Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ibian]

Nice to see Monero back in the top ten. Could have been there for awhile mind you and I haven’t noticed.

Are you invested in monero?

I am conflicted about Monero.  I love the idea of a truly anonymous currency.  But from an investment point of view, I think their tail emissions policy is flawed.  I know it is only 0.6 XMR per block, but I feel that is enough to have a real impact on supply, meaning that Bitcoin is a far superior long term investment.  

So I watch Monero closely but don't hold any.  I had a fair stack that I sold for Bitcoin at the start of this year.  If I start to feel that Bitcoin is under threat, I might go back to holding some Monero as a hedge.  I held a stack of Monero through the Bcash debacle as a defensive hedge. 

Far more importantly, if you have a few millions set aside and you cash them out to buy, say, a house, the taxman will show up with Questions.

Being below board is simply not worth it in the current culture.

[1713987039]

1713987039

[1713987039]

1713987039

[HI-TEC99]

Who sold at the bottom?

I sold a little when it looked like it wasn't going to break $10k and then I cried all the way to $20k and back down..
I don't feel too bad about it now but I would like to buy it back..

I doubt many of expected it to break 10k, then quickly pump up to 20k. I thought it would briefly touch 10k then crash back down again. At least you didn't buy back at a higher price than you sold at. Sell high, buy back low.

[HairyMaclairy]

Long range price forecast for balance of 2018.

[HairyMaclairy]

Nice to see Monero back in the top ten. Could have been there for awhile mind you and I haven’t noticed.

Are you invested in monero?

I am conflicted about Monero.  I love the idea of a truly anonymous currency.  But from an investment point of view, I think their tail emissions policy is flawed.  I know it is only 0.6 XMR per block, but I feel that is enough to have a real impact on supply, meaning that Bitcoin is a far superior long term investment.  

So I watch Monero closely but don't hold any.  I had a fair stack that I sold for Bitcoin at the start of this year.  If I start to feel that Bitcoin is under threat, I might go back to holding some Monero as a hedge.  I held a stack of Monero through the Bcash debacle as a defensive hedge.  

Far more importantly, if you have a few millions set aside and you cash them out to buy, say, a house, the taxman will show up with Questions.

Being below board is simply not worth it in the current culture.

I am not American so not subject to tax on my global income if I stop being a tax resident of my country of residence.  If I ever trigger a retirement event through crypto, I will just move offshore.  All perfectly legal. 

[Ibian]

Nice to see Monero back in the top ten. Could have been there for awhile mind you and I haven’t noticed.

Are you invested in monero?

I am conflicted about Monero.  I love the idea of a truly anonymous currency.  But from an investment point of view, I think their tail emissions policy is flawed.  I know it is only 0.6 XMR per block, but I feel that is enough to have a real impact on supply, meaning that Bitcoin is a far superior long term investment.  

So I watch Monero closely but don't hold any.  I had a fair stack that I sold for Bitcoin at the start of this year.  If I start to feel that Bitcoin is under threat, I might go back to holding some Monero as a hedge.  I held a stack of Monero through the Bcash debacle as a defensive hedge.  

Far more importantly, if you have a few millions set aside and you cash them out to buy, say, a house, the taxman will show up with Questions.

Being below board is simply not worth it in the current culture.

I am not American so not subject to tax on my global income if I stop being a tax resident of my country of residence.  If I ever trigger a retirement event through crypto, I will just move offshore.  All perfectly legal. 

It might be legal, in theory, now. But states always want more power and control, never less. Laws change.

[Stevenirving]

OT: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/amazon-planning-8-new-alexa-devices-microwave-amplifier.html

This is getting hilariously stupid. They literally want you to have devices crammed in every orifice of your life so they can monitor and spy on you.... everywhere.

Talk about a Trojan horse.  

We are your Corporate Overlords. Lower your shields and surrender your ships. We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own. Your culture will adapt to service us. Resistance is futile.

