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Question: Closing BTC Price June 17:
$0 - 4 (3%)
<$6,500 - 7 (5.3%)
$6,500-$6,750 - 1 (0.8%)
$6,751-$7,000 - 2 (1.5%)
$7,001-$7,250 - 3 (2.3%)
$7,251-$7,500 - 6 (4.5%)
$7,501-$7,750 - 4 (3%)
$7,751-$8,000 - 12 (9.1%)
$8,001-$8,250 - 13 (9.8%)
$8,251-$8,500 - 7 (5.3%)
$8,501-$8,750 - 6 (4.5%)
$8,751-$9,000 - 11 (8.3%)
$9,001,$9,250 - 13 (9.8%)
$9,251-$9,500 - 17 (12.9%)
>$9,500 - 17 (12.9%)
$20,000 - 9 (6.8%)
Total Voters: 132

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21228864 times)
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micgoossens
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September 08, 2018, 06:46:10 PM

Believe me This HODL is writing all over me ;-) i have the Rollercoaster BTC tattoo now my friend also a Guy with Nice amount of BTC ... he’s Stressin and says if we go back up 5digit i tattoo HODL  Grin fun Guy always stressin but hodling as well
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September 08, 2018, 06:53:06 PM

Believe me This HODL is writing all over me ;-) i have the Rollercoaster BTC tattoo now my friend also a Guy with Nice amount of BTC ... he’s Stressin and says if we go back up 5digit i tattoo HODL  Grin fun Guy always stressin but hodling as well

Cool. I also wanna crypto tattoo, just "BTC" or something simple like this.  
Even if one day BTC will be replaced by one of new technologies, it will be good memory about these days )

HODL also nice but I would prefer TRADE ) as a trading fan
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September 08, 2018, 07:07:49 PM

$5xxx's here we come...
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September 08, 2018, 07:07:50 PM
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And down we go Sad
Don’t like seeing the CAP goes under 200.000.000$ but BTC dominance up 55.4% So we have to look like Thats cheering us up  Roll Eyes

I’m going to release some fiat this week & start buying again. I haven’t bought since 2015. I’ve just been HODLING.
I think considering we hit nearly $20,000 & have now fallen to $6,000 this represents a GREAT time to buy now. I think we’ll hit $50,000 not long after the halving so buying now you will make nearly over 10 x your investment if you buy now.

I’m definitely going to buy MOAR if we stay in this price range.

I know it´s not a popular opinion here but I would be careful.

We hit 20k because of mass media attracting tons of newcomers and massive FOMO from them. This will not happen again.

Now the rise has to be more or less natural.

So while I am sure the Halving will move the price up I am not sure if it even goes to 20k.
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September 08, 2018, 07:24:00 PM
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https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Gqzx8jnU-BITCOIN-LEGENDARY-ANALYSIS-LONG-TERM/
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September 08, 2018, 07:42:37 PM

^^
Not even 20k is a hard thing to say ...... its all a guess cause nobody knows the future but i think with all what BTC has to offer iT has a Nice shote for much bigger Numbers as 20k .... i realize iT in a very very very early moment but i expect much of iT , call iT a gutfeeling
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September 08, 2018, 07:44:45 PM

The ‘Crash’ is in ETH. What a shit show... Roll Eyes
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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September 08, 2018, 08:03:00 PM
Merited by crypmike (1)


i take it exactly as it looks, once your initial investment pays out in the tangible assets (money, physical items of worth, knowledge, whatever) its all gravy. i would think (hope) most people in this thread are in this category, ie playing with "house money." at this point even if my stack goes to zero the minute i type this i still made out.

now, one can always argue about lost profit opportunity from this point on, buts thats another animal to me.

Probably we think differently about this matter.
[...]
Therefore, I always thought that I needed a cushion, and therefore, I always considered that I had to monitor my system and approach to investing, to live within my means and to keep a certain aspect of my investment portfolio profitable. 

Part of my point in my above response is to suggest that in my own view and opinion, it is NOT enough for me to merely assert that "I got my principle back and I am 'in profits' " and I continually want to know more about my performance than those kinds of mere simplicities.  I don't necessarily expect others to carry out the same as me, but I still will question if anyone who seems to be asserting that it is enough data for them to conclude that they are "in profits" and they don't want to engage in further self-improvement. 

