Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kenzawak]

1 year ago Ver, Wu and Craig were dumping all their Bitcoins for bcash buying at 900$ to 3000$. Now all their money are gone forever! bcash is dead and these crooks are poor again! There is God! I have only one more request to God: Let Bitcoin rise to new ATH's while these crooks are agonizing with losses as heavy as this forever! 

The picture on the left isn't Craig, it's Simon Cowell. He's setting up another boy band.

Backstreet Oldboys

Not sure the one on the right is him either... 

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[Fatman3001]

1 year ago Ver, Wu and Craig were dumping all their Bitcoins for bcash buying at 900$ to 3000$. Now all their money are gone forever! bcash is dead and these crooks are poor again! There is God! I have only one more request to God: Let Bitcoin rise to new ATH's while these crooks are agonizing with losses as heavy as this forever!  

The picture on the left isn't Craig, it's Simon Cowell. He's setting up another boy band.

Backstreet Oldboys

Not sure the one on the right is him either...  

idk. Pictures from the future tend to be a bit grainy

Edit: Kinda looks like John McAfee on a Monday

[jbreher]

Be sure to check out the new bcash SV website http://bcashsv.com

Yeah... about that...

does not seem genuine.

[JayJuanGee]

SV Cash catching up fast to ABC Cash

I think this highlights a kind of potentially misleading point about what is the real bcash.

I believe that a similar thing happened in the bitcoin fork, when there were periods of time that bcash had the longer chain as compared with bitcoin, and all that bullshit, but in the end, the longer chain and even the greatest hashpower did not matter. 

What seems to matter most remains which fork the community recognizes as bcash - and likely that is going to be the ABC version, even if hypothetically SV were to beat the shit out of ABC for the next month or two, in terms of hashing power.  If the community largely recognizes ABC as the true bcash, then that is going to be the most powerful claim about what is the real bcash - and therefore price will follow what the community wants - not who has the most hashpower, even though the hashpower can provide a decent amount of drama - and even misleading about what is the most important fork.

In then end, the vast majority of the members participating in this thread give nearly no ratt's ass about any of these bcash matters, except for the fact that most of us seem to recognize that a certain amount of the uncertainty around the ongoing bcash shenanigans seem to be continuing to contribute to a certain amount of uncertainty overall, including bitcoin, and seemingly like a kind of opportunistic time to take advantage of and create downward BTC price momentum that is partly just allowed because of hesitation of peeps to buy BTC in times like this.. which allows for continued downward BTC price pressures.

Surely, it would be nice if the downward price pressures would resolve themselves in a week or less and we could just bounce back up to $6,500 and thereafter above that, but even I will concede that I currently perceive the odds for getting above $6,500 and even staying above $6,500 to be a bit less than 50%.. maybe even in the 35% arena... OMG.. hate to say the bearish thing.. but anyhow, there still could be bullish price action, especially if a lot of shorts get created, which could cause some motivation to reck those.. Always nice to see a decent amount of shorts "surprisingly" reckt.. whenever possible.

[jbreher]

if, if, if

[JayJuanGee]

if, if, if

What you all grumpy about bbear?  

Like I said earlier, I would like to blame you for all of this, but even though, from time to time, I don't mind being a bit unreasonable, I don't want to come off as too xtreme in my unreasonable.

[Hexah]

Getting 502 error on TV by now, guess it will be a longer hour to be back.  

edit: it's good it back now

[fluidjax]

SV Cash catching up fast to ABC Cash

Catching up, or even overtaking the block count means nothing, as the difficulties between chains are now different, the only figure that matters is the total proof of work at the tip of each chain.

