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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21331300 times)
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empowering
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December 08, 2018, 04:42:46 AM
Last edit: December 08, 2018, 05:09:19 AM by empowering



You are up tight sometimes JJ

Well, I understand the question making people feel uncomfortable, but I never said it was realistic , I have stated quite clearly how I see things most likely playing out..

The question in short form would perhaps be more palatable i.e “BTC capitulates more than you think possible- what do you do?” Which I think is an entirely reasonable and realistic question to ask.. more so one I expect everyone that participates in this thread would have thought of.

Then that way people could have filled in their own price levels , but I was just adding colour to the scene because amusing
 
Also I picked  the price levels purposely for shock factor for sure ... that was part of the question , capitulation that you are alright with is not capitulation, and  is not what I was asking about ? I was specifically asking about what if it does the unexpected... surely that’s not taboo? We are all old enough in this game for sure! Also I did clearly label as ay thought experiment , in my defence.

Tbh this thread is a perfect place to ask the question

Personally I am bullish long term, but bearish on shorter time frame  -  I see potential for a rally and then a rout as explained in earlier serious posts, if I am honest I have spent a little time since wondering about the scenario myself...

From a risk reward point of view in all honesty there is only 100% to the downside and there is in my view a easily achievable 1000% to the upside long term.

No brainier.

Coincidentally, it is partly because people are so certain it can’t do the unexpected, and seem to think they have a handle on the bottom  that I asked the question , like I said if everyone is happy then it’s hardly capitulation, and besides I just wanted to see what my OG WO buddies would say in response to the horror scenario.

You guys musta figured I am a pretty dark humoured individual by now 😀

Didn’t mean to ruffle any feathers thou’

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HairyMaclairy
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December 08, 2018, 04:48:36 AM

Please ruffle more feathers.  It’s better than whinging about the price!
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December 08, 2018, 05:21:08 AM
Last edit: December 08, 2018, 05:34:42 AM by virtual2018

Bitcoin will continue to decline to the $3,250 – $3,000 area? Huh
                                                                   111111                                                          
                                                                  11000001                                                        
                                                       1111111111011111111111111                                                
                                        1111111111111111101111111111111111111111                                        
                                   1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111                                    
                              1111111111111111111111111111000010011111111111111111100101                                
                            10111111111111000000000000000000000000000000000111111111111000                              
                          001111111111110000000111111111111 1   1111111110000001111101011001                            
                        101111111111111001              1111                           0000010001010110001                          
                       001111111111111010         1111111111111111111          10000010000000010000                        
                      1011111111111111001      11111111111111111111111      000011000000000110001                      
                     10111111111111111011     1111  1111111111 111111111    0000000100000000010100                      
                    101111111111111111001    11111    1111111111111111111   00000000000000001010000                    
                   1111111111111111111001   111 11      111111111111111111  0000000000000000001010001                  
                  0111111111111111111100  111111111      111111111111111111 0000100000000000001010100                  
                 00111111111111111111100  111111111      111111111111111111 10000000000000000000001100                  
                001111111111111111111100  111111111       111          1111      100010000000000000010001100                
               0011111111111111111111100  11111111111                111111     1000000000000000000110000100                
              01111111111111111111111100  111111111               111011111    10001000000000000000000001100              
             001111111111111111111111100 1111111111           1111111101111 100000000000000000000000000100              
            0011111111111111111111111100 1111111111  11100     01111111111  1000100000000000000000110000100            
           01111111111111111111111111101  11111111  1111111   11111111011   10000000000000000000001110000001            
          0011110111111111111111111111001  1111111 11111111  10011111101    100010000000000000000000000000001          
         10111111111111111111111111111011    11111111111111 11100001101     100011000000000000000000000000000          
         00011111011111111111111111111010     110011111111101000000000        000111000000000000000000000000001          
         00011111111111111111111111111000      1110001111110000000011            000000000000000000000000000000000          
        100111111011111111111111111111000          1111011000001                       000100000000000000000000000000000          
        000111111111111111111111111111000               1111                                10000000000000000000000000000000001        
        0001111111011111111111111111110011  1111111111111111101000000000101110000000000000000000000000000000000        
      1000001110111111111111111111111100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000        
      1110011111111101111111111111111111000111111111111111111111111111110000111111000 0000000000001000000000000        
     0011111111111011111111111111111111111011101010000000110000000100000000000000000 00000000010110000000000001        
        1000011111111111111111111000100000001001111111111111111111111111011010000000000 000000000000000000011            
           1100011110101011111110111111111111101111111111111111111110111111111111111111111 1100000000000                
                1110111111111111111111111111111111101011111111111110001011101111001111111111111 100011001                
                1111111111111111111111110111111111111111111111111111111001111111110111111111011 1110101101111            
               1011111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111101010001111111111 00111010001111            
               1011111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111000111110111110111 01011111001              
              1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111011111111101111111111111111111 111111111001              
              0111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111011001111111111111111 111110111001              
             1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111000011000001111000000101111111011 1010101110001              
             1011111111111110111111111111111111111111111111111111100011111111111110101110111 110111110000                
              10111111111111 111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111110000000000001                
               1111111110111100000000001011111111111111111111111111111111111011100010111111100 010000000                
                   1100010000000000000000000001011111111111111111111111111111000000000000000000000 011    
JayJuanGee
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December 08, 2018, 05:45:07 AM


