Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

Any old school hodlers cracked yet?

You’re joking right?

Why would someone holding since $1,$10 or $100 sell now?

Because they could be as rich as they feel that they need to be at 6000 but maybe not at 1000? It was just a question... I don't watch this thing 24/7 like some people.

What? You’ve been around for years. You are an old timer. You just trolling?

You say it like it's a crazy question but even if not yet I bet some people start to crack at <3000 for sure.

What? You know the routine. If they didn’t crack at $150 then they aren’t cracking at $3000. Where’d you crack at?

I don't think I'm what you would call a hodler. I always take profit at new all time highs. I took profit at 1000 when it ran up to 1200 and 2000 when it ran up to 3000 and 17000 when it ran up to 20000.

Big mistakes of course in retrospect but I like to think that I may be the last one laughing in the end. Only time will tell that one though.

How could that ever make you the last one laughing? Unless you are selling each time and rebuying back in lower.  Taking profits is great, as long as you have preset price targets you are happy with. I think most old timers have a target they want to hit and wait patiently for it. Some of course will never sell. I don’t think most holders panic on the way down. Why would they start now after years of not doing so.

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[windjc]

We go under $6k and I'm calling it. Game over.

We may actually need to go through the same 2 year down time like the last two times so that when we get back to ATH again people aren't selling all of their coins so they can "break even". Need to shake them all out before we can move forward.

I was worried then I remembered I am a minimalist...I only need money for food and rent for the next 2 years.

Waiting two years is not game over. It’s a minor inconvenience.

[Anon136]

How could that ever make you the last one laughing? Unless you are selling each time and rebuying back in lower.  Taking profits is great, as long as you have preset price targets you are happy with. I think most old timers have a target they want to hit and wait patiently for it. Some of course will never sell. I don’t think most holders panic on the way down. Why would they start now after years of not doing so.

I guess maybe what's different this time is that a lot of people will be going from being rich to not. When your 100,000 dollars went down to 10,000 dollars it's just meh. When your 10 million goes down to 1 million, that's... harder.

[Elwar]

Waiting two years is not game over. It’s a minor inconvenience.

Game over for any type of ATH between now and halving.

Do not mind the capitulation talk...showing the blood on the streets is a good thing.

[windjc]

How could that ever make you the last one laughing? Unless you are selling each time and rebuying back in lower.  Taking profits is great, as long as you have preset price targets you are happy with. I think most old timers have a target they want to hit and wait patiently for it. Some of course will never sell. I don’t think most holders panic on the way down. Why would they start now after years of not doing so.

I guess maybe what's different this time is that a lot of people will be going from being rich to not. When your 100,000 dollars went down to 10,000 dollars it's just meh. When your 10 million goes down to 1 million, that's... harder.

My nine figures went to eight figures. I feel fine. I see your point, but one could just as easily argue that holders are playing with even more house money.

[realr0ach]

When your 100,000 dollars went down to 10,000 dollars it's just meh. When your 10 million goes down to 1 million, that's... harder.

I'd say it would probably be a lot worse going from $100k to $10k.  Also, a lot of people on this forum don't seem to understand bitcoin might still be in the $200-$1000 range without the enormous amount of Bitfinex and Chinese exchange fraud.  I mean, it's 100% fact that the entire market has been controlled by a single entity operating on Bitfinex since the price was $200.  This entity is either the exchange owners themselves or the Chinese mining cartel who operates in league with the exchange owners while getting kickbacks, or some giant whale like the ESF/Goldman Sachs rigging the market while issuing gag orders.

If this manipulation is removed or implodes, people calling for $3k bottom might be high balling it by a lot and the thing could crater down into the hundreds of dollars again.  It feels like to me though that the shitcoin market is being artificially propped up to try and distract people from gold and silver on purpose.  The next bull run on metals will probably break the bank so to speak from failure to deliver in LBMA/Comex/etc.

[windjc]

When your 100,000 dollars went down to 10,000 dollars it's just meh. When your 10 million goes down to 1 million, that's... harder.

I'd say it would probably be a lot worse going from $100k to $10k.  Also, a lot of people on this forum don't seem to understand bitcoin might still be in the $200-$1000 range without the enormous amount of Bitfinex and Chinese exchange fraud.  I mean, it's 100% fact that the entire market has been controlled by a single entity operating on Bitfinex since the price was $200.  This entity is either the exchange owners themselves or the Chinese mining cartel who operates in league with the exchange owners while getting kickbacks, or some giant whale like the ESF/Goldman Sachs rigging the market.

