Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[macsga]

I grabbed some popcorn for the weekend. You know... just in case of a possible

CCMF!!!!!!1

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[Vigil]

I don't see a drop to $500 or below all that extremely bearish. The equivalent to the bulls level of hysteria when the price starts to rise for the "bears" would be: "its going to zero". A call between $300-$500 seems realistic to me as we just went from $100 to $1000 in a couple months. Why should bitcoin even be valued at $1000 or $900? Has that much changed in that time-frame? Not really, just a lot of speculators and some long-term legit buyers entered the market.

[Sitarow]

Difficulty ATH!!! More than 2 billion!  

Here is the expected BTC return for a variety of hardware during this present difficulty.

Utilizing something like that was is an average cost in USD to mine 1 BTC?

Hardware cost is not factored in as most have already paid off their hardware with previously mined BTC.

Edit: After considering the recent news with retailers accepting BTC as payment, and larger groups arrogantly attempting to hold a % of the mining income. BTC is seriously undervalued.

You could go as far as saying that $800 today is $8 Last 2012.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fonzie]

I don't see a drop to $500 or below all that extremely bearish. The equivalent to the bulls level of hysteria when the price starts to rise for the "bears" would be: "its going to zero". A call between $300-$500 seems realistic to me as we just went from $100 to $1000 in a couple months. Why should bitcoin even be valued at $1000 or $900? Has that much changed in that time-frame? Not really, just a lot of speculators and some long-term legit buyers entered the market.

+1

[shmadz]

Difficulty ATH!!! More than 2 billion!  

Here is the expected BTC return for a variety of hardware during this present difficulty.

Utilizing something like that was is an average cost in USD to mine 1 BTC?

Hardware cost is not factored in as most have already paid off their hardware with previously mined BTC.

Edit: After considering the recent news with retailers accepting BTC as payment, and larger groups arrogantly attempting to hold a % of the mining income. BTC is seriously undervalued.

You could go as far as saying that $800 today is $8 Last 2012.

To address that bolded part: I think you are bang on. I don't think there are many new miners entering the market. The ones who are keeping up have likely realized some very large profit from previous mining. It is hard to quantify the price of a miner, since it is the profits from the previous miners that pay for the new ones. *(may all your miners be profitable)*

To address the edit, specifically the part about larger groups trying to maintain their %: I am not a large group. I mine in a small apartment (electricity is included in the rent). Whenever my mining income drops to around 1 BTC/week I feel uncontrollably compelled to increase my hashrate. I am already down to about .3 per day. If Neptune does not ship *soon* then I fear I might go absolutely bonkers. I've become accustomed to steady BTC income, and if that gravy train stops I'm not sure what I might do?

[mellowyellow]

nvm, I read it wrong.

[JCviggen]

That BTC mining chart for ASICs is making me smile. I mined 0.17 BTC yesterday via altcoins with "only" 12 GPUs 

By comparison the SHA hashing armsrace has developed into a massive shooting one's foot party.

[mellowyellow]

Am I reading this wrong or is it far better to buy rigs in USD?

Its always better to buy rigs in USD, the question I am kinda asking is it actually better to buy a rig in USD (and mine for a year) or just the coins now.  Assuming say $2,500 on an average across the board setup.

I'm shopping for a rig now, I figure that I can use it for other coins if things go badly with btc, I would love to be mining doge right now - I'm tempted by the fact you can swap coins easily as the market dictates.

[mellowyellow]

I'm shopping for a rig now, I figure that I can use it for other coins if things go badly with btc, I would love to be mining doge right now - I'm tempted by the fact you can swap coins easily as the market dictates.

But how long until guys with BTC stop trying to make more BTC by manipulating the altcoin markets, only alts that are not prone to this are at BTC-e (with fiat coming into it).  I dont see how Doge coin will be tied to BTC like LTC is now.

Prob not that long, but the lifespan of my rig would be limited too, I don't see the manipulation stopping any time soon.

[JCviggen]

I'm shopping for a rig now, I figure that I can use it for other coins if things go badly with btc, I would love to be mining doge right now - I'm tempted by the fact you can swap coins easily as the market dictates.

But how long until guys with BTC stop trying to make more BTC by manipulating the altcoin markets, only alts that are not prone to this are at BTC-e (with fiat coming into it).  I dont see how Doge coin will be tied to BTC like LTC is now.

It's been done ever since altcoins have existed, why stop now? They won't stop unless it stops working. If anything, it's making more money now than ever so...
Pumps and dumps work because suspension of disbelief is still very strong in crypto markets. People want to believe the coins they hold will "go to the moon" and that includes BTC holders. The same human feature that can propel a bitcoin to 1K or 10K USD is what makes altcoins worth some BTC.

[mellowyellow]

http://rt.com/business/bitcoin-shiller-bubble-davos-127/

Make hay while the sun shines guys.

[Sitarow]

That BTC mining chart for ASICs is making me smile. I mined 0.17 BTC yesterday via altcoins with "only" 12 GPUs  

By comparison the SHA hashing armsrace has developed into a massive shooting one's foot party.

But you do realize you are supporting an ALTcoin that in a few months will be unsustainable.

It is what I like to call FOTM coin.

Edited for clarity.

[adamstgBit]

[JCviggen]

But you do realize you are supporting a coin that in a few months will be unsustainable.

It is what I like to call FOTM coin.

I have no clue which coins I'm actually mining, I am interested in getting BTC. People with BTC seem interested to give it to me in exchange for whatever I'm mining. The BTC network can do without me, 2 petahash? It just makes investing in SHA ASIC miners look pretty unattractive is what I'm saying.

[tarmi]

I bet he is the one shorting on btc-e and stamp.

[Walsoraj]

http://rt.com/business/bitcoin-shiller-bubble-davos-127/

Make hay while the sun shines guys.

Mainstream economists are oblivious to how difficult it is to get fiat out of Gox. Until that becomes easier, the bubble isn't popping.

[Bios Optimus]

http://rt.com/business/bitcoin-shiller-bubble-davos-127/

Make hay while the sun shines guys.

"Robert Shiller, Yale Professor of Economics, and two other professors from the University of Chicago - Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen - won the Nobel Prize in 2013 for their research into market prices and asset bubbles."

If I were a "back surgeon" then A LOT of people with back problems would need surgery.  If you are looking FOR a bubble it LOOKS like a bubble but the problem is we don"t know what Bitcoin will do because it is new and there really isn't anything to compare it to.



    
    
    
    
    


  

[Sitarow]

But you do realize you are supporting a coin that in a few months will be unsustainable.

It is what I like to call FOTM coin.

I have no clue which coins I'm actually mining, I am interested in getting BTC. People with BTC seem interested to give it to me in exchange for whatever I'm mining. The BTC network can do without me, 2 petahash? It just makes investing in SHA ASIC miners look pretty unattractive is what I'm saying.

Hopefully the market will soon find its synergy and normalize with respects the ability to handle "new" forms of altcoins.

Bitcoin and with some respects Litecoin seem to have the best balance between transactions/subsidy reward/blockchain file size that has been keeping pace with technology development road map.

Many other altcoins fail to understand the importance of maintaining a close relationship to this rule.

That is why I feel that many "new" altcoins are unsustainable. However newbie's entering the marketscape do not understand this yet.

My only recommendation to them would be, if you enjoy mining, then enter the landscape 50/50 50% coin and 50% hardware. That way you can take advantage of the historical rule that Buying and holding bitcoin has been the best strategy to date.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation