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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21292898 times)
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V1lpu
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July 24, 2018, 10:42:46 PM

Meanwhile in r/Bitcoin

Bitcoin today

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HairyMaclairy
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July 24, 2018, 11:04:08 PM

The USSA has unveiled a $12tn (£9999.1tn) plan aimed at helping USSA farmers hurt by the intensifying trade war.

The aid is intended to protect the industry as countries raise taxes on USSA products such as soybeans in response to new Chinese regime tariffs.

The USSA plans to provide subsidies to farmers and buy unsold crops, among other measures.

H.E. Donald Frederikovich Trump has promised the aid after respectful requests from farmers, a negligible part of his support base.

H.E. Trump has said his tariffs - which he earlier described in a tweet as "the greatest" - are intended to pressure countries to change their policies toward USSA exports.

In a stirring speech on Tuesday, he said farmers would be the "biggest beneficiary" of the disputes after countries strike new deals.
You know, at a glance this seems really... not helpful?

Players of the Civ genre will know that food is the single most important resource. This makes sense.


So according to most on both sides of the aisle, politics-wise...Trump puts on tariffs...farmers are in trouble ...so taxpayers help farmers...and this is all due to a dubious

reason for tariffs anyway? I guess it is a good way to waste 2x the money...



As the village resident leftie I thoroughly approve of welfare for commercial farming operations.

Agricultural subsidies are Making America Great Again.

/s
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July 24, 2018, 11:18:02 PM
Merited by bitmover (1)

Maybe you just look down on those who attempt to engage in self-improvement BTC trading practices?  I try to share tips with folks, and yeah, I understand that it can be a bit overwhelming to attempt to employ something like I do, or some variation or even some variation that you attempt to tailor to your own situation.


What do you do?

Are you going to sell now at 8.000?
Did you bought at 5800 ?

I thought that most peeps here understand my methodology.

In brief, largely I am an incrementalist.  I buy on the way down, and I also dollar cost average buy, and I sell a small amount of the way up.  I sell between about 1% and 1.5% of my bitcoin stash for every 10% that the BTC price goes up, and I use a decent amount of the sales proceeds to buy back, in the event that the BTC price goes down.

I have been engaged in such incrementalism for almost 3 years.  In other words,  before October 2015, I was largely accumulating and dollar cost average buying... I also was establishing my initial BTC stake in 2014, and in a kind of maintenance during 2015, so if I ever sold any BTC for any reason, I would replace such BTC (and a bit more) quite quickly thereafter.

Currently, largely, I do not really change my practice by BIG price moves or make any BIG moves of my own.. so I am constantly selling on the way up and constantly buying as the price goes... I do tend to play around with the increments and the amounts based on how the BTC price is moving, but the amount that I authorize to buy or to sell is based on ongoing similar percentages that I authorize for myself and only tweak in small ways.  Regarding the actual price points of $8,000 and $5,800, yes I was buying all the way down.  Actually, I sold all the way up to $19666 and then I bought all the way back down and was largely prepared to keep buying , even if BTC prices were to go below $1k (which surely seems unlikely, currently).  Largely also I had been selling all the way up through the $6000s until reaching our $8000 of today.. so if the price goes above $8k I will continue to sell, and if the price goes below $7700 or something like that I will resume buying..

Thanks for your time writing this to me.

I don't mind sharing because I consider these kinds of matters to have potential for brainstorming for me to consider and to reconsider my strategy, along with others being able to employ the strategies or to tailor them for themselves.



That's very interesting. I am too attached to my btc to sell. However, 1-1.5% as you said can be done..

I think that in 2014, and perhaps part of 2015, I felt the same way, especially while I was in the largely BTC accumulating stage.  Others have expressed such selling reservations, especially when they consider that they are in the earlier stages of building their position.

Largely I got my framework thinking from Rpietila's SSS thread.

He advocated a kind of strict planning ahead to rake in profits at about 10% for every 10x increase in BTC price.  Of course, he suggested that you could tailor the increments, but he also suggested taking those profits off of the table.

