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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 38 (27.5%)
2020 - 57 (41.3%)
2021 - 32 (23.2%)
2022 - 6 (4.3%)
2023 - 1 (0.7%)
Never - 4 (2.9%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21176871 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (24 posts by 13 users deleted.)
d_eddie
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March 28, 2018, 12:23:08 AM

I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.
Thanks for sharing your opinion.

One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame.
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March 28, 2018, 12:26:36 AM

I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.
Thanks for sharing your opinion.

One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame.
Lets face it, you're only here because you sold at 2k and you dream of getting back in close to what you sold for? Reveal yourself!
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March 28, 2018, 12:29:02 AM

I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.
Thanks for sharing your opinion.

One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame.
Lets face it, you're only here because you sold at 2k and you dream of getting back in close to what you sold for? Reveal yourself!
Are you asking me or Tera?

If it's me you're addressing, you're far from the truth. Very, very far.

Not that I would mind getting some coin at 2k... but not because I sold. And it's not a thing of today, or tomorrow.
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March 28, 2018, 12:41:30 AM

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March 28, 2018, 12:48:52 AM

I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.
Thanks for sharing your opinion.

One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame.

That time frame is indeed a long way out in terms of possible events, but it is surprising how often chart analysis works out correct over the longer term. The short to medium term breaks down with unforseen events, yet the long term is a product of very large numbers of small chaotic events, and tends to exhibit its own structure regardless (or perhaps because of : classical chaos theory).
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March 28, 2018, 12:49:04 AM

While we're here wondering, let's munch some gossip.
Here's a couple updates from Masterluc in the last few days.

Quote from: Masterluc
(2018.03.25)
I do not know what to write, the indicators are not very good. Wall Street on Friday fell heavily, but bitcoin in the meantime is carefully cutting the sausage (sobering up?). In general, we trample carefully on the spot with bad indicators and surroundings.

Quote from: Masterluc
(2018.03.20)
For my medium-term optimism, it is necessary that the price immediately rises above the daily ma 200 and weekly ma 20.
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March 28, 2018, 12:57:17 AM

Am I alone in thinking that this is the true beginning of the demise of bitcoin?
 Undecided

I was castigated on here when I posted this 10 days ago.
I still strongly believe we are watching crypto currencies die.
I want a few apologies when it becomes apparent to all.


What reason do you have for that ? 

Many projects will of course die. Crypto is most likely to survive. Even BTC at $2-3000 would simply be back to long term support,  not dead.
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March 28, 2018, 12:59:31 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), itod (1)

My accountant just got back to me. It's hell season for him, and dude is flying cross-country dealing with his larger clients.

Delaying a tax payment on $nM from one quarter to the next is negligible. 4% penalty annually (compounded daily so it works out to more than that, actually). The IRS is going to assume I owe 1/4 of $nM of the tax per quarter unless we specify otherwise (which we ultimately will, because I'm strange like that)

tl;dr: 1/4 of a 4% tax payment obligation on $nM, delayed a quarter, is a reasonable penalty in a down crypto market - assuming we don't head even lower in Q2.

Will take my chances and HODL.
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March 28, 2018, 01:01:39 AM

I would respectfully suggest that Jamie Dimon has set the support and resistance for the next few years.  $2400/$20,000.

In Sept 2017 he said BTC was a fraud, but also  'don't short, it may go to $20,000'. The low after his remarks was $2400.

That may seem like a wide range, but volatility will remain high.
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March 28, 2018, 01:13:04 AM

Jamie knows that if you short BTC you must go long USD which as a former NYC FED chief he knows is a bad bet overall

While we're here wondering, let's munch some gossip.
Here's a couple updates from Masterluc in the last few days.

Quote from: Masterluc
(2018.03.25)
I do not know what to write, the indicators are not very good. Wall Street on Friday fell heavily, but bitcoin in the meantime is carefully cutting the sausage (sobering up?). In general, we trample carefully on the spot with bad indicators and surroundings.

Quote from: Masterluc
(2018.03.20)
For my medium-term optimism, it is necessary that the price immediately rises above the daily ma 200 and weekly ma 20.

MasterLuc needs to note the DXY or dollar index rather then DOW which is only 30 stocks and more like a barometer of sentiment really.

