I don't see how Bitcoin cash could have influenced such a huge dump. Not possible. This is just whales building on the fomo from the small dump. If we see a rise, it will be a flash spike to 6k or above. But until then, we keep falling, whales keep pushing. Just like they push everytime there was a "scary" news article about crypto. Just like when the asians threatened to end crypto. They will use these chances to keep pushing down as far as they can. The bounce back up will be much bigger.
I believe BCH was the main catalyst at least. But by no means the only factor.
1. We have all known we have to see some pretty bad blood in the street before this market cycle is over. This is
some of it. I just only wish this was the big one. It's not.
2. Many people in the media, and many sheep actually BELIEVE CSW is Satoshi, or "part of Satoshi". That level of uncertainty is powerful. When he starts proclaiming that BTC is doomed and he is going back to *his(lol)* old design with BSV then these "believers" will dance to his music, run for the hills, or just hedge. This equals selling pressure.
3. He has either fooled Calvin A. or they are colluding in deception. I believe it is the first. And I imagine Calvin has been selling on the exchanges at market. Bitcoin is thinly traded. It did not take much pressure to drop it. Meanwhile actual smart people are
buying OTC and they LOVE EVERY SECOND OF THIS. Don't tell me Bakkt and Fidelity are going into the next year with no war chest? No inventory? Not to mention the REAL whale speculators who are most certainly eating up coins off the radar like a buffet in Las Vegas.
4. The stock market. And all world financial markets. Need I say more? Shit... I will say more.
This is a sheep in wolves clothing. Even though the markets are bailing to cash, and Bitcoin has joined them, in the end BTC will get some of the cash that is pouring out of the Stock Market. ESPECIALLY with BTC on sale. There are some smart folks out there who are seeing now what we have been seeing for years.
5. ^^^ALL OF THE ABOVE^^^ is happening at the end of a GINOURMOUS descending triangle on the BTC charts at the very tip of a deciding point. Coincidence? I dunno... I'll leave the conspiracies to people more connected than me.
My conclusion and prediction:
- This is not the bottom.
- We are not terribly far from the bottom though... (10% - 30% more drop IMO)
- Sentiment is nasty, but still people in here, on twitter, and reddit are waving pom-poms and chanting "Capitulation!" Not a good sign.
I have no idea how this unwinds. But that won't stop me from speculating.
A. One very possible way is for it to drop so hard we really get some old crusty holders to sell... and then it jolts back up from pressure from some new whales who have been waiting exactly for that moment for a long time. Add to that the short squeeze, and then we may actually HAVE capitulated.
B. The other likely scenario is we go into a year long scooping trough. Kind of like the prolonged bottom of the 2014 cycle.
I give A/B chances at 65/35 for fundamental reasons. This is not 2014. A lot of smart rich people have figured out exactly what bitcoin is this time around.
(Dear Lord... I feel like I turned into JJG)
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