Accordingly, not only did I decrease the increments, I also incorporated a buying back plan, too.   So, yeah if you are finding that you gambling too much, then you can figure out some middle ground that is somewhere between my approach and Rpietila's.


It requires some time and effort to work also.

I think that it takes time and effort to initially plan it, set it up and to get used to practicing it, and accordingly, I would recommend practicing with smaller amounts and smaller increments and then working your way up.

Even today, I tweak my increments around, depending on how much time I have available (and want to spend on it) and my tentative projections about how fast and far BTC's price is going to move.  In other words, I would suggest practicing a bit to get used to it, and if you do not want to spend a lot of time on it, then you set it up for BIGGER price swings, and set it up in such a way that you become  somewhat emotionally neutral about the actual movement of the price direction.


I did something similar to that before, however I sold and bought back about 20% of my stack in 2 operations and got very few gains, which were not worth the effort and involved high risk.

Personally, I don't really consider the matter in terms of gains, but instead of in terms of creating a kind of insurance for myself and also a kind of comfort level that seems to cause me to be less nervous about the BTC price direction because I feel covered for either price direction.

How much % gains are you having? 1-1.5% sells buys are a very good idea I liked it.

Like I just mentioned, I don't get caught up with measuring short term gains, especially on one or two trades; however, I have some spreadsheets that can show (in a price projection manner) that I am in the process of accumulating BTC through this process, and I end up having both, more cash and more BTC... .at various price points, but I will also manage the percentage of dollars or BTC that I have in reserve because I project ahead, and I do not ever want to run out of dollars to buy BTC in the even the BTC price goes down and it also overshoots in its going down (which BTC does have an ongoing tendency to overshoot expectations both to the downside and to the upside).   I also don't want to run out of BTC to sell on the way up, so I tweak here and there my projections about how many BTC I am selling on the way up, and really in recent times, I tend to kind of stay within a range of having plenty of BTC, even though I continue to sell it on the way up.. .so for example my range of BTC might be as high as 98% when the BTC price goes down below expectations and even go as low as 87% or 88% when the price shoots up.  Of course, I can tweak the amount of dollars or BTC that I am holding in order to attempt to maintain a certain quantity or even to anticipate a price reversal (but so far, these tend to be tweaks for me, rather than large moves).

Even though I am not breaking down actual numbers of how much fiat and/or BTC I am accumulating on each end, I know that my system provides considerable satisfaction for me in terms of stacking up BTC and dollars up and down the spectrum of BTC price possibilities and it also gives me a sense of insurance and security to have those dollars and BTC stacked up on each side and I can tell by looking at my accumulation that my reserves grow on each end to a level that remains satisfying and worth while for me and the amount of time that I put into it. 

I frequently say to people that one of the most guaranteed thing about bitcoin (rather than price direction) is that it is going to be volatile, both up and down, and what I do intends to profit from some BTC price dynamic that seems as close to guaranteed as anything can be in cryptolandia.

One final point, is that I do have a kind of ingrained presumption that in the long term BTC prices are going to go up, rather than going to zero... so my system would likely not be profitable (at least not as much) if BTC prices go to zero (even though I could pull out a certain amount of principle that I refuse to trade, perhaps?).
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July 24, 2018, 11:18:56 PM

As the village resident leftie I thoroughly approve of welfare for commercial farming operations.

Agricultural subsidies are Making America Great Again.

/s

Without corn subsidies where would we get our deliciously healthy corn syrup?

Won't someone please think about Monsanto!

 Cry
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July 24, 2018, 11:26:04 PM

Here we go again?
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July 24, 2018, 11:33:33 PM
Merited by mindrust (1)

Meanwhile in r/Bitcoin

Bitcoin today



https://www.whoisrogerver.com/









 Grin Grin Grin Wall of text

fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate , hate leads to the dark side


https://crypto.robinhood.movie/

an open secret hey Roger


gonna get help here or shall we go to see Chan
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July 24, 2018, 11:37:28 PM


$500 million long leveraged in one single exchange? That's simply mindblowing.

What could be his exit plan?

