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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21291295 times)
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Kylapoiss
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July 10, 2018, 11:30:32 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)


How could I be wrong or assuming, when I am merely attempting to make a parity out of your earlier post by summing it up?

Are you now qualifying what you said,  or are you asserting that I mischaracterized what you said?

I meant mischaracterisation. And I just woke up when I wrote that, I'm grumpy in the mornings Smiley



So what?  We get articles that go with the momentum all the time, and when the trend reverses, those articles end up being wrong.  You are not saying much by merely describing what a bunch of articles are saying, especially if they are just talking about the trend... and having higher (or lower) expectations depending on the then BTC price direction.

Was just trying to explain why I said what I said. I know I'm not saying much, as I feel that my knowledge on the subject is much much lower than of the average user in this thread.



Well, yes many of us had sentiments regarding the topping of the BTC that just kept going up, and up, and up, and I had similar sentiments.

It remains amazing how those bullish sentiments work, and the bearish sentiments work in similar ways, too.

At some point, any of us become wrong.

I'm still learning, or maybe I should say I'm trying to see some patterns in my own way, really hard to explain it and I lack english skills to do so aswell. So far I have been mostly right, though I don't want anyone else to follow my predictions, as I don't have any real TA to back it up.



Ok.  That is good, but that is not what you seemed to be saying in your previous post.

In any event, if you are not tweaking your previous prediction, then it seems that you are continuing to anticipate the BTC price to bottom out in the $3k-ish price territory...    What kind of action are you taking to prepare for your anticipation of the price movements?  Did you sell some or all, or are you planning to do it at certain price points?  Are you holding?  Are you planning to buy?  If you are planning to buy, at what price points would you do it?  Do you play with margin or not? 

It's hard to explain myself sometimes, as english is my third language and most of my writing comes from straight translations, can get messy like that.

Yeah, I'm still thinking it will dip down to 3xxx levels, probably on the higher end, again this is just an insight and no real info to back it up.

You know I have a gambler spirit, so my predictions and buying strategy should taken as such. I know it's risky, but I don't like too balanced way of thinking, it's boring Smiley I can win big and I can lose big, nevertheless I'm not putting in money I can't afford to lose (like I did in the past and had to sell everything in 2015, in the worst market possible)

I have X amount of FIAT ready to buy, of what I'm holding about 50% to try and buy the dip (3xxx), 25% of it is to buy when it touches 48xx and the rest will wait for 55xx. If it starts to shoot up, I will spend 50% of it on 75xx and will keep the rest for the time being, maybe play around with alts if the market shoots up and convert winnings from there to BTC later.

I like to keep things interesting and my heart pounding, being it from pumps or dumps, doesn't matter, as long as I can get some action.
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Torque
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July 10, 2018, 11:37:13 AM

I think China will be a driver of the btc price again, despite what people are saying I think they are close to disaster. I read a comment recently from a man who has a lot of business in China and has a lot of connections with high up party members and business leaders. Things don't sound good.

I agree. Other than ingraining a misguided sense of nationalism in the younger generations, China has done nothing over the past 10-15 years to become a more consumer driven economy. They have pumped billions of ponzi fiat money into their economy, which has done nothing except create rampant and irrational over speculation, especially in their tech stock market and in real estate.

The West is still the "consumer arm" of the entire world, and unfortunately the U.S. and other western nations can no longer hide the fact that consumer spending dropped off a fkn cliff about 5 years ago. The lack of consumer demand abroad is finally hitting China's shores, and they can no longer keep their own economy propped up with more fake borrowing and debt issuance.

It's all going to come crashing down. SoonTM.
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July 10, 2018, 11:37:59 AM

Uhoh...

Phil_S
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We choose to go to the moon


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July 10, 2018, 11:39:37 AM

I'm taking a ride
With my best friend
I hope he never lets me down again
BobLawblaw
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July 10, 2018, 11:43:11 AM

I'm taking a ride
With my best friend
I hope he never lets me down again

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real.
Phil_S
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We choose to go to the moon


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July 10, 2018, 11:43:37 AM

I'm taking a ride
With my best friend
I hope he never lets me down again

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real.