I am NOT referring to standards that are imposed on anyone from the outside but merely about standards that are imposed on oneself in his/her own aspirations and monitoring of his/her own progress.  I actually tend to resent when standards are imposed on me from someone else or someone suggest that I need to do x, y or z, but it does not seem unreasonable in my thinking to attempt to impose standards upon yourself and to attempt to monitor whether I am reaching my standards.. and that is part of the purpose of continued analysis rather than merely throwing up ones hands and asserting "I am in profits because I got my principle back."

im probably misunderstanding, but i read that more or less as "how is btc profit compared to my other investment goals that have the same amount of effort/capitol as far as my personal goals are concerned."

Well, many times the points of discussion can be taken into another direction or even raising other points, and surely it is fair to consider how BTC performs in comparison to other investments, but merely because it performs worse does not necessarily make it a bad investment unless it is always going down without going UP, which we know has not been the historical case with bitcoin.

Sometimes, people bring up their "other investments" in this thread in order to either denigrate bitcoin or to pump some other shit coin, and surely from my signature, it can be seen that I have been a bit down on the need to diversify into various alt coins; however, at the same time, I can certainly accept that other people might want to take a much larger (percentage-wise) position than me in various alt coins.  I do appreciate that there can be some utility in other people investing in various other crypto currencies, and I can even appreciate that sometimes their level of profits or even differing correlation (as compared with bitcoin) can cause those investments to be more profitable than bitcoin at various points in time.  Sometimes part of the bothersome aspect of various alt coins is that they frequently will appear to lack fundamentals, so their pump or even their differing correlation to bitcoin does not necessarily come from market fundamentals and reasonable movements in the market, but instead based on some kind of insider job pumping that comes from insiders and DEEP pockets based on their ability to move an illiquid market rather than actual broader possible appeal of the project based on fundamentals.

Ultimately, if we are merely considering how to structure personal finances and to fit bitcoin into one's overall strategy, then likely there is going to be considerable variance from person to person, not only in terms of how much of a percentage of his/her overall investment might be in bitcoin 1% to 10% or some other number, and also there might be differing strategies based on how much the person put into bitcoin and subsequently, if that allocation had gained relative to other investments.  My initial goal in 2013-2014 was to establish a 10% position in bitcoin (as compared with my other investments), but the down turn of the market and the tweaking of my strategies caused my allocation to reach in a 12% to 14% territory by nearing the end of 2015.  When BTC did nearly an 80x price increase in 2016 and 2016, that caused my allocation to be much more weighted in BTC just based on mere BTC price appreciation.. so yeah, then there can be questions about whether to reallocate or how much to reallocate or other strategies that might be employed to feel comfortable to UP or DOWN volatility... accounting for personal timeline as well (so for example if someone got into an investment and considered letting it ride for 10 years or more, s/he might not be too inclined to make significant short-term reallocations).

I think that in my earlier response, I was largely asserting that it can be quite lazy and superficial to just rest on some kind of superficial laurels to assert.. "I am all good because I got my principle out,"  especially if there might be longer time considerations in terms of a more specific investment strategy that can not only contain better attempts to tailor the investment to yourself and to learn from your investment and NOT merely be satisfied that you got your principle out.. which also could be a bit of a cowardly approach to an investment or showing that you are unnecessarily leery and gun-shy about the investment (namely bitcoin in this case).



i do agree that if you have only broke even well thats better than losing but if the same amount invested in something else you knew of at the time would of done better then its less profitable than you could of done. so basically, a fail. but we can only be so knowledgeable about such things. we learn as we go.

Probably, you are saying similar things to me here that not only involves our inability to know how one investment might perform compared to other investments, and we might just be making best guesses from time to time about the extent to which we might need to reallocate or if their might be some advantage in that... including the fact that we do not know.  Just because Ethereum may have done 10x better than Bitcoin for short terms, and maybe even if we had decent inklings that such blow up might happen, does not necessarily mean that we should invest in ethereum for those periods - because that remains unknown, in spite of our inklings in such direction that subsequently might end up being proven to be correct (even though we did not invest in that direction).   Many of us who  are active in this thread likely remember the ethereum is better than bitcoin because it is performing better blah blah blah flippening.. similar to dashening, and bcashening and rippling.. and even with all that pump bullshit, and maybe even some of us had inklings that they would pump more than bitcoin, but it is not necessarily a bad thing to have just stuck with bitcoin.

Oh, by the way, I can think of very wimpy scenarios in which someone may have invested in BTC at various points and then had an average of $500 per BTC or something like that, and then got out all of his principle at a way too low price point, and missed opportunities to profit more from bitcoin because of underinvestment and too bearish and too gunshy, but keeps come back to assertions that s/he got his principle back... blah blah blah.



so my investment in btc has fared unbelievably well compared to any other investments i have done. im so far past "made my initial money back" its stupid. now, i could of done better in the past (like buying early apple, microsoft, google etc stock) but the past is the past and hindsight can only serve as a lesson to learn. of my current investments, btc is king. even if it goes to zero today, as i have locked in so much profit.