[JayJuanGee]

Wife knows all about what I got and is cool and calm about it all and trusts me to sell when it is the right time to.

We have plans to build a new house. We bought the land back in December last year, sold enough BTC to pay for the land deposit and architect fees then, pretty much a day before the peak. It has been a long drawn out process getting planning sorted, the plans are not quite finalised yet still.

What I have in BTC is enough to build half the planned house, and so we sit and wait for it to come back up before we start building.

We currently own our current house with only a small mortgage left on it as well, so we aren't wasting rent money waiting here. Just with a toddler and a baby now, the current house is getting a bit cramped.

New house is going to be in the order of 10,000 sqft all up on a 5 acre plot.

Your purported situation comes off as if it were contrived in that you are both suggesting that you sold a large chunk of your BTC at the top of the market and that you are waiting for the BTC price to go up in order to be able to carry out the rest of the project - perhaps even short-sighted if you are planning real estate projects based on bitcoin price movements without any other cushion.

Does your wife happen to be a 10, too?   or at least a 9.3?

[JayJuanGee]

Would you prefer Proudhon?

You make me feel like this, Hairybeary:

[Hueristic]

All of this is still just noise. Wake me up if price goes below $6,00.

Fuck!
I’ll hang myself if it goes below 6 dollars

Wtf i think there Will be Many hangings if that happens.......

Right now it would actually be amusing as all the hangings would be on Wall Street!

Everyone here would just buy M0ar!

Something similar already happened in 2011 when gox got hacked, and Bitcoin crashed to one cent each. The price went back up afterwards and 2011 hodlers are now rich. If it goes below $6 I'll be simultaneously buying and crying.

LOL, the Crying Buy! Do we have a Meme for that?

Reminds me of the Crying call in poker.

I had to make one for a grand last week when the board went runner runner straight on my set.

[JayJuanGee]

These so far unsuccessful about 5 attempts to break below $6k don't necessarily play well for the bear case, but they do not come anywhere close to guaranteeing a bullish scenario either, because for me to feel comfortable and out of the woods, then BTC price is going to have to return comfortably into the area in which it is testing $10k resistance and even perhaps breaking through such resistance - even if such breaking through is NOT sustained, I might become a bit more comfortable that the bottom is already in, and that our current crypto winter (baby winter) is NOT going to be as bad as the 2014-2015 crypto winter (arguably dragging into 2016).

I like your analysis generally. 

Most posters, as you point out, come out with proclamations based on either nothing, or misread/false facts.

Given that nobody has a crystal ball, it takes a bit of skill and experience to express a cogent scenario. Making cases for alternative price moves is nearly always the best way.


'Baby Winter'  :  could be possible, and it helps the case for the bottom being already in. If its a full Winter, then a bottom in the 2-3k range is more possible. I hate the idea of that, but the market often makes us take the worst tasting medicine.

Whichever way, it will be a long climb out, and patience is needed.

You would not presume that I would not quibble a bit with the tension in what you are saying, here,  which seems to be referring to: 1) a variation of possible outcomes and 2) your seeming contrasting of a "baby winter" versus a "full winter" as if those were the only two scenarios.

Your statements seems to in tension.. hahahahahaha

relieve the tension... relieve the tension.




In that regard, it seems to me that there are a lot of scenario variants in between the 1) "bottom is in" versus the 2) "bottom is in the $2k-$3k arena.   Even though one or the other scenario might be the most likely of scenarios, merely because another scenario might be less likely would not reasonably conclude that the less likely variant would NOT end up being the outcome (which plays well into the nobody knows idea, even while perhaps being able to agree on scenarios that are more likely but don't end up playing out even while they are more likely). 

[toknormal]

It appears big players are accumulating. It's only the small ones that are selling.

OBV is giving a contrary indication to EMA price moving averages and has been on an uptrend since late March.

[ssmc2]

It appears big players are accumulating. It's only the small ones that are selling.

