Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I think the pain is just beginning.

And here I thought I was a waffler..     That was less than a hour for a 180...   Thats pretty good even for WO standards.  /s

I posted the HODL meme for emotional support for all the HODLers because it was looking bad. Bad financial advice? Probably.
However, I was a bear yesterday, and am a bear today.  

This will be my first publicly announce without minus merit distribution... .. which negative goes to bear converts (even if merely a temporary status).

Long term bull, as always. Short term still bearish. Send all the negative merits my way!

The most important part of my earlier post was the image...   Now I have to post the image twice, just to get back at you....





If you don't "snap out" of your bearish sentiment, infofront, I'm going to request a jello fight with between you and yefi.   

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[theymos]

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

[JayJuanGee]

2) regarding running out of fiat. I kind of understand that position, but I don't think that it is a good practice to run out of fiat... If there is any cash flow coming in, then that fiat can be saved.. just in case there is more dip... On the other hand, there could be some luck that this largely $6500 support will hold or at least support at $6k will hold.. I tentatively believe the odds are a bit less than 50/50 for holding... but as we all know, we have already had about 3 or perhaps 4 tests of this price arena... and support does seem to be pretty strong around this area... which kind of makes the breaking of support scenario to be a bit more scary, if it were to happen.  Personally, I would rather NOT have to use any more of my fiat to continue to buy BTC on the way down.. so I would be perfectly happy with this price area holding.  Currently, I have pretty solid buy orders down to about $4k, but I would likely have to scramble if prices were to go below $4k to think about and to consider how to set up my buy orders with the current fiat reserves that I have.  Probably, I am not going to set up those buy orders until the price goes below $6k (that is if it does go below $6k.. so, certainly, I am in a kind of "compelled to watch" position right now.. and nervous for me an likely a lot of peeps - understandably especially for those who have already completely run out of fiat).

I learn a lot from you JJG, but as every apprentice I do make mistakes.  Hoping to not repeat them, which is the hard part!

Part of the reason that I post so much is that I am trying to teach and to reinforce principles for myself.

It is really hard to theorize about a system and also to put such system into practice in the real world because so often the BTC market goes way beyond expectations (in both directions).  Also, when you are making and tweaking your system, you are engaging in such practices to tailor for yourself and for nobody else.

I will tell you (and anyone else who wants to read) that the move up from $5,000 to $19k surely made the whole situation a lot easier for me to follow because that particular move created so much surplus value in the 3x to 5x territory for me beyond even the most bullish of previous expectations - but even with such bullish outperformance of expectations, errors can be made (still) and a lot of practice remains necessary to force each of us into following a system and to make various tweaks here and there along the way in order that each of us is able to visualize extreme BTC price moves in either direction that also allows that each of us is not going to run out of money (fiat or BTC) in either BTC price direction.

In other words, easier said than done.. and practice, practice and practice.  tweak, tweak and tweak and hopefully learn little things along the way (don't be shooting for BIG learning, otherwise you are likely to digress into gambling rather than learning).

[yefi]

If you don't "snap out" of your bearish sentiment, infofront, I'm going to request a jello fight with between you and yefi.   

...and you say you're not interested in penises

[JayJuanGee]

I largely agree that Buy and HODL can be a very profitable strategy in bitcoin; however, I personally believe that skimming a little bit on the way up is a more prudent strategy to insure yourself from some of the downside risk and to psychologically help during the likely inevitable weak hands shaking out periods that can last much longer than expected.

On the hand, I get a little bit perturbed by toknormal and some of his ilk who seem to be suggesting a kind of downside inevitability that likely scares folks into making bad decisions by either selling or failing to buy... They have been so wrong in the past, too, but still they like to spin their more downside TA theories without really acknowledging how frequently they have been wrong in the past and failing to account for the exponential price s-curve dynamics that could cause their TA to fail to account for their projected TA dip not to materialize in the real world.

I believe this is the last drop before the next bull run. Be careful though, the next bull run will likely end just as quick as it began. My immediate forecast is a doubling from the current price over the next 37 days. Followed by a 6-8 month decline that resembles 2014-2015.
But I seem to be correct only 53% of the time unless you count the last 3 predictions. April 6, Mid-May, and June 10.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg37618728#msg37618728 if you quote it, you will see the message after the last period.