https://forkmonitor.info/nodes/bch
You can see & monitor that here under 'Accumulated log2(PoW)':


https://cash.coin.dance/blocks/hashrate
But probably a better way to view  how far ABC are ahead is represented by the area between the orange & red lines on this graph. SV need to exceed the Hash power of ABC for a sustained time before they have the longest chain (ie there is new area created with red above orange, that is bigger than red below orange area) , and even then, they will not re-org ABC because of the checkpoints inserting into the code,  that manually select which fork the ABC Node software will follow. Craig's dreams that there will only be one chain will remain a dream.


https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/81115/if-someone-wanted-to-pretend-to-be-satoshi-by-posting-a-fake-signature-to-defrau
The latest message signature from Craig Wright via his 'Satoshi' twitter account is debunked by Greg Maxwell here. TLDR: A crypto trick that needs careful analysis by a crypto expert to spot,  very similar to the one a few years back that was using a signature pulled out of the block chain.

[realr0ach]

Before people go off trying to deify Satoshi, they need to remember (or be informed) that Gavin himself was correcting Satoshi's coding mistakes. That was before even sharper devs came into the project.

We are all following an open source project with principles and with 100+ genius core devs.

If they were "geniuses", they would be able to figure out it's 100% impossible to create a decentralized digital currency.  Distributed - yes, decentralized - no.  It does take a lot of time, research, and effort to come to this conclusion, but you don't have to be anywhere close to a genius to figure it out.  It would require unprofitable PoW and everyone processing their own transactions just like email PoW to work, but unprofitable PoW is a completely unworkable system that requires artificial convergence, so you're back to square one of it being impossible.

Many of the people working on bitcoin have the standard programmer god complex make believing any problem can be coded around or solved with some rickity Luke Jr hack.  The only two semi-vocal people around bitcoin that I know of who have even hinted that creating a decentralized digital currency might be impossible, or that bitcoin itself might be a failure, are Peter Todd and Gmaxwell.  

Most of the people crawling around in this space that people think are geniuses are just plain old compartmentalized retard savants that are good at doing one specific thing, or small set of tasks.  This is not an insult or anything, as most humans are this way due to humans using specialization of labor, but they're not much different than some guy that knows how to do woodworking or whatever well.  It's just some small subset of computers instead.  People that have trained their entire lives to use Lisp or Python are no more geniuses than some guy who has trained his whole life to be a woodworker.

[El duderino_]

would be nice to freeze me in on my AGE as i am now and just release me @2021-ish at my AGE of now and just see where i'm standing .....
wouldn't that be a nice move

Would be best to not grow old at all.

Damn this universe and its tick-tockery.

Indeed.... i would offer many BTC’s for that .... but not all need to HODL as well

No chance. We’re at the bottom now. I’m buying right now and will keep buying all the way back to $6,500.

I wouldn't be too eager to buy. We'll probably need a new round of consolidation before the next bull run commences, and who knows what level that will occur at.
[/quote]


Why not to buy now....? If you buying 5.5k and avg down all the way to 3.5-ish ...... that would all be perfect buy’s not, if the bottom isn’t in yet Then nobody knows where it is, and i think BTC’ers could be happy with all the prices given from now on
Not?

[El duderino_]

[realr0ach]

What is this, Micgoossens poor investment advice 101?  

The first step in any type of investment is to quantify some type of fair value to see if you're getting a good deal or not.  For example, in silver I can quantify right off the top of my head that even within the govt's rigged system of price suppression that highly undervalues metals, that the average gold to silver ratio is 47:1, and there's over a 90% historical correlation with gold to US debt.  So the price of gold should be around $2500 even within their rigged system, and 2500/47 = $53 oz silver "fair price" within their suppressed, rigged system.

Of course, the GSR varies wildly and on the way to $53 it would create shortages, FOMO, etc, that would send GSR to 30:1 or lower and a price of $75 or more, so you have to factor that in too.  Then, since silver is the most price suppressed asset on the entire planet, if the ESF suppression scheme fails, or fails due to the dollar losing reserve status, imploding, or some other issue since dollar reserve paradigm is what currently suppresses silver, that upside is instead stupidly higher at somewhere between $200-$600 an ounce in current purchasing power.

