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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 36 (27.5%)
2020 - 54 (41.2%)
2021 - 31 (23.7%)
2022 - 5 (3.8%)
2023 - 1 (0.8%)
Never - 4 (3.1%)
Total Voters: 131

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21175602 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (24 posts by 13 users deleted.)
Last of the V8s
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November 30, 2018, 08:05:46 PM
#437361

https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-cboebzx-2018-040/srcboebzx2018040-4691015-176590.pdf
Meeting with Van Eck Securities Corporation, SolidX Management LLC, Patomak Global Partners, LLC, and Cboe BZX Exchange, Inc.
The discussion concerned Cboe BZX Exchange, Inc.ís proposed rule change to list and trade shares of the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust, as well as the attached presentation submitted to the Commission staff by SolidX Management LLC
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November 30, 2018, 08:11:42 PM
Merited by ssmc2 (2)
#437362

The bottom is not in.

This isnít about price, itís about time.  We havenít had enough time to digest the last bull market. 

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I canít give you a price target because itís not about price. 
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November 30, 2018, 08:13:31 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), jojo69 (1)
#437363

Well it's about time.
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November 30, 2018, 08:18:10 PM
#437364

The bottom is not in.

This isnít about price, itís about time.  We havenít had enough time to digest the last bull market. 

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I canít give you a price target because itís not about price. 

Do you still stand by your uber high price prediction of 280k per coin at the top of the next cycle?
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November 30, 2018, 08:28:11 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
#437365

The bottom is not in.

This isnít about price, itís about time.  We havenít had enough time to digest the last bull market.  

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I canít give you a price target because itís not about price.  

Now you are just producing FUD

/S



Do you still stand by your uber high price prediction of 280k per coin at the top of the next cycle?

Why is it so difficult to comprehend? It is possible to be a realist and see a trend to a lower price and also see the bigger picture of the next ATH!
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November 30, 2018, 08:32:38 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)
#437366

Just merited a quote instead of the original.

You guys look all the same with that hats.

 ?? These hats are more unique than a Bitcoin address.



I will wear mine when this signature campaign Iím in ends. I sort of want to wear it now & wave the pay from the campaign but Iíll wait until it ends Grin

LFC hat will be worn early New Year!

Will this hat fad last until the new year?  you could become a late adopter, perhaps?
What the fuck do you mean "fad"?
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November 30, 2018, 08:34:57 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)
#437367

What are you thinking LFC?  I recall that several days ago, you were a bit more hesitant about attempting to catch a falling knife - as many of us likely got a bit nervous about how fast the damned thing was falling and if there was going to be any bounce in the near terms.... and at least for now, it seems that we have a bit of a resting point and reconsideration of price direction.

I already bought some in the $3,500s, and $3,800s, and of course supra $4k, so probably my next buy would not be until about $3.2k... ... sometimes I will play around with my orders, and then if some sells execute, then I don't mind buying again, too, which I did have some sells in the lower $4k... so will be considering whether I need to adjust what I already have out there.  

Bottom is in?  50/50?  Hairy?  40/60?    Actually, I will admit that based on recent happenings, even I am coming around a bit to the possibility that the bottom might not be in, and maybe I am 47/53-ish.. at least, at the moment that I am typing this.

Interesting thing about bitcoin is that our predictions can change a bit on a daily or a 3 day basis or a weekly basis, depending on momentum and if whatever current consolidation range is getting pushed in one direction or another.   of course, news events too (which can reflect public sentiment)...  Maybe now, we have something like $3,800 to $4,350.. so maybe we shouldn't get too excited unless the edges of those break?

Personally I think the bottom is in Jay,

Sounds like you are in the 75/25 camp, or something like that.

I never feel like it is good for my psyche to have that much confidence, that is why I just (in the last post) put myself at about 47/53... maybe if we play around in these territories for a while, I might convert into a 53/47-ish kind of guy.. but I cannot say for sure... and also, when there is a lot of movement, confidence lowers about any kind of prediction, at least for me, and it can just take a bit of time to watch it play out and to attempt to get bearings back.


I think weíll trade in the $3,500 to $5,000 range for a while though.

Fair enough on that one.

I already have a nice stash of coins but you can never have enough. Itís a once in a lifetime opportunity so load up what you can afford to as & when you can.

Actually, for us HODLers and longer time-horizon thinkers (even though I would not really consider 2021 to be a really long time horizon), or whatever the fuck we might be called, there is a kind of getting a stake in the thing that goes  on in the early stages, but then maintenance is also going to include some ongoing accumulation because it is likely that we still have some discretion over ongoing cashflow that we have, and if we did not make some bad decisions and over invest and engage in some unnecessary panic losses (which also could just be part of the learning process about these kinds of highly volatile and new asset class markets)


I panicked a lot as we were dropping from 7k down to 3.5k (I shouldnít have, Iíve been in a worse situation in 2014 when at one point I was literally 80% down on my investment. Even now Iím over 9 x up on what Iíve invested).