You are correct that from time to time there are going to be more profitable investments whether in the crypto space or in the traditional investment (non-crypto) space.  It is difficult to know (without attempting to compare dick sizes) about how profitable you are or could be or could have been, and even if any of us long term HODLers made a lot of mistakes, we could still be in a position with BTC that it has stupendously outperform any other investment that we have ever made and our profits (and/or equity) has been sufficiently secured as to provide some bullet-proofness to us, if BTC were to go down (perhaps to zero).  However, I would not want to assume too much about having "locked in profits" because some times when push comes to shove, and if the BTC price were to go below certain points, we might assume the price is going back up and overinvest based on those kinds of bullish assumptions.. and end up getting screwed in spite of what we had considered to be be "locked in" profits.

so basically at this point im diversifying even at the cost of lower (but safer) returns but i am ok with that, im a belt and suspenders kind of guy. so i suppose one could say im leaving potential gains on the table but i realize that.


Yes, that might be a more conservative approach, but it also might be prudent. Each of us has to decide for ourselves about how much we want to put in and how much profits we want to take off the table or lock-in.


when you are long term contingency planning, and take worse case scenarios into account, you know you have to throw money/time into things that may not have much, if any, returns. even to the point that that money/time is purely wasted if whats its guarding against never happens. but thats just like paying an insurance premium to me. i sure would feel stupid with all my eggs in one basket if that basket breaks.

Of course, each of us make differing choices in this regard.  There are some folks who started out in BTC or perhaps other cryptos, but they do not have any other investments.  I personally already had a decent amount of time (more than 20 years) investing before bitcoin, so I consider quite a lot of my current bitcoin profits to be icing on the cake and I am o.k. keeping those in bitcoin, even if they go down... especially since my strategy continues to systematically buy on the way down, and there is a bit of a presumption (which could end up proving to be wrong) that bitcoin is going to go up in the long term and it is going to go up higher than it is today, so it is therefore presumptively profitable to buy BTC if the price goes down.  I feel more comfortable making such UP presumptions in bitcoin as compared to any other crypto investment and I feel that I have enough other traditional investments that sufficiently hedge my BTC investment in the event that BTC actually does go down (and stay down) a lot further and a lot longer than expected (perhaps to zero, which seems a very long shot, but NOT completely out of the realm of possible considerations).

so, at this point im more into making sure my wife and i have a secure future even if things go to crap than more profit.


Nothing wrong with that.


once i hit a certain level, my priorities shift. i am goal oriented, and once that goal is attained i turn to the next one. one can always go back and fortify any particular goal or position as needed later.

Actually, each of us should always considered empowered over our own investment plans and tweaking them from time to time as needed or as our views might change or as our financial situation or timeline or risk tolerance might change.  That could apply to only bitcoin or it could apply to all of our investments.  Surely, when bitcoin might have considerably outperformed other assets, sometimes, it might be prudent to reallocate, but it still seems a bit weird to me that those kinds of thought would just be coming now at $6,200-ish rather than having some carrying out of such plan at various points on the way to $19,666.  To each his/her own regarding whether you plan ahead or become emotional about our current down situation and might take too BIG of actions now, based on NOT having done anything previously when prices were in the supra $10k range.
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September 08, 2018, 08:04:50 PM

lol @ ETH  Grin Grin Grin

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September 08, 2018, 08:10:15 PM
Merited by Searing (1), JayJuanGee (1)

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September 08, 2018, 08:20:16 PM

could this be the pattern that takes us to 4k so we can start the bullrun already?

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September 08, 2018, 08:37:50 PM

Lets just get it over with.
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September 08, 2018, 08:42:46 PM

BTC Dominance: 55.8%

ALMOST THERE........

Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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September 08, 2018, 08:44:14 PM

The ‘Crash’ is in ETH. What a shit show... Roll Eyes

INDEED... LOL....  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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September 08, 2018, 08:45:29 PM

well, as a quite newbie (10 months) in crypto, i have to admit that im losing faith right now.
I want to be a holder (yes thats how we write this right?) but what worries me is not the ups and downs itself, but the rediculous drops that happened 3 times now... This means that some people actually can control my money.... again... And i dont like it.
Who can garantee that not all bitcoin eventually evaporates?
I mine the shit out of my equipment, and all it does this year is lose value... i cant mine enough to even increase in fiat value. Thats hugely dissapointing...

