Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bones261]

I agree that there are many people like Rojer Ver who delibarately sold tens and hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to pump their beecash etc. shitcoins. But there are other whales as well - mining whales mostly with short fat fingers which love to hit sell button on bitfinex. Each day 1800 new bitcoins are mined. For a week they gather 12600, for 1 month 50400, etc. Not so long time ago (5-6 months) they had enough profit to do so - like 20$ per asic s9 per day. But now, thanks to the many new s9's (and equivalent) plugged in, their profit is only 2.8$ per day with 0.1$ elecricity price. In the last 3 months the mining difficulty rose by 43% (meaning 43% less profit with the same price of Bitcoin). In 3 months the expected difficulty is almost the same 35-40%, so their revenue will drop from 6 to 3-4$ meaning the profit will be around 0$. I am curious if they will be happy to hit the sell button then. I guess not.

That said, what can we expect to happen in the next 3 months? When 0.1$ el. price asics are turned off, this will buy some time (but not much) for the 0.04-0.06$ el. price asics to mine on profit. In another 3-6 months even with the lowest el. price asics will have to be turned off. This is very bad news for Bitmain and its competition, but not for the hodlers! Despite the hatred of Jihan Wu for Bitcoin team and supporters, he will be FORCED to pump the price at least 4x, if he wants to continue to manifacture asics and run his pool. The fact that the moderators in bitcoin mining forums ban me for posting these stats, proves how afraid are of the truth they. And those who buy new asics s9 are completely unaware of the mining difficulty charts:

https://whattomine.com/asic
https://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/bitcoin-difficulty-chart
https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Why would Bitmain be forced to pump the price up? It has been quite some time since the S9 came out. I am quite certain that they have already developed the next generation of ASIC chip and are mining with those for themselves. If not, they are probably pretty far along the process. Also, BCH is basically Jihan Wu's creation. If Bitmain isn't far along creating a better ASIC chip, or the new chip isn't enough an improvement, I suspect Bitmain is more likely to prop up the price of BCH rather than BTC. We will see. The reason Bitmain is now so dominate in the mining sector is because they were one of the few that managed to survive and thrive after the 2014/2015 bear market.

[1713551976]

1713551976

[ðºÞæ]

This article made my day. Check it out guys; written in 2014, and till now, the price predictions have remained extremely accurate:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/

There are two main forms of wealth in today's world. Land and cryptocurrency.

 

That was fun. Thanks for the share. Can't wait to meet up with you other "earlies" in the citadel.

Why did he post with that name?

[ivomm]

I agree that there are many people like Rojer Ver who delibarately sold tens and hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to pump their beecash etc. shitcoins. But there are other whales as well - mining whales mostly with short fat fingers which love to hit sell button on bitfinex. Each day 1800 new bitcoins are mined. For a week they gather 12600, for 1 month 50400, etc. Not so long time ago (5-6 months) they had enough profit to do so - like 20$ per asic s9 per day. But now, thanks to the many new s9's (and equivalent) plugged in, their profit is only 2.8$ per day with 0.1$ elecricity price. In the last 3 months the mining difficulty rose by 43% (meaning 43% less profit with the same price of Bitcoin). In 3 months the expected difficulty is almost the same 35-40%, so their revenue will drop from 6 to 3-4$ meaning the profit will be around 0$. I am curious if they will be happy to hit the sell button then. I guess not.

That said, what can we expect to happen in the next 3 months? When 0.1$ el. price asics are turned off, this will buy some time (but not much) for the 0.04-0.06$ el. price asics to mine on profit. In another 3-6 months even with the lowest el. price asics will have to be turned off. This is very bad news for Bitmain and its competition, but not for the hodlers! Despite the hatred of Jihan Wu for Bitcoin team and supporters, he will be FORCED to pump the price at least 4x, if he wants to continue to manifacture asics and run his pool. The fact that the moderators in bitcoin mining forums ban me for posting these stats, proves how afraid are of the truth they. And those who buy new asics s9 are completely unaware of the mining difficulty charts:

https://whattomine.com/asic
https://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/bitcoin-difficulty-chart
https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Why would Bitmain be forced to pump the price up? It has been quite sometime since the S9 came out. I am quite certain that they have already developed the next generation of ASIC chip and are mining with those for themselves. If not, they are probably pretty far along the process. Also, BCH is basically Jihan Wu's creation. If Bitmain isn't far along creating a better ASIC chip, or the new chip isn't enough an improvement, I suspect Bitmain is more likely to prop up the price of BCH rather than BTC. We will see. The reason Bitmain is now so dominate in the mining sector is because they were one of the few that managed to survive and thrive after the 2014/2015 bear market.