Of course, I had seen some of your old posts and strategies, since you were kind of a highlighted special here in WO thread in recent times, and some of our strategies differed in the early days... yet I was pretty highly down too... I believe that my max amount of down was in the 65% territory... and during that time, I was trying to figure out ways to be prudent, and I also realized that every extra dollar that I put into bitcoin would bring my cost per BTC down by quite a lot, so there was a considerable incentive to buy more BTC - even while at that same time it was scary (and perhaps seemingly lacking of prudence) to invest more into something that you already had a lot invested into and was underwater.

I am probably in around 5x up territory currently, depending upon how matters are calculated.  It can become a bit complicated to calculate sometimes... but the point for both you and me remains very similar in that there were times of considerable negative value as compared to currently having decently sized equity and cushion in the who investment.  From the outset, I considered investing into bitcoin as a kind of novel investment, and I thought that if I can get it to perform equally or even in the ballpark of my traditional investments (which tend to average in about the 5% to 6% territory), then I am doing quite well... and think about it, 5x in five years, is quite well in a kind of 100% per year arena (with a decent amount of cushion).  I am not even calculating accurately because it's not like I put all of my money in on day 1, so when dollar cost averaging in, it can be a decently greater calculation obstacle to figure out overall average return - yet some people will make attempts to take snapshots, such as where they were at at the end of each calendar year,  and then attempt to average it out from that (even though those would be kind of weighted averages since the BTC balance would be different each snapshot, too).

Basically Iím calm & relaxed now after the initial shock of dropping so much, so fast from 7k or 8k to 3.5k.
Nothingís going to phase me now, I have strong hands & I can HODL until at least 2021 - 2022 like Iíve always said.

So itís simply time to get on with our boring jobs/businesses until moon launch.

I think that part of my goal has been to attempt to make bitcoin a more boring investment for me, but having so much ongoing action and drama in the bitcoin space (and the ongoing attacks on bitcoin) seems to cause some inabilities to completely detach from some ongoing involvement in the investment... yet, at the same, time, I do believe that if BTC value does continue to go up in any kind of reasonable way (that is largely presumed to have high likelihood), then my goal to become a lot more passive in my BTC investment has decent odds of realization in the coming years.. and moreso the longer that I project out the timeline (and decent likelihood of enjoying while having some youth).
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November 30, 2018, 08:35:32 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
#437368

The bottom is not in.

This isnít about price, itís about time.  We havenít had enough time to digest the last bull market.  

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I canít give you a price target because itís not about price.  

Well, what this contention is based on, exactly?
There is no law that in bitcoin bear markets have to last the same time as bull markets (or longer).
In US stocks market, by comparison, bull markets typically last longer (in time) than bear markets (at least in the last 100-120 years).
I "digested" the last bull market just fine, so I vote for bull resumption earlier than mid 2019.

TL;DR Basically, this is just an opinion that is not based on anything else than your "gut". It could be right, but could be wrong just as well.
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November 30, 2018, 08:37:39 PM
Merited by BTCMILLIONAIRE (1), Last of the V8s (1), micgoossens (1)
#437369

Just merited a quote instead of the original.

You guys look all the same with that hats.

 ?? These hats are more unique than a Bitcoin address.



I will wear mine when this signature campaign Iím in ends. I sort of want to wear it now & wave the pay from the campaign but Iíll wait until it ends Grin

LFC hat will be worn early New Year!

Will this hat fad last until the new year?  you could become a late adopter, perhaps?
What the fuck do you mean "fad"?

A fad is like a trend/fashion that passes. Kind of like a haircut or sneakers that arenít cool for long
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November 30, 2018, 08:38:53 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)
#437370

The bottom is not in.

This isnít about price, itís about time.  We havenít had enough time to digest the last bull market. 

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I canít give you a price target because itís not about price. 

Well, what this contention is based on, exactly?
There is no law that in bitcoin bear markets have to last the same time as bull markets (or longer).
In US stocks market, by comparison, bull markets typically last longer (in time) than bear markets (at least in the last 100-120 years).
I "digested" the last bull market just fine, so I vote for bull resumption earlier than mid 2019.

TL;DR Basically, this is just an opinion that is not based on anything else than your "gut". It could be right, but could be wrong just as well.


WheatBits has been shooting the acid directly into the balls of his eyes. I believe this was jojo's idea. We can all see through time now.

Trust us.
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November 30, 2018, 08:40:10 PM
Merited by BTCMILLIONAIRE (1)
#437371

Just merited a quote instead of the original.

You guys look all the same with that hats.

 ?? These hats are more unique than a Bitcoin address.



