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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 41 (28.5%)
2020 - 57 (39.6%)
2021 - 33 (22.9%)
2022 - 7 (4.9%)
2023 - 1 (0.7%)
Never - 5 (3.5%)
Total Voters: 144

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21178151 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (24 posts by 13 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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September 17, 2018, 05:18:58 AM

My gf is pretty angry at me regarding bitcoin to be honest. If I’d cashed out at the ATH I’d have become a millionaire. At the current prices with my HODLED stash, I’m not.

She keeps telling me ‘bitcoin is finished, it must be over, you should have cashed out, we’ll never get another chance like that’.

It’s times like this I look at different charts from the past that show % drops from ATH’s & then look at the subsequent recoveries & new ATH’s that makes me smile & know everything will be ok.

Look out for 6-12 months after the next halving, that’s when I believe we will be wealthy bulls Cheesy

A GF is one thing, but a wifey would be another thing. 

Perhaps your GF knows too much about your bitcoin stash, especially if her status remains GF, and it may be time to NEXT her or are you planning some kind of longer partnership with her?  Another possibility would be waiting for 2021, in order to NEXT her?

Whether you are in a close relationship or not, it seems problematic to have a significant other influencing your financial choices, if you have a joint venture, such as a business or a marriage that concludes that your BTC stash is also owned by your partner, then you might have to account for the less bullish posture of the other person(s) in the relationship....

Even though I agree that bitcoin has great chances of success in the coming years, I am not your business partner, so my opinion does not matter, yet we know that if we have total discretion over our investment decisions and we end up being wrong, then we should also be able to calculate how much we will lose, whether that is opportunity costs with our money or actual losses from being wrong.
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Wekkel
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yes


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September 17, 2018, 05:41:51 AM
Last edit: September 17, 2018, 06:49:41 AM by Wekkel

The 4hr looks scary, but one could also say that the 2hr has nicely cooled and turning around for the next push upwards.

That’s the trouble with directionless markets: you can basically see any pattern. It depends on your conviction.

The last time, this 4hr situation was met with a truncated price action neutralising the down wave before it could do harm. I hope traders are lazy and take that as comfort and dare to hold on, because a leg down from here could be considerable (testing 2018 lows again).
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September 17, 2018, 05:45:32 AM
Merited by Hueristic (5), vapourminer (1), infofront (1)

Wife knows all about what I got and is cool and calm about it all and trusts me to sell when it is the right time to.

We have plans to build a new house. We bought the land back in December last year, sold enough BTC to pay for the land deposit and architect fees then, pretty much a day before the peak. It has been a long drawn out process getting planning sorted, the plans are not quite finalised yet still.

What I have in BTC is enough to build half the planned house, and so we sit and wait for it to come back up before we start building.

We currently own our current house with only a small mortgage left on it as well, so we aren't wasting rent money waiting here. Just with a toddler and a baby now, the current house is getting a bit cramped.

New house is going to be in the order of 10,000 sqft all up on a 5 acre plot. Grin
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September 17, 2018, 05:54:27 AM
Merited by Hueristic (2)

4 hour chart looks ugly. Signaling a dump.

  • painfully low volume indicating a lack of enthusiasm at current prices
  • pair of dojis at the top signaling price reversals
  • overall short term price down trend



I doubt it there's going to be any major dump anytime soon.

1. Average Joes have sold BTC long ago (back in March-June)
2. The whales are not selling as they have bought from Average Joes all the way down. In fact they're waiting for an opportunity to pump
3. Miners/Jihan etc can't dump more they've already been dumping on a regular basis

So who can dump?

The only risk I see is the same old MtGox/Silk Road/Satoshi  Grin etc cashing out. But why would they sell the whole stash in one go?  

P.S. Forgot the good old FUD: US bans BTC or similar  Grin
HairyMaclairy
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September 17, 2018, 06:28:36 AM

For what it’s worth, we are now down $54 from my original call.  Chart continues to look like something the cat dragged in.



JayJuanGee
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September 17, 2018, 06:34:39 AM
Merited by Hueristic (2), Majormax (1), infofront (1)


Largely, I agree that currently we are not in a crypto winter.

Is that because things don't look gloomy enough ? (yet)  .. or because it won't happen ?

By now, Majormax, you should know me well enough to realize that I don't really make predictions, but instead I get pleasure out of criticizing the predictions of others, especially when they start to get into language or math (or technical analysis) that seem to be demonstrating that they know what the fuck is going to happen - if they are expressing anything greater than 75% likely (or 25 % unlikely, in the inverse) then I might become inspired to be on it like a fly on shit.

In other words, I don't know, what is going to happen, but I surely don't think that the 2014 case is playing out yet, and there are still decent odds that we are in an early 2013 scenario rather than in a late 2013 scenario.

These so far unsuccessful about 5 attempts to break below $6k don't necessarily play well for the bear case, but they do not come anywhere close to guaranteeing a bullish scenario either, because for me to feel comfortable and out of the woods, then BTC price is going to have to return comfortably into the area in which it is testing $10k resistance and even perhaps breaking through such resistance - even if such breaking through is NOT sustained, I might become a bit more comfortable that the bottom is already in, and that our current crypto winter (baby winter) is NOT going to be as bad as the 2014-2015 crypto winter (arguably dragging into 2016).


