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Question: Closing BTC Price June 17:
$0 - 4 (3%)
<$6,500 - 7 (5.3%)
$6,500-$6,750 - 1 (0.8%)
$6,751-$7,000 - 2 (1.5%)
$7,001-$7,250 - 3 (2.3%)
$7,251-$7,500 - 6 (4.5%)
$7,501-$7,750 - 4 (3%)
$7,751-$8,000 - 12 (9.1%)
$8,001-$8,250 - 13 (9.8%)
$8,251-$8,500 - 7 (5.3%)
$8,501-$8,750 - 6 (4.5%)
$8,751-$9,000 - 11 (8.3%)
$9,001,$9,250 - 13 (9.8%)
$9,251-$9,500 - 17 (12.9%)
>$9,500 - 17 (12.9%)
$20,000 - 9 (6.8%)
Total Voters: 132

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21228859 times)
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JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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October 06, 2018, 12:03:13 AM

[edited out]

That's exactly what worries me. This time no one really think Bitcoin could simply vanish. Everybody is expecting a surge any moment in time or, at least, is sure that Bitcoin will hit new ATHs in the next few years. In 2014 most people just didn't know if it was all over. That maybe Bitcoin was really dying for good. Huge uncertainty to say the least.

Yes.  A certain quantity of resolutions in the minds of folks to recognize that there is more to bitcoin than what was originally perceived by a vast majority of folks, even though some of that lack of confidence still exists, it is not anywhere near the levels that it was a few years ago... and hence the price increase of a bit more than 20x (but that doesn't really say whether a 20x plus price increase is a good current valuation).


This time there is so much confidence.... it's not a matter of IF anymore, just WHEN.... and that difference is somewhat scary.

How are the "weak hands" going to capitulate with all this optimism? Can the price keep rising without a real capitulation? Well, maybe, but again that would be a new scenario unlike past Bitcoin history.

Your framing of the situation, which largely seems accurate, and your subsequent questions in this part seems to establish a recognition that there remains considerable tension in the proposed thesis that the BTC "blow off top" has already occurred, and if the "blow off top" has not yet occurred, then the lesser resistance remains as UP rather than as DOWN... and in the meantime, the BTC price is floating around in a kind of consolidation in order to attempt to figure out which direction has the least resistance... test, test, test...  

The whales might have some ideas about what they are going to do and some ideas about probability that they are going to be successful, but likely even they have difficulties knowing for sure until they try it out and see how much "give" there is in the price direction that they are attempting to push.


Anyway, even if the price just stagnates around this level for a few more months could probably grind the nerves of many of those weak hands in a sort of slow-mo capitulation.

If the BTC price continues to "stagnate" or consolidate in this area, it can cause either phenomena - bearish sentiments or bullish sentiments... So "stagnating" does not really provide a convincing story for either direction... even though some FUD (or FOMO) spreaders would like to frame it as if it favors their preferred price direction.

The only thing I am sure is that we needed this correction.

That's crazy talk.

Yes, in retrospect, we know that the last run from $6k to $19,666 ran out of steam, but there is really no way of knowing how much "we needed" this correction, except to observe that once such correction happened, it became a part of the history (or the current dynamics, since we are still within the correction and can't really have enough information about what to call it because we don't know for sure where it is going, except to have some theories about which scenarios (in the next legs) seem more probable from each  of our personal perspectives (which vary from person to person, too, and some persons are more genuine in their sharing of their actual perspective(s) rather than pushing some half-baked points.

Seems that one of the good things about this particular thread is that we seem to have a lot of decent member posters who are really attempting to grapple and to push their genuine ideas about bitcoin and bitcoin price dynamics, in spite of differences of opinion that come up from time to time and sometimes come out strenuously.... ... you fuckers!!!!!    Wink


The thing I am not so sure is if we need a deeper (or longer in time) one. Still too much hope... me included.

This concept of "what is needed" seems to attempt to apply too much absolutism about any prediction that you attempt to make.  

Even looking at "what is needed" after the fact can be a bit too much and problematic, like I already asserted above.

It surely does not hurt to have some hope, because it is quite possible that even though currently a majority of folks remain bearish, they could well end up being wrong while BTC price slowly trickles up and they continue to wait for a meaningful correction that does not come....


Since we have been largely bouncing around in a kind of consolidation since early February, with a few false break outs, subsequently discovered, fuck the laggers who have not prepared for BTC price movements in both directions, including UP from here and are betting too much on down when the odds are more reasonably in the range of 50/50 (at least thinking short to medium term) rather than any kind of semblance of downward's "necessity."
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1560946616
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October 06, 2018, 12:05:04 AM
Merited by bones261 (2)

I have been trading binary options for a long time and understand the technical analysis and the formation of various shapes. If you look at the bitcoin chart now, the price moves within the corridor. Like the man said above, now goes flat. This of course worries me, because it can be broken through the level of support. This is how the market works. But if you look at the chart in the expanded form, now a bullish flag or triangle is formed. This figure is called differently. And the pulse time is approaching. Either a strong impulse up or breaking through the bottom, with a rapid rollback up.


