Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Which low? The lowest BTC has been since I have been involved was about $170. I don't think you mean that low however; since setting a bid a 1000 below that would be impossible. Unless the exchanges make it possible to have people disposing of their BTC by paying someone to take them off their hands.

170 left of a former 1300, or a -87% loss. Just any similar event of that magnitude is missing today. There was no Mt.Gox happening. Not even possible anymore since there are 114 tradesites doing above $1,000,000 *daily* volume.
Source https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/all/ beware some might hand out false data.

Tried projecting a similar decay onto $20,000 to get that "new 170 datapoint" since it looks again like $2600, that 2x ATH of 2013 mentioned bevore. Just a Gox order of magnitude event is still missing. Watching USDT peg closely.

Forecast of that kind are uncharted territory so best taken with a grain of salt.

I don't think that there is any magic formula like this, but if there is one, then I offer the following:

In 2013-2015 from Bitstamp's 1160 it was more like 85% decline, which was less than about 93.75% of the previous decline (from $32 to $2). If we, indeed, have reduced oscillations now, then bottom might be at 77% decline, which would be about $4544 and it will take a while, probably until the end of the year, maybe Nov (bottom like in 2011) or January (like early 2015 bottom)

It is also possible (although I am currently trending to reject this idea) that we are doing a double peak like in 2013 with current period being the equivalent of $260 (april) to $66-68 move back then (first down on april 16, double bottom on July 6). it was about 74% move if you count between $260 and average between two bottoms (about $67).
We already moved once from $19760 to $5984 (I am getting it from tradingview, others could be slightly different), which is 69.7%.
In this scenario we double dip in around $5800-6000 at around May 1, then surge.

TL;DR either a longer term bear market with possibly $4500-4600 bottom OR a double bottom at around 5600-5800, maybe sometime in May.

[1714062390]

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[1714062390]

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[JayJuanGee]

+1 WoSMerit to JJG, wordy man in nonwordy disguise. You're much more effective and - I'll dare unusual adjectives - enjoyable to read when you dress up this way. Try it more often, if you manage. Please.  

Here's how I feel:

Not that I had any real hope, deep inside. But I had to try, you see.
 

I cannot see nor hear.  lalalalalalallalalala

[d_eddie]

Bob,   I'm ready for that drink. Single malt kinda guy. A shot of Dalmore is high on the bucket list or a older Balvenie might be just as nice. I'll do my best not to get any bitcoiner tears in it.
32D6TKWE5LEgNk6u92bEm1GNAzmnheXbCt

Sheeit  

Ok. PM me your meatspace address. Do you want to supply the blindfold, or should I ?

Naughty. Play fair!

[d_eddie]

The mammoths told me a story all day yesterday.
They were changing their stride, their shape, their voice.
They called, they screamed.
There was nowhere to run.
I got my short started.
It helped.
But I couldn't hodl it all the way down.
Now I'm trying to rebuild it higher.
Little by little.

Talking openly about the mammoths started it all.
That's asking for it, isn't it?

Now I know this thread is being monitored by nasty whales.

[jojo69]

Bob,   I'm ready for that drink. Single malt kinda guy. A shot of Dalmore is high on the bucket list or a older Balvenie might be just as nice. I'll do my best not to get any bitcoiner tears in it.
32D6TKWE5LEgNk6u92bEm1GNAzmnheXbCt

Sheeit  

Ok. PM me your meatspace address. Do you want to supply the blindfold, or should I ?

Hey!!!!!!! 


We are not all getting drinks?

[d_eddie]

Bob,   I'm ready for that drink. Single malt kinda guy. A shot of Dalmore is high on the bucket list or a older Balvenie might be just as nice. I'll do my best not to get any bitcoiner tears in it.
32D6TKWE5LEgNk6u92bEm1GNAzmnheXbCt

Sheeit  

Ok. PM me your meatspace address. Do you want to supply the blindfold, or should I ?

Hey!!!!!!! 


We are not all getting drinks?

I'll have it without a blindfold, please.

Oh and by the way, hail to the legend!

[Biodom]

Bob,   I'm ready for that drink. Single malt kinda guy. A shot of Dalmore is high on the bucket list or a older Balvenie might be just as nice. I'll do my best not to get any bitcoiner tears in it.
32D6TKWE5LEgNk6u92bEm1GNAzmnheXbCt

Sheeit  

Ok. PM me your meatspace address. Do you want to supply the blindfold, or should I ?

Hey!!!!!!!  


We are not all getting drinks?

People at the bottom:
Acid rain?

[Icygreen]

Bob,   I'm ready for that drink. Single malt kinda guy. A shot of Dalmore is high on the bucket list or a older Balvenie might be just as nice. I'll do my best not to get any bitcoiner tears in it.
32D6TKWE5LEgNk6u92bEm1GNAzmnheXbCt

Sheeit  

Ok. PM me your meatspace address. Do you want to supply the blindfold, or should I ?