People with that kind of money to throw around don't get that rich or risk that kind of money without some sort of edge. I would say he has inside information. In fact, I would say a lot of people have the information and that's why we are going to continue vertical until the news breaks.

Sooo, do you think he will just send the money to deleverage his/their position and convert to solid Bitcoins instead of just selling?

Maybe a mix of both "exit" strategies?

I don't really know what to think. Mindblowing.
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July 24, 2018, 11:40:39 PM


$500 million long leveraged in one single exchange? That's simply mindblowing.

What could be his exit plan?

People with that kind of money to throw around don't get that rich or risk that kind of money without some sort of edge. I would say he has inside information. In fact, I would say a lot of people have the information and that's why we are going to continue vertical until the news breaks.

That may be true, but notice how these types of bonkers positions never happen on legit exchanges like Coinbase Pro or Gemini. It's always on the fucking shady Chinese exchanges, where there is no transparency and nobody can really verify anything. The order books could be completed faked or trumped up.
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July 24, 2018, 11:40:49 PM

Here we go again?

Looks like it, $8400+ now
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July 24, 2018, 11:43:17 PM

Meanwhile in r/Bitcoin

Bitcoin today



https://www.whoisrogerver.com/









 Grin Grin Grin Wall of text

fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate , hate leads to the dark side


https://crypto.robinhood.movie/

an open secret hey Roger


gonna get help here or shall we go to see Chan

Check out this Tweet from today.

Roger Ver, Daniel Kelman and some others meeting with the president of Cyprus.

https://twitter.com/kelmandacom/status/1021828985972436992
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July 24, 2018, 11:46:12 PM

Fine... but we are still poor.


I hate to set my expectations too high.

Maybe poor was around $200, and then just making it was around $600, and feeling pretty good was around $1,000.

Above $1k are just relative variations of well off  merging into lower levels of rich and then higher levels of rich that come from $10k and above.. perhaps approaching fuck you rich at $100k and filthy rich at $1million?

The single most important level of richness is reaching a solid "fuck you money". Below that it's just "still poor" and above is "still rich". Yeah, $100k (per BTC) would be enough "fuck you money" for me.

O.k.... that's fair enough, and it seems that the levels are different for different people, even though we may have been into bitcoin for similar amounts of time.

So I was considering that perhaps there were quite a few folks whose BTC holdings were kind of in the hole when prices were below $500, and then as prices raised above that level, then your BTC holdings were profitable and became more and more profitable as far as the BTC price going up. 

Another thing that I was considering was that traditional investments could reliably return 4% to 12% annually, if you engaged in a kind of sound investing, so if you are achieving BTC returns that squash those traditional returns, then in the end you will be doing very well.. and surely more well the higher the BTC price, and kind of assuming that the value of your overall BTC portfolio is going up, even if you screw up a bit here and there in terms of losing some of it.

But, I also understand that depending upon the amount of your initial principle investment (which includes any additional amount that you might add on the way up), you may require greater returns if the principle was lower.  So, some people are doing quite well with 10x returns while others might require 100x returns to do well and then even greater returns to get into the "fuck you" territory.  Actually one level of fuck you is just having enough money to be able to support yourself without having to work again, so therefore you can say "fuck you" to any terms of employment that you do not like, and another (higher) level of fuck you is being able to flaunt your wealth or to have a kind of freedom to spend freely without having to really account for your income going down...

so, depending on your cost of living, maybe baby fuck you would be in the lower millions of dollars, and then $3-$5 million in the first world to be able to live off of the money, but bigger levels of fuck you are in the $30 million plus territory... but if you live in an area of the world with a lower cost of living, you might be able to accomplish a decent amount of extra fuck you with less than $10million dollars of  wealth.

Those were more of less the parameters of some of my assumptions.. and understandably will vary from personal circumstances, such as if you believe that you need a yacht in order to have "fuck you" status.

Not setting any expectations or making any prediction.... just telling how things are.

Of course I am happy with current price rise, would be very happy with $10k+ and would start jumping around like a mad kangaroo above $20k.