If this manipulation is removed or implodes, people calling for $3k bottom might be high balling it by a lot and the thing could crater down into the hundreds of dollars again.  It feels like to me though that the shitcoin market is being artificially propped up to try and distract people from gold and silver on purpose.  The next bull run on metals will probably break the bank so to speak from failure to deliver in LBMA/Comex/etc.

Roach, where do you live?

[realr0ach]

When your 100,000 dollars went down to 10,000 dollars it's just meh. When your 10 million goes down to 1 million, that's... harder.

I'd say it would probably be a lot worse going from $100k to $10k.  Also, a lot of people on this forum don't seem to understand bitcoin might still be in the $200-$1000 range without the enormous amount of Bitfinex and Chinese exchange fraud.  I mean, it's 100% fact that the entire market has been controlled by a single entity operating on Bitfinex since the price was $200.  This entity is either the exchange owners themselves or the Chinese mining cartel who operates in league with the exchange owners while getting kickbacks, or some giant whale like the ESF/Goldman Sachs rigging the market.

If this manipulation is removed or implodes, people calling for $3k bottom might be high balling it by a lot and the thing could crater down into the hundreds of dollars again.  It feels like to me though that the shitcoin market is being artificially propped up to try and distract people from gold and silver on purpose.  The next bull run on metals will probably break the bank so to speak from failure to deliver in LBMA/Comex/etc.

Roach, where do you live?

In a r0ach nest?

[windjc]

When your 100,000 dollars went down to 10,000 dollars it's just meh. When your 10 million goes down to 1 million, that's... harder.

I'd say it would probably be a lot worse going from $100k to $10k.  Also, a lot of people on this forum don't seem to understand bitcoin might still be in the $200-$1000 range without the enormous amount of Bitfinex and Chinese exchange fraud.  I mean, it's 100% fact that the entire market has been controlled by a single entity operating on Bitfinex since the price was $200.  This entity is either the exchange owners themselves or the Chinese mining cartel who operates in league with the exchange owners while getting kickbacks, or some giant whale like the ESF/Goldman Sachs rigging the market.

If this manipulation is removed or implodes, people calling for $3k bottom might be high balling it by a lot and the thing could crater down into the hundreds of dollars again.  It feels like to me though that the shitcoin market is being artificially propped up to try and distract people from gold and silver on purpose.  The next bull run on metals will probably break the bank so to speak from failure to deliver in LBMA/Comex/etc.

Roach, where do you live?

In a r0ach nest?

What country do you live in? Also what is your ethnicity and age?

[jojo69]

It's just too hard to crack, climbing the volcano, diving the marianas trench, calibrating the electron microscope...just too difficult to embark on on a whim

[windjc]

It's just too hard to crack, climbing the volcano, diving the marianas trench, calibrating the electron microscope...just too difficult to embark on on a whim

What "it" are you referring to?

[jojo69]

It's just too hard to crack, climbing the volcano, diving the marianas trench, calibrating the electron microscope...just too difficult to embark on on a whim

What "it" are you referring to?

sorry, I was responding to Anon's question about "cracking", selling in dispair

[xhomerx10]

[Paashaas]

2 a 3 bullruns before hitting $100k.

[JayJuanGee]

Yes, I understand that some folks like to gamble, so I suppose to each his own in that regard.  Personally, I get much more comfort from attempting to employ a strategy that aims to lessen the gambling component, to the extent feasible and reasonable.

I concur. I found a way to move in that direction that is working for me at the moment. My safety short, dictated by dreams of mammoths, has been exactly that: an attempt to lessen the gambling component, more than an actual bet.

From your previous description of the way that you were attempting to employ margin (really shorting), seemed to be a more reasonable and measured way than most of the seemingly all or nothing descriptions that I hear about.

A successful attempt, I should add. Had it gone really wrong, I'd have lost some 20-30% of my play money - which isn't that much anyway.

