Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[elrippos friend]

Long short ratio

Long / short ratio still close to record high shorts according to my preferred calculation (lower bar = longs / shorts).  Some stung by the latest price hike but lots of squeeze fuel left.  



Accelerated recovery model

If you believe in an accelerated 2018 recovery (which I don't) then arguably we should be tracking the light blue line.  Light green line shows our current performance.  It's not completely out of the question however.  And nothing would make me happier than to be wrong on this point.  We need to jump to $9k.  Squeeze fuel would be one way to get there, which means a clean break of the current down trend line requiring a price of about $7500 (downtrend line currently sitting ~$7400).



Accelerated recovery model - zoomed out

This is what happens when you zoom out on the accelerated 2018 recovery.  Yeah.

I am bullish on this one  

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[elrippos friend]

such bearish very newb wow

The full acceptance of BTC seems to be VERY enthusiastic, but ok, let's see how it goes 

[BTCtrader71]

Back at that beautiful place of having no fucking clue what to do. Not to say I am unhappy. As per usual sitting with a more then advisabley large position for what I have saved, but I have been holding like a good little boy and it damn sure has paid off.

The slow walk up to break 7k makes me feel good, but now I once again hear that nagging evil feeling that I should sell and take profit and stop being such a greedy bastard. Problem is I believe too much and sometimes that gets in the way of making good decisions.

1) Set up a ladder of equally-spaced limit sell orders above current price, each for the same small increment of your stash.
2) Set up a ladder of equally-spaced limit buy orders below current price, each for the $USD value of the sell increment above it.
3) Harvest the volatility.
4) Profit. And relax, knowing that you are set up to maximize returns in any environment.

Well, that's my suggestion anyway.

In my opinion this is exactly the right way to do it if you're a long term bull. And assuming you don't have to sell sooner to pay the bills.

Although when it came time for me to sell during the 20k run-up, I sold less than my plan told me to. You know what stopped me? The thought of triggering capital gains.

[aaroque2003]

When one Satoshi equals one dollar, how will I pay for something that only costs 1 cent?  😉

By then we would already have a fully developed LN..... that will include Milisats... 6 more decimals positions added... on test mode now... so will be 1.00000000000000 .....  

[jbreher]

Observations from reading https://think.ing.com/uploads/reports/ING_International_Survey_Mobile_Banking_2018.pdf

1) "Fewer than one in 10 in Europe (9%) at the time of the survey indicate owning cryptocurrency ... One in four (25%) in Europe indicate they expect to own cryptocurrency at some time in the future"
So at a time when ~18% of Bitcoin remains to be mined, we see demand expected to triple. Works for me.

2) "We find that only about a third (35%) in Europe agree Bitcoin is the future of spending online. A similar share (32%) of respondents agree cryptocurrency is the future of investing."
Only? A third of everybody thinks that Bitcoin "is the future" of both spending online and of investing. And how big are these total addressable markets again? Thought so. I can certainly live with that.

...gotta wear shades.

[jbreher]

1) Set up a ladder of equally-spaced limit sell orders above current price, each for the same small increment of your stash.
2) Set up a ladder of equally-spaced limit buy orders below current price, each for the $USD value of the sell increment above it.
3) Harvest the volatility.
4) Profit. And relax, knowing that you are set up to maximize returns in any environment.

Well, that's my suggestion anyway.

In my opinion this is exactly the right way to do it if you're a long term bull. And assuming you don't have to sell sooner to pay the bills.

My plan assumes you're already sitting on a stake big enough for all anticipated lifetime needs, given your expectation of eventual Bitcoin price.

Although when it came time for me to sell during the 20k run-up, I sold less than my plan told me to. You know what stopped me? The thought of triggering capital gains.

I sold more than the above plan. I recognized the likelihood of the blowoff top, and I wanted to buy my lambo. Even recognizing the spike would be followed by an imminent retrace, I probably would not have accelerated my sells if I did not have an earmarked expenditure. For the next spike -- whenever it materializes -- will dwarf this last one.

Capital gains are a natural result of profits - they're a lot more affordable than a 2/3 haircut.

[vroom]

When one Satoshi equals one dollar, how will I pay for something that only costs 1 cent?  😉

By then we would already have a fully developed LN..... that will include Milisats... 6 more decimals positions added... on test mode now... so will be 1.00000000000000 .....  

In venezuale they delete zeros and bitcoin will add zeroes if necessary

[elrippos friend]

Observations from reading https://think.ing.com/uploads/reports/ING_International_Survey_Mobile_Banking_2018.pdf

1) "Fewer than one in 10 in Europe (9%) at the time of the survey indicate owning cryptocurrency ... One in four (25%) in Europe indicate they expect to own cryptocurrency at some time in the future"
So at a time when ~18% of Bitcoin remains to be mined, we see demand expected to triple. Works for me.

2) "We find that only about a third (35%) in Europe agree Bitcoin is the future of spending online. A similar share (32%) of respondents agree cryptocurrency is the future of investing."
Only? A third of everybody thinks that Bitcoin "is the future" of both spending online and of investing. And how big are these total addressable markets again? Thought so. I can certainly live with that.

...gotta wear shades.

To 1) If the demand doubles in two years the price will be likely to multiple by factor 10-20, can also live with that  

To 2) How many do believe that that is now the case, i believe 3-5%. If the demand multiplies by 10, i think we all know what happens to the price  

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

 this meeting could set off a BULL run   

[JayJuanGee]

IF we repeat the 2013 twin peak pattern after 1st halving, and adjusting for extended peak-to-peak timeline (22months:30months), we could be looking at final 2nd halving bull run blow-off phase beginning soonish and peaking out ~early-Feb 2019 (48months:65months) ... slower but in the same ratio.