Promises me I'm as safe as houses
As long as I remember who's wearing the trousers
BlindMayorBitcorn
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July 10, 2018, 11:45:21 AM

Jimbo should be along shortly to remind you he's still rich. Nothing to worry about.
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July 10, 2018, 11:47:04 AM

I'm taking a ride
With my best friend
I hope he never lets me down again
I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real.
Promises me I'm as safe as houses
As long as I remember who's wearing the trousers

The needle tears a hole
The old familiar sting
Try to kill it all away
But I remember everything


JayJuanGee
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July 10, 2018, 11:47:26 AM


How could I be wrong or assuming, when I am merely attempting to make a parity out of your earlier post by summing it up?

Are you now qualifying what you said,  or are you asserting that I mischaracterized what you said?

I meant mischaracterisation. And I just woke up when I wrote that, I'm grumpy in the mornings Smiley



So what?  We get articles that go with the momentum all the time, and when the trend reverses, those articles end up being wrong.  You are not saying much by merely describing what a bunch of articles are saying, especially if they are just talking about the trend... and having higher (or lower) expectations depending on the then BTC price direction.

Was just trying to explain why I said what I said. I know I'm not saying much, as I feel that my knowledge on the subject is much much lower than of the average user in this thread.



Well, yes many of us had sentiments regarding the topping of the BTC that just kept going up, and up, and up, and I had similar sentiments.

It remains amazing how those bullish sentiments work, and the bearish sentiments work in similar ways, too.

At some point, any of us become wrong.

I'm still learning, or maybe I should say I'm trying to see some patterns in my own way, really hard to explain it and I lack english skills to do so aswell. So far I have been mostly right, though I don't want anyone else to follow my predictions, as I don't have any real TA to back it up.



Ok.  That is good, but that is not what you seemed to be saying in your previous post.

In any event, if you are not tweaking your previous prediction, then it seems that you are continuing to anticipate the BTC price to bottom out in the $3k-ish price territory...    What kind of action are you taking to prepare for your anticipation of the price movements?  Did you sell some or all, or are you planning to do it at certain price points?  Are you holding?  Are you planning to buy?  If you are planning to buy, at what price points would you do it?  Do you play with margin or not? 

It's hard to explain myself sometimes, as english is my third language and most of my writing comes from straight translations, can get messy like that.

Yeah, I'm still thinking it will dip down to 3xxx levels, probably on the higher end, again this is just an insight and no real info to back it up.

You know I have a gambler spirit, so my predictions and buying strategy should taken as such. I know it's risky, but I don't like too balanced way of thinking, it's boring Smiley I can win big and I can lose big, nevertheless I'm not putting in money I can't afford to lose (like I did in the past and had to sell everything in 2015, in the worst market possible)

I have X amount of FIAT ready to buy, of what I'm holding about 50% to try and buy the dip (3xxx), 25% of it is to buy when it touches 48xx and the rest will wait for 55xx. If it starts to shoot up, I will spend 50% of it on 75xx and will keep the rest for the time being, maybe play around with alts if the market shoots up and convert winnings from there to BTC later.

I like to keep things interesting and my heart pounding, being it from pumps or dumps, doesn't matter, as long as I can get some action.

It may seem that I am attempting to "bust your balls" but it is merely an interaction with the substance, and your english (even if you are using translation software) seems to be decently good enough to get across your intentions.

I think that your tentative buying plan sounds good, and at least you are attempting to hedge a bit with buying and planning for incrementals.

You admit that your strategy is a bit of a gambling approach, and so at least you realize what you are doing in that regard.

Surely, my strategy has quite a lot less of a gambling approach, and currently, I am buying in about $300 increments on the way down, without really trying to predict exactly how far the price will go down.  For example if the price goes down to $3k, I will still have about 50% of my current fiat stash to buy further.  I don't expect the price to go down that far, but surely, even a 30% chance could end up playing out to become a 100% chance, once it happens.

I don't really see any utility with your plan to buy on the way up, if the price were to go up to $7,500.  That kind of strategy just does not make sense to me, even though I understand that a lot of folks play like that, and to each his own.. you have to accept and live with your own strategy, and something that works for you financially and/or psychologically, might not work for me (or at least might not feel good for me).
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July 10, 2018, 11:48:04 AM
Merited by Torque (1), HairyMaclairy (1)

I think China will be a driver of the btc price again, despite what people are saying I think they are close to disaster. I read a comment recently from a man who has a lot of business in China and has a lot of connections with high up party members and business leaders. Things don't sound good.

