Largely, I agree that currently we are not in a crypto winter.
Is that because things don't look gloomy enough ? (yet) .. or because it won't happen ?
By now, Majormax, you should know me well enough to realize that I don't really make predictions, but instead I get pleasure out of criticizing the predictions of others, especially when they start to get into language or math (or technical analysis) that seem to be demonstrating that they know what the fuck is going to happen - if they are expressing anything greater than 75% likely (or 25 % unlikely, in the inverse) then I might become inspired to be on it like a fly on shit.
In other words, I don't know, what is going to happen, but I surely don't think that the 2014 case is playing out yet, and there are still decent odds that we are in an early 2013 scenario rather than in a late 2013 scenario.
These so far unsuccessful about 5 attempts to break below $6k don't necessarily play well for the bear case, but they do not come anywhere close to guaranteeing a bullish scenario either, because for me to feel comfortable and out of the woods, then BTC price is going to have to return comfortably into the area in which it is testing $10k resistance and even perhaps breaking through such resistance - even if such breaking through is NOT sustained, I might become a bit more comfortable that the bottom is already in, and that our current crypto winter (baby winter) is NOT going to be as bad as the 2014-2015 crypto winter (arguably dragging into 2016).
How long at these levels or lower, before the CryptoWinter definition is met ?
I understand that some of these low prices that are NOT really breaking free of $6k for more than 7 months is NOT really comfortable for some HODLers and some who accumulated their BTC in the $10k plus prices, but still our current prices have so far not gotten close to the previous ATH (around $1,163) nor even close to sub $3k which a lot of bearish technical analysis bitcoin skeptics are proclaiming to be necessary levels of pain (blood in the streets).
I am not trying to be pessimistic here, because it is important to be open to all possibilities.
Maybe you could say that, by the time the Crypto Winter is easily visible, we will have been in it long enough for it to be over !
I believe that part of my criticism of you earlier had been that I thought that you were painting the bear scenario and the crypto winter as a kind of inevitability, and you started with some of those proclamations in the January time frame, even though personally, I though that those kinds of views were too pessimistic and also too much closing off that the blow off top had not yet happened (and we were merely in an extended BTC price correction).
Surely, a lot of what you predicted has already come true, even though, so far, it has not reached as dire of levels as you seemed to had been anticipating, and actually, it seems to me that you make a very good point to assert that we might not know what is(was) the crypto winter until either we are "in it" for a long time, or we are coming out of it or that we are sufficiently out of it to be able to assess its parameters in hindsight.
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