That would be great!!!  I will vote for that version.

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

in the future many will need the consultant  

[JayJuanGee]

another way to 'fit' the 2014 fractal lol

I vote for this.

[El duderino_]

^
who wouldn't 

[JayJuanGee]

such bearish very newb wow

What is the source?

[JayJuanGee]

Back at that beautiful place of having no fucking clue what to do. Not to say I am unhappy. As per usual sitting with a more then advisabley large position for what I have saved, but I have been holding like a good little boy and it damn sure has paid off.

The slow walk up to break 7k makes me feel good, but now I once again hear that nagging evil feeling that I should sell and take profit and stop being such a greedy bastard. Problem is I believe too much and sometimes that gets in the way of making good decisions. It's one of those things I suppose. Even if I hold and it dips back who cares? I can wait for however long and it will return to a higher price so no one will stop me from profiting dammit!!

What's the outlook short term in your opinion gents?

Since you are showing anxiety, your current formula does not seem to be working.

Accordingly, you need to figure out some kind of sell formula that works for you.

Currently, I am in a system that sells about 1% to 1.5% for every 10% that the price rises, with price increments that suit my current feelings - maybe every $200 to $1,000 increments, depending on where the price is at.

Of course, you do not need to pick percentages or increments that are similar to mine, but the fact that you are showing some anxiety seems to demonstrate that you need to consider some kind of system that will make you more comfortable to shave off a little profits here and there.

On a personal level, with such ongoing bitcoin volatility, I do end up using some of my sell proceeds to buy back, so it does not seem like I am wasting the fiat that tends to accumulate, and also after you do this kind of sell on the way up and buy on the way down incrementalism for a while, you tend to end up stacking up both fiat and bitcoins in order that you have some bitcoins on the top end and some fiat on the bottom end to be prepared for either BTC price direction.   

[JayJuanGee]

I could live with the ARI PAUL prediction that somewhere in 2018 we Will see BTC trading @6000$ as iT would be trading @ 60000 $
So the first 50% of the prediction we have reached i would say the other 50% doesn’t need to complete like half or So would be more than amazing from This point  

I thought that I heard him interview about that recently, and he had to modify his prediction because he was anticipating UP before DOWN, and right after his prediction, price went down to $6k... accordingly, he is no longer so optimistic about $60k in 2018... something like that.

[El duderino_]

I could live with the ARI PAUL prediction that somewhere in 2018 we Will see BTC trading @6000$ as iT would be trading @ 60000 $
So the first 50% of the prediction we have reached i would say the other 50% doesn’t need to complete like half or So would be more than amazing from This point  

I thought that I heard him interview about that recently, and he had to modify his prediction because he was anticipating UP before DOWN, and right after his prediction, price went down to $6k... accordingly, he is no longer so optimistic about $60k in 2018... something like that.

Yeah i heard the podcast with polk as well but i Just say iT cause he said 6k as 60k So half the job was done for little over half the year So iT needs to start up those bull engines and give us Some popcorn times to be in.....

[the artful bodger]

Craig claims Base58 was used by FlickR in 2007 in this tweet after being asked if he invented it.

https://twitter.com/ProfFaustus/status/1034107267568885763

Didn’t you invent base58check? You should explain why..

.

No, Base58 was used by FlickR in 2007

He states that again here.

https://twitter.com/ProfFaustus/status/1034124182181830656

It explains the format Flikr introduced in 2007 on their servers...

However this blog post from 2009 contradicts that by saying flickr recently introduced its short URL service which makes use of base58.

http://mattsblog.ca/2009/08/08/flickr-short-url-generator/

August 8th, 2009 at 5:14 PM (9 years ago) by Matt Freedman

Recently, Flickr introduced its short URL service for all photos (and videos) hosted on Flickr. All photos and videos have a corresponding flic.kr URL associated with them, in the format of flic.kr/p/xxxxxx (the last part is the base-58 encoding of the photo-id)

If flickr was using base58 on its servers in 2007 it should show up in short links in the source code of pages archived back then, but it doesn't.

The image on this page was archived in 2007, then again in 2009.

http://www.flickr.com:80/photos/pmorgan/32606683/

A shortened link to it containing base58 doesn't show in the December 2007 snapshot of it, but does in the 2009 snapshot. Search the source code of these two snapshots for flic.kr/p/ yourself. It only appears in the 2009 snapshot.

https://web.archive.org/web/20071011015832/http://www.flickr.com:80/photos/pmorgan/32606683/

https://web.archive.org/web/20090929075056/http://www.flickr.com:80/photos/pmorgan/32606683/

I wonder if flickr would confirm it copied base58 from bitcoin and didn't invent the format itself.

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

this days i see everything BTC related .... dragon ball z everywhere, heads with bulls and bears today again this very aggressive pair of socks .... but the BULL in me forced me of not buying it this time
    whatever its holliday time for another few days cheers and have a drink on this SMALL pump but better than another big dive into the red numbers

[Torque]

Out-fkn-standing

https://twitter.com/nickfogle/status/1033876976577273857

I didn't want to worry about configuring a satellite dish, so I'm transmitting to Iridium's low orbit satellite constellation (this is what the US Military uses). Data speeds are a bit slower, but you can connect from anywhere on earth.

So a nail in the coffin to the 'ol "Well bitcoin will be useless if the power grid goes down" argument.