I agree. Other than ingraining a misguided sense of nationalism in the younger generations, China has done nothing over the past 10-15 years to become a more consumer driven economy. They have pumped billions of ponzi fiat money into their economy, which has done nothing except create rampant and irrational over speculation, especially in their tech stock market and in real estate.

The West is still the "consumer arm" of the entire world, and unfortunately the U.S. and other western nations can no longer hide the fact that consumer spending dropped off a fkn cliff about 5 years ago. The lack of consumer demand abroad is finally hitting China's shores, and they can no longer keep their own economy propped up with more fake borrowing and debt issuance.

It's all going to come crashing down. SoonTM.

FYI the comment from the person I mentioned

Bring China to its knees - um - you know what? China has just realised that this is a possibility. China is realising that its switch to a consumer lead economy vs "factory to the world" will take a lot longer than anticipated and the powers that are know that food security is still a major problem. It is clear from our sources that there was a massive misread on the part of the Chinese who thought that Trump would back down. There is a lot happening in China right now pointing directly to trouble brewing - from protests by retired military personnel to paint and faeces being thrown on XJP pictures and court buildings (some thoughts that this is being stirred up from foreign sources so expect another "westerner" crackdown). So all up, this is a very dangerous time in China, XJP can not appear weak to the populace, thus the massive propaganda campaign underway (from WeChat to subway advertising, singing people in subways and the usual rules for media outlets). The soybean tariffs will be paid by the government if the beans are added to the strategic reserve - this alone shows what is really happening.  And as for the slowdown, well it is real, from Evergrande chairman to gov officials, it has been acknowledged as happening, but GDP will still print 6.7/6.8%.
Trumps timing was sublime - he actually caught the Chinese in full Moutai celebrations over the Xi for Life event and in so doing, made sure that Xi has to respond. Xi's real problem is that any response he makes from Yuan deval (we are hearing 10=15% being accepted) to imposing tariffs to limiting imports hurts China more than anything else. Your comment about China suddenly not needing 20% of its IO supplies from Oz is interesting. I had the same comment made to me when I was in Beijing last month. The month where there was another all time record shipped from Port Hedland.
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July 10, 2018, 11:49:13 AM

Jimbo should be along shortly to remind you he's still rich. Nothing to worry about.

Exactamente!!!!!   That's how this bitcoin thingie-ma-jiggie rolls.   Wink Wink Cheesy
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July 10, 2018, 11:51:48 AM

I'm taking a ride
With my best friend
I hope he never lets me down again

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real.

There's no need for Johnny Cash at these price points. We'd need to hit the dreaded $1.3k Wink
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July 10, 2018, 11:52:20 AM
Last edit: July 10, 2018, 12:15:58 PM by Torque

FYI the comment from the person I mentioned

Bring China to its knees - um - you know what? China has just realised that this is a possibility. China is realising that its switch to a consumer lead economy vs "factory to the world" will take a lot longer than anticipated and the powers that are know that food security is still a major problem. It is clear from our sources that there was a massive misread on the part of the Chinese who thought that Trump would back down. There is a lot happening in China right now pointing directly to trouble brewing - from protests by retired military personnel to paint and faeces being thrown on XJP pictures and court buildings (some thoughts that this is being stirred up from foreign sources so expect another "westerner" crackdown). So all up, this is a very dangerous time in China, XJP can not appear weak to the populace, thus the massive propaganda campaign underway (from WeChat to subway advertising, singing people in subways and the usual rules for media outlets). The soybean tariffs will be paid by the government if the beans are added to the strategic reserve - this alone shows what is really happening.  And as for the slowdown, well it is real, from Evergrande chairman to gov officials, it has been acknowledged as happening, but GDP will still print 6.7/6.8%.
Trumps timing was sublime - he actually caught the Chinese in full Moutai celebrations over the Xi for Life event and in so doing, made sure that Xi has to respond. Xi's real problem is that any response he makes from Yuan deval (we are hearing 10=15% being accepted) to imposing tariffs to limiting imports hurts China more than anything else. Your comment about China suddenly not needing 20% of its IO supplies from Oz is interesting. I had the same comment made to me when I was in Beijing last month. The month where there was another all time record shipped from Port Hedland.

Interesting read, thanks!

Quote
And as for the slowdown, well it is real, from Evergrande chairman to gov officials, it has been acknowledged as happening, but GDP will still print 6.7/6.8%.

Funny that everybody knows that GDP print is completely fake, but govts will still keep spouting the lies, won't they?  Wink

Alarm bells on China's economy have been ringing since 2015-16...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7enlEd_1XP4
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July 10, 2018, 11:57:19 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

It may seem that I am attempting to "bust your balls" but it is merely an interaction with the substance, and your english (even if you are using translation software) seems to be decently good enough to get across your intentions.

I think that your tentative buying plan sounds good, and at least you are attempting to hedge a bit with buying and planning for incrementals.

You admit that your strategy is a bit of a gambling approach, and so at least you realize what you are doing in that regard.

Surely, my strategy has quite a lot less of a gambling approach, and currently, I am buying in about $300 increments on the way down, without really trying to predict exactly how far the price will go down.  For example if the price goes down to $3k, I will still have about 50% of my current fiat stash to buy further.  I don't expect the price to go down that far, but surely, even a 30% chance could end up playing out to become a 100% chance, once it happens.

I don't really see any utility with your plan to buy on the way up, if the price were to go up to $7,500.  That kind of strategy just does not make sense to me, even though I understand that a lot of folks play like that, and to each his own.. you have to accept and live with your own strategy, and something that works for you financially and/or psychologically, might not work for me (or at least might not feel good for me).

No, no software used, just my brain, still I feel I can't explain myself properly, words get stuck and I have to think through too much what I'm writing, hard to express myself freely in that way. Maybe I'm just not confident enough, better than being overconfident Smiley

The plan for way up is just not to miss the "train", I probably won't buy anything the first time it touches 75xx if I don't firmly believe the trend has reversed from bearish to bullish, but keeping an eye more on the market and seeing where it goes. For example, if I had my buying zone around 67xx, I wouldn't have bought anything with this small pump, at it doesn't seem to have any strength behind it (it's already falling).

But yeah, I get bored very easily and I don't like the feeling, that's why I'm trying to keep things interesting whatever I'm doing, even when it has a much more riskier outcome. Kind of an adrenaline junkie too, love extreme sports for example.
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July 10, 2018, 11:57:56 AM

There's no need for Johnny Cash at these price points.

Nine Inch Nails, fam.
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July 10, 2018, 12:02:39 PM

There's no need for Johnny Cash at these price points.

Nine Inch Nails, fam.

I'm a huge NIN fan but honestly I love the Johnny Cash version of hurt too.

do you guys know the kermit version? Smiley https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57ta7mkgrOU

edit: so many typos, I type like a drunk and handicapped sea cucumber.
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July 10, 2018, 12:02:53 PM

There's no need for Johnny Cash at these price points.

Nine Inch Nails, fam.

The cover is more depressing. Wink
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July 10, 2018, 12:11:11 PM

There's no need for Johnny Cash at these price points.

Nine Inch Nails, fam.

The cover is more depressing. Wink

 You guys don't know depression.



 Now I have to drink instant coffee on my day off.


 edit: Canadian back-peddle - apologies to anyone who knows depression. 
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July 10, 2018, 12:20:51 PM

I'm taking a ride
With my best friend
I hope he never lets me down again

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real.

There's no need for Johnny Cash at these price points. We'd need to hit the dreaded $1.3k Wink


That's too much.  I am waiting for triple digits.
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July 10, 2018, 12:25:06 PM


https://www.coindesk.com/merchants-bitcoin-lightning-network/

"100 Merchants Can Now Trial Bitcoin's Lightning Network Risk Free"

"Instant payments are the most important from our point of view," Tamás Szerencse, head of payments at LiveJasmin, said, expanding on why the company joined CoinGate's Lightning pilot.

With up to 40 million daily visitors, LiveJasmin could become one of the biggest mainstream merchants to experiment with Lightning so far. Experimenting with more diverse transaction types could provide invaluable insight into how Lightning works out in the wild.
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