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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 43 (28.7%)
2020 - 59 (39.3%)
2021 - 34 (22.7%)
2022 - 8 (5.3%)
2023 - 1 (0.7%)
Never - 5 (3.3%)
Total Voters: 150

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21179835 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (24 posts by 13 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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September 24, 2018, 06:23:16 AM

I’d rather see a panic dump towards $5,200 first so that it is absolutely clear that we’ve hit bottom. But life is not always fair. Far from that.

I don't see how a kind of fulfilling of that $5,200 price range wish helps anything, unless you have already sold BTC or shorted BTC in order to bet on a kind of modest drop like that.

If you are objectively analyzing the BTC price and the current market, on the other hand, do you really believe that such a drop to $5,200-ish or some other point is necessary before BTC can have enough shaking of weak hands to go up with solid support (and a sufficient weeding out of the weak hands)?

I am thinking that if the BTC price were to drop that far down, into a kind of $5,200 range, then there would be additional people that would begin to question that $5,200 price as "the bottom," more bears would become emboldened to try to push the BTC price lower and likely we would be worse off than we are right now in terms of the chances that the "bottom is in."

So it seems to me that right now we can continue to meander around in a kind of random and uncertain bouncing between $6k and $8,500, without any real certainty about where the BTC price is going, and then just bounce out of the range at some later date, when the market is ready for such bouncing out.  In other words, there is no real way to rush any of this, but I don't see how going down to $5,200 would necessarily make this process quicker than from the place where we already are.
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September 24, 2018, 06:39:07 AM

HairyMaclairy
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September 24, 2018, 06:46:52 AM

I didn't mean 10 seconds later.....

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September 24, 2018, 07:10:43 AM

I didn't mean 10 seconds later.....



Why waste time? Wink
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September 24, 2018, 07:26:21 AM

Still, this rally isn’t broken yet.
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September 24, 2018, 07:29:21 AM



Rationale:  we are going to stick our head above the trend line again to hunt short stops, and then drop back down again.  
That's the way I see it too, and that's what seems to be happening now. We could peak a little higher still, though.

Some of you supposed inner bulls are a bunch of sour pusses, and makes me NOT want to hang around with you nor to introduce you to my friends because you are making the parade less fun... ...  Tongue Tongue    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  Didn't Tera beara have that tendency?
We need some critical thinking to avoid the echo chamber effect. Some of us are taking turns carrying that heavy load on broad shoulders.

In other words: get the fuck out of here with your nonsense about sour pusses.  Tongue Tongue

Perhaps you have a point?  perhaps?

I am not sure if I would describe some of those perspectives as "critical thinking" but if that is what some of you seemingly bear wanna-bes are attempting to achieve, then fair enough, fair enough.

Actually, I doubt that even amongst the more bullish perspectives we are going to get agreement (so usually echochamber effect does not happen in the real world).  I specifically recall in late 2015, my views of the possible upsurge of BTC prices were becoming more and more conservative compared to several of the then bullish colleague WO observers after getting my portfolio and my psychology beaten up for nearly two years, so surely I can appreciate both the validity of alternative perspectives, and even various theories about why the price is more likely to go in one direction or another and for how far and for how long.
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September 24, 2018, 07:35:43 AM

Still, this rally isn’t broken yet.

The failure to break past $6610 on that break downwards indicates to me that the bulls are in control.  

I am changing my position and flipping to short term bullish.
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September 24, 2018, 07:48:40 AM

Postscript Note:  

Below, I do respond to two of your posts, Majormax.   Your first post pissed me off, somewhat, and maybe that can be gleaned from my response; however, I agreed to a lot of what you are saying (like a kind of clarification post) in the second one.  Go figure?    Wink


6920 then 5200 then 6500 then capitulation around 3K in january 2019


Just about possible, but timeframe looks wrong for that. IF we are going to $3k (hopefully not) , then it will take longer. The market may be too mature for that type of volatility.



I doubt that BTC's supposed "maturity" would be an appropriate explanation for why it would not bounce so far down to $3k so quickly.  We should realize that both BTC is hardly mature, and BTC's price can be pushed with a relatively low quantity of capital.

It seems to me that $3k is just becoming less and less possible based on the difficulties that are being had to get BTC's price below $6k.  After a while the bounce back down to $3k becomes more and more unreasonable as a prediction.


