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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25465195 times)
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Toxic2040
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March 06, 2018, 06:29:01 AM

Except because 14 million is more or less the number of users coinbase alone have. Granted it is probably the one with the biggest userbase thoug.

I am talking actual users..not zombie accounts. I subtracted that factor of 20 from it after someone suggested I was off in my calculation of broad money. I thought I had posted that back of the napkin calc in this thread sometime ago..
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Phil_S
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March 06, 2018, 06:29:31 AM
Merited by Karartma1 (3)

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https://twitter.com/manwithnoname49

Nice!
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March 06, 2018, 06:31:09 AM

Except because 14 million is more or less the number of users coinbase alone have. Granted it is probably the one with the biggest userbase thoug.

I am talking actual users..not zombie accounts. I subtracted that factor of 20 from it after someone suggested I was off in my calculation of broad money. I thought I had posted that back of the napkin calc in this thread sometime ago..

What do you believe would be a good threshold level determine, "adoption"? I had suggested anyone holding or spending at least $100 within the past year or something like that.
Toxic2040
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March 06, 2018, 06:31:31 AM
Last edit: March 06, 2018, 06:55:22 AM by Toxic2040

Crypto Chart Visionary Art
https://twitter.com/manwithnoname49

Nice!
+5 WOsMerits

Ya..I ment to drop some of that dudes ch-arts in here..refreshing.

Except because 14 million is more or less the number of users coinbase alone have. Granted it is probably the one with the biggest userbase thoug.

I am talking actual users..not zombie accounts. I subtracted that factor of 20 from it after someone suggested I was off in my calculation of broad money. I thought I had posted that back of the napkin calc in this thread sometime ago..

What do you believe would be a good threshold level determine, "adoption"? I had suggested anyone holding or spending at least $100 within the past year or something like that.

I was thinking more along the lines of $1000 usd per annum. This is $2.73972602739726usd a day. Probably reasonable for a basic user.
Total crypto market cap - $460,981,764,628/14,000,000=$32927.268902
Bitcoin market cap  - $192,042,420,739/14,000,000=$13717.31576707143

It always amazes me when you start crunching the numbers and correlation occurs...its why I love math I suppose. I find it odd that the number I have in bold is remarkably similar to what our price is atm. I ran into this same fractal when doing the percentages to broad money. Where I was doing each halving the price mirrored the actual price of bitcoin at that time.
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March 06, 2018, 06:56:08 AM
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BTC Dominance is up to 41.6% now - do you guys think it will hit 50%?
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March 06, 2018, 07:13:29 AM



[edited out]

I was thinking more along the lines of $1000 usd per annum. This is $2.73972602739726usd a day. Probably reasonable for a basic user.
Total crypto market cap - $460,981,764,628/14,000,000=$32927.268902
Bitcoin market cap  - $192,042,420,739/14,000,000=$13717.31576707143

It always amazes me when you start crunching the numbers and correlation occurs...its why I love math I suppose. I find it odd that the number I have in bold is remarkably similar to what our price is atm. I ran into this same fractal when doing the percentages to broad money. Where I was doing each halving the price mirrored the actual price of bitcoin at that time.

I personally think that your entry threshold is way too high to constitute what would be an entry level adopter, but sure, I asked and you said what you think is a good number.  There were a couple of older threads on the topic, but I could only find one in my watchlist.. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

I do think that we have to consider that we have sporadic use in bitcoin, but we also have people in poor countries and even in developed countries who would be hard pressed to save $1,000 in a year (or to otherwise put money in bitcoin for spending)..  You may have come up with a possible average amount of ownership for the average user, but still we have to consider that possibly we have nearly 10k peeps who own more than 100 BTC,  which would likely restrict the number bitcoins that are available for everyone else.
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March 06, 2018, 07:15:25 AM

BTC Dominance is up to 41.6% now - do you guys think it will hit 50%?

It may be but I think bitcoin dominance is not so important now because it has more than 1500 competitors and most alts have no cap on the coins that can be issued.
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March 06, 2018, 07:23:13 AM

There are 57.5 million Utxo.   An awful lot of these must be dust or lost keys.  I would have contributed to the dust.

That said I assume Coinbase has far less UTXO than users.
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March 06, 2018, 07:25:03 AM

14 million is the amount claimed by coinbase... Is that accurate?  So wouldn't the world's useage be double or triple that?

We are not getting to the 70 million arena (which would be close to 1%) merely based on extrapolations from coinbase's supposed user base, are we?


Actual daily users..  14 mio
People who fomo'd recently and long term hodlers who dont use bitcoin daily.  45-70 mio about .5%-1%
Total number of people exposed to bitcoin and crypto this last hype cycle.  700 mio or about 10% of the planet.

As with any exponential increase its almost impossible to really grasp hold of whats really going on even if its right in front of your eyes. The human mind just can not visualize those kinds of numbers. You have to trust in mathematics.

The jump from where we are at 14 million..or 70 million(which I feel is probably more accurate) to 700 million is going to blow our minds.


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March 06, 2018, 07:28:42 AM

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Absolutely marvelous works of crypto art! Thanks for sharing, now I know where to get Desktop Wallpaper from!
Amazing
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March 06, 2018, 07:30:35 AM

Can you provide a source for 14 million daily users?  Was that on the FoMO peak day?
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March 06, 2018, 07:40:33 AM

BTC Dominance is up to 41.6% now - do you guys think it will hit 50%?
I think more than that dude. Bitcoin will hit $13000 again for this month.
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March 06, 2018, 07:43:35 AM

BTC Dominance is up to 41.6% now - do you guys think it will hit 50%?
I think more than that dude. Bitcoin will hit $13000 again for this month.
It will dump just before hitting high noon. Harry just went over this.