How long at these levels or lower, before the CryptoWinter definition is met ?

I understand that some of these low prices that are NOT really breaking free of $6k for more than 7 months is NOT really comfortable for some HODLers and some who accumulated their BTC in the $10k plus prices, but still our current prices have so far not gotten close to the previous ATH (around $1,163) nor even close to sub $3k which a lot of bearish technical analysis bitcoin skeptics are proclaiming to be necessary levels of pain (blood in the streets).

I am not trying to be pessimistic here, because it is important to be open to all possibilities.

Maybe you could say that, by the time the Crypto Winter is easily visible, we will have been in it long enough for it to be over !

I believe that part of my criticism of you earlier had been that I thought that you were painting the bear scenario and the crypto winter as a kind of inevitability, and you started with some of those proclamations in the January time frame, even though personally, I though that those kinds of views were too pessimistic and also too much closing off that the blow off top had not yet happened (and we were merely in an extended BTC price correction). 

Surely, a lot of what you predicted has already come true, even though, so far, it has not reached as dire of levels as you seemed to had been anticipating, and actually, it seems to me that you make a very good point to assert that we might not know what is(was) the crypto winter until either we are "in it" for a long time, or we are coming out of it or that we are sufficiently out of it to be able to assess its parameters in hindsight.
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September 17, 2018, 06:57:55 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

She got a sister? Cheesy

JayJuanGee
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September 17, 2018, 07:04:00 AM

Welp at the current price of $6495 we are down $18 since that previous chart.  So yeah.  
I am sort of using WO to keep myself honest with my price predictions and see how I track.  I would welcome contrary views.  I miss Tera he taught me a lot.

<——————— should give you an indication as to whether you should trade based on my charting



Citing Tera as your source of authority is not likely to win you many WO thread friends.    Tongue Tongue
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September 17, 2018, 07:25:15 AM

Would you prefer Proudhon?
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September 17, 2018, 08:20:20 AM




These so far unsuccessful about 5 attempts to break below $6k don't necessarily play well for the bear case, but they do not come anywhere close to guaranteeing a bullish scenario either, because for me to feel comfortable and out of the woods, then BTC price is going to have to return comfortably into the area in which it is testing $10k resistance and even perhaps breaking through such resistance - even if such breaking through is NOT sustained, I might become a bit more comfortable that the bottom is already in, and that our current crypto winter (baby winter) is NOT going to be as bad as the 2014-2015 crypto winter (arguably dragging into 2016).




I like your analysis generally. 

Most posters, as you point out, come out with proclamations based on either nothing, or misread/false facts.

Given that nobody has a crystal ball, it takes a bit of skill and experience to express a cogent scenario. Making cases for alternative price moves is nearly always the best way.


'Baby Winter'  :  could be possible, and it helps the case for the bottom being already in. If its a full Winter, then a bottom in the 2-3k range is more possible. I hate the idea of that, but the market often makes us take the worst tasting medicine.

Whichever way, it will be a long climb out, and patience is needed.
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September 17, 2018, 08:24:25 AM


So what happens now ?


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September 17, 2018, 08:26:39 AM


So what happens now ?




Now we fall... Wink
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September 17, 2018, 08:38:20 AM

It's complicated ... we need new bulls to return bullish  Angry   HOLD FOREVER  Grin
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September 17, 2018, 08:51:43 AM

It's complicated ... we need new bulls to return bullish  Angry   HOLD FOREVER  Grin

You spelled n00bs wrong  Wink
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September 17, 2018, 08:56:27 AM

Now we fall... Wink

More likely we just keep breaking sideways until we achieve a trigger.

It's complicated ... we need new bulls to return bullish  Angry   HOLD FOREVER  Grin

You spelled n00bs wrong  Wink

You sound like someone who sold the top of the market at $3k.  
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September 17, 2018, 08:58:34 AM
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@infofront



you just simply do NOT let one hanging on the NR of the beast  Shocked    
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Be safe, Elwar and Nadia !!


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September 17, 2018, 09:06:31 AM

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September 17, 2018, 09:09:03 AM


It means he's a nocoiner or panic-sold low or a paid bear shill  Grin
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September 17, 2018, 09:18:54 AM
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Now we fall... Wink

More likely we just keep breaking sideways until we achieve a trigger.

It's complicated ... we need new bulls to return bullish  Angry   HOLD FOREVER  Grin

You spelled n00bs wrong  Wink

You sound like someone who sold the top of the market at $3k.  

1. Feels like it's 50/50 for sideways/down.

2. Nope, I did sell some. But it was all at $10k+.



It means he's a nocoiner or panic-sold low or a paid bear shill  Grin

I'm such a dumbass. I've been doing it for free...
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September 17, 2018, 09:54:04 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Or just a bear trap. This is a classical falling wedge pattern btw.  
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wedge_pattern
"When this pattern is found in an uptrend, it is considered a bullish pattern, as the market range becomes narrower into the correction, indicating that the downward trend is losing strength and the resumption of the uptrend is in the making. "
Since the creation of Bitcoin we are in an uptrend, so its resumption is in the making.
I expect a strong breakout soon. Moreover, any moment CFTC will approve ICE futures (the so called bakkt) which is with an actual buying of bitcoins. So we may see above 10K sooner than expected!
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