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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336559 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
xhomerx10
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June 20, 2018, 02:46:48 AM

Miners don't need anything like $6000/BTC to remain profitable.

I'd put it closer to $2000, even lower if you take the money laundering angle into account.

 Let's try to figure this out.

...

  US $2045.18

...


Thanks for the analysis. While it should be obvious to most, this model employs electricity as the only cost to mining. Of course, we know this is not the case. I wouldn't know what capital acquisition, cooling, rent, plant, maintenance, labor, etc might add to the cost.

 Well, it's easy to calculate the electricity costs since the miner efficiency is known.  

 Take the cost of Canaan's Avalon 841 Bitcoin miner @ $710 with a MOQ of 40 as an example.  At today's difficulty it would take over 300 days with the ultra low Hydro-Quebec rate I cited earlier to cover the cost of the miners after paying only electricity.  Today's difficulty is key here - it only rises which proportionally increases the time to recoup the cost of the miner. Without even considering the other costs you cited, I don't see a viable business model.  I believe that only the manufacturers of miners are able to do this and the ones who sell batches to the public to offset their costs probably have a leg up on those that do not.

 Suffice it to say that my electricity-cost-only to mine a Bitcoin with a 0.1 J/GH machine would be slightly over US$6600 today but I haven't mined Bitcoin since the days of the KNC Jupiter.

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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin Core, which will follow the rules of the network no matter what miners do. Even if every miner decided to create 1000 bitcoins per block, full nodes would stick to the rules and reject those blocks.
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June 20, 2018, 02:57:25 AM


Today on twitter I saw some EOS shill respond to one of Szabo's posts and call him a "fucktard".

https://twitter.com/NickSzabo4/status/1008974899690463232


jesus fucking christ

the fail is strong with this one

The whole thread is fail because Szabo pretends bitcoin isn't designed to centralize, thus giving you the exact same problem he complains about EOS having.  There is NO real world outcome in which mining doesn't become insanely centralized in a few giant warehouses.  Those giant warehouses are just enormous physical attack vectors that the govt knocks on their door and forces AML/KYC on.  Then, all of the same countries like the G7/G20 that have extradition treaties with each other and such, all create a common shared blacklist of coins and you have a permissioned ledger slave system where the govt can just turn off your money at will if the govt doesn't like you and you cease to exist.

That is the exact model of the "new world order" slavery system as described by Aaron Russo:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKeaw7HPG04

So fuck Nick Szabo for shilling for non-fungible trash.  And that's what any non-fungible currency is - trash.  Fungibility is required for it to be money.  It's not money.  It's a system of control.  Your options then become doing something like moving to Monero, but Monero is not really fungible in the first place because any craptocurrency where the protocol can just mutate or fork at random is definitely not fungible even if it has a built in coin 'tumbler'.  'Money' is not allowed to mutate or change at random.  Money is supposed to be boring and unchanging.  That's how it remains fungible.

Then you have the problem that Monero is also just a giant honey trap because if the encryption ever falls apart, it's just a free list of illicit transactions for the govt to rake over.  TLDR:  All cryptocurrencies are garbage.  Buy physical silver.
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June 20, 2018, 03:06:16 AM

It's not money.

You are aware that almost nobody thinks it's money right? Everyone says crypto-currency for a reason.
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June 20, 2018, 03:09:26 AM

It's not money.

You are aware that almost nobody even thinks it's money right? Everyone says crypto-currency for a reason.

There's tons of idiots on this forum and twitter pumpers that claim shitcoins are "money" instead of a currency or as I define it, just a flat out system of control and nothing else.  I also added to the previous post as to why Monero is also not fungible (or any cryptocurrency ever made):

Your options then become doing something like moving to Monero, but Monero is not really fungible in the first place because any craptocurrency where the protocol can just mutate or fork at random is definitely not fungible even if it has a built in coin 'tumbler'.  'Money' is not allowed to mutate or change at random.  Money is supposed to be boring and unchanging.  That's how it remains fungible.

Then you have the problem that Monero is also just a giant honey trap because if the encryption ever falls apart, it's just a free list of illicit transactions for the govt to rake over.  TLDR:  All cryptocurrencies are garbage.  Buy physical silver.
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June 20, 2018, 03:28:02 AM
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There seems to be quite a few of us who have been buying on the way down incrementally, and it seems that after a while, may run out of sellers.