The development of new generation asic takes months and  millions of investment. Let's say that Jihan will be ready to produce the next s11 with the 10nm Samsung chip in 2019. If the price of Bitcoin is the same, all s9's will be useless in 6 months tops from now. How are all supposed  to start buying the new devices, provided that they didn't return their money for s9s? (43% increase for the last 3 monts speaks of the number of new devices bought). Even with s11, in 2019 their profit will be near 0, so to speak DOA. Who will buy a 3000$ device with a near 0 profit and old devices with no ROI? Regarding the BeeCasH - the hashrate is 10x less. Any increase in the price of BeeCasH attracts miners, raises the difficulty (remember it is daily adjusted) and the profit at the end of the day is the same as with mining bitcoin. We had a fresh example - BeeCasH price was 5x pumped but the profit was only equal to the profit of bitcoin - 10-50% increase during the pump. Only if the price of BeeCasH is 10x compared to the present, the profit may become bigger permanently. This is ridiculous btw. So most of the miners will prefer to hold and even buy bitcoins in order to reach better price. With or without Jihan - they need at least 4x times increase i.e. around 30K price, to keep the hopes of ROI and further profit.

[El duderino_]

Darkness rises...

  lol

[bones261]

I agree that there are many people like Rojer Ver who delibarately sold tens and hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to pump their beecash etc. shitcoins. But there are other whales as well - mining whales mostly with short fat fingers which love to hit sell button on bitfinex. Each day 1800 new bitcoins are mined. For a week they gather 12600, for 1 month 50400, etc. Not so long time ago (5-6 months) they had enough profit to do so - like 20$ per asic s9 per day. But now, thanks to the many new s9's (and equivalent) plugged in, their profit is only 2.8$ per day with 0.1$ elecricity price. In the last 3 months the mining difficulty rose by 43% (meaning 43% less profit with the same price of Bitcoin). In 3 months the expected difficulty is almost the same 35-40%, so their revenue will drop from 6 to 3-4$ meaning the profit will be around 0$. I am curious if they will be happy to hit the sell button then. I guess not.

That said, what can we expect to happen in the next 3 months? When 0.1$ el. price asics are turned off, this will buy some time (but not much) for the 0.04-0.06$ el. price asics to mine on profit. In another 3-6 months even with the lowest el. price asics will have to be turned off. This is very bad news for Bitmain and its competition, but not for the hodlers! Despite the hatred of Jihan Wu for Bitcoin team and supporters, he will be FORCED to pump the price at least 4x, if he wants to continue to manifacture asics and run his pool. The fact that the moderators in bitcoin mining forums ban me for posting these stats, proves how afraid are of the truth they. And those who buy new asics s9 are completely unaware of the mining difficulty charts:

https://whattomine.com/asic
https://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/bitcoin-difficulty-chart
https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Why would Bitmain be forced to pump the price up? It has been quite sometime since the S9 came out. I am quite certain that they have already developed the next generation of ASIC chip and are mining with those for themselves. If not, they are probably pretty far along the process. Also, BCH is basically Jihan Wu's creation. If Bitmain isn't far along creating a better ASIC chip, or the new chip isn't enough an improvement, I suspect Bitmain is more likely to prop up the price of BCH rather than BTC. We will see. The reason Bitmain is now so dominate in the mining sector is because they were one of the few that managed to survive and thrive after the 2014/2015 bear market.

