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Question: 9/19 Closing Price:
0 - 1 (2.2%)
<$10,000 - 3 (6.5%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 1 (2.2%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 7 (15.2%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 12 (26.1%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 7 (15.2%)
$12,001-$12,500 - 6 (13%)
$12,501-$13,000 - 2 (4.3%)
>$13,000 - 2 (4.3%)
>$20,000 - 5 (10.9%)
Total Voters: 46

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 22337695 times)
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Dogboy714
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December 09, 2018, 05:09:36 AM

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

This guy has a nice color visual of it. He also makes a strong case that nothing matters but the halven'ing!
Buy aqua - sell orange!

https://mobile.twitter.com/100trillionUSD

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S_Therapist
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December 09, 2018, 05:14:54 AM

MN- Manipulation
AC- Accumulating
That's what is happening, IMO. This thrend will be continued for a couple of months.

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December 09, 2018, 05:15:49 AM

My Christmas wishes re bitcoin in 2019:

1. No ETF. Why? Because institutions are losers who don't give a s-t about bitcoin as an idea. Same for retirees. Watch them scramble to alternative assets once their asses would be on the line due to the downturn.

2. No bakkt. Why? Because bakkt will manifest custodial holding, hopothecation, rehypothetication, same as gold. Garbage! We don't need it. We do not need custodial solution when blockchain is the most secure custodian EVER.

3. No bitmain. I hope that they piss off and/or go bankrupt.

4. Yes 10X, maybe even 100X growth of Lightning.

5. Yes to more people participating in bitcoin.

6. Yes to more self-organization of the bitcoin crowd. We need it to survive potential fiat calamities. Do I want gold? Nope.

I agree with everything but LN. Sorry, but keeping my funds in a hot wallet is not the best security.
You can lock sums as small as you please. Your reward: the coins locked in that hot wallet gain relatively anonymous near-instant mobility.

The issue with LN is making mainchain on and offramps seamlessly cheap and anonymous by clever batching/mixing, which is the easiest (only?) way to quick channel rebalancing. The natural places to do the batching/mixing would be exchanges, but can I trust them? I think third-party sites will take on that job. Sites that could be run by pools of users - a bit like mining pools, but with much lower profit if any.
Icygreen
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December 09, 2018, 05:17:05 AM

After all, I fight TPTB with BTC because I don't see any other way currently.




You know why silver doesn't work?  You need 195 kilos of it just to transfer one-hundred-thousand-dollars. It's heavy AF!  You also won't be getting through any borders with any decent size stash if you could somehow carry it.  Even if it goes to astronomical valuations, you still can't carry a big stash. But bitcoin,  Grin
Don't know why I bothered to reply, your trolling is really weak and transparent.  Time to step it up or STFU
 
gwaur
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December 09, 2018, 05:18:28 AM

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

That's a hard chart to make meaningful. Different hardware availability, different hardware profitability, and different scales of mining companies. Too many variables really.

Anecdotally though, as a former miner from back then, I think this crash is a little bit deeper for miners (evidenced by the decreasing hash rate). I was mining back then and I was profitable until the second half of 2015 at which point I was mining at about break even for "electricity only" with $250 BTC. I was losing money on the facility costs and made no money for my time invested.

The operations now days are much larger with much larger fixed costs for facilities, loans and employees. $6000 was probably break even for them with the difficulty of a month ago. Now, difficulty is down ~20% and prices are down ~40%.

Every miner in the world is likely losing money now if they sell mining proceeds daily. Very few miners do that though. As a miner, you are a trader by default. Just like a farmer, you store your crops if you can and wait for the best time to sell. The longer these prices remain, the more miners will file for bankruptcy or sell their stash to cover basic necessities such as electricity and payroll.

With enough bankrupt miners, the difficulty should theoretically drop another 20% while prices stay ~$3500 to balance things out.


