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Yes, my target is (a modest) "fuck you" money, what else?
There's nothing wrong with having a decently high goal, but if such goal requires only one of many scenarios to come true, then such goal is likely to lead to disappointment. Actually, I have seen enough posts from you, that I realize that you are a bit more practical than that, yet my point remains that there are likely a variety of ways to work towards the "fuck you" money goal that has various alternative ways of getting there. But if you were locked in that "fuck you money" goal has to happen by x date, then that seems too narrow, even though I doubt that you are saying that it "has to" happen by x date, but instead that if BTC prices reaches $50k or $160k by x date, then you will have achieved "fuck you money status," and if it does not reach those levels then you are going to be shy of "fuck you money" status based on current projections.
I am not "continually" buying. Ie: My last fiat deposit was around July/August 2017.
I am a bit torn by your response, here, because, you don't necessarily have to buy on an ongoing basis to continue to inject fiat into a fund that is dedicated to BTC, yet it does seem that you are not really engaging in any kind of dollar cost averaging variant, if you are not at least attempting to stack away some fiat based on my assumption that you also have an ongoing cashflow that is coming in fiat and that some percentage of that cashflow could be dedicated to BTC - even if it is only 1% of the cashflow (or some other reasonably prudent and modest amount).
Part of the reason that your response concerns me is your assessment that you need some really high BTC values in order to achieve a sufficient level of "fuck you money,' but also a kind of concession that if you have more bitcoin, then the level of the BTC price would NOT need to be as high in order to achieve "fuck you" money status.
Accordingly, there may be some error in my ways, too, but part of what I had considered that I had been doing throughout my BTC investment was to invest a bit more than I need in order to NOT feel so bad about selling a decent amount of it on the way up. Perhaps what I am saying is easier said than done, and also, it can be a bit annoying too that I would end up buying back at a lot more higher price points that now, in retrospect, seem that I was buying back too much and too high.. but that is merely in retrospect because I still believe that we cannot really know with much confidence about the shorter term direction of the BTC price, and frequently, we just do not have enough information, so on an ongoing basis, it does not seem to be a bad idea to be buying BTC, even at prices that are higher as long as largely (not necessarily completely) using proceeds from BTC that had been sold at even a higher price.
The little increase in btc count since then has been exclusively by trading. Also, while I did start buying in 2013 (and never sold any... except for trading) the amounts I used then were not that much significant. Play money in all senses.
You and I are similar in that regard, even though we might think of the matter differently and describe some of the matter a bit differently, and maybe even have a bit different variation in our strategy. For example, when my BTC portfolio was in the red, and even bordering on the red, which was pretty much through all of 2014, 2015 and a decent portion of 2016, I would always buy back every single satoshi that I sold, and even buy back more than I sold, so that any sale during that time was NOT bringing down my quantity of BTC.. ..
Once the value of my BTC progressed into profitability, I have not been so preoccupied about whether if I precisely replace every satoshi that I sell or transact, because I consider those satoshis to all be profitable, if I happen to sell a bit extra. Anyhow, the larger the cushion between the approximate cost per BTC and the current value of the BTC, the less worried I am about selling a little bit extra, here and there.
On the other hand, I still am influenced by such considerable correction in the BTC price (that currently we are in), which is currently floating in about the 83% arena, and even with no real clear sign that the bottom is "in" Anyhow, such ongoing level of correction and possibility for more down BTC prices, does justify some possible accumulation of cashflow fiat (or dry powder as some might say), that might be injected at various points in which the BTC price might fall (or might not)... kind of like emergency fiat.. that is just kept on the sidelines.
During the bear market I hodled it all but not bought more (except for a single purchase around may 2014 when I though the trend was going to reverse). I only resumed buying again at the last months of 2015 (when I was completely sure the trend was reversing) until july/august 2017.
That does not really sound like dollar cost averaging, but just attempts to strategically buy the dips - which is maybe a strategy of a more informed investor at least an attempt at timing the dips better than any average person would feel comfortable in being successful in such dip timing attempts.
We are now near the price of my last deposit, so it makes sense I continue with my accumulation using new fiat inputs but, of course, I try to maximise my probabilities of buying at the best price as much as I can.
Fair enough about that part, because ultimately, whatever strategy you employ needs to be comfortable for you and your perception of your own situation rather than how someone else might approach the matter.
I have always been extremely conservative in my investments and I can't change that.
Nothing wrong with being conservative, even though it is kind of a relative concept, too. Some people are so damned conservative that they don't even act at all. I think that there has been a decent argument for a long time to attempt to put at least 1% of your investment capital into BTC, and that could still be conservative, but we know that there are a very small number of people who have at least accomplished even a minimally prudent level, such as 1%, and part of that lack of action is likely due to either not really knowing about BTC or being scared by various mainstream misinformation talking points. Most people who are actively attempting to learn about BTC, including the vast majority of active participants in this thread, are likely investing at least 1% of their quasi-liquid investment into BTC.. so relative to this participants of this thread, "conservative" might mean something else.
I am obviously happy with my Bitcoin investment.
That's a good sign, and probably you are doing better than BlindRosenCact?
All of the above doesn't change my point that any plan which requires some ridiculously high price to work out has an extremely high probability of failure.
Seems to mean that you have not put enough into it, if you require 1000x (even 30x plus from here) returns, otherwise you cannot live happily ever after... hahahahahahaha
Or maybe it is just that your income is really tight, and you cannot squeeze any more out of it?
I know that there are differing incomes around the world, but there still can be ways to cut expenses during BTC accumulation period in order to not require such high returns in order to profit stupendously.
Ie: if someone thinks that Bitcoin is someday gonna cost $1 million and then he only needs a couple Bitcoins is probably going to end very frustrated. Similarly with $160000, $100000 or maybe even $50000.
Probably, we agree about this, and certainly, the lower the amount, the more reasonable the expectation, and personally, I don't expect those large numbers, even though I feel that I am somewhat prepared for them. My ongoing goal seems to be that I just want bitcoin to be worth more tomorrow than it is today, so I try NOT to set my expectations too high, and surely, I am going to be able to continue to cash out of bitcoin in the years to come as long as the price does not drop. The higher it goes, the more icing there is going to be on the cake.
Right now, my particular icing is only in about the 4x-ish territory.. and I can live with that, even though I continue to believe that there are decent odds that the price of Bitcoin is going up from here.. and maybe it only goes to $5k.. which would be disappointing, but surely not the end of the world, because I am likely going to continue to be able to at least maintain a similar kind of profit level of 4x or so, based on the equity that I have already built up... ..
surely worse scenarios (that seem less likely) are that BTC prices are going down from here, long term, rather than up... so yeah, there is some gambling involved with continuing to invest in bitcoin rather than just cashing out and locking in profits at their current levels.
So my conclusion is... yes, Bitcoin is probably going to be worth much more than now in the future but, instead of thinking the price rise alone will get you to moon, it is easier to try increment your stash up to the point you only need a "reasonable" price increase to reach your "moon".
Actually, I think that is the right way of thinking about the whole matter. Moon will come at a much lower personalized level the more BTC that you are able to accumulate.
There is also another point there regarding stages of your own personal investment. First stage is accumulate, second stage is maintain and third stage is cash out, and even though there is a kind of natural progression, the stages do not need to be considered as pure and for example, a person can employ accumulation and cashing out of BTC, even while considering himself/herself to largely be in a maintenance stage. And the more a person is "in profits," the easier it is to be flexible with whatever s/he is then doing.
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