OBV is giving a contrary indication to EMA price moving averages and has been on an uptrend since late March. Top

Interesting.  Has this been an indicator of future price movement in the past?

[JayJuanGee]

I just pulled the trigger and bought another $1000 from $6500.  

It was a risky decision if you think for short term but since I am here till 2021 It doesn't matter much...

In the long run it doesn't matter much. People were trying to buy the bottom in 2015, but it didn't make much difference if you bought in at $150, or $200, or $250. By 2021 the price could be hundreds of thousands of dollars, and $6500 coins will be a distant memory.

Actually, in 2014, when the price was fluctuating between $400 and $700, I recall some members crying about coins that they bought in the $700 range or even higher, and other members asserting that in the longer run, all of those coins are going to be profitable - which ended up being the case by late 2016 - and all of those coins became very profitable by mid-2017 without really returning to being unprofitable.

In the end, if we keep buying bitcoin and engaging in a kind of hybrid dollar cost average that also attempts to buy on dips, we are likely to profit handsomely, even if we make a few mistakes here and there.  The most profitable were the ones who took some kind of stake in bitcoin and stuck with accumulating, rather than waiting on the sidelines for the price to drop - which seemed to neither come when you wanted it and price drops do not tend to inspire confidence for a lot of folks, even when attempting to HODL and ACCUMULATL through it  

So even when the folks who sold in the $1k to $3k arena may have felt profitable, at this time it still seems questionable whether they are going to be able to get back into bitcoin anywhere near their selling price and they also missed a lot of opportunity to sell some or all of their BTC at much higher prices.  By the way, if you are investing in BTC long term, rather than short term, then you should not be cashing out all of your BTC, even if the price goes shooting up, even though it might well be prudent to shave some of the profits off on the way up by selling reasonable portions of your stash that allows you to still have some, in the event that the price keeps going up beyond your expectations, which seems to be about 3x to 5x of greater than expected returns (on paper) of what happened in December 2017.

[Resumean]

[JayJuanGee]

CAUTION! Volatile days ahead:

Yeah that doesn’t read good I’m afraid. If I was a day trader I’d go short right now.

"Going short" means using margin, right?

Is there a way to still be a day trader without using margin?  

So, if you are trader that does NOT use margin, then that would be selling, right now.  Either way (using margin to bet on down or selling right now), does not seem good to me.  But what do I know?  especially when it comes to profitably playing the dynamics of margin?

[JayJuanGee]

It's like climbing mount Everest for weeks and then going down in a high speed elevator in minutes! Anyway, the best thing you can do is HODL!  

That is quite the elevator, image.  A more than 5 mile elevator, whoaza!!!!


It would not look this nice.




But it would not look as extreme as a space elevator, either.  Somewhere in the middle.

[JayJuanGee]

Just to be clear, are we using reversed barts and the like unironically here?

Yep

I don't like the term "reverse bart" because it looks more like an "upside down bart" to me.

[BTCHadzija]

lmao

[Searing]

I just pulled the trigger and bought another $1000 from $6500.  

It was a risky decision if you think for short term but since I am here till 2021 It doesn't matter much...

In the long run it doesn't matter much. People were trying to buy the bottom in 2015, but it didn't make much difference if you bought in at $150, or $200, or $250. By 2021 the price could be hundreds of thousands of dollars, and $6500 coins will be a distant memory.

Actually, in 2014, when the price was fluctuating between $400 and $700, I recall some members crying about coins that they bought in the $700 range or even higher, and other members asserting that in the longer run, all of those coins are going to be profitable - which ended up being the case by late 2016 - and all of those coins became very profitable by mid-2017 without really returning to being unprofitable.