Merry Christmas Smiley


Thank you very much and Merry Christmas to you as well. How awesome of you! And everyone else who contributed also, even single merits help obviously. Now I suppose a few shitposts and maybe a couple on topic and I can wear my hat this week! Yay! Grin

Your implication seems to be correct that as long as you merely post 12 more posts, that might be sufficient to bring your activity level to the 120 minimum for full member.

However, if your activity level does not go up to at least 120 from 12 more posts by you, then it will in two weeks, when the activity level gets updated again (as long as you make 12 more posts by then)..
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December 08, 2018, 06:12:47 AM

You are up tight sometimes JJ

I'm merely responding.


Well, I understand the question making people feel uncomfortable, but I never said it was realistic , I have stated quite clearly how I see things most likely playing out..

Doesn't opinion change based on what happens, and even if you have a prediction, that is merely what you consider to be probable based on certain facts that are known at the time of the prediction, and those facts could change and then change the probabilities assigned, at least changing facts should change perceived probabilities.

The question in short form would perhaps be more palatable i.e “BTC capitulates more than you think possible- what do you do?” Which I think is an entirely reasonable and realistic question to ask.. more so one I expect everyone that participates in this thread would have thought of.

Probably, you are correct that most people who are active in bitcoin for long enough, more than a year, would already realize that sometimes bitcoin price movements out perform expectations in one direction or another, and so it usually is good to have a plan, but I doubt that everyone has a plan, because sometimes people merely hope that the outperformance does not happen in a way that is counter to their position.


Then that way people could have filled in their own price levels , but I was just adding colour to the scene because amusing

Fair enough..

Likely you already asserted that I am too boring because frequently it becomes more and more difficult to speculate beyond one, two or three legs of what will happen.. even though I am definitely not opposed to anyone who prepares for many legs even though not knowing the order in which they will occur, the intensity or even if they will occur.

Also I picked  the price levels purposely for shock factor for sure ... that was part of the question , capitulation that you are alright with is not capitulation, and is not what I was asking about ?

Some people do plan to hold to zero, but actually going to zero or to some extreme could cause them to change their plan.... You are quite correct about that, even though some people might not even know until they are at that point or might not admit it until after they did such capitulation.  Also, there can be plans that are not quite all or nothing, too, that might not be capitulation but some kind of incrementalism that just takes some value off of the table or perhaps puts more value on the table.

I was specifically asking about what if it does the unexpected... surely that’s not taboo?

No it is not, but there can also be a lot of individual variation that is not just dependent upon facts that you outlined, but could be what is going on in other markets, too and also whether the person is hedged sufficiently.

