hidden digital tech never to be released


a complete change, replaced the old with the new
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February 13, 2018, 12:40:41 AM
Merited by suchmoon (1), Torque (1), Last of the V8s (1)

The chart I posted shows almost 4x more people are borrowing to bet that BTC will go up compared to people borrowing to bet that the price will go down.

I use this as a measure of sentiment and view it as bullish. But it can also go badly wrong. If the bears can fight against the tide and force the price downwards, they could start a cascade which would force the bulls out of their positions at a loss and trigger a massive price spike downwards.   

Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close. Corporate accounts tend to be short bitcoin.  So this could just mean the underlying mix of players is changing with no change in sentiment. Hard to evaluate without further information.
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February 13, 2018, 12:51:44 AM

Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close.

Wha? They can do that?
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February 13, 2018, 12:55:32 AM

It’s their exchange. They can do whatever they like. 

That said I did a quick google and am seeing conflicting reports about corporate accounts on BFX.  Maybe Elwar can clarify.
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February 13, 2018, 12:57:43 AM


freeloads piggybacking threat to financial stability a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster

so funny ... central piggybanker economist freeloader controlling the biggeest fiat pwnzee scheme in history is blind to his own plight.

bears make money, bulls money, pigs get slaughtered, this is guy is definitely the new fall guy for the coming BIS banking failure ... what happens when BIS is bankrupt?


made me laugh "pigs get slaughtered", reminds me of the kodak story and their hidden digital tech never to be released


a complete change, replaced the old with the new

Could anyone clarify if debt would be wiped if your bank is bankrupt?

only rationale I have for booming stock market, low liquidity, record tax cuts, trillion dollar debt and trillion dollar budget

spend it all now before you bankrupt
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February 13, 2018, 01:06:59 AM
Last edit: February 13, 2018, 01:17:34 AM by marcus_of_augustus
Merited by d_eddie (1)

Could anyone clarify if debt would be wiped if your bank is bankrupt

debts like that never really die, they get zombified into 'non-performing loans' and sold on for cents on the dollar to the liquidating entity of the bust enterprise. Really big enterprises it gets rolled into govt. debt and shuffled around onto central bank balance sheets where it withers and shrivels up over decades as inflation erodes the principal value away as they "print money" to cover the problems.

Some South Sea debt from early 1700's is still on the books of the government of UK (or is it the BoE?) ... also WW1 debts and depression era, WWII bonds, etc is still floating around getting traded at cents on the dollar or pennies on the pound as the case maybe.

tl;dr ... if your bank goes bust you'll probably still owe 'someone' something depending who buys the bank's loan book, what currency the loan is denominated in, and if it is worth their while chasing you down for repayment(s)
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February 13, 2018, 01:09:01 AM

It’s their exchange. They can do whatever they like. 

That said I did a quick google and am seeing conflicting reports about corporate accounts on BFX.  Maybe Elwar can clarify.

american accounts only as far as i can tell.
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February 13, 2018, 01:13:01 AM

I might be mistaken about bisq position in the BCH affair. Here's what I wrote.

https://markets.bisq.network/

bisq does fiat and is what they're calling a 'decentralized exchange'

Bisq does p2p matching much like localbitcoins. They use their app to match people and one or two guys act as arbitrators in case of dispute.

The idea is that there will be many arbitrators but when you look closer, it's basically the two guys that created the software. That's how they make money on it. Certainly a step in the right direction.
Bisq jumped on the BCH bandwagon during the fork trouble. Let's not forget that.

I was sure I read something - on their front page, on their mailing list or somewhere else - to the effect that they were supporting BCH. It might have been a list of NY Agreement signatories?
However, I received a PM by one of our active members who did some research and couldn't find anything about that.

So I'm doubtful now. Any additional info could be useful to set this straight.
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February 13, 2018, 01:21:34 AM

There's the Real BubbleTM  Pop that fucker!

Hahaahaha I lost my shit
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February 13, 2018, 01:21:55 AM

The chart I posted shows almost 4x more people are borrowing to bet that BTC will go up compared to people borrowing to bet that the price will go down.