Then you can factor in things like cost of production such as posted here:

https://srsroccoreport.com/majority-of-silver-miners-sustaining-cost-significantly-higher-than-market-price/

So, tell me, where exactly do you quantify ANYTHING about whether a bitcoin is "cheap", "expensive", or a "good deal"?  You can't.  The price floor of bitcoin is recursive based on it's own demand.  If there's no demand, miners shut off, and price floor goes lower.  Such a thing is impossible in real commodities.  Even if zero people are interested in buying lumber, silver, sheep, or whatever, it's cost of production generally remains the same.

Bitcoin is designed from the ground up to be a valueless pump and dump with no quantifiable fair value.  This is why there's a Satoshi quote that says something akin to, "the value is either going to be high or zero". Because something with no fair value can be manipulated to face-melting extremes as long as there's some type of greater fools around trying their hand at the game of hot potato seeing if they can pass it off to someone else before they get burned, but it's also possible you run out of greater fools or casino attendees and it goes to it's intrinsic value of zero again.

[Last of the V8s]

.... umm, there's going to be bad days, there's going to be dark days, but you gotta embrace it, because that pain is what makes you stronger.... success is not measured on the days the sun shines and your coins are mooning.....success is measured on the dark, stormy, cloudy days, and if you can't absorb failure, you're never gonna make it. Constantly I'll hear, you bought bitcoin on the top, LOL, you hold only shitcoins, you're gonna get REKT, LOL. It gets to you man, after a while. And people will say, oh, but it's easy money $$, just buy low and sell high. Well, the thing about that is, if it was that easy, everybody would be rich........

Thanks V8.

what have I gone and done now? i mean, you're welcome and all that, good speech you made and all that, but explain pls

[realr0ach]

what have I gone and done now? i mean, you're welcome and all that, good speech you made and all that, but explain pls

It sounded like he's been drinking a lot, or maybe he's just a fan of last of the version 8.0 scamcoins.

[Elwar]

Price is so low I have to watch the Bitfinex price instead of Bitstamp.

[Paashaas]

Lightning network growth has exploded 



https://1ml.com/

https://bitcoinvisuals.com/lightning

[realr0ach]

Price is so low I have to watch the Bitfinex price instead of Bitstamp.

Again, using my example above in the previous post, how exactly does one quantify if a bitcoin price is "high" or "low" if bitcoin price floor is recursive based on it's own demand?

[Last of the V8s]

At this stage we should prolly have a whip-round for the Mayor's liver transplant.

[yefi]

I wouldn't be too eager to buy. We'll probably need a new round of consolidation before the next bull run commences, and who knows what level that will occur at.

Why not to buy now....? If you buying 5.5k and avg down all the way to 3.5-ish ...... that would all be perfect buy’s not, if the bottom isn’t in yet Then nobody knows where it is, and i think BTC’ers could be happy with all the prices given from now on
Not?

If you're buying now, then you really should've been buying in the past at higher prices as part of a cost-averaging exercise.

If you're just buying now as a catch-the-knifer, then the entry point looks poorly chosen to me. A breakdown of major support means we're likely to face lowers lows or an ample window of consolidation where one's position can be reanalysed.

[realr0ach]

If you're just buying now as a catch-the-knifer, then the entry point looks poorly chosen to me. A breakdown of major support means we're likely to face lowers lows or an ample window of consolidation where one's position can be reanalysed.

Unless the $600 million in new tethers spontaneously printed controlled by a single entity is a $20 million shakeout followed by a $580 million pump, which is why I prefer none of you shoeshine boys sell so you have a bunch of coins to dump on the faces of the scammers that run Bitfinex if they decide to try it.  There's also the possibility that $600 million in new Tethers is used to short bitcoin to zero, but that's just the way it is.  There is no real bitcoin market and it's entirely Bitfinex fraud at this point.