We are all old enough in this game for sure! Also I did clearly label as ay thought experiment , in my defence.

Fair enough.


Tbh this thread is a perfect place to ask the question

Maybe not perfect, but close enough... you are right that active WO members here are generally pretty open to a variety of BTC price speculations and even other related hypothetical topics that might kind of relate to bitcoin.   Wink

Personally I am bullish long term, but bearish on shorter time frame  -  I see potential for a rally and then a rout as explained in earlier serious posts, if I am honest I have spent a little time since wondering about the scenario myself...

Actually, sometimes, if someone asks me a question, I will ask them to answer first, but I understand that if you are trying to get folks to provide their answers first, then you might not want to suggest answers, but even having had said all of that, the scenario remains quite out there and involves too many other possible facts to answer properly.. and in that regard, likely causes way more work on possible respondents than seems necessary.. but whatever, peeps can still choose to respond.. I have no issue with others choosing to respond.


From a risk reward point of view in all honesty there is only 100% to the downside and there is in my view a easily achievable 1000% to the upside long term.

If you leverage or use margin, those percentages might be thrown off considerably, meaning that you could lose more than the price movement (but of course not more than you bet, though it could be money that you don't have and have NOT prepared adequately to lose).


No brainier.

I think that the some variation of the scenario that you are describing is referred to as pascal's wager.


Coincidentally, it is partly because people are so certain it can’t do the unexpected, and seem to think they have a handle on the bottom  that I asked the question , like I said if everyone is happy then it’s hardly capitulation, and besides I just wanted to see what my OG WO buddies would say in response to the horror scenario.

Seems like there could be better ways to get responses, but of course, you have artistic freedom to make whatever solicitation that you deem warranted.

You guys musta figured I am a pretty dark humoured individual by now 😀

I thought that you took a long break from WO?  But you return for this correction? and excitement?

Didn’t mean to ruffle any feathers thou’

Like hairy mentioned in a subsequent post, nothing wrong with ruffling or attempting to ruffle a few feathers here and there.
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December 08, 2018, 06:53:22 AM
Last edit: December 08, 2018, 07:04:52 AM by VB1001

Good morning 3400$ is fine to wake up;)

It is amazing when we have these situations, news, graphics, memes, fud, fomo, of all kinds come out.



Better, this is good, it means that we move forward in the battle.
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December 08, 2018, 07:14:00 AM

I wonder if and when bitcoin price will surpass the page number on the forum.


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December 08, 2018, 08:07:38 AM
Last edit: December 08, 2018, 08:35:48 AM by bitebits

Consensys layoffs.  

https://www.coindesk.com/consensys-confirms-layoffs-projecting-13-of-staff-at-startups-to-be-cut/amp#click=https://t.co/LPyLqEc6Ev

Starting to feel a bit capitulationish.  

Still might need Consensys to be broken up entirely but it’s a start.

For OPSEC and not feeding those companies with even more information (and I am lazy Smiley), it would be great to tidy up the links posted in this thread before sharing: https://www.coindesk.com/consensys-confirms-layoffs-projecting-13-of-staff-at-startups-to-be-cut/

Regarding the 'capitulationish'. I can't stand the urge anymore and noticed myself buying again, while having plenty: even middle term these bitcoins feel way too cheap for what Bitcoin is and can be. It is that same tingly feeling like in 2015/2015: I should not buy more but can't let a discount like this pass.

Reserving (or justifying?) the new growing stack for some close family members, not sure yet.
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December 08, 2018, 08:25:14 AM

Thanks good point. Link fixed

Have moved my buy orders up.  Capitulation is close. I can smell it.

Anything under $3k is good buying imho.
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December 08, 2018, 08:34:22 AM

via Imgflip Meme Generator
F*** it let go

Nr 6 and counting brothers
English still te same so still able to drink same
Keep the riesling coming

Nouveau riche spotted, no table manners: fork in the right hand.

Just fooling with you Mic, cheers..
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December 08, 2018, 08:54:46 AM

Hmmm Bitmex trading at a $6 - 12 premium to Bitstamp.  Normally it is under Bitstamp by $8 - 10. Longs must be going nuts.  Poor fools. 
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December 08, 2018, 08:59:07 AM
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A thought experiment

........ It rallies to $5350

I go to the mountain and run the trails with my snow-mobile.

Then it drops , and smashes through all support to $1150
I go to the beach and surf the waves

Then the unthinkable happens... and it drops again

to $530.....

Markets are haywire, trading platforms freezing up, going off line, metric sites are spewing out jibberish

Have a drink at the bar and buy a round for all the people wearing red socks.

On Finex it flashcrashes to $75

Coinbase flashcrashes to $50 and goes offline

Take a nap after having a well deserved snack made by JJG's grandma.

The price rises to $750 and stabilises for 6 hours

Start a kick-starter campaign that emphasizes a machine that will reset one's circadian rhythm.
 
It drops to $350 and becomes stable for a day........... What are you guys doing at this point and up to this point? what is your next move? are you rekt? are you happy, are you trading hand over fist? are you drinking? are you jumping out of a window?

Enjoy a cold beer and a huge slice of pizza.

(Bonus question- Bitcoin SV OR Bcash or Ripple or Doge or  ETH or some other shitcoin is simultaneously going parabolic and either Craig or Rog or Vitalik are on youtube shit talking about how they are now number one, what are you doing? did you FOMO SV or Bcash, Doge or ETH or rando shitcoin? or no because rekt, rage quit, drunk etc) (EDIT for arguments sake lets say that the coin that has gone parabolic has already hit $5000)

Sorry I know its sordid and dark.... but I am curious to your answers  Cheesy  especially if they are amusing


FLO all the way. Go with FLO
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December 08, 2018, 09:03:49 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Wekkel (1), infofront (1), Dunkelheit667 (1), empowering (1), HairyMaclairy (1), ivomm (1), Kylapoiss (1)

Prediction:
 In the next week we take one last nasty leg down (2350ish) followed by huge green dildo up with volume so epic no one can deny its the one true capitulation.

Checklist to make sure capitulation is complete:

1. Jimbo greets us but forgets or purposely neglects to say "Good Morning."

2. The ever ungrateful to the crypto gods and glass half empty Searing sells a huge chunk of coins for peanuts and
    continues to complain more about all the money he has than 99.9999 percent of people with a nice net worth.

2. JJG is at a loss for words and can only muster a few sentences.

3. MicGoosens will finally post a pic of eating inexpensive fast food, girlfriend will not be present in pic bc she is
    taking some time to herself to consider a possibly more secure future with a nocoiner. (no worries though
    goose, she will come to her senses once the dildo appears)

4. Roach in a huge burst of never felt before confidence will talk to a female for the first time in 6 years. For reasons
    unknown to science she will like Roach and he will have a real shot at losing virginity. He will get a
    phone number, but then when he does a reverse number lookup in the whitepages he will realize she has a Jewish
    last name and take another 6 years off from speaking to females.(he will never admit it happened, but the green
    dildo will confirm it)

Once this list is completed we will start the next bull run. The big surprise few will expect will be having another small bubble to 50k before the next halving and all the "crypto winter" dreamers thinking they have all of 2019 and much of 2020 to collect cheap coins will be left in the dust bin of crypto history.

Ill leave you with the late Waylon Jennings son's best song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpiTOTgkHrI
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December 08, 2018, 09:07:39 AM

That is hilarious.  And possibly true. 
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December 08, 2018, 09:17:36 AM


A thought experiment

 

I stay here in Thailand and become a Buddhist monk. Not for any spiritual reason but so that I can eat. Also with no money I would likely not do so well with the ladies...so at least I would have an excuse.
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December 08, 2018, 09:19:51 AM

Good post Lambie  Cheesy
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December 08, 2018, 09:20:25 AM

Hmmm Bitmex trading at a $6 - 12 premium to Bitstamp.  Normally it is under Bitstamp by $8 - 10. Longs must be going nuts.  Poor fools. 

Bitstamp is what controlls the bitcoin price, always has been always will be,  It's either a bot there or the owners have been manipulating it since the start.   I found it strange how it's so difficult to join bitstamp, even after verifiying my identity, being an EU citizen with valid documents, they rejected them as they were not dated within 3 months.  The Spanish document the NIE is issued once, and once only meaning i would and had to join bitstamp within a 3 month window or can never join.  I tried to Join using my UK citizenship but it was rejected.

I fully expect someone involed with bitstamp in some way to be in charged with something in the future.  There order books never seem to tally, they seem to have unlimited funds but lower volume than some other exchanges.    Tether is currently 1.01 USD, yet Bitstamp is still lagging behind tether exchanges dragging the price down for as long as possible.  

All possible rallys seem to be held back by some anonomous entity on bitstamp that seamingly won't budge, same is true of the bearish breaks in bull market senarios.

Just my opinion, but thats what I have observed in my 6 years of watching the charts and orderbooks with bitstamp vs other exchanges.

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December 08, 2018, 09:27:40 AM

A thought experiment

........ It rallies to $5350


Then it drops , and smashes through all support to $1150

Then the unthinkable happens... and it drops again

to $530.....

Markets are haywire, trading platforms freezing up, going off line, metric sites are spewing out jibberish


On Finex it flashcrashes to $75

Coinbase flashcrashes to $50 and goes offline


The price rises to $750 and stabilises for 6 hours

It's a crazy scenario... I don't think BTC will bottom lower than 2-2.5k...


Quote
It drops to $350 and becomes stable for a day........... What are you guys doing at this point and up to this point? what is your next move? are you rekt? are you happy, are you trading hand over fist? are you drinking? are you jumping out of a window?

...but if this one will be the case, I will buy more. At the moment there is nothing that can stop me from thinking this market will sooner or later skyrocket again. The thing is we should consider how much time BTC needs to recover, and this is totally out of our control... 1 month or 1 year... or more? Probaly this time longer than we would expect.

Quote
(Bonus question- Bitcoin SV OR Bcash or Ripple or Doge or  ETH or some other shitcoin is simultaneously going parabolic and either Craig or Rog or Vitalik are on youtube shit talking about how they are now number one, what are you doing? did you FOMO SV or Bcash, Doge or ETH or rando shitcoin? or no because rekt, rage quit, drunk etc) (EDIT for arguments sake lets say that the coin that has gone parabolic has already hit $5000)

After 1 year BCH is still a crap coin while SV has more roller coaster but I invested on a couple of alts at the end of 2017 waiting to liquidate..

In particular I still need to liquidate BC(s)H(it) and fortunately I sold my ETHs in a relatively good moment. For now BTC is the way... unless some main alt price will go further down but I would stay away from ETH related coins.

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December 08, 2018, 09:31:20 AM

Interesting how perceptions vary

I view Bitstamp as the only honest exchange in the ecosystem.  I think a lot of OG whales there.  And they only trade physical so no bullshit about the price being pushed around by leverage (short or long). 

Expect plenty of cash sitting in accounts which are not in open orders. Hence how they can seem to have limitless cash with thin books.  Or maybe iceberg orders I dunno. 
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December 08, 2018, 09:42:06 AM

Interesting how perceptions vary

I view Bitstamp as the only honest exchange in the ecosystem.  I think a lot of OG whales there.  And they only trade physical so no bullshit about the price being pushed around by leverage (short or long).  

Expect plenty of cash sitting in accounts which are not in open orders. Hence how they can seem to have limitless cash with thin books.  Or maybe iceberg orders I dunno.  

By physical you mean a database entry?  

I have 100s of snapshots of the inprobable bitstamp orderbooks, that changes in unison frequently, it doesn't happen anywhere else that I have seen.  Personaly Im heavily skeptical.

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