The development of new generation asic takes months and  millions of investment. Let's say that Jihan will be ready to produce the next s11 with the 10nm Samsung chip in 2019. If the price of Bitcoin is the same, all s9's will be useless in 6 months tops from now. How are all supposed  to start buying the new devices, provided that they didn't return their money for s9s? (43% increase for the last 3 monts speaks of the number of new devices bought). Even with s11, in 2019 their profit will be near 0, so to speak DOA. Who will buy a 3000$ device with a near 0 profit and old devices with no ROI? Regarding the BCH - the hashrate is 10x less. Any increase in the price of BCH attracts miners, raises the difficulty (remember it is daily adjusted) and the profit is the same as with mining bitcoin. We had a fresh example - BCH price was 5x pumped but the profit was only equal to the profit of bitcoin - 10-50% during the pump. Only if the price of BCH is 10x compared to the present, the profit may become bigger permanently. This is ridiculous btw. So most of the miners will prefer to hold and even buy bitcoins in order to reach better price. With or without Jihan - they need at least 4x times increase i.e. around 30K price, to keep the hopes of ROI and further profit.

Bitmain probably doesn't give a shit about the plight of the miners that they sell their product to. Bitmain has their own huge mining farms and I suspect that they put the latest and the greatest of their ASICS to good use well before releasing them to the public. When Bitmain finally releases a product to the public, they are basically only throwing the rest of us a bone. Probably to make them feel like they are the good guys.  
You are probably correct that it doesn't make much sense to pump up BCH, since their current difficulty algo changes with every single block. I doubt that they have the resources necessary to actually have BCH overtake BTC. Ver, faketoshi and Wu sure have been giving it their best shot for almost 11 months now and have still are not even close to succeeding.

[El duderino_]

QUICK list 12288 is finisht GOOD LUCK   WO's

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23/06/2021 fortune143             

[bones261]

I am thinking that these bearwhales are looking to push this price down to about the $68xx range until they are satisfied. Hope they don't have the ammo to push even lower than that.

[Searing]

I am thinking that these bearwhales are looking to push this price down to about the $68xx range until they are satisfied. Hope they don't have the ammo to push even lower than that.

All evidence..seems to point that they do have such ammo....

[FractalUniverse]

Now everyone here seems to think its going to go down. depressing..

GOOD Time for a huge surprise short squeeze  

[Searing]

yep..that is pretty much true....I ONLY had the miner....from that miner to pump the income (yep legal with IRS too from day one) for ALL the stuff you mentioned flowed from this income...I worked with disabled

folk...never a lot of money in that ..thus the mining had

to stand on its own....also remember I fired up this KNC Jupiter BTC miner on Oct 18th 2013 and that day BTC was almost exactly $150 (I looked at worldcoinindex..but they don't go back till 2013 or I can't read

the graph) .....and I think (again if I remember right) I was making ONE BTC per day.....

and yeah, mostly was in HODL mode for everything ...except those things that were for mining....I also have a mess of Altcoins that more than make up for what you are talking about...for any 'slush' after the

BTC stuff...

so yeah, a case could be made that REALLY the only money I have in crypto 'out of my job' was the $5,131.80 usd for the KNC Jupiter of 2013.......so the revenue I have used/bought miners with etc...and what

I have left over in HODL mode..is indeed profits....thus a case again could be made that I 'mentally' could claim that anything above the $5,131.80 was profit..in that all the expenses for future expansion came

from that one machine....thus $513.18 BTC would be the most definative extreme example of denial of loss of $$$ after any number under that point for BTC (again not counting the significant ALT's slush on

the assumption I'd sell all that before getting to such an extreme point...

just the way it worked out....I retired as of 1/14/18 this year due to crypto...trying to use crypto to bridge the gap between 63 years and full retirement and traditional investments at 66 with soc sec etc

same 'dubious' lifestyle' $$$ wise if I 1) work 2) use crypto till 66 3) crypto goes tulips after 66 again, same modest dubious suburban ghetto lifestyle

so if it all goes tulips I am going to make t-shirts to befuddle those who will say 'I told you so' that say


Crypto: Allowed me to retire 3 years early, bite me!