Edit: Here

Edit:  the real dump will come when we touch $12k or just before.
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March 06, 2018, 07:48:20 AM

BTC Dominance is up to 41.6% now - do you guys think it will hit 50%?
We will do simple party if that would happen. Simple celebration showing i got good enough profit for the continuous increasing of bitcoin value.
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March 06, 2018, 07:49:10 AM


I keep saying it and it keeps happening.

The one no-one's watching - Unobtanium. Now 4 years old.

Try getting your hands on it - you can't.

Now $170. Immense !!




Lead dev Bryce Weiner. scammy dubious. noty.
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March 06, 2018, 07:50:11 AM

14 million is the amount claimed by coinbase... Is that accurate?  So wouldn't the world's useage be double or triple that?

We are not getting to the 70 million arena (which would be close to 1%) merely based on extrapolations from coinbase's supposed user base, are we?


Actual daily users..  14 mio
People who fomo'd recently and long term hodlers who dont use bitcoin daily.  45-70 mio about .5%-1%
Total number of people exposed to bitcoin and crypto this last hype cycle.  700 mio or about 10% of the planet.

As with any exponential increase its almost impossible to really grasp hold of whats really going on even if its right in front of your eyes. The human mind just can not visualize those kinds of numbers. You have to trust in mathematics.

The jump from where we are at 14 million..or 70 million(which I feel is probably more accurate) to 700 million is going to blow our minds.

This conversation is getting further and further into the ungrounded speculations... I say whoaza to all of it...

daily users = peeps who have held or used $1k of bitcoin over the past year   - 14 million peeps

recently fomoed - perhaps only $100 of bitcoin or more in the past year  - 45-70 million peeps  (that is just amazing speculation to assert)

total number "exposed" whatever that means (they heard about bitcoin - 700 million peeps .... OMG... you are grasping, and who cares about the 700 million who heard about bitcoin, they have not yet acted in any kind of material way, and if you really ask them to describe bitcoin, they have more than a 95% chance of getting it wrong in a large way and not having any kind of clue about how to get started or even having any motivation to get started.

I will agree with you that it is going to be amazing to get these 10% to onboard, but good luck accomplishing that in the next 5 years.

Can you provide a source for 14 million daily users?  Was that on the FoMO peak day?

I  believe that Toxic really did justice to "toxic" this time, and perhaps it was hallucinogenic mushrooms?
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March 06, 2018, 07:56:51 AM

BTC Dominance is up to 41.6% now - do you guys think it will hit 50%?

How about ~100%?
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March 06, 2018, 08:01:16 AM

1% adoption of bitcoin is 100% of what I expected in a good scenario. Most national currencies are used by less than 1% of the world. The idea of a whole world that uses bitcoin is a fantasy.
Why would it be a fantasy?  Usage of national currencies being largely confined to their own nation seems only logical, bitcoin being unable to be used worldwide seems illogical.
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March 06, 2018, 08:42:23 AM
Last edit: March 06, 2018, 09:52:21 AM by Toxic2040

This conversation is getting further and further into the ungrounded speculations... I say whoaza to all of it...

daily users = peeps who have held or used $1k of bitcoin over the past year   - 14 million peeps

recently fomoed - perhaps only $100 of bitcoin or more in the past year  - 45-70 million peeps  (that is just amazing speculation to assert)

total number "exposed" whatever that means (they heard about bitcoin - 700 million peeps .... OMG... you are grasping, and who cares about the 700 million who heard about bitcoin, they have not yet acted in any kind of material way, and if you really ask them to describe bitcoin, they have more than a 95% chance of getting it wrong in a large way and not having any kind of clue about how to get started or even having any motivation to get started.

I will agree with you that it is going to be amazing to get these 10% to onboard, but good luck accomplishing that in the next 5 years.

Can you provide a source for 14 million daily users?  Was that on the FoMO peak day?

I  believe that Toxic really did justice to "toxic" this time, and perhaps it was hallucinogenic mushrooms?


Did I miss the speculation part of this thread? That is what we are doing is it not? I am just extrapolating data as I see it JJG. I am far from a expert so you cant take it for what it is.
As of last year however there were up to 5.8 million unique bitcoin addresses...so  I guess the numbers are off if you think all the normies have full nodes. I highly doubt it myself, most dont even know what a node is. I would say most keep their corns insecurely on exchanges or phone apps. What do you think the adoption rate has been over the last few months? I feel like its increasing dramatically..people I havent talked to in ages are calling and asking about bitcoin. My sister for crying out loud called me not a week ago and asked if I could help her understand bitcoin. WAKE THE FUCK UP!

Here is a study Cambridge University did last year, so I cant confirm its veracity. How ever it does have some interesting data that I qouted above. I am purely speculating when I say 14 million but when dealing with exponential increases by the time you realize it is upon you its already happened.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170410130007/https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/alternative-finance/downloads/2017-global-cryptocurrency-benchmarking-study.pdf

Anyway..back to my cave.

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March 06, 2018, 09:55:49 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1), DeathAngel (1), El duderino_ (1)

Maybe the price is staying in this range because most of the newcomers since December bought between 15-19k range. There's a big percentage waiting to break even and perhaps exit after realizing that they don't have the stomach for volatility. Whales may be teasing the price to an "acceptable Loss" range before an eventual retest of the ath. Who knows when that'll be but I suspect it'll be when nobody longer believes it can get there again. Rinse and repeat to new ath perhaps.

I wish I could go more than half a day without checking on price. And I don't even trade so it's of no consequence to me other than excitement of a pump or btfd.
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