Here is the ETF which should align quite closely but stockcharts.com has the dollar index I think



Dollar index fell from its high on the new presidential term high, its lost about 10% or so.  The ETF shows -14%, some of that is fees.   It relates to dollar worth and should be inverse to BTC gains some.   If we did get a (sharply, note 2008) rising dollar index it really would be bearish for BTC otherwise I dont especially think crypto is under pressure apart  from its own making
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March 28, 2018, 01:16:37 AM

I would respectfully suggest that Jamie Dimon has set the support and resistance for the next few years.  $2400/$20,000.

In Sept 2017 he said BTC was a fraud, but also  'don't short, it may go to $20,000'. The low after his remarks was $2400.

That may seem like a wide range, but volatility will remain high.
https://youtu.be/40OuVyVGdIM?t=55s
a month later he said it could trade at $100k

also he's too poor to affect markets
http://btcbase.org/log/2018-03-18#1788191
mircea_popescu: i dunno, maybe it's not apparent, let's reiterate. minigame is a multi-million dollar corp, trusted by people with multi-million dollars worth of virtual equipment. you understand me ? when it says 8k btc equity that means more money than dimon got.

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March 28, 2018, 01:27:53 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

Funny thing in that video, he goes onto to recommend BTC in certain countries where they inflate the national FIAT currency.     So they dont do this is in USA at all, not to the same extent as Venezuela perhaps but certainly its in no way under control in Japan and I would argue also USA will not be able to control its debt.   The average term of debt for 20 trillion (increasingly more)  is 4 years,   thats juggling chainsaws for economic policy.   But none of this is accepted mainstream, it will knock onto crypto value and validity as a reliable exchangeable value system.

Japan has a horrible situation, demographically far worse then USA and the debt can never be controlled.   Japan holds 1 trillion of US debt, all these central banks are relying on each other but I think the system itself will give way.   So one of the main struts holding up US debt has serious problems sustaining itself.  Maybe crypto is part of a better system I dont know yet but its easily contestable what Jamie Dimon says about FIAT > crypto

https://youtu.be/40OuVyVGdIM?t=153
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March 28, 2018, 01:50:29 AM

I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.
Thanks for sharing your opinion.

One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame.
Lets face it, you're only here because you sold at 2k and you dream of getting back in close to what you sold for? Reveal yourself!
Are you asking me or Tera?

If it's me you're addressing, you're far from the truth. Very, very far.

Not that I would mind getting some coin at 2k... but not because I sold. And it's not a thing of today, or tomorrow.
I sold in small batches all the way through the entire rally. Yes some were in the 2Ks but it was only 10% of my coins. Then after we passed 5K I started trading altcoins and made many hugely successful altcoin trades. By the time we reached 20K I made back every coin I sold plus multiplied the entire stash by 3. I rather promptly sold most of my altcoin profits all in the teens. My biggest sell was at $18,800 - and I multipled all those profits with further daytrading during the bounces. At this point I've withdrawn a fortune in cash AND I still hold the original amount of bitcoins that Ive held since 2013, as if I never sold. So now I'm set for both outcomes of bitcoin whether it succeeds or fails and what I'm waiting for is to finally get everything off the exchanges and into cold storage so I can turn all the charts off and enter into ignore mode so I can take a nice break for a couple years again like I did in 2014 and 2015.
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March 28, 2018, 01:59:38 AM

Meanwhile, far away, in another part of town, not only the Dow took a good blow (-1.43%), but even the more stable S&P500 did (-1.72%). The Nasdaq is surrounded by a troupe of paramedics (-2.94%).
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March 28, 2018, 03:19:29 AM

I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.
Thanks for sharing your opinion.

One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame.
Lets face it, you're only here because you sold at 2k and you dream of getting back in close to what you sold for? Reveal yourself!
Are you asking me or Tera?

If it's me you're addressing, you're far from the truth. Very, very far.

Not that I would mind getting some coin at 2k... but not because I sold. And it's not a thing of today, or tomorrow.
I sold in small batches all the way through the entire rally. Yes some were in the 2Ks but it was only 10% of my coins. Then after we passed 5K I started trading altcoins and made many hugely successful altcoin trades. By the time we reached 20K I made back every coin I sold plus multiplied the entire stash by 3. I rather promptly sold most of my altcoin profits all in the teens. My biggest sell was at $18,800 - and I multipled all those profits with further daytrading during the bounces. At this point I've withdrawn a fortune in cash AND I still hold the original amount of bitcoins that Ive held since 2013, as if I never sold. So now I'm set for both outcomes of bitcoin whether it succeeds or fails and what I'm waiting for is to finally get everything off the exchanges and into cold storage so I can turn all the charts off and enter into ignore mode so I can take a nice break for a couple years again like I did in 2014 and 2015.