I will concede that my buying has been somewhat more tempered after February 5, because February 5 was the low; therefore, since February 5, I have been selling on the way up and buying on the way back down.  The overall balance would add up to a bit more buying as compared with selling...

I understand that the combined buying adds up, and perhaps after so much back and forth, the bears begin to run out of coins, and become less able to convince folks to part with their coins.

Regarding, you personally, Roach, perhaps this would be a decent time to get back in and redeem yourself, or at least take a partially "in" position.  You may be able to get some BTC cheaper than todays price, but surely no guarantees of such.
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June 20, 2018, 03:41:36 AM
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It's not money.

You are aware that almost nobody thinks it's money right? Everyone says crypto-currency for a reason.

I have come to understand that gold bugs made up this whole list of criteria to define what something needs to be considered money (fungibility, divisibility, can wear it as a necklace, etc.) to conveniently fit all of the characteristics of precious metals.

Money is simply what people agree to use as a medium of exchange to replace bartering. That is all.

There are certainly characteristics that make one form of money preferable, but it does not change the fact that it is money. You had huge rocks that could not be moved that were considered money. Shells were considered money. Metals were considered money. Paper was considered money.

It helps if each of these has the same value which makes it easier to trade. It helps if you can have larger and smaller denominations. It helps if you can pay someone over long distances. It helps if you do not need to pay a lot to secure it. It helps if it's easy to trade from one person to another.

But what it ultimately comes down to is, will someone accept it or not.
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June 20, 2018, 03:42:13 AM

but at the same time, he doesn't need our BTC since he seems to have more than we do, and he's got nothing for sale that we could pay in BTC.

Well, if that BTC-denominated digital music distributor is still in business, you can still by a copy of my CD for 1.2 BTC. I'd even accept 1.2 Segwit coins for a copy.

Smiley

Aren't you undermining your own argument when you are seeming to give the EXACT same value to legacy BTC and segwit tainted coins?  Would you like to specify (or correct yourself) further here, jbear?

Nope. If you want to negotiate with me, I'd be willing to send you a CD of my (charting) album for less than 1 BTC - as long as that BTC isn't tainted by Segwit in its past.

That's better than 17% discount! Such a deal for you!
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June 20, 2018, 03:48:00 AM

but at the same time, he doesn't need our BTC since he seems to have more than we do, and he's got nothing for sale that we could pay in BTC.

Well, if that BTC-denominated digital music distributor is still in business, you can still by a copy of my CD for 1.2 BTC. I'd even accept 1.2 Segwit coins for a copy.

Smiley

Aren't you undermining your own argument when you are seeming to give the EXACT same value to legacy BTC and segwit tainted coins?  Would you like to specify (or correct yourself) further here, jbear?

Nope. If you want to negotiate with me, I'd be willing to send you a CD of my (charting) album for less than 1 BTC - as long as that BTC isn't tainted by Segwit in its past.

That's better than 17% discount! Such a deal for you!

Could I pirate it for free?
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June 20, 2018, 03:53:12 AM

Tldr; security reasons...

So implement Segwit through a mechanism that introduces new attack vectors.

Nope. Still doesn't make sense.

Do you recall how irritated your fuck-buddy, Jihan, was that segwit would no longer allow him to engage in covert ASIC boost? 

Nope.

Jihan isn't my fuck-buddy. Indeed, I've never met the dude.

I don't recall that Segwit no longer allows for ASICboost.

I don't recall any credible evidence that Jihan ever profited from covert ASICboost.

I don't remember any demonstrable irritation on Jihan's part regarding segwit's impact upon ASICboost.

But feel free to bring forth any evidence that might cover my knowledge gaps. (as if)

::ahem!::

More importantly, your deflection has exactly zero to do with the fact that the implementation of Segwit introduced novel attack vectors to Bitcoin. Perhaps we should discuss this first, before deviating to your smokescreen. Hmm?
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June 20, 2018, 03:54:28 AM

Tron bought BitTorrent
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June 20, 2018, 03:55:39 AM

People read about fungibility in Wikipedia and about segwit on bcash blogs and take these crazy conclusions.

People to lazy to read books or good sources of information such as GitHub ... As a result, bad investments, such as bcash.

Yeah, some people here needs to do that ore they need to follow them on Twitter. Valuable information.

