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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 32 (28.8%)
2020 - 42 (37.8%)
2021 - 28 (25.2%)
2022 - 5 (4.5%)
2023 - 1 (0.9%)
Never - 3 (2.7%)
Total Voters: 111

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21172670 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (23 posts by 12 users deleted.)
BTCMILLIONAIRE
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February 18, 2018, 01:27:22 AM

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.
Good job you can still remember it!

I'm honestly beginning to fear that my retirement years are going to be spent running out first thing in the morning for a covfefe and 6 pack of beer, and loafing in this thread all day.
I fail to see the problem.
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gentlemand
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February 18, 2018, 01:29:17 AM
Merited by sirazimuth (1), BobLawblaw (1), BTCMILLIONAIRE (1)

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.
Good job you can still remember it!

I'm honestly beginning to fear that my retirement years are going to be spent running out first thing in the morning for a covfefe and 6 pack of beer, and loafing in this thread all day.
I fail to see the problem.

It will be an education as The People witness one man's descent into dementia and incontinence in real time.
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February 18, 2018, 01:36:09 AM

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.
Good job you can still remember it!

I'm honestly beginning to fear that my retirement years are going to be spent running out first thing in the morning for a covfefe and 6 pack of beer, and loafing in this thread all day.

that seems to be a pattern

I'm seriously hoping the longer days and sunlight are going to help
jbreher
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February 18, 2018, 01:46:45 AM

you might be confusing 'smartness' with something else entirely ... idiots educated beyond the level of their intellectual capacity is not a new phenomena .... probably the internet has just created a swag more of these dangerous fools .... case in point take jbreher with his dunning-kruger tendencies now leading him to write in overly-eloquent verbiage to convey trivial, and usually erroneous, meandering thoughts; then hops on his high-horse about a computer science and networking design matter that is clearly well-outside his grasp, and follows up to defend his bruised ego by championing a cause that is clearly to his economic detriment ... that fact alone encapsulates educated beyond their intelligence.

You're adorable. Here - have a merit.
JayJuanGee
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February 18, 2018, 01:50:24 AM

So it looks like we were just in the first sell off/bear trap phase. Nice.


If you are referring to this one,






then such an assessment seems very plausible.  Sure, we don't know for sure until after the fact and maybe a few years later, but seems like a pretty decent case that we are in "first sell off/bear trap phase"..... or another scenario could be that within the next few months BTC prices go up to somewhere between $50k and $100k, and then thereafter in the end of the year or early next year fall down into a  "first sell off/bear trap phase" that brings us down for a more sustainable down market and lasts a year or more until after the 2020 halvening...   I don't really know, but I could see one more up before having a decent sized down that plays out over 2018.
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February 18, 2018, 01:52:34 AM

ether can stop tanking any time here...dammit
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February 18, 2018, 01:57:37 AM



JJG..I see your chart and raise you sir.



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February 18, 2018, 01:59:57 AM

ether can stop tanking any time here...dammit

Truly looks like a bit of an un-flippening going on IMO...  

I expect a bit of a pushback around 11850.  Wonder if we will make it there.
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February 18, 2018, 02:02:33 AM

inb4 MSM 'The bitcoin bubble is back'
~
(volume is too low) Huh


Fuck!!!!!


From my overview of the situation (whatever the fuck I know?), BTC trade volume looks pretty great, especially for a weekend!!!
jbreher
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lose: unfind ... loose: untight


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February 18, 2018, 02:04:05 AM

What do y'all do when you are asleep or otherwise AFK and a sudden bout of volatility wipes a wider hole in your spread?

Just rebuild it when you get BTK (back to keyboard). No worries.
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February 18, 2018, 02:05:43 AM

ether can stop tanking any time here...dammit

Truly looks like a bit of an un-flippening going on IMO...  

I expect a bit of a pushback around 11850.  Wonder if we will make it there.

My brief stint with Ether was actually with the token, the DAO. Didn't end well for me...
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February 18, 2018, 02:13:52 AM

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.
I'm not sure if that's very healthy in the long run. There's bound to be vastly more non-spectacular pull back days than the converse.

No, it's just a game. I can stop anytime I want.
The last time I said that I ended up clocking 1800 days of playtime into a single game.