Naturally, I really want the price of bitcoin to grow up, but I am a realist, I see a chart and I understand that we will see new highs only next year. Winter this year (even in January) the price of bitcoin will be around 8-10 thousand dollars. This is purely my forecast for six months.
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October 06, 2018, 12:15:07 AM

But what does it all mean?  

A pattern of two constitutes some kind of a significant pattern these days?  A kind of binding (or compelling) authority?  

(oh we are going onto a 3rd similar pattern, which is showing similarities to the first two, I forgot, but we still are not through the third pattern yet, right?)
42? Wink It's just an observation, nothing more or less. The observer decides if the observed brought any meaningfull information to his eyes and may use them to make decisions.

What I see is the following pattern: uptrend1 - halfing1 - uptrend1 - downtrend1 - downtrend1 - uptrend2 - halfing2 - uptrend2 - downtrend2/sidewayish

My conclusion is (more or less), uptrends around a halfing make sense (supply and demand). As long as the 'fundamentals' don't change, there should be a new uptrend, no later then the next halfing.

Can we go lower until then? Sure. Can we go just sideways? Yes (IMHO this would simply indicate a 'stronger' sentiment then we have had after the first halfing).

What does all this mean to me just right now? I will continue hodling and try to accumulate more with pocket fiat money in case we change into a clear(er) downtrend. If the next uptrend starts sooner, I'm fine.

I know, this sentiment is nothing new in here. Wink

Don't get me wrong.

I am considerably optimistic that the physical cutting of the supply of new bitcoin in half every four years causes upwards BTC price pressures, yet like you seem to suggest, it remains a bit clear about the exact timing, even though somehow cyclically, in that four year period, there ends up being constriction in the new supply of bitcoin (inflation rate). 

I recall, also, a lot of the bullshit discussion points around the time of the last halvening that miners were going to become less incentivized to mine bitcoins because of the halvening of the reward - which made little to no sense to me. 

I also recall some posters here, who were suggesting that the halvening itself might be a bit bearish in the actual time of the halvening, but several months down the road, we were going to find a kind of reality of fewer new coins available which caused significant upwards BTC price pressures that likely contributed to inabilities for bear whales to keep the BTC price down... a kind of coiling effect.. that is sometimes difficult to appreciate while you are within it.
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October 06, 2018, 01:01:00 AM


Let's be clear as to people's motivations.  DonAlt runs paid groups for noobs.  He doesn't make any money in a bear market.  

What!?? What kind of comment is that?

Could you indicate which payment group is that?


Since I follow DonAlt I have never seen any publicity to that group.
On the other hand, it is one of the most respected traders in CT, which means that it has probably gained much more than the average trader in this bear market. It provides very useful and quality information and has a very good disposition to answer comments about trade questions.
Now he has even created a Telegram group that is free in which he updates his thoughts and market analysis.


If you do not provide evidence about that payment group, you are simply spreading your misinformed shit.
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October 06, 2018, 01:28:18 AM

don't write Bitcoin off just yet! 

I've already started to move my vast wealth over to effeminate moustaches and goose-boots. What did I miss?

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October 06, 2018, 02:05:46 AM

https://twitter.com/misir_mahmudov/status/1048282030486802435
Quote
4/ Fiat currencies, in their current incarnation, have been around for only 47 years. They are a temporary monopolist perversion enabled by the centralizing forces of the Industrial Age.
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It's over 9000!


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October 06, 2018, 02:23:24 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1), bitserve (1), micgoossens (1)

don't write Bitcoin off just yet! 

I've already started to move my vast wealth over to effeminate moustaches and goose-boots. What did I miss?



  You missed the weekend pump!  Here's a recap:


bitserve
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HODL.


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October 06, 2018, 02:45:18 AM

^^^ In retrospect... That's a great graphical representation of how I lived the $19K pump and subsequent correction. Still feeling it somehow.

P.S.: And I am sure I am not alone.
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October 06, 2018, 02:48:37 AM

^^^ In retrospect... That's a great graphical representation of how I lived the $19K pump and subsequent correction. Still feeling it somehow.

  I think many of us are feeling the same way Wink
JayJuanGee
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October 06, 2018, 03:26:40 AM
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^^^ In retrospect... That's a great graphical representation of how I lived the $19K pump and subsequent correction. Still feeling it somehow.

  I think many of us are feeling the same way Wink

It is so strange because I don't know how come I am feeling so good?  

Of course, $19,666 was feeling good, too, but overall, currently floating in a 9x -ish price appreciation / equity does not feel like a bad thing.

When I got into bitcoin in late 2013, and going from $1,163 down to a few spikes below $200 did not feel too good.. and then averaging a cost per BTC in the lower $500s while BTC prices floated largely in the mid-$200s for most of 2015 did not really feel too good.  

Actually it felt worse at the very beginning of 2015, because I had kind of thought that upper $300s was going to be the then price bottom.. yet we know what happened... .. approaching 9 months, and even nearly three years from the top to the bottom and then back to getting out of the hole.. but the process of getting out of the hole showed me that little by little my equity was coming back.