I will wear mine when this signature campaign Iím in ends. I sort of want to wear it now & wave the pay from the campaign but Iíll wait until it ends Grin

LFC hat will be worn early New Year!

Will this hat fad last until the new year?  you could become a late adopter, perhaps?
What the fuck do you mean "fad"?

One way to rile up folks... talk about something meaningful, hats.

hahahahahahaha
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November 30, 2018, 08:41:04 PM
#437372

Just merited a quote instead of the original.

You guys look all the same with that hats.

 ?? These hats are more unique than a Bitcoin address.



I will wear mine when this signature campaign Iím in ends. I sort of want to wear it now & wave the pay from the campaign but Iíll wait until it ends Grin

LFC hat will be worn early New Year!

Will this hat fad last until the new year?  you could become a late adopter, perhaps?
What the fuck do you mean "fad"?

A fad is like a trend/fashion that passes. Kind of like a haircut or sneakers that arenít cool for long
I'm not sure if you're trying to whoosh me or not.
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November 30, 2018, 08:50:11 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)
#437373

Here is my attempt at btc bottoming fundamental analysis:

Bitcoin mining difficulty peaked on 9/30/2018, then went flat, now rapidly declining.
The last time this happened on a sustained basis was during Nov 2011 bottom.

In 2011 it took four months before market bottomed and decline in difficulty stopped (in correlation with the price rebound).
Counting from 9/30, we are already two months into difficulty decline period.
If total decline period is to last only four months, we would need to turn around (price-wise) within a month (or already) to get to the rise again by the end of four months period.
One may argue that it could last longer, but nobody knows what the result of such decline would be on system functioning. Yes, difficulty would slowly adjust downwards and relieve the pressure on miners, but it takes two weeks for adjustment, which might be too slow for some.

IF, on the other hand, you would continue both price and difficulty decline until mid 2019, bitcoin might be in jeopardy by the time it turns around there.

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November 30, 2018, 08:54:35 PM
#437374

The bottom is not in.

This isn’t about price, it’s about time.  We haven’t had enough time to digest the last bull market. 

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I can’t give you a price target because it’s not about price. 
I believe we won't go lower than 3k or something around this and, if that will be the case, those price windows will be available just for a short time, it probably won't stabilize on those prices for a while.
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November 30, 2018, 09:00:27 PM
#437375

Just merited a quote instead of the original.

You guys look all the same with that hats.

 ?? These hats are more unique than a Bitcoin address.



I will wear mine when this signature campaign Iím in ends. I sort of want to wear it now & wave the pay from the campaign but Iíll wait until it ends Grin

LFC hat will be worn early New Year!

Will this hat fad last until the new year?  you could become a late adopter, perhaps?
What the fuck do you mean "fad"?

One way to rile up folks... talk about something meaningful, hats.

hahahahahahaha

rifle up for what ? I mean it's ridiculous... it would be fun "they" come for your bitcoins, I can't imagine the ez surrender, when already with a clear clean cut case like epstein there is no executions, so what else can the doj do? launch the irs or scan which laws have been violated in the day to protect their rapists friends... anyway... america vs china.

give your bitcoin, we will kill your potential rapists. trade? deal! nice welcome to safety, collective, yeah...
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November 30, 2018, 09:03:06 PM
Last edit: November 30, 2018, 09:28:44 PM by PoolMinor
Merited by micgoossens (1)
#437376


What do people here think drives the price of BTC (either direction) the most?

1. Adoption
2. Use methods
3. Scarcity
4. Technology
5. News
6. Rumors
7. This thread
8. Whales
9. Hats

And which are the most predictable events or follow a pattern?


Edit:
Hint -- What drives the price of diamonds?
Last of the V8s
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November 30, 2018, 09:06:32 PM
Last edit: November 30, 2018, 09:23:07 PM by Last of the V8s
#437377



Ok boys we have three hours to turn this monthly green.
Everybody stop drinking and buy $100 of bitcoin right now.
If we all pull together as a team, hairy and bald, prickly and smooth, bigot and oppressed, brown, pink, hatted and hatless, we can do it.
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November 30, 2018, 09:19:50 PM
Merited by PoolMinor (1)
#437378




What do people here think drives the price of BTC (either direction) the most?

1. Adoption
2. Use methods
3. Scarcity
4. Technology
5. News
6. Rumors
7. This thread
8. Whales
9. Hats

And which are the most predictable events or follow a pattern?


ftfm  Tongue

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November 30, 2018, 09:30:44 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)
#437379

The bottom is not in.

This isnít about price, itís about time.  We havenít had enough time to digest the last bull market.  

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I canít give you a price target because itís not about price.  

Do you still stand by your uber high price prediction of 280k per coin at the top of the next cycle?

At the peak, yes.  Itís only 14x prior ATH. 
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November 30, 2018, 09:34:24 PM
#437380

The volume has declined under 6B$. Lets hope the price will not dip.
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