World of Warcraft?
jbreher
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lose: unfind ... loose: untight


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February 18, 2018, 02:18:32 AM

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

Let's project.  Smiley

If we assume the average doubling floor time of 6 months over the last 5 years (including the 2014-2015 bear market):

$20k Aug 2018
$40k Feb 2019
$80k Aug 2019
$160k Feb 2021
$320k Aug 2021
$640k Feb 2022
$1.28MM Aug 2022

Three and a half more years.

If the doubling time persists at 3 months (the approx. average of the last three doublings), then just under two years. Mid 2020.

Wow.






You lot that like to sell your BTC in increments to buy back, take note that you don’t run out.  

Using the numbers above, even should there be no volatility to be harvested (as if), I'm good through 2022.
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February 18, 2018, 02:34:56 AM
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*sniff*  *sniff*   something in the air..

I think that it is overcooked bear, perhaps?   Cheesy
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February 18, 2018, 02:36:45 AM

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.
Good job you can still remember it!

I'm honestly beginning to fear that my retirement years are going to be spent running out first thing in the morning for a covfefe and 6 pack of beer, and loafing in this thread all day.


I retired (could retire w/o cryto hoard...but when BTC hit 10k ...as a backstop I am trying never to use..I was like out of excuses).

Anyway, retired 1/14/18 and it is now 2/17/18....

and you have pretty much nailed this first month at least........

then again, hard to do 'projects on the house' when you are mining scrypt-pow yet...and keep tripping over stuff that makes you some coin (garlicoin as an example...gotta love
them knc titans and scrypt-n)

so yeah, it is pretty much 'loaf city' till I start to make less money, mucking with real world house fix stuff..then maybe, I can take a vacation and/or work on the house

(then again it is winter and cold as f*ck outside also)

So yeah, you pretty much 'nailed it'

gonna have to work on how to 'structure' my 'leisure time' .....besides crypto

brad



JayJuanGee
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February 18, 2018, 02:55:28 AM

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.

Yes, these days without a big pullback have left me with several bids that are being left in the dust. Oh well, each bid only represents about 1% of my holdings, so overall the 99% of my holdings are looking better. I won't be inventing any drinking games though, to celebrate. I have been on the wagon since 2009.


Ultimately, you have to be prepared for the possibility that your buy orders will get left behind forever and ever, and that you are mostly emotionally neutral to the scenario that they get left behind forever and ever.  

If you are not mostly emotional neutral that your buy orders get left behind forever and ever, then you likely are "playing" (trading) with too large amounts, and you need to reduce your amounts until they reach such a level that you are largely emotionally neutral about them getting left behind forever and ever.

The reality of the matter is that in a large number of cases, your buy orders are not going to get left behind forever and ever, but you should not care nor think too much about it...  

By the way, recall that the first time around on the way up from $890 to $19,666 (that took about 9 months to play out), seems like we had a fewer than 5 retracements that were 27% or greater, and I believe that the maximum retracement was 40%-ish in mid-September from $4,980 to $2,970.  So under that actual real life application, there were a lot of folks who left a lot of buy orders on the table on the way up - however, there are ways to deal with such including from time to time, the increments and the amounts of those left behind buy orders can be shuffled around in order to make them much more profitable in the event that a downturn comes and, especially during what ended up being our 70% retracement from $19,666 to $5,921.  And, also, sometimes you can decide to use some of that money and just completely take it off the table in a practice that Rptiella had referred to as "raking" in his SSS thread.
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February 18, 2018, 02:57:03 AM
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Korea is leading this thing again as they did during the entire run up to 19666. That is a good sign. There are no trading games to be had when there is real demand for a finite resource.
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February 18, 2018, 03:00:16 AM

Purple line is shorts on BfX.  Squish squish squelch.

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February 18, 2018, 03:01:04 AM
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ether can stop tanking any time here...dammit

We did talk about this.
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February 18, 2018, 03:09:15 AM



JJG..I see your chart and raise you sir.




Yeah, you raised me into a near total state of bewilderment in my attempt to understand what your chart means in terms of Bitcoin price discussion and analysis, and what is the significance of the bear warning?

Seems to me that we got's ourselves no bears hanging around in these here territories.. They all be hiding under the cupboards, but surely they will be back to spread a little naysaying bear doo doo as soon at there is any kind of sign of this bad boy slowing down.  When?  I have hardly any clue, as usual, but looking good to me, and looking really good.

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