Thus, if nothing else comes from the miracle of tripping over BTC in 2013....I can say at least that I man'd up and gave it my all....hell, I'm 63 years old ...I have worse problems then BTC and crypto going tulips!

(what do they say: write a book, plant a tree, make a fortune and lose a fortune......we will be the first to know I guess)

brad
 

p.s. the above while not exactly correct....is a way to look at it from the perspective of which I started.....(in the PSU's I'll have left over alone!) but as a mental viewpoint on the ups and downs of all this

stuff and how serious to take it all..it works for me. Also as far as the work/time thing...even if it all goes tulips..I have not had this much fun since I was in University....thus it is a win also.

So if I understand it correctly, $513 is just a symbolic price point of your choosing that doesn't take into account alts and other profits. It's not that it is the right way to calculate a "break even" but if it works for ya who am I to say

If it, somehow, made you reach your retirement plan years early than you thought, then it already gave you some.

I also have a FAKE "break even" price which is the BTC price at the LAST time I sent FIAT to an exchange (just before the Bcash fork). If it ever reaches that price again (around $3000?) I will just send more FIAT and keep with my accumulation plan. In the meantime I just keep slowly increasing my stash by not withdrawing anything and trading.

Agreed on the time invested as some combination of entertainment and education "profit". I learned a lot about "money" in here which made me change some previous assumptions I had. It's been an interesting journey.... let's see what comes in the following years.

Actually, IF all the money I've made so far has come from the mining aspect that started with the knc jupiter miner at $5,131.80 price...thus my $513.18 low on BTC and still 'mentally' say all is good..

from a HODL point of view...that is how I look at it..IF I add the Alts and electrical panel and wiring and psu's left over when mining is done and all that ...it probably would be equiv to less than the $513.18 low

the catch is ...ALL MY MONEY MADE IN WHATEVER MANNER HAS COME FROM THAT FIRST MINER AND ONWARD...i may have some extra laptops and junk left over if btc goes tulips and not counting the alts

which I plan to spend on my 3 years early retirement (if the hoard lasts that long)

thus yeah as a 'mental exercise' for me to at least HODL my hard earned BTC over 5 years..that is the plan....(if I ride it down to doom) of course, I'm hoping 'eventually' it gets back to an All time high

so if crypto survives, it should get back to an all time high of 18k for a BTC it may take 1-20 years....but if it exists it should do that (even if it is all inflation)

if it does not..then my bet on HODL'ing the BTC and spending the rest from the mining is moot...

but my main thread again is, the 'extra cash' made all came from that first miner and onwards and upwards...NONE of my regular income was put into this stuff (my income was too puny)

so if I only paid $5,131.80 for a knc jupiter miner in 2013...and all that has been bought and used etc since then came out of mining onward and upward from that....

the worse you can say is I probably should have held btc and sold some in 2017 and stopped buying miners after July 2017....but the fact remains...anything I have of any note....old asic's psu's better electrical panel

in the basement etc...all has started from that first bit of seed money in the knc jupiter btc miner of 2013

so hell, if it all goes tulips it was a lot of fun...but as again a 'mental game' it can be looked at that way....(also could be looked at of having 2x the BTC in 2017...but them's the breaks)

anyway, so the distorted way my mind works looking at wtf I've been doing the last 5 years in retrospect....

brad

[Torque]

My my, look at all the compression this past week.

Someone is definitely trying to hold things down, mini dumps, trying to push it down further...

The float on all the exchanges is probably thinning out too.

[TERA2]

Its not a conspiracy. Its not a master entity somehow doing perfectly timed dumps and orders to 'hold it down' as if such a thing would even work. Its not the godfather. Its not god. Its not aliens. Its just normal trading. Ok.

[savetherainforest]

Bob is gay AF after bogdanovfs...

TBH, I find facial cosmetic surgery, to the extent the Bogdanov's have undergone, as hideous, and firmly enters the uncanny valley territory.

I put them in the same category as Jocelyn Wildenstein when it comes to affronts to the human form.

As a meme, the Bogdanovs are comedy gold.

As physical, living beings, I am actually repulsed by them.