I use this as a measure of sentiment and view it as bullish. But it can also go badly wrong. If the bears can fight against the tide and force the price downwards, they could start a cascade which would force the bulls out of their positions at a loss and trigger a massive price spike downwards.   

Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close. Corporate accounts tend to be short bitcoin.  So this could just mean the underlying mix of players is changing with no change in sentiment. Hard to evaluate without further information.

That may be true, but compare that to a typical stock. The number of short investors is actually never *greater* than 25%. So by that measure, 25% betting that the price of BTC will go down is actually extremely bearish.
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February 13, 2018, 01:23:02 AM

Could anyone clarify if debt would be wiped if your bank is bankrupt

debts like that never really die, they get zombified into 'non-performing loans' and sold on for cents on the dollar to the liquidating entity of the bust enterprise. Really big enterprises it gets rolled into govt. debt and shuffled around onto central bank balance sheets where it withers and shrivels up over decades as inflation erodes the principal value away as they "print money" to cover the problems.

Some South Sea debt from early 1700's is still on the books of the government of UK (or is it the BoE?) ... also WW1 debts and depression era, WWII bonds, etc is still floating around getting traded at cents on the dollar or pennies on the pound as the case maybe.

tl;dr ... if your bank goes bust you'll probably still owe 'someone' something depending who buys the bank's loan book, what currency the loan is denominated in, and if it is worth their while chasing you down for repayment(s)

that's understandable

interesting though to see if it would really apply to government debt in the case of BIS going bankrupt

nations agreeably removing nation debt and exchanging currency freely.
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February 13, 2018, 01:27:03 AM

The chart I posted shows almost 4x more people are borrowing to bet that BTC will go up compared to people borrowing to bet that the price will go down.

I use this as a measure of sentiment and view it as bullish. But it can also go badly wrong. If the bears can fight against the tide and force the price downwards, they could start a cascade which would force the bulls out of their positions at a loss and trigger a massive price spike downwards.   

Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close. Corporate accounts tend to be short bitcoin.  So this could just mean the underlying mix of players is changing with no change in sentiment. Hard to evaluate without further information.

That may be true, but compare that to a typical stock. The number of short investors is actually never *greater* than 25%. So by that measure, 25% betting that the price of BTC will go down is actually extremely bearish.
But this is crypto. Analogies with the stock market are often misleading and always risky.
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February 13, 2018, 01:34:24 AM

The chart I posted shows almost 4x more people are borrowing to bet that BTC will go up compared to people borrowing to bet that the price will go down.

I use this as a measure of sentiment and view it as bullish. But it can also go badly wrong. If the bears can fight against the tide and force the price downwards, they could start a cascade which would force the bulls out of their positions at a loss and trigger a massive price spike downwards.   

Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close. Corporate accounts tend to be short bitcoin.  So this could just mean the underlying mix of players is changing with no change in sentiment. Hard to evaluate without further information.

That may be true, but compare that to a typical stock. The number of short investors is actually never *greater* than 25%. So by that measure, 25% betting that the price of BTC will go down is actually extremely bearish.
But this is crypto. Analogies with the stock market are often misleading and always risky.

The chart indicates a more “normal” ratio is about 1.5:1 for BTC.  But it only goes back about 6 months
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February 13, 2018, 01:34:53 AM
Merited by jojo69 (1)

snip ... more people are borrowing to bet BTC ... snip ... people borrowing to bet BTC ....

... I think I may have found the fundamental problem in the risk analysis logic here?

Borrowing to bet on a limited-issuance, near instantly redeemable, bearer instrument is extreme risk-taking by any measures.

Discussing how fast the bamboo and rice paper building will burn when doused in gasoline is fun but kind of misses the point that there are children playing with matches in the crawl space.
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February 13, 2018, 01:41:34 AM

It’s their exchange. They can do whatever they like. 

That said I did a quick google and am seeing conflicting reports about corporate accounts on BFX.  Maybe Elwar can clarify.

american accounts only as far as i can tell.

This is what I read here.
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