I am happy with all of this, and including if the price were to get stuck below $10k for an extended period of time, but of course, the more the price goes up, the greater it is to just go a bit wild with the extra wealth that flows in my direction... like an unexpected gift (that was a little bit expected because you peaked under the wrappers when your parents weren't home ... hahahahahahah)....


Yeah, I am aware many people here are already "filthy rich" so, in the end, I guess I am just kind of joking when I say "we". Smiley

EXACTAmente... there are various levels of "we"    Wink Wink

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July 24, 2018, 11:51:29 PM


$500 million long leveraged in one single exchange? That's simply mindblowing.

What could be his exit plan?

People with that kind of money to throw around don't get that rich or risk that kind of money without some sort of edge. I would say he has inside information. In fact, I would say a lot of people have the information and that's why we are going to continue vertical until the news breaks.

That may be true, but notice how these types of bonkers positions never happen on legit exchanges like Coinbase Pro or Gemini. It's always on the fucking shady Chinese exchanges, where there is no transparency and nobody can really verify anything. The order books could be completed faked or trumped up.

I think it just further supports the idea that it's insider trading. You don't do that kind of thing on a regulated exchange unless you want to go to jail.
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July 24, 2018, 11:54:44 PM

The USSA has unveiled a $12tn (£9999.1tn) plan aimed at helping USSA farmers hurt by the intensifying trade war.

The aid is intended to protect the industry as countries raise taxes on USSA products such as soybeans in response to new Chinese regime tariffs.

The USSA plans to provide subsidies to farmers and buy unsold crops, among other measures.

H.E. Donald Frederikovich Trump has promised the aid after respectful requests from farmers, a negligible part of his support base.

H.E. Trump has said his tariffs - which he earlier described in a tweet as "the greatest" - are intended to pressure countries to change their policies toward USSA exports.

In a stirring speech on Tuesday, he said farmers would be the "biggest beneficiary" of the disputes after countries strike new deals.
You know, at a glance this seems really... not helpful?

Players of the Civ genre will know that food is the single most important resource. This makes sense.


So according to most on both sides of the aisle, politics-wise...Trump puts on tariffs...farmers are in trouble ...so taxpayers help farmers...and this is all due to a dubious

reason for tariffs anyway? I guess it is a good way to waste 2x the money...



As the village resident leftie I thoroughly approve of welfare for commercial farming operations.

Agricultural subsidies are Making America Great Again.

/s


No problem with agricultural subsidies to farmers....but we are going to do these, because Trump Admin started a trade war they can't win with tariffs?

seems silly, IMHO....make a problem...toss more $$$ at the problem that goes away when you stop making the problem (trade wars)

What is likely to happen IMHO, is Congress will simply not approve of the bailout (assuming they can do so) yet at the same time support the trump

administration trade war stuff... (no one it seems, will take on Trump...they might not get re-elected if a Republican). They can show they stopped

Trump on the farmer's bailout..yet still claim that they support the President with the tariffs. (win/win fence sitting before November elections)


crazy times

brad


p.s.

edit a link

https://www.yahoo.com/news/republicans-denounce-trump-plan-welfare-farmers-hit-tariffs-205952800.html



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July 24, 2018, 11:55:34 PM

Fine... but we are still poor.


I hate to set my expectations too high.

Maybe poor was around $200, and then just making it was around $600, and feeling pretty good was around $1,000.

Above $1k are just relative variations of well off  merging into lower levels of rich and then higher levels of rich that come from $10k and above.. perhaps approaching fuck you rich at $100k and filthy rich at $1million?

Exactly that JJG.

Nice to see that you are back, RJC.  You would not want to get a "hiding in the cupboards" reputation like Rosewater, right?

I don't know if we are out of the woods, but surely it feels pretty good to have some upwards BTC price action that might reck a few bears in the process.  And, maybe they deserve such recking especially if they had been thinking that they were going to profit from shorting BTC in the $5ks, $6ks and $7ks?

It's like early 2016, when bears were shorting BTC in the $350 to $450 range - and got reckt....

and

It's like early 2017, when bears were shorting BTC in the lower $1000s and upper three digits range - and got reckt....

and

It's like July / August  2017 (and even September 2017), when bears were shorting BTC in the $2000s - and got reckt....