Aren't these exact date specific predictions just stabs in the dark anyhow?  Why does it matter, and who really cares if you happen to get the prediction right or not?

Of course, there are various methods to attempt to trade these kinds of price points, but isn't a more blind method better in terms of how much time and psychology is saved from employing something that works no matter the price direction and the extreme movements that have decent chances of being wrong and creating more unnecessary stress?

Yes, I understand that some folks like to gamble, so I suppose to each his own in that regard.  Personally, I get much more comfort from attempting to employ a strategy that aims to lessen the gambling component, to the extent feasible and reasonable.

[JayJuanGee]

If you don't "snap out" of your bearish sentiment, infofront, I'm going to request a jello fight with between you and yefi.   

...and you say you're not interested in penises

I am so embarrassing for you......


have to drag my "clean" jello proposal into the gutter.   

[Rosewater Foundation]

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

Doom isn't really a number. This is why I have such a hard time with the poll we already have.

[JayJuanGee]

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

I'm not a programmer, but I am imagining that you are contemplating some kind of algorithm that takes from the posted words in the WO thread to give each poster a speculation direction score or price prediction accuracy score?

That seems to be an even more difficult algorithm than programming a chartbuddy 2, which has been lacking in this thread for more than two years since RichieT's "rage quit." 

[centralbanksequalsbombs]

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

Great idea - thank you Theymos;

A couple of suggested criterion for anyone working on this:
1) biggest issue here is if someone games the code to manipulate results - thus OPEN SOURCE
2) price prediction must be matched with a time frame - once price hit, +1 score? or would those game this by playing volatility and pick a price close to current price? (must be atleast a # % away from current price?)
3) negative scores for incorrect predictions

[BitcoinNewbie15]

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

That seems to be an even more difficult algorithm than programming a chartbuddy 2, which has been lacking in this thread for more than two years since RichieT's "rage quit." 

Thank you lol, I have finally gotten my answer on this. Chartbuddy used to post in this thread all the time years ago, and when I finally came back to the forum recently I noticed it was gone. I have been wondering what happened to it!

At least now I have some closure  lol

[d_eddie]

Yes, I understand that some folks like to gamble, so I suppose to each his own in that regard.  Personally, I get much more comfort from attempting to employ a strategy that aims to lessen the gambling component, to the extent feasible and reasonable.

I concur. I found a way to move in that direction that is working for me at the moment. My safety short, dictated by dreams of mammoths, has been exactly that: an attempt to lessen the gambling component, more than an actual bet.

A successful attempt, I should add. Had it gone really wrong, I'd have lost some 20-30% of my play money - which isn't that much anyway. I purposefully set my stops in advance (ballpark, tweakable stops) to avoid falling prey to emotions. Luckily, it went well. The mammoths weren't playing games with me. I more than doubled my play money, and I haven't even fully closed the position yet. Maybe I'll manage to rebuild a larger position (at a lower, more dangerous entry level), but only if we see a few up runs - and if I get a little lucky in timing.

My language is that of a gambler, granted  - "dangerous... if... little lucky...", but the attitude is more like that of a safety game in bridge: You give up the best possible outcome to mitigate the worst. For my short to fail, the price had to go over 12k. Isn't this kind of "bet" sensible?

[vapourminer]

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

I'm not a programmer, but I am imagining that you are contemplating some kind of algorithm that takes from the posted words in the WO thread to give each poster a speculation direction score or price prediction accuracy score?

That seems to be an even more difficult algorithm than programming a chartbuddy 2, which has been lacking in this thread for more than two years since RichieT's "rage quit." 

cool idea.

could be as simple as parsing for the phrase "my speculation price: $xxxxx" or something in a post. everyone who wants to play just adds that phrase and a price in their post.

unless im reading this wrong, which is always a strong possibility with me.