A stall in the 5k to 7k range for another 6 months, then a slow roller-coaster climb to 12k in 2020 is perhaps more realistic. 100% ROI in 15 months is pretty good.


Surely that framework of a 100% return in 15 months is not unreasonable for bitcoin, and even given our current price situation.

Ultimately, with the numbers of large alts now becoming more globally viable, it is worth considering the possiblilty that BTC has seen its ATH already.



Now you are getting into extreme scenarios and presenting them as if they are reasonable.  What kind of odds do you give that BTC will never reach $20k, again?  Pretty low, no?  10% or less for sure, right?  Or are you assigning higher odds than that?  

Even some of the more optimistic predictions back in 2013  had 10k as the final target, and a steady decrease in volatility as that price approached.

Who gives a ratt's ass about the limitations of the perspectives back in 2013?  You know that the range of what is possible changes as the actual price performance changes, so BTC's price movement to $20k has made both the psychological perspective change, but also has shown a certain kind of strength in BTC fundamentals  both in terms of security and in terms of the market's willing to go to those kinds of $20k prices (without the world ending).

You are being really overdramatic and overly bearish if you really believe that $20k is ending up as the top of the range for bitcoin.

And, get the fuck out of here with your suggestion that some of the alt coins could take away BTC's price performance potential because they might be better in some ways.   As I type, there is still NOT one coin that is even close to bitcoin in terms of its soundness of money including the seven network effects referred to by Trace Mayer.

I will grant that if another coin comes a long that is better than bitcoin, then the money from bitcoin will likely flow into that better project (including my own money), but that better than bitcoin possibility does not negate that value is most likely to gravitate towards the most sound of the moneys - which currently remains bitcoin.

Do you know of some better sound money than bitcoin?  I will also grant you that it could take 50 years or more for a real and meaningful gravitation towards bitcoin becomes irreversible, but the long time line still does not take away from the fact that bitcoin remains the ONLY real game in town.. and even if the next ATH is delayed another several years, proposing that ATH is NEVER going to happen again amounts to pie in the sky thinking and very reminiscent of 2015/2016 talk in regards to whether the then ATH of $1,163 would ever be breached again (which such 2015/2016 talk of $1,163 never being breached again seems silly, now, but it was very serious talk at that time).


I am neither a bear nor a bull but wish to arrive at a realistic likelihood of various outcomes. ....

There are 3 main ways to view the future.

1.  BTC will aways be the leading digital money, increase dominance, and large returns are still possible.

2. Technical failure or crippling of some sort (low probabilty, but still possible)

3. Another crypocurrecy ascends to dominance.


I would put odds of perhaps 10% on #2, and 45% on each of #1 and 3.


Price targets for 2021 for :

#1  30k

#2   sub-1k

#3   8k


Conclusion... good odds of positive ROI from current level.

I am not sure whether I should have read ahead before I made my earlier (more pissed off responsive post), and these are very decent points and probability assignments, Majormax... except the I am neither a bull or a bear... comes off as too detached.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy    Tongue
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September 24, 2018, 08:40:00 AM

Found this on Twitter
Not as simple as it looks alike
Your bets





1k  Grin
2k

Added: +2k in fiat but in BTC you would be -1k because if you had held your would BTC would be worth +3k from initial purchase. Cheesy

So the answer is... -1K in fiat terms relative. Oww my Brain hurts.

I think if he originally had $8k, his profit would be 2k
But if he had only $6k, his profit would be 1k
 
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September 24, 2018, 08:45:17 AM



I would put odds of perhaps 10% on #2, and 45% on each of #1 and 3.

...

I am not sure whether I should have read ahead before I made my earlier (more pissed off responsive post), and these are very decent points and probability assignments, Majormax... except the I am neither a bull or a bear... comes off as too detached.  

Thanks for the detailed responses !

So we agree on the 10% probabilty (without collusion) !  

It is axiomatic that forecasting price movements is difficult, and its tempting to just give up on the calculations and guess, or say 'nobody knows'.  However, we have to have a stab at it somehow.

We all have our own methods of forecasting. Many posters seem to me to quote some random number for future price, without any indication of how they came up with it. Some post charts, some use a form of (very valid) psycho analysis (JJG being one of the best exponents of that !) delving into the biases and the misconceptions of others. Akin to the Contrarian approach, which has a good track record.