Good luck (NOT) bears, you are going to need it.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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July 24, 2018, 11:57:53 PM

These green candles are starting to scare me.  Undecided



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July 25, 2018, 12:00:04 AM


It is quite possible that there was quite a bit of money in fiat waiting in the reserves on bitstamp... and that money was NOT newly deposited into bitstamp today.   However, now that there seems to be some quasi-resolution to the GOX situation (which still remains quite unclear), some investors are putting in their buy orders with their fiat and so NOW all that reserve fiat, is suddenly showing up on the books.  I would venture to bet that there is quite a bit more fiat in the reserves waiting for a clearer signal regarding a GOX resolution and to thereafter jump in.  When that GOX resolution comes, we will truly have to da moon momentum.. UNLESS there is some new shenanigans (what could that be? government sabotage of sorts?)



Tell us again the MtGox Story and how you advised everyone basically not to panic, your words of wisdom at the time were calming.

Tell us again, that you are not a bot, you fucking goofball.. with your half-english and largely difficult to discern content.

I joined this forum in February 2014, so surely my posts in that time had a lot of fucking peeps following them, right?    Furthermore, individuals can have all kinds of opinions that evolve with the time and they are attempting to engage in a dialogue with other peeps in this thread.. wasn't that what I was doing?  Hello you fucking misaligned fuck, do I claim to be a sorcerer at any time?, so get the fuck out of here with your attempt to dig up dirt that ends up being largely irrelevant.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


It is quite possible that there was quite a bit of money in fiat waiting in the reserves on bitstamp... and that money was NOT newly deposited into bitstamp today.   However, now that there seems to be some quasi-resolution to the GOX situation (which still remains quite unclear), some investors are putting in their buy orders with their fiat and so NOW all that reserve fiat, is suddenly showing up on the books.  I would venture to bet that there is quite a bit more fiat in the reserves waiting for a clearer signal regarding a GOX resolution and to thereafter jump in.  When that GOX resolution comes, we will truly have to da moon momentum.. UNLESS there is some new shenanigans (what could that be? government sabotage of sorts?)



Tell us again the MtGox Story and how you advised everyone basically not to panic, your words of wisdom at the time were calming.

Are you on some sort of paranoid crusade against everyone for some undisclosed reason?

You did even mistakenly matched my joking at the BCH thread as some sort of serious shilling.

Me thinks you should just relax and enjoy the rise as we are all doing. Really. Or maybe tell us what's the deal?

A bot is not too likely to engage in seriously engaging communications, and yeah it seems that mymenance is engaged in a kind of shit-stirring, that trolls do at opportune times to distract from any meaningful exchanges of thread-relevant information that we might be having.
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July 25, 2018, 12:00:54 AM

Meanwhile in r/Bitcoin
Bitcoin today


https://www.whoisrogerver.com/







 Grin Grin Grin Wall of text

fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate , hate leads to the dark side

https://crypto.robinhood.movie/
an open secret hey Roger

gonna get help here or shall we go to see Chan

Check out this Tweet from today.
Roger Ver, Daniel Kelman and some others meeting with the president of Cyprus.
https://twitter.com/kelmandacom/status/1021828985972436992


Yeah shameless bump due to s@#t posting
Someone does not realize their s@#t posting has become irrelevant

Fully exposed, is it TDS there. Or is it RDS.
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July 25, 2018, 12:02:29 AM

These green candles are starting to scare me.  Undecided

I was just finally starting to develop a comfortable defensive layer of Stockholm Syndrome!

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July 25, 2018, 12:03:00 AM

Any day above $10k is a good day.

Are we there yet?
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July 25, 2018, 12:07:44 AM

That may be true, but notice how these types of bonkers positions never happen on legit exchanges like Coinbase Pro or Gemini. It's always on the fucking shady Chinese exchanges, where there is no transparency and nobody can really verify anything. The order books could be completed faked or trumped up.

Something smells fishy. Creating such an illiquid position, and opening yourself up to $500M of counter-party risk is loco.
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