did kinda the same thing thou thru MINING...have original hoard of BTC since like 2015....but as I mined I just doubled equipment to defer taxes...and built up a lot of ALT coins

enough thru mining I can retire 3 years early, in the sense I don't have to touch any traditional retirement portfolio that kinda stuff till my full retirement age of 66 years

so the bet is (and BTC would have to dump below 1.5k or about and take ALTS down proportionally for this NOT to work ..my 3 year early retirement..using only the ALTS)

So.....with dubious miner equipment in the wind, unlikely to make sense in 2018... (does NOT make sense since the middle of 2017 to swap crypto for equipment of any flavor with crypto price rises)

I may just have to try this TRADING stuff everyone talks about (or masternode coins) or some other angle

but pretty much the same deal...the bet is on the BTC hoard .becoming something someday...and use the ALT coins from the miner angle above....IF for some reason

BTC and all crypto goes 'tulips' etc, etc...well I'll just have a lot of BTC on the Trezor to mull over and make a T-shirt that says:

Crypto allowed me to retire 3 years early...bite me!

(hey, it is not much of an endgame....but regardless of the price now of about 8k....I'd a been a crying a river if I'd have sold my BTC etc July of 2016 at $475 each...)

thus my perspective on all this...boom or bust..chump or champ...)

Again, interesting same result, but I used mining angles and equip deductions for tax man and such to keep my hoard and get the extra ALTS to do the 3 year early retire thing...

but my BIG TIME mining days may be over, a couple units in the basement per year for heat and giggles is likely my future...just saying...that and HODL that BTC hoard was/is

the main thing

anyway, another perspective on the same BTC HODL trick..from the mining angle....(which may no longer work as of 2018 with Bitmain Monopoly and current prices of any coin)

later

brad






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March 28, 2018, 03:34:12 AM
Merited by bitebits (1)

A few big holders here are selling some coins to pay off their tax bills before the April deadline. Searing panic dumped his, and other traders and miners in a hurry for the money probably did likewise. That selling pressure should end soon. I'm looking forward to a good pump mid-April.

I, on the other hand, have been busting my fucking ass working overtime.  The tax man may get his fiat, but he ain't getting my coin.
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March 28, 2018, 03:47:56 AM

JayJuanGee, I got an experiment for you.  Let's get you to dump 8 bitcoins for the new Camaro ZL1 1LE, get the 800hp flash and tune up, then we can see how long you live afterwards.



That is a nice looking car.

As you likely know, in your trolling desperation, this is not the time to be selling bitcoins for depreciating assets - like your silver and gold seem to be, relatively speaking.    Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Tongue
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March 28, 2018, 03:54:36 AM
Merited by micgoossens (1)


The battle continues in the trenches. Nothing new to report really, just wanted to share this comparision of the last three spring seasons.




Means that we are going up in this spring?  

Bitcoin is not really seasonal, so I doubt that the spring of 2016 or the spring of 2017 creates any kind of meaningful bullish indicator for BTC prices - even though we could, coincidentally, experience some kind of bounce back in the coming months.... perhaps 35% odds?  Am I being too bearish, ATM, which could be a sign of capitulation?
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March 28, 2018, 03:56:07 AM

https://blockstream.com/2018/03/27/ifpaytt-brings-lightning-micropayments-to-ifttt.html
in which blockstream obsoletes their own stuff from 2~3 days ago

I like those LAapps so far and more to come, innovation will flourish on LN.

FileBazaar: micropayments for content creators that produce digital files like photos, videos, or docs.

Lightning Publisher: accept bitcoin payments for content on WordPress blogs.

nanotip: a simple web server for accepting lightning donations (a lightning tip jar).

paypercall: a simple way to charge for HTTP APIs on a pay-per-call basis.

nanopos: a simple point-of-sale system for physical stores.

Just wait, Bitcoin will explode with these LAapps Cool

Ohh, don't forget MAST, Roostock, Mimblewimble, Confidential Transactions, Schnorr, Tumblebit, Bulletproof, Simplicity (side/drive chains)

All these projects will increase the network value to $100k+ per coin.
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March 28, 2018, 04:10:28 AM



Hopefully what is depicted in the above pic is not going to happen.   Shocked Shocked







omg what have I done. This sigil sucks.

Truly some creative skills that you got's ur selfie there, tera dee beeeeeara.     Wink
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