To insist on having cosmetic surgery done, to the extent they have, usually speaks to deeper underlying mental-health issues, IMO.

I expect synthoil injections into their pecs and biceps is on the menu for them at some point...

Yep.... ... they weak, fragile & mentally unstable. The true path is of the breatharian!

[Torque]

Its not a conspiracy. Its not a master entity somehow doing perfectly timed dumps and orders to 'hold it down' as if such a thing would even work. Its not the godfather. Its not god. Its not aliens. Its just normal trading. Ok.

[JayJuanGee]

    No one is forced to contribute to a 401k. If your employer offers a 401K, they can take money out of your paycheck, and the tax on that amount will be deferred until you withdraw from your 401K. If you draw out of your 401K before retirement age of 59 1/2, you will have to pay a penalty of 10% on top of the tax. Many employers that offer a 401k also include a match. Most companies match 50% of what the employee contributes. The catch is that you usually have to work for an employer for a certain amount of time before you are fully vested and can claim this portion if you leave the employer. My employer has a vesting schedule of 5 years. 

There is quite a bit of latitude with employers in how they create the 401k plans - and sure there are standards in place too.

Since about the 90s, many employers have begun to provide 401ks to replace traditional pension plans... Sure there are some employers who have both traditional pension plans and a 401k plan.

The matching portion is also variable, and most employers have limits in how much they match... They might match up to a certain amount per year or they might match a certain percentage of the employees voluntary contribution.

In the early days of 401ks in the 90s, the yearly maximum contribution was something like $5k, and currently it is in the $18k per year range.  There may be a few employers who will match the full $18k, but many of them are much more skimpy, if they actually have matching programs at all.

401ks are still a pretty decent investment because of both the tax deferral aspect and the employer matching, if they have such matching.

[Searing]

    No one is forced to contribute to a 401k. If your employer offers a 401K, they can take money out of your paycheck, and the tax on that amount will be deferred until you withdraw from your 401K. If you draw out of your 401K before retirement age of 59 1/2, you will have to pay a penalty of 10% on top of the tax. Many employers that offer a 401k also include a match. Most companies match 50% of what the employee contributes. The catch is that you usually have to work for an employer for a certain amount of time before you are fully vested and can claim this portion if you leave the employer. My employer has a vesting schedule of 5 years. 

There is quite a bit of latitude with employers in how they create the 401k plans - and sure there are standards in place too.

Since about the 90s, many employers have begun to provide 401ks to replace traditional pension plans... Sure there are some employers who have both traditional pension plans and a 401k plan.

The matching portion is also variable, and most employers have limits in how much they match... They might match up to a certain amount per year or they might match a certain percentage of the employees voluntary contribution.

In the early days of 401ks in the 90s, the yearly maximum contribution was something like $5k, and currently it is in the $18k per year range.  There may be a few employers who will match the full $18k, but many of them are much more skimpy, if they actually have matching programs at all.

401ks are still a pretty decent investment because of both the tax deferral aspect and the employer matching, if they have such matching.

before I retired I put money in the job 401k I also, according to the CPA am allowed to self-fund a solo401k on top of that ..depending on how much I mine

out of the crypto business part of my taxes....so socked another 15k away that way last year...also the solo401k can be converted to crypto etc as long as

it plays nice in its own 'sandbox' ...so that was a win....just something to keep in mind...also the self-employed solo401k has the advantage as the 'employer'

*yourself* you get and can put aside some also as you are also the *employee* so the amount in a solo401k can be quite a bit more than a simple 401k

anyway, look around...worked great for me

[El duderino_]

Erdogan calls for all the Turks too convert there dollars-euro’s into lira ..... buy bitcoin Turks ..... especially on a dip... BTFD Turks

[Lontonbit]

Polo just stripped it’s users of there freedom today. Bitfinex did it last week, big things are happening behind the scenes. Get ready! Something big is happening.

[infofront]

Polo just stripped it’s users of there freedom today. Bitfinex did it last week, big things are happening behind the scenes. Get ready! Something big is happening.

What happened with Polo?

[RoomBot]

at least the dial doesnt go to "11"

"At least the dial isn't on "11."