Alright, PM'ed but no blindfolds dude. I wouldn't want to miss the show 

I can see 8000 where I will purchase another $100k Of BTC. What is your plans?

On top of buying drinks for the entire thread, I'll suck your dick if we see $8,000 USD/BTC this year.

You can quote me on that.

[xhomerx10]

That reminds me; I just bought a new blindfold.... Can't see myself wearing it though.

Edit: spelling

[Maricel2017]

I woke up and see the current value of bitcoin! HOLD HOLD HOLD!

[bluebits]

Premise: Heading down to 5.x (Last area of significant support, 3.5k is just too much too soon right now)

Under bitphysics™ this means at least one material sized interim bounce on the way down. Anyone with a supportable plan to catch it?

[Icygreen]

Alright, PM'ed but no blindfolds dude. I wouldn't want to miss the show 

 Uhh. Wow. So he PM'd me his address.

 Shit just got real.

 So I guess now is a bad time to say "I was just kidding guys !", huh ?

 I don't think I've ever fucked up a "hunch" with Bitcoin this badly before...

 

But its not my address, just one of the many places I can receive mail.
Just an integrity check is all   but ya, I do like scotch.

[Anon136]

Premise: Heading down to 5.x (Last area of significant support, 3.5k is just too much too soon right now)

Under bitphysics™ this means at least one material sized interim bounce on the way down. Anyone with a supportable plan to catch it?

Yea like I said to someone else here. Just keep a stop order 1000 dollars off the low. You will miss the bottom by 1000 dollars but if it goes to 1300 you will be getting it for 2300 instead of blowing your powder at 6000 only to watch it fall to 1300. Well anyway it's just an idea. Curious what others think about it. This idea assumes that by the time it has a full 1000 dollar bounce than the bottom is probably in. Thoughts on that assumption?

[fortune143]

common someone say for every sold BTC there is a buyer

Right after someone says "the next 24 hours are critical"

Not before "1btc is still 1btc"

so if i understand, even in the next critical 24hours ... 1BTC wil still be 1BTC  

Wait wait I've got one. We should all be happy about this decline, it's just a chance to buy more cheaper!

That's Koreck Isaac Newton.  Even if we are not happy, we should be willing to make some lemonade out of these lemons.   

Buy the effing dip guise 

[jojo69]

somebody roll the mayor over

he'll drown in his own vomit like that

[bluebits]

Premise: Heading down to 5.x (Last area of significant support, 3.5k is just too much too soon right now)

Under bitphysics™ this means at least one material sized interim bounce on the way down. Anyone with a supportable plan to catch it?

Yea like I said to someone else here. Just keep a stop order 1000 dollars off the low. You will miss the bottom by 1000 dollars but if it goes to 1300 you will be getting it for 2300 instead of blowing your powder at 6000 only to watch it fall to 1300. Well anyway it's just an idea. Curious what others think about it. This idea assumes that by the time it has a full 1000 dollar bounce than the bottom is probably in. Thoughts on that assumption?

I meant a bounce off of something like 6400 back up to 7400. Logic:

- People are paying 8k a coin right now = market is a long way from accepting that things are over
- Things aren't over = Traders will expect a bottom or bounce somewhere soon

Result is a bounce. The big one will be for the next sizable glade. On the way to this final glade it can't go straight down from 9k to 5k, it has to bounce somewhere along the way.

[the artful bodger]

Alright, PM'ed but no blindfolds dude. I wouldn't want to miss the show  

 Uhh. Wow. So he PM'd me his address.

 Shit just got real.

 So I guess now is a bad time to say "I was just kidding guys !", huh ?

 I don't think I've ever fucked up a "hunch" with Bitcoin this badly before...

 

But its not my address, just one of the many places I can receive mail.
Just an integrity check is all   but ya, I do like scotch.

I wouldn't mind a shot of The Macallan In Lalique 65 Year Old Speyside Single Malt Scotch Whisky. It's only $58195 a bottle.

If bob want's to be cheap I'll settle for a cup of Kopi luwak coffee. It was the world’s most expensive coffee, and only costs $35 to $100 a cup.

It's made from luwak shit. They select and eat the best coffee cherries, then shit out the undigested beans, which are collected, cleaned, and roasted.

This is a fresh luwak shit.



There's some cheap stuff produced by caged luwaks. However I wouldn't consider drinking that because keeping them in cages is cruel. I only drink the free range stuff.

Sadly it lost its coveted position of the world’s most expensive coffee. There's other rarer stuff shit out by different, more exotic animals that's now selling for more.

[HairyMaclairy]

Ok this doesn’t look great.  But if it goes deep enough, I could potentially triple my holdings.  So that would be nice.

[bitserve]

Oh... well....

[lightfoot]

somebody roll the mayor over

he'll drown in his own vomit like that

Far better than drowning in someone else's vomit.

So, who is going to sell at the bottom? Anyone?