[Last of the V8s]

[centralbanksequalsbombs]

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

Great idea - thank you Theymos;

A couple of suggested criterion for anyone working on this:
1) biggest issue here is if someone games the code to manipulate results - thus OPEN SOURCE
2) price prediction must be matched with a time frame - once price hit, +1 score? or would those game this by playing volatility and pick a price close to current price? (must be atleast a # % away from current price?)
3) negative scores for incorrect predictions

On the topic of predictions, lightning network for Bitcoin will fan more fire for the blazing Bitcoin revolution....I predict Bitcoin at 14k within 18months, 20k within 26months, 35k within 48months, 50k within 60months

Onto scamcoins update TODAY:

[SNIP]

UPDATE:
[SNIP]

UPDATE:

[SNIP]

UPDATE:


as noted above 'combination' = BTG + litecoin + monero + vertcoin + groestlcoin
predicted to be become 5x BCH's market value

Predicting Bitcoin Cash (BCH) will be the worst and will fall in relative terms while everything else grows relative to BCH.

Real Bitcoin is most superior in store of value now and going forward - lightning network emerging!

Lightning network and Bitcoin's superiority will be the story of the year. Altcoins have experienced and may likely continue to experience a relative death.

Will reiterate - great entry point to buy Bitcoin at these levels.

[4rt3m]

Just start with a forum competition: big announce for all forum including locals, make Google form with price prediction at the end of the week and username > Google spreadsheets. Prediction +/- 5% of actual price gives 3 points, 10% – 2 points, 15% – 1 point, less than 1% is 5 points. At the end of the month 50% highest score owners goes in the next round (month). Top 10 receives a traders rank with 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points system.

[theymos]

I'm not a programmer, but I am imagining that you are contemplating some kind of algorithm that takes from the posted words in the WO thread to give each poster a speculation direction score or price prediction accuracy score?

No, I'm imagining a game that's at least somewhat separate from normal posts. At the very least you'd have to specifically indicate your prediction in your post contents so that the system could understand. (But I'm really imagining a separate website that's not linked to posts.)

Interpreting post contents is too difficult. Modern AI is powerful enough that you could probably do it with >90% accuracy, but it'd still be too inaccurate to actually be satisfying, and designing and training an AI to be even halfway decent would take tons of time.

2) price prediction must be matched with a time frame - once price hit, +1 score? or would those game this by playing volatility and pick a price close to current price? (must be atleast a # % away from current price?)

There are many possible ways of doing it. If I were to create the game, I think I'd do it in the style of parimutuel betting, but using play-money chips. So:
 - If you're willing to bet at least 10 chips, you could create a new prediction, like "I predict that the price will be between x and y at time t".
 - People could bet on either side of existing predictions.
 - Once the prediction is decided, the chips of the wrong side would be distributed amongst the betters on the right side, somewhat-proportionally to their respective bets. However, the rewards formula would need to give more reward to people who placed bets earlier than others. (You could copy the rewards formula from one of the existing parimutuel betting sites.)
 - Whenever you have less than 10 chips, you're given chips so that you have 10 chips. So even if you're constantly wrong, you can still keep playing.
 - Your speculation score equals your current number of chips.

It sounds like it'd be fun to write the game as I described, but it'd probably take me ~40 hours, and I just can't spend that kind of time on such a niche feature.

Just start with a forum competition: big announce for all forum including locals, make Google form with price prediction at the end of the week and username > Google spreadsheets. Prediction +/- 5% of actual price gives 3 points, 10% – 2 points, 15% – 1 point, less than 1% is 5 points. At the end of the month 50% highest score owners goes in the next round (month). Top 10 receives a traders rank with 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points system.

Something like that would be fine, but I don't want to run any manual competitions. If someone wants to do that, you'd just have to create an unchanging URL from which the forum can automatically import scores.

[Vin]

Sold all of my BTC now.
 

This is the end.

[Raja_MBZ]

Sold all of my BTC now.
 

This is the end.

A message like this from a "legendary" confirms this really is the bottom.

EDIT: seems like you're a "hero" but how in the world you've more than a thousand merit and still just a Hero?

[Vin]

Sold all of my BTC now.
 
This is the end.

Do you own one of these perchance ?

I like this hat : )

[Vin]

Sold all of my BTC now.
 

This is the end.

A message like this from a "legendary" confirms this really is the bottom.

EDIT: seems like you're a "hero" but how in the world you've more than a thousand merit and still just a Hero?

I don`t not know @Raja

Just make a joke nothing else.

*Sorry for this*