Everyone has a opinion here in bitcointalk, even some experts out there. It ranges from 2k to 150k dec18. How to take anyting in between serious? I see pretty graphs, all made in a way someone thinks instead of based on facts or knowledge, calculations, etc. Whats the value of it? Zilch...
Take a look back to all those pretty graphs... I bet none came actually true...

crypto? I think ponzi more and more...


Proof me wrong, please....
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September 08, 2018, 08:47:21 PM

The ‘Crash’ is in ETH. What a shit show... Roll Eyes

INDEED... LOL....  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

now.... WHY would it be funny if others lose money?

Just because its not "your" favorite coin?

These childish ego responses start to make me sick on this board... Tongue
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September 08, 2018, 08:50:37 PM

I mine the shit out of my equipment, and all it does this year is lose value... i cant mine enough to even increase in fiat value.

What equipment do you use to mine bitcoins?

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September 08, 2018, 08:51:17 PM

Unless my feeds are unduly delayed, it seems that declines in ETHUSD ‘lead’ the BTCUSD weakness with a few seconds. An altcoin leading the way; who could have known... Tongue
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September 08, 2018, 09:00:40 PM

Unless my feeds are unduly delayed, it seems that declines in ETHUSD ‘lead’ the BTCUSD weakness with a few seconds. An altcoin leading the way; who could have known... Tongue

ICOs cashing out ?    ETH->BTC->Fiat ?
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September 08, 2018, 09:03:47 PM

hard to tell. back when i started and btc was so cheap i didnt really pay attention. i got in it for the experimental aspect more than any profit. all i know is, aside from the first few years, every year i have less btc, but the real world value of that lessor amount of coins is more. usually much more.

as a miner you can look at it as dollar cost averaging, more or less. like i "buy" coin every week, non stop as long as i mine. then sell as needed.

ive mainly used btc as a kind of a "level up" thing. as in i mainly used them to "upgrade" stuff like vacations, toys, gifts etc to a higher level than i would of without btc. occasionally i would lock a chunk of profit up and put it into efts or other non crypto assets that (hopefully) earn returns in a more conventional, less risky way but of course with much less potential profit.

So it seems to appear that you are regularly taking profits in fiat and consumable goods, and you are not stacking aside bitcoin in a kind of fundamental view that bitcoin could potentially have more value some day. 

I understand that you have been in bitcoin longer than me, but largely I have considered bitcoin as something to attempt to stack up, so if I spend BTC, then I attempt to replace the ones that I spent.  I have been looser with myself regarding this in recent times, because I have established some ways to monitory my fiat versus BTC level, and created my own reasoned considerations regarding how many BTC that I want to maintain at certain price points, and if I have at least enough BTC to continue to reach that stacking BTC goal, then I don't mind shaving off a bit extra fiat for consumable goods.

im guessing you are younger than i. im on the wrong side of fifty. at my age i take less risk as im too old to start over.

Of course, age should be a considered factor for any investment strategy, yet to me, it seems that my assertion of your approach is not so much related to age, but instead what seems to be your gunshyness about BTC.

Of course, you can do whatever, you believe is best for you and your family, and like I mentioned in my previous post, I had already developed a pretty decent portfolio of investments prior to my involvement in BTC, so therefore, my BTC has been a kind of icing on the cake of my previous investments.  I don't feel any compelling need to reallocate into my other investments apart from the fact that I believe that my strategy of selling BTC on the way UP and buying BTC on the way down (largely with the proceeds that I have accumulated on the way UP) causes a largely sufficient amount of lessening the risk of the BTC portion of my investment.

So, overall, I consider that my taking about a 13%-ish investment into bitcoin as compared to the value of my other investments was perhaps a few percent higher than I initially had planned, but such allocation has allowed me to feel o.k. if BTC prices go down (and perhaps even the a bit higher than anticipated initial investment into BT causes me to feel o.k. shaving off some profits as the prices go UP. .and NOT getting too anxious either way that hte price moves.. even though of course, I feel much better when BTC prices are UP and going up... but still, even considering all matters, if BTC prices were to go to $1k, that is still 4x higher than BTC prices were through most of 2015 - and I even doubt that there is very much likelihood that BTC prices are going to go to $1k.. They would surely have to break through a lot of support levels to get down to the $1k arena.. even seeming to have some difficulties getting below $6k and/or staying below $6k for any meaningful amount of time.


if i were younger i certainly would be increasing my stack as finances allow. i hope to get back to that too once certain new goals are met. but as of right now, other priorities are more important.