I have had a career and made a living in trading. My stance is this :

Every future price outcome has a probability of some sort.... maybe some sort of bell curve. The regularity of a simple bell curve denies all forecasts. Without a real edge, large numbers of trades can only break-even ,  the market-makers/brokers spread becomes the aggregate loss. It becomes simply a market-makers tool for , say, derivatives pricing.

 If you can break the curve down into groups/blocks, and analyze each one individually from some other, different perspective, you may be able to diminish or enhance the likelihood of one part, which then gives a meaningful edge of sorts.

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September 24, 2018, 08:50:06 AM

Found this on Twitter
Not as simple as it looks alike
Your bets





1k  Grin
2k

Added: +2k in fiat but in BTC you would be -1k because if you had held your would BTC would be worth +3k from initial purchase. Cheesy

So the answer is... -1K in fiat terms relative. Oww my Brain hurts.

I think if he originally had $8k, his profit would be 2k
But if he had only $6k, his profit would be 1k
 

Or does it say you brought 1$ BTC @    etc.

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September 24, 2018, 09:10:04 AM

FFS guys, do you even trade?

The guy executes two full trades (buy+sell) winning $1000 on each one, so $2K total. What is confusing about this? Why the need to overthink it?
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September 24, 2018, 09:16:19 AM
Last edit: September 24, 2018, 09:35:24 AM by vroom

Found this on Twitter
Not as simple as it looks alike
Your bets





(1/6000*7000)+(1/8000*9000) = $2.29166666667    

edit: this 1 $BTC is misleading.

buy 0.00016666666 bitcoin for $1 at $6000
sell 0.00016666666 bitcoin for $1.16666662 at $7000
buy 0.000125 bitcoin for $1 at $8000
sell 0.000125 bitcoin for 1.125 at $9000

sum: 1.125 + 1.16666662 = 2.29166666667
profit: 2.29166666667 - 2 = 0.29166662

edit2: still wrong I think. here is another try:

buy 0.00016666666 bitcoin for $1 at $6000
sell 0.00014285714 bitcoin for $1 at $7000
buy 0.000125 bitcoin for $1 at $8000
sell 0.00011111111 bitcoin for $1 at $9000

$0 and 0.00003769841 BTC is my final answer. I give up too Smiley
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September 24, 2018, 09:16:20 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

Bitmain and Bitfury are most likely to deploy many of their new ASICs on their own farms, and I believe their cost to produce is way less than the price they give to the public. I suspect that most large mining farms in China will be able to recoup their equipment cost in a few months, if that long.

Hmmm. And here I thought that the WO consensus was that Bitmain was circling the drain, and were destined to kill BCH in the process. Guess that must have been a premature call.

BCH is a dead zombie coin, only you haven't realized it yet.  Roll Eyes

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September 24, 2018, 09:17:46 AM

Found this on Twitter
Not as simple as it looks alike
Your bets





(1/6000*7000)+(1/8000*9000) = $2.29166666667


I give up  Cry
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September 24, 2018, 09:23:31 AM

Found this on Twitter
Not as simple as it looks alike
Your bets





this 1 $BTC is misleading.

(1/6000*7000)+(1/8000*9000) = $2.29166666667


It doesn't matter if $BTC is a typo, he means 1 BTC, or he means 1 BCASH, or 1 ASS.... he:

1- Buy 1 of whatever for $6000, and afterwards sells it for $7000. Profit = $1000
2- Buy 1 of whatever for $8000, and afterwards sells it for $9000. Profit = $1000

Total money made: $2K.... Or, just in case the "," is eur notation: $2,000

Oh, fuck, I said I gave up, I can't even stand by my word now Sad
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September 24, 2018, 09:24:20 AM

this 1 $BTC is misleading.

Correct. There is no such thing as "1 $BTC", so the question is ambiguous and there is no "right" answer.
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September 24, 2018, 09:27:55 AM


untitled 6 lyrics
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September 24, 2018, 09:33:20 AM

Still, this rally isn’t broken yet.

The failure to break past $6610 on that break downwards indicates to me that the bulls are in control.  

I am changing my position and flipping to short term bullish.

looking forward for your middle and long term bullish charts Grin

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September 24, 2018, 09:37:35 AM

Still, this rally isn’t broken yet.

The failure to break past $6610 on that break downwards indicates to me that the bulls are in control.  

I am changing my position and flipping to short term bullish.

I got stopped out about 3 minutes after posting this.  Bitcoin is one hell of a ride !
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