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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21293508 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
jbreher
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December 03, 2018, 05:51:56 AM

Hopefully jbreher wakes up eventually.  And I mean that with all sincerity.

Thanks for your well-wishes. I expect SV will be the long-term victor. However, markets are made of people, and people are largely irrational. Accordingly, I'm hedged in order to be all right regardless of whether it be SV, ABC, or even Segwit that goes the distance.
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jbreher
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December 03, 2018, 05:59:38 AM

... and I remain anonymous.

Hmm. How many seasoned bass players actively gigging the Toronto metroplex market regularly visit Mexico for extended periods?

Wink
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December 03, 2018, 06:00:49 AM

...5x in five years, is quite well in a kind of 100% per year arena ...

Well, no. 100% annual gains for five years is 32x.
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December 03, 2018, 06:01:24 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Thanks for your well-wishes. I expect SV will be the long-term victor. However, markets are made of people, and people are largely irrational. Accordingly, I'm hedged in order to be all right regardless of whether it be SV, ABC, or even Segwit that goes the distance.

Calls people "largely irrational" and bitcoin "Segwit" in the same comment  Roll Eyes

You seem to have forgotten that any sort of adoption requires the public to get onboard with an idea, which requires a degree of likability, of which your camp is totally devoid.

If there's one thing for sure, you absolutely don't believe in the wisdom of the crowd.
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December 03, 2018, 06:05:53 AM

He believes in the wisdom of Calvin Ayre and Craig Wright



Which is, frankly speaking, hilarious.  


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December 03, 2018, 06:12:04 AM

...5x in five years, is quite well in a kind of 100% per year arena ...

Well, no. 100% annual gains for five years is 32x.

Words are his strong suit, not the maths. Contrary to his percentages he pulls out of nowhere, now we see there is actually no basis for his statistical analysis.  Wink

25 = 32  Cheesy
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December 03, 2018, 06:14:20 AM

He believes in the wisdom of Calvin Ayre and Craig Wright



Which is, frankly speaking, hilarious.  




I feel like whoever that photographer is they must be questioning the nature of their existence.

"I only got into this business because I wanted to work for National Geographic..."
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December 03, 2018, 06:16:45 AM
Merited by nutildah (1)

$5 says its a midget standing on a stool
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December 03, 2018, 06:19:39 AM

as if 90% of us wouldn't behave the same way given the opportunity
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December 03, 2018, 06:22:40 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

as if 90% of us wouldn't behave the same way given the opportunity

Fuck no we absolutely would not post that shit to social media with our personal brands splashed across it
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December 03, 2018, 06:25:41 AM

Who of you guys trade on coinbase?

present

Quote
Any advise on which exchange CB is following?

? Coinbase. Obviously.
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December 03, 2018, 06:32:37 AM

Magicpoopcannon threatens $1163.  Which is a shower of shit & glitter.  There's nothing wrong with the chart though.



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/4v3ESqPO-Possibly-My-Most-Important-Bitcoin-Analysis-Ever-BTC/
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December 03, 2018, 06:44:23 AM

Coinbase Pro sticks pretty close to Stamp.  However it was the price leader during the end stages of the 2017 bull run
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December 03, 2018, 07:09:26 AM

...5x in five years, is quite well in a kind of 100% per year arena ...

Well, no. 100% annual gains for five years is 32x.

Sure, technically you are correct, but you already likely saw the way that I was explaining, so you are merely trying to throw in some irrelevant technical mumbo jumbo that is not relevant to the point that I was attempting to make.   So, I averaged per year after taking the overall gain for that period.  These are largely approximations, anyhow, based on my own system of calculation and approximation.

Perhaps, based on my ongoing practices of calculating none of my prior calculations would be correct, but I don't really care.

 For example, when I got into bitcoin I had approximated that my equities type investments, largely index funds and some of them within 401k like plans, had averaged about an annual return of 5.5%.  I am not sure whether my then calculations were correct or not, but I did not give too much of a shit, because I was making a ballpark calculation for what I thought might be a reasonable average return for BTC over an extended period of time.  Therefore, if my return in bitcoin was in the ball park of the return of my traditional investment, then I would be feeling fairly good about my BTC investment. 

In sum, even if I am mischaracterizing my return in some sense, I think that i sufficiently described how I arrived I don't give too much shits, except to figure out if I need to make changes to my bitcoin investment as compared with other investments that I have.  In the end, I have no other traditional investments that even come close in the ballpark of my BTC returns.  Maybe at some point, I may need to reconsider my BTC investments, but I doubt that it really matters too much, especially, there will likely be a time in which I am going to begin to consider periodic withdrawals from my BTC investment too.... although, if BTC does progress in a world money direction, then that kind of a factor might continue to suggest to employ Gresham type principles including continuing to spend what is perceived to be less valuable money first (the money that seems least likely to appreciate or to have decent signs of value stability). 

In that regard, I long ago got rid of my bcash shit, even though folks, such as yourself, purport to perceive that it is prudent to make such allocations with your value (banking on some kind of decent future value with that seeming turmoil of crap), and of course, spending dollar based assets first might continue to be a decent spending practice - even though if the BTC price goes shooting up again, in akind of exponential price boom, as it has done historically, then it can be more prudent to cash out a bit larger amounts of bitcoin because of the wave like patterns that come when an asset has higher levels of volatility.
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December 03, 2018, 07:13:59 AM

as if 90% of us wouldn't behave the same way given the opportunity

Fuck no we absolutely would not post that shit to social media with our personal brands splashed across it

+1

But yeah its like who in their right mind does that? Nobody

At least Hugh Heffner's photos were job-related.

Whether I hired multiple whores 30 years my younger (OK... in 10-20 years from now) or not I certainly wouldn't be boasting online about it.
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December 03, 2018, 07:14:52 AM

So..... the last resort now is for a short rekt happening soon?
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December 03, 2018, 07:15:12 AM

...5x in five years, is quite well in a kind of 100% per year arena ...

Well, no. 100% annual gains for five years is 32x.

Words are his strong suit, not the maths. Contrary to his percentages he pulls out of nowhere, now we see there is actually no basis for his statistical analysis.  Wink

25 = 32  Cheesy

There are a lot of folks who are smart with their maths, but have difficulties expressing their ideas and difficulties describing which ideas are priorities or relevant.  I would not get so smug if I were you, poolminor... but hey do what you want.  I have seen quite a bit of dumbass, emotional, nonsubstantiated bullshit coming out of your keyboard, for whatever that is worth.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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December 03, 2018, 07:24:00 AM

Look I don’t think you can call Jbear autistic.  His methods are unsound but he shows awareness of his surroundings and of others.
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December 03, 2018, 07:28:38 AM
Merited by PoolMinor (1)

Data/information is only as good as its source. Highest level being 15, not bullish. Edit: Bitcoin Cash has a "16". 

Bitcoin SV? 100.

#justsayin'
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December 03, 2018, 07:38:29 AM
Last edit: December 03, 2018, 07:52:31 AM by gwaur

Magicpoopcannon threatens $1163.  Which is a shower of shit & glitter.  There's nothing wrong with the chart though.



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/4v3ESqPO-Possibly-My-Most-Important-Bitcoin-Analysis-Ever-BTC/
yeah... there's still a chance that we might bounce off 2500-3000 in January, but i fully expect the bear market to extend into Q2/Q3 and bottom out at the previous ATH.
anyhow, watch out for the January sell-off. people are still holding back on cashing out because taxes, but the beginning of 2019 may be harsh.
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