Ever since the Death Cross late March bitcoin price has found resistance at the daily 200 MA. We are in a bear market until price breaks through the 200 MA. Also testing the 50 MA right now: if 50 MA does not hold next resistance range is $6400 - $7300.
Best case scenario IMO is we are range bound between the 50 and 200 MA until one or the other is breached.
I appreciate your discussion of recent resistance at the 200 day MA, which in accordance with your chart, seems to have been tested and held on three occasions since late March. And in the past 24 hours support at the 50 day MA seems to have been tested and so far held.
It seems likely that you are concluding that BTC is in a bear market from other data - besides those shorter-term points that have been broken through several times in the past 4 months - and yes, I see that you seem to be focusing a bit more on the period of time once the 50 day MA moved below the 200 day MA.
Even though I frequently witness what I perceive to be these kinds of pre-mature (and perhaps too much TA reliant) assessments that BTC is in a bear market, I am NOT sure how anyone can really be confidently arriving at such conclusions because the actual conclusion of a "bear market" would be more than a couple of quarters of downward BTC price performance besides just trying to pigeon-hole bitcoin into traditional assessments or implying that BTC is the same as other assets and even downplaying fundamentals that show BTC to have unique paradigm shifting components.
Furthermore, it took BTC more than 2 years to go from its $250-ish foundation to its $19,666 price peak, so it would also seem likely that we should be considering some longer term trends, rather than seemingly prematurely pigeon-holing BTC's current overall market posture as "bear market."
In other words, how come I get a bit perturbed by seemingly smart peeps wanting to prematurely conclude and define BTC as a bear market, when the data seems to not be in yet.
Sure as fuck, down the road, these "bear market" labels could end up being correct, and sure as fuck, individually, you are able to make market bets in accordance with your tentative (and seemingly premature) assessments about a BTC being in the beginning of a bear market, but the actual BTC market performance is not seeming to meet a reasonable bear market definition merely because there has been a bit more than 4 month downward price performance, and merely because the 50 day MA has moved below the 200 day MA - from a bit of a steamy top up to $19,666.
At the risk of repeating my selfie, I just don't buy these kinds of seemly premature bear market conclusions, unless perhaps we witness another 3-4 months of such downward BTC price performance, then I might, perhaps, begin to grant such possible assessments.
In other words, a relatively long downward BTC price correction (of a bit over 4 months) does not seem to take BTC out of a bull market and put it in a bear market... even though it may be a bit much to conclude that BTC remains in a bull market, too, and to me, it seems almost equally wishful and premature to be coming to such bear market conclusion as it would be to be concluding bull market from looking at longer trends - in other words, the jury remains out, even if you want to make your BTC price bets towards downward price movements and you somehow believe that overall down is more likely than up, which I guess would be part of any trader's practical application of coming to such "bear market" conclusion, which seems like it has a decent chance of getting rekt to place too high percentages on such downwards presumptions.. when the odds of the bottom being in might be close to as likely as betting on continued downwards?
Another possible assessment of current BTC market dynamics, would be to don't do (or conclude) anything until there is a decently sized break one way or another, which might require a considerable amount of movement passed either the 50 day MA on the downside or the 200 day MA on the upside.
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