It seems that you had employed a strategy that was to consider the ramifications of either price direction, and of course when any of us hedge our bets, we are not going to win as much as if we were playing an all or nothing strategy - even while we are creating insurance, too, yet on the other hand, I, personally, believe that hedging is a much more solid long term play - both psychologically and financially, because if you add up the wins and losses (if you are being honest with yourself), you are much more likely to come out ahead and even willing to invest more if you are playing with strategies that both account for either price direction and don't play balls to the walls.

I purposefully set my stops in advance (ballpark, tweakable stops) to avoid falling prey to emotions. Luckily, it went well. The mammoths weren't playing games with me.

Well, yes.  One of the recognizable problems is that whales will sometimes push the price in the opposite direction of your margin bets, which cause your stops to get played and then the market quickly reverses.  Even though you did not have that issue in recent times, the practice of forcing stop losses needs to be appreciated as an ongoing possibility that could cause you to buy or sell at a time that has been manipulated and it certainly not of your chosing.

I more than doubled my play money, and I haven't even fully closed the position yet. Maybe I'll manage to rebuild a larger position (at a lower, more dangerous entry level), but only if we see a few up runs - and if I get a little lucky in timing.

Sometimes you can vastly increase your "play money" while also skimming a little bit off the top to put into reserves.  Of course, how you play your money remains discretionary, and if you develop good safeguarding practices, it is not too likely that all of a sudden you are going to revert to reckless gambling practices... and as we know there is another saying, which is "the rich become richer".. or put another way "you gotta to have money to make money".. there is some truth to those idioms..

My language is that of a gambler, granted  - "dangerous... if... little lucky...", but the attitude is more like that of a safety game in bridge: You give up the best possible outcome to mitigate the worst. For my short to fail, the price had to go over 12k. Isn't this kind of "bet" sensible?

Actually, don't get my prudish talk wrong because I am not opposed to gambling with some of the winnings and especially if you have already taken several safeguards to ensure that your bills are going to be paid for several months in advance and you are not dipping into "emergency money."   Frequently, we hear about folks who "had to" sell at the bottom because of an "unexpected emergency."  We are frequently going to have "emergencies" and they should be factored into any plan because failing to plan only causes an excuse about an "emergency" that could have and should have been anticipated to be within the realm of possibilities... so yeah, in short, I believe that there are prudent ways that you can set up your bets and to play possibilities that would likely pay off better in one direction rather than the other direction... but you are really not going to be devastated if the market goes against you.. which in the end adds up to a kind of "sensible" bet.

[jbreher]

fuck this shit! i sold everything at $6480

Too bad, so sad.

Can it go down further? Perhaps. Will it? Maybe. But sure as shit, it'll come roaring back, and you'll be out in the cold.

Hell, we were at this level just two months ago. Grow some stones, ninnies.

Did you nibble on some of the wrong mushrooms on your bearish adventures?

Bearish? I'm being typecast!

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

unless im reading this wrong, which is always a strong possibility with me.

You are reading your contribution(s) too modestly... .. 


I have another hobby besides bitcoin that requires a certain amount of practice and improvement that comes with experience. 

A common used expression in that hobby is "fake it until you make it,"  which I have found works for a lot of hobbies.

[jbreher]

Thank you lol, I have finally gotten my answer on this. Chartbuddy used to post in this thread all the time years ago, and when I finally came back to the forum recently I noticed it was gone. I have been wondering what happened to it!

At least now I have some closure  lol

Chartbuddy's creator was burned at the stake, accused of heresy. Though he escaped with his life, and continues tracking the markets for all to see in a more hospitable environment.

[becoin]

*edit* I'll say this though. It gives me the luxury of feeling ok right now. The habitual taking of profit gives me the ability to stay calm

I always calculate my profit in bitcoins. I feel ok if today I have more bitcoins than I had yesterday. The habitual taking of profit in bitcoins gives me the ability to stay calm.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

EDIT: seems like you're a "hero" but how in the world you've more than a thousand merit and still just a Hero?

In the initial January 24 merit distribution, theymos gave 500 merits to all hero members; however, about two weeks later, he rethought his initial distribution decision, and he decided to give an additional 500 merit (initial distribution) to all hero members who had at least 778 activity points at the time of the 1/24 initial distribution. 

Theymos concluded that the additional 500 initial distribution merits would be more fair concerning those higher activity level hero members, perhaps partly based on the quirky and quasi-random way that the forum's algorithm ranks up from hero to legendary, which can take place anywhere between 778 and 1100 activity points (something like that).