More fungibility will be added to Bitcoin with projects like; LN, MAST, Schnorr signature aggregation, MimbleWimble, TumbleBit.

And Segwit opens the door to those projects, it will not only add more fungibility but also lower fee's, privacy, scalability and security.

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June 20, 2018, 03:57:08 AM

Tried to install LN node on my server but I have to run a full node. My server only has 200 Gb.

Is there a preferred way among people without home servers?

While I understand your frustration, 10TiB costs about 0.02 BTC in today's marketplace.
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June 20, 2018, 03:58:04 AM

More Bcash double spendings  Shocked

https://doublespend.cash/
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June 20, 2018, 04:12:46 AM
Last edit: June 20, 2018, 04:24:44 AM by realr0ach

It's not money.

You are aware that almost nobody thinks it's money right? Everyone says crypto-currency for a reason.

I have come to understand that gold bugs made up this whole list of criteria to define what something needs to be considered money (fungibility, divisibility, can wear it as a necklace, etc.) to conveniently fit all of the characteristics of precious metals.

Elwar, stop trolling.  First it's trolling about seasteads, claiming building a floating raft is going to make you exempt from govt control, even though they're not economically viable to build in the first place even IF that was true, now it's trolling about the word "money", bringing the Orwellian tactic that words have no meaning and everything is just subjective.  There's a reason things like fungibility are required, because it's nothing but a system of control and lack of general acceptability without it.
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June 20, 2018, 04:21:38 AM

but at the same time, he doesn't need our BTC since he seems to have more than we do, and he's got nothing for sale that we could pay in BTC.

Well, if that BTC-denominated digital music distributor is still in business, you can still by a copy of my CD for 1.2 BTC. I'd even accept 1.2 Segwit coins for a copy.

Smiley

Aren't you undermining your own argument when you are seeming to give the EXACT same value to legacy BTC and segwit tainted coins?  Would you like to specify (or correct yourself) further here, jbear?

Nope. If you want to negotiate with me, I'd be willing to send you a CD of my (charting) album for less than 1 BTC - as long as that BTC isn't tainted by Segwit in its past.

That's better than 17% discount! Such a deal for you!

O.k.  I understand that the some prices are more subject to negotiation than others, and if you are in a retail store, sometimes they will be wiling to take less for products if you make a reasonable offer.  Of course, a private sale between principles who have the authority to bind the terms will have more flexibility, if they are willing, and when push comes to shove, some terms might be more flexible than others, and perhaps, you might be willing to give a greater value to legacy (non-segwit tainted) coins? But, likely in the end, if we negotiated all of the terms except for whether payment would be by legacy or segwit tainted coins, you may well recognize that the coins have the same value and are likely to have the same value for quite a period into the future - and there may even be times in which segwit coins are going to have more value because they have more flexibility in terms of lower fees, faster transaction times, lightning network compatible and perhaps some multi-sig and other programabilities.  For the sake of this argument, you might posture that the value to you is different, but you have already admitted that you would do the same price in the earlier referenced post.
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June 20, 2018, 04:31:17 AM
Last edit: June 20, 2018, 05:33:14 AM by JayJuanGee

Tldr; security reasons...

So implement Segwit through a mechanism that introduces new attack vectors.

Nope. Still doesn't make sense.

Do you recall how irritated your fuck-buddy, Jihan, was that segwit would no longer allow him to engage in covert ASIC boost?  

Nope.

Jihan isn't my fuck-buddy. Indeed, I've never met the dude.

I don't recall that Segwit no longer allows for ASICboost.

I don't recall any credible evidence that Jihan ever profited from covert ASICboost.

I don't remember any demonstrable irritation on Jihan's part regarding segwit's impact upon ASICboost.

But feel free to bring forth any evidence that might cover my knowledge gaps. (as if)

::ahem!::

More importantly, your deflection has exactly zero to do with the fact that the implementation of Segwit introduced novel attack vectors to Bitcoin. Perhaps we should discuss this first, before deviating to your smokescreen. Hmm?

I thought that we were planning to make up soon and to let bygones be - at least for the time being.

As you should realize, I hardly have any interest in your topic about the supposed many negative aspects of segwit and your supposed understanding of a cost/benefit analysis weighing against segwit.  You probably understand that your segwit bashing is a kind of wheels spinning endeavor that borders on off-topicness and shit coin pumping rather than really attempting to discuss meaningful bitcoin issues... and segwit is a part of bitcoin, not some stupid ass proposal that you would like the community to reject (not even a realistic option).