EDIT: The point though is that we are in the second half of 2015 if you are using mining difficulty/profitability as an indicator and comparing the last bear market to this one.
now the miners are shorting too.
https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-miners-short-btc-markets-to-hedge-against-falling-prices/
criptix
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December 09, 2018, 05:20:47 AM

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

That's a hard chart to make meaningful. Different hardware availability, different hardware profitability, and different scales of mining companies. Too many variables really.

Anecdotally though, as a former miner from back then, I think this crash is a little bit deeper for miners (evidenced by the decreasing hash rate). I was mining back then and I was profitable until the second half of 2015 at which point I was mining at about break even for "electricity only" with $250 BTC. I was losing money on the facility costs and made no money for my time invested.

The operations now days are much larger with much larger fixed costs for facilities, loans and employees. $6000 was probably break even for them with the difficulty of a month ago. Now, difficulty is down ~20% and prices are down ~40%.

Every miner in the world is likely losing money now if they sell mining proceeds daily. Very few miners do that though. As a miner, you are a trader by default. Just like a farmer, you store your crops if you can and wait for the best time to sell. The longer these prices remain, the more miners will file for bankruptcy or sell their stash to cover basic necessities such as electricity and payroll.

With enough bankrupt miners, the difficulty should theoretically drop another 20% while prices stay ~$3500 to balance things out.


EDIT: The point though is that we are in the second half of 2015 if you are using mining difficulty/profitability as an indicator and comparing the last bear market to this one.
now the miners are shorting too.
https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-miners-short-btc-markets-to-hedge-against-falling-prices/


Last time i checked even my parents were shorting BTC...  Roll Eyes

Shorts are big since the drop from 6k.


Edit.

There might be an inverted H&S forming on 1D.

Crossing fingers.
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December 09, 2018, 05:26:56 AM

Just today, my great-aunt asked me how to short Bitcoin!
rolling
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December 09, 2018, 05:36:38 AM

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

That's a hard chart to make meaningful. Different hardware availability, different hardware profitability, and different scales of mining companies. Too many variables really.

Anecdotally though, as a former miner from back then, I think this crash is a little bit deeper for miners (evidenced by the decreasing hash rate). I was mining back then and I was profitable until the second half of 2015 at which point I was mining at about break even for "electricity only" with $250 BTC. I was losing money on the facility costs and made no money for my time invested.

The operations now days are much larger with much larger fixed costs for facilities, loans and employees. $6000 was probably break even for them with the difficulty of a month ago. Now, difficulty is down ~20% and prices are down ~40%.

Every miner in the world is likely losing money now if they sell mining proceeds daily. Very few miners do that though. As a miner, you are a trader by default. Just like a farmer, you store your crops if you can and wait for the best time to sell. The longer these prices remain, the more miners will file for bankruptcy or sell their stash to cover basic necessities such as electricity and payroll.

With enough bankrupt miners, the difficulty should theoretically drop another 20% while prices stay ~$3500 to balance things out.


EDIT: The point though is that we are in the second half of 2015 if you are using mining difficulty/profitability as an indicator and comparing the last bear market to this one.
now the miners are shorting too.
https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-miners-short-btc-markets-to-hedge-against-falling-prices/


Last time i checked even my parents were shorting BTC...  Roll Eyes

Shorts are big since the drop from 6k.


Edit.

There might be an inverted H&S forming on 1D.

Crossing fingers.

You know what do do when everybody and their dog is doing something? Do the opposite. I think we are very close to the next bull run. If granny is shorting bitcoin, it's time to buy.
criptix
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December 09, 2018, 05:46:58 AM


Edit.

There might be an inverted H&S forming on 1D.

Crossing fingers.

Not even halfway, way too early. One shoulder does not make a neckline.


Thus i said might and crossing fingers.  Grin

Really hope for a bounce else it just looks like we are totaly rekt.


@rolling

Or you just go with the trend Tongue
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December 09, 2018, 05:52:52 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1), infofront (1), Lambie Slayer (1)

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

This guy has a nice color visual of it. He also makes a strong case that nothing matters but the halven'ing!
Buy aqua - sell orange!

https://mobile.twitter.com/100trillionUSD


this market right now feels a lot more like the the 2011/12 bear than the 2014/15 bear, more vicious, organic, dog-eat-dog and less managed/contrived/orchestrated/manipulated.