In the end, if we keep buying bitcoin and engaging in a kind of hybrid dollar cost average that also attempts to buy on dips, we are likely to profit handsomely, even if we make a few mistakes here and there.  The most profitable were the ones who took some kind of stake in bitcoin and stuck with accumulating, rather than waiting on the sidelines for the price to drop - which seemed to neither come when you wanted it and price drops do not tend to inspire confidence for a lot of folks, even when attempting to HODL and ACCUMULATL through it  

So even when the folks who sold in the $1k to $3k arena may have felt profitable, at this time it still seems questionable whether they are going to be able to get back into bitcoin anywhere near their selling price and they also missed a lot of opportunity to sell some or all of their BTC at much higher prices.  By the way, if you are investing in BTC long term, rather than short term, then you should not be cashing out all of your BTC, even if the price goes shooting up, even though it might well be prudent to shave some of the profits off on the way up by selling reasonable portions of your stash that allows you to still have some, in the event that the price keeps going up beyond your expectations, which seems to be about 3x to 5x of greater than expected returns (on paper) of what happened in December 2017.

with the world the way it is (Trump Admin and I expect a doozy of a Recession as a result of the 1/2 Trillion Dollar Permanent tax cuts to the wealthy in the USA)

I am following this plan. I retired in Jan when BTC and ALTS were high (duh) thus the goal is to last until I'm 65 at worst or 66 at best (full retirement age w/soc sec) with my

crypto assets. With all the drama I finally just took all my assets traditional and crypto and cut them in HALF for returns etc for retirement use until 66 years. My worse case guess say.

Thus working with the disabled in my lifetime of work I had the buying power of my working life of about $35k say average....with 1/2 assets in crypto, as I state above shot down to 1/2

of value of today...still.. 35k buying power is still possible if needed

the next 3 years till traditional investments and social security kick in (even thou have to buy my own insurance till 65 years for next 1.5 years)

and if crypto and all goes poof or even less than half value in next 2-3 years my traditional investments will cover me at 66 with soc sec etc (no debts) at you guessed it 35k

Thus, figure it is out of my hands. If I am correct..covered...if I am not I'm in much better shape...viewing it this way than fretting about it ..anyway...how I look at this.

Been thru 5 recessions...I'd suggest folk, pay off the j.c.penny card and such..knock off debts, get new tires, do SOMETHING in a proactive manner because we are more than due

for a recession. IMHO. Again, if I'm wrong I'm still Golden ..if I am right at least I did something. Again, always helps to have your debts down and ducks in a row when such happens.

You are a LOT less hard on yourself.

anyway, my coping mechanism these days. I really can't see folk selling their hoard of BTC or altcoins at 25% loss (15% cap gains and in my case 10% state taxes) just to watch

the stock market goes down 40% after you swap them to traditional investments. (yeah, I know typical downturn is 20% and takes 3-4yrs to recover from. I'm betting 40% deep

a recession and 7  years to recover from) Thus losing 'potentially' 65% of your BTC and/or altcoin stash as worse-case IF BTC and altcoins act like gold and go sideways or up

in such times, ie a store of value...well...again seems damn silly, to put BTC or alt into such ..I'll take my chances HODL mode or as much as I can and stay retired

You can bug me about how wrong I may be on this in 3 years on the thread....but how I'm 'dubiously' mentally and such preparing for the next recession. Just saying HODL.

Chump or Champ in HODL mode. We will be the first to know I guess. (after the fact as usual)

[JayJuanGee]

All of this is still just noise. Wake me up if price goes below $6,00.

Fuck!
I’ll hang myself if it goes below 6 dollars

Wtf i think there Will be Many hangings if that happens.......

Right now it would actually be amusing as all the hangings would be on Wall Street!

Everyone here would just buy M0ar!

Something similar already happened in 2011 when gox got hacked, and Bitcoin crashed to one cent each. The price went back up afterwards and 2011 hodlers are now rich. If it goes below $6 I'll be simultaneously buying and crying.

LOL, the Crying Buy! Do we have a Meme for that?

Reminds me of the Crying call in poker.

I had to make one for a grand last week when the board went runner runner straight on my set.

How about this one?