You can choose to believe what you like in regards to the supposed negative aspects of segwit and to invest into bitcoin or not based on your perception of its direction.  

In essence, I don't expect you to give up on your bitcoin bashing, especially since it seems that you have been attempting to emphasize several supposed bitcoin negativities for quite some time?  2 years or so, perhaps longer?  

I recall  that you got more heavily supportive of some of the segwit bashing in early 2017.. and seems that you were a BIG blocker tard a while before that (perhaps as early as early 2016) and of course when bcash became the preferred BIGBLOCKtards preferred bitcoin bashing vehicle (in July 2017 and moreso thereafter), you certainly jumped onto that attack vector train with seeming ease frequently employing the royal "we" perspective to argue your nonsensical BIGBLOCKER talking points and ongoing harping about the direction of bitcoin (while supposedly still investing in bitcoin as a "hedge?").
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June 20, 2018, 06:04:10 AM

Just realized that Bitcoin's hash rate is up +100% since January 2018 and around +25% since May as well as +15% from two weeks ago.


That's a nice hashrate miners. Those are some nice ASICs.

It would be shame if someone...

changed...

the algorithm.

It's not going to happen, so I don't know what your point is except to bring up something that is not going to happen?

not to be an ass...but actual question...I read someplace a month ago, actually the claim that miners need about $6,600 usd to make profit mining ..this

was for the majority of big BTC miner halls...IF, the price dumps (see LTC) and there is an overabundance of ASIC miners (see LTC) is it not possible that

it could get so bad or centralized (see LTC Bitmain) that perhaps this could be the case? I used LTC as an example ..which is not exactly fair, in that they have

many pow-scrypt coins effected in this manner, not just Bitcoin forks....but there has to reach a point in price vs mining...where it could be you just could NOT

mine coin at a price without having to change algo?

anyway, probably not explained right, but you get the direction...what would it take to change algo on BTC? (if any)



The miner's break even price point speculation is as accurate as top/bottom calling. No one knows and it's different for each miner. As far as algo change, that's a nuclear option, and like the real nuclear weapon just having it is enough of a deterrent. That option was floated when Bitmain got too ballsy and tried to corner the market with their asicboost. Community responded with UASF and segwit to level the playing field. That worked to a degree, Bitmain went to spin off bcash, and we didn't have to use the algo change. Long term, Moore's law will hit and the playing field will level out. Until then it'll be a bumpy ride, but should get smoother with everyday.

As far as being forced to do it, that's very unlikely for BTC. That's how they used to kill shitty alts, throw a ton of hash power at an alt, wait for difficulty adjustment and then drop off, reducing the hash+increasing difficulty resulted in increased time between blocks to the point where alt was unusable, and rest of the network would have to mine at a loss until next difficulty adjustment. The insane hashrate of BTC makes it very unlikely and cost prohibitive. Plus this move would be offset by the market increasing their transaction fees which would make mining more lucrative  again.
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June 20, 2018, 06:12:55 AM

https://twitter.com/BithumbOfficial/status/1009239883645243392

[Notice for the suspension of all deposit and withdrawal service]
We checked that some of cryptocurrencies valued about $30,000,000 was stolen. Those stolen cryptocurrencies will be covered from Bithumb and all of assets are being transferring to cold wallet.

*All deposit and withdrawal service will be stopped to make sure the security. We will keep notice you of the restart of the service. We apologize for your inconvenience and thanks for your understanding.




timing is everything Kevin, twas no coincidence


more to come?


will there be a big one or multiple?



Perfectly timed hack - such FUD.   Why do people keep building trust into trustless systems?
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June 20, 2018, 06:35:08 AM

Why do people keep building trust into trustless systems?

Bitcoin is not a trustless system.  If you can't hold it in your hand and defend it with a machine gun, you don't own it.  Shitcoins all have built-in middlemen, don't remove counterparty risk, and rely on numerous external parties to function at all.  It is ENTIRELY out of your control whether your imaginary tokens will remain sendable/usable, or still exist in the morning.
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June 20, 2018, 06:53:58 AM

Tron bought BitTorrent

Using Bitcoin. =)
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