Nothing wrong with that.  Tentatively, I am thinking that I might start cashing out of BTC in 5 to 10 years, but that tentative timeline is not going to cause me to NOT cash out some sooner, if I believe that it might work for me for whatever reason.  I already have a fund that pretty much is allocated to buying BTC on the way down and enough BTC to sell on the way up to keep fueling the fund.. So generally, I tend to extract anticipated future expenses from my other monies... which seems to go to the principle of NOT investing more than you can afford to lose.. while at the same time, I have no problem with guys (and gal) who consider it to be in their interest to permanently cash out some of their BTC holdings on the way up in order to lock in profits and perhaps not even having a buying back plan on dips.. I just find it a bit more problematic to be cashing out on the way down.. but that relates to me and how I attempt to prepare myself which I understand might NOT have worked out as well for some other folks.

not depleting your stack and especially increasing your stack is always a good thing. for instance i have recently taken advantage of btcs currently lower price to replace some that i sold ~100% higher earlier in the year. but im still down btc from last year.

That seems to be a good thing, and supports a conclusion that you have been cashing out some BTC on the way up.   I don't think that it is necessary for any BTC investor / HODLer to necessarily maintain his/her stack quantity, because there should be some projection that as the BTC price goes up, the quantity of your BTC stash would go down, unless you happen to have some lucky breaks along the way.. and of course, with ongoing BTC volatility and expected continued BTC volatility, there are likely going to be some lucky breaks along the way, just built into the already existing BTC price dynamics - and likely expectations.

i see btc as a tool. a new, experimental tool to manage value. and its still experimental really. there is still the risk it will fail.

Seems that you have been in BTC long enough to recognize that BTC has gotten past quite a few obstacles in recent years, and the level of its experimentation is NOT as high as it was a few years ago.  Furthermore, those of us who have spent a considerable amount of tim e learning about BTC are able to advantage ourselves from the disparity of information and the ignorance of the public regarding this particular topic.   Even though we may want to prepare ourselves for either scenario, we should not be so timid as to underinvest in BTC just because we see a lot of stupid-ass bearish information out there that is based on misinformation or perhaps purposeful disinformation about the topic that we know about - namely BTC.

or, through personal error, my wallets could get compromised and coins stolen.

Of course, these things can happen, but the more that we know about bitcoin, the more we know that it is necessary to take several precautions to lessen these kinds of risks - even if we are NOT able to completely remove them.  Once again, if we have been in bitcoin awhile then we can learn as we go on these matters and recognize various security measures that are important (perhaps necessary) that newbies BTC investors are not going to as likely recognize.

so im using part of my stack to diversify into different non crypto holding in case it all goes south.

Do what you like, because it is ultimately your money.. but hopeful you are NOT being too BTC timid and selling on dips rather than selling when the price goes up.... Ultimately, you are the sovereign of your own BTC investment and its allocation level(s).

maybe because i got into it fairly early, i still see it as a tool to be used, not as a "get rich" thing. although i hope we all do. but currently im using it now to secure our (wife and i) future with as little risk as possible.

To me, it seems that if you had been in longer then you would not seem to be coming off as someone who is selling on the way down... hahahahha  or possibly advocating that others consider such an approach... and being in a long time should have already allowed you to do what you need to do when prices were going up.. .hopefully.



so on average for the last few years i have generally spent more btc than i replace.

There is nothing wrong with that, and seems definitely acceptable when your coins are in decent profits.



at this stage in my life  i have changed some priorities and used btc profit to try and ensure a more than comfortable retirement (if all goes even close to well). we were at the point that retirement should go well for us anyway but its time to revisit that position and nail down a few potential lose ends. once im happy with that i will go back to accumulation. at least i hope to.

It sounds as if you are in a decent position, and surely it is neither bad to rethink your allocations from time to time and also to reconsider your fiat-based reserves.  Part of my reason for getting into bitcoin in the first place was that I was looking for a gold-like investment of an asset that was possibly inversely correlated to the performance of the dollar - because I thought that I had too many investments that seemed to be too highly correlated to the dollar's performance.  I never really liked gold for its storage difficulties and I had always been skeptical about paper gold (and the degree to which it would be sufficiently non-correlated to the dollar's performance), so therefore bitcoin seems to have been (for me) a much better (more portable too) version of gold and could take on some of the diversification risk that I thought that I needed in my overall investments.  

I still don't feel overallocated into bitcoin, but I understand that others might conclude or even reanalyze and conclude that they are more allocated into BTC than what they consider (after reanalysis) to be prudent.
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