In 2011/12 Bitcoinica and the shorting mania that unravelled spectacularly there might have something to do with it ... the news of miners shorting (hedging production forward) makes me think we are very near the final capitulation. This often happens in commodities markets at the bottom, the producers sell forward production even though they are going broke and it is killing their future market, it's an act of total desperation, that's what this feels like.

Probably central banks (likely through their proxies like JPM and UBS) are starting to buy up some cheap coins, to hedge for future possibilities ya know too ... that gives it that extra vicious edge when nation state dogs fight over the same piece of kill meat too.
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December 09, 2018, 06:43:37 AM
Merited by Lambie Slayer (1)

I wasn't around in 2011.  Can you tell us more about what it was like?
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December 09, 2018, 07:17:18 AM

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December 09, 2018, 07:47:27 AM
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I used to think bitcoin go big moon but now think it go down to hell.

Zoom out, dip twat.. and don't get caught up into whatever seems to be the current momentum.

jjg having a fever?

short explanation?  

Just capitulation getting much much closer is all. You still have your part to play Goose in this cosmic dance. A pic of you eating some Ramen noodles or a cold can of beans would do the trick. If you wanna end this bear market quickly then sacrifices must be made to the Gods of Capitulation. Jimbo earnestly and sincerely telling us all to go fuck ourselves would also really help. Our families are waiting in desperate need so please do the right thing sirs. JJG, thank you for setting a good example and making a sacrifice. Im sure it wasnt easy writing such a short and concise piece of life advice to Pirate Dip Twat, we all know he could have benefited from some instructions on incremental selling and buying strategies.
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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December 09, 2018, 08:38:23 AM

trichotomous

Is that a three headed hippo?

Where's your stop profit?

Stopped using them because I always got it wrong.  Instead I chase the price downwards with a scale out of stop losses.  So let the market make the decision.  Its the JJG School of ShortingTM, gradually sell on the way down and then gradually buy on the way back up.

It seems to me that you need your own Hairy Bearie trademark for that variation of incrementalism because it significantly differs from my approach and my thinking (even though practically your approach seems to have decent practicalities)... Anyhow, my incrementalism approach is largely chicken shit about shorting (or using margin).
HairyMaclairy
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December 09, 2018, 08:46:47 AM

Just think of it as chicken shit shorting

If you prefer I use my own trademark though so I don’t dilute your brand it’s ok.

HairycowardiceTM
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December 09, 2018, 08:52:11 AM

Just today, my great-aunt asked me how to short Bitcoin!


I admire you but I don’t believe you.

You know why silver doesn't work?  You need 195 kilos of it just to transfer one-hundred-thousand-dollars. It's heavy AF!

Even a burglar couldn't be fucked with that.  Take the jewellery, whisky and iPads instead.    
JayJuanGee
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December 09, 2018, 09:11:03 AM

Just think of it as chicken shit shorting

If you prefer I use my own trademark though so I don’t dilute your brand it’s ok.

HairycowardiceTM

You are either too tough on yourself or too humble.... because you seem to have something going, at least recently, seems like shorting would have been pretty profitable (if played correctly).

In other words, that name seems like it is just not going to inspire confidence from other peeps.
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December 09, 2018, 09:37:59 AM

I’m here to shit post not inspire confidence.
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December 09, 2018, 10:25:41 AM

Bitcoin SV is Bitcoin

Simple to (re-) enable any business on it

https://twitter.com/money_button/status/1071446239927971841
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December 09, 2018, 10:36:22 AM


I have to disagree. That trendline needs to be lower, the start should be at the end of 2015.

below 3000 is not possible  https://forum.bits.media/index.php?/topic/952-%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%80%D1%81-bitcoin/&do=findComment&comment=1707986
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