Currently, those feeling the worst would have bought in about the past 12 months or so?  a bit confusing, but there could have been strategies to attempt to lower buy price, but still be in the red right now, correct?  Still about a year of turmoil, so far, and approaching 9 months in this particular bouncing down to $6k, and fake out price rises..

Yet, still with a BTC accumulation strategy, there should be a way to not feel too badly, yet.. correct?  

We can keep this "feeling bad" conversation open to see how the situation plays out and to see if there are ways that HODLers can hedge their BTC investment(s) in order to NOT feel so bad with the passage of time, and Rosewater, you are just exaggerating your feeling badness, right?
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October 06, 2018, 03:58:45 AM

^^^ In retrospect... That's a great graphical representation of how I lived the $19K pump and subsequent correction. Still feeling it somehow.

  I think many of us are feeling the same way Wink

It is so strange because I don't know how come I am feeling so good?  

Of course, $19,666 was feeling good, too, but overall, currently floating in a 9x -ish price appreciation / equity does not feel like a bad thing.

When I got into bitcoin in late 2013, and going from $1,163 down to a few spikes below $200 did not feel too good.. and then averaging a cost per BTC in the lower $500s while BTC prices floated largely in the mid-$200s for most of 2015 did not really feel too good.  

Actually it felt worse at the very beginning of 2015, because I had kind of thought that upper $300s was going to be the then price bottom.. yet we know what happened... .. approaching 9 months, and even nearly three years from the top to the bottom and then back to getting out of the hole.. but the process of getting out of the hole showed me that little by little my equity was coming back.

Currently, those feeling the worst would have bought in about the past 12 months or so?  a bit confusing, but there could have been strategies to attempt to lower buy price, but still be in the red right now, correct?  Still about a year of turmoil, so far, and approaching 9 months in this particular bouncing down to $6k, and fake out price rises..

Yet, still with a BTC accumulation strategy, there should be a way to not feel too badly, yet.. correct?  

We can keep this "feeling bad" conversation open to see how the situation plays out and to see if there are ways that HODLers can hedge their BTC investment(s) in order to NOT feel so bad with the passage of time, and Rosewater, you are just exaggerating your feeling badness, right?

 I've been trying for some time now to no avail to figure a way to describe my feeling about the situation without giving away too much personal information.  Still not there!
Maybe I'll have an epiphany one of these days Wink

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The 🧢 WO gang power, help the price of BTC


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October 06, 2018, 04:37:05 AM



infofront
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October 06, 2018, 05:53:45 AM

don't write Bitcoin off just yet! 

I've already started to move my vast wealth over to effeminate moustaches and goose-boots. What did I miss?


You missed what we all miss - the lost art of letter writing. And Vaudeville.
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October 06, 2018, 06:15:20 AM


Good comedy screwed up with alt coin pumping.  Shame on you, elrippos friend!!!!!    Angry Angry Angry

Dear JayJuanGee, go fcuk yourself  Cheesy Grin

Shame on you, elrippos friend.

Failure and refusal to acknowledge, admit or feel bad about your off-topic shit coin pumping behavior. 



Dear JayJuanGee, you honestly believe there is no alternative to BTC and calling me? WOW!

What the fuck you talking about?  Is monero pumping a subject of this thread?

You just made it a subject  Grin

With your leadership, I feel like I am in good hands.




 Thanks elrippos friend!!!!!!!!!   Wink

You are welcome  Wink
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October 06, 2018, 06:24:07 AM

Hmm,

So were is the Q4 pump?  Huh

In my opinion it should shart any minute now!
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October 06, 2018, 06:30:28 AM

Code:
As a valued Bittrex customer, we wanted to inform you that on November 5, 2018, we are retiring wallets that do not have markets, including Bitshares (BTS), Bitcoin Gold (BTG), and Bitcoin Private (BTCP).

 Grin Grin Grin
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October 06, 2018, 06:55:56 AM

don't write Bitcoin off just yet! 

I've already started to move my vast wealth over to effeminate moustaches and goose-boots. What did I miss?



  You missed the weekend pump!  Here's a recap:



Haha woke up early for “gritt work out” , but first checked out the price and very quick overlook in here.... everything still the same price just freezed all night i guess, so i can continue watching the weekend pump while i’m awake..... Roll Eyes
*made Nice this vid Grin  , i took HIM down good Grin
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October 06, 2018, 07:35:37 AM

don't write Bitcoin off just yet! 

I've already started to move my vast wealth over to effeminate moustaches and goose-boots. What did I miss?



Not much, Bitcoin is still here almost exactly where it was, going sideways.  Seems to have put off most Nazis, probably awkward to goose-step in that direction.  How are the right wing investments going - are you determined to HODL the moustaches?  Looks a little 'niche' to me, not much of a use case IMHO.
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October 06, 2018, 07:36:43 AM

So were is the Q4 pump?  Huh
In my opinion it should shart any minute now!

I'm beginning to think we end the year right around $6,666  Undecided
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October 06, 2018, 07:46:13 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

^
Much better than 666
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