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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21291043 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
xhomerx10
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December 13, 2018, 01:57:36 AM
Merited by dandannn (2)

What's the rationale behind the Bitcorn halving by the way? Why not some sort of continuous curve that converges to zero?

To give us a wee thrill to look forward to every few years?

Perhaps Satoshi was a shameless showman after all. Everyone loves a cliffhanger.

I'd rather be poor and have a full head of hair than be rich and bald

At the age of 43 or whatever I am mine's just starting to fray.

I wouldn't mind at all if it was turning into a widow's peak, that's a good look, but mine's only going directly in the centre of the forehead which looks fucking awful so I'm going to wind up looking like the victim of a driveby lobotomy.

Weird how just a few square cm on one portion of your skull turns you from someone normal-looking to a drooling goon.

Had to shave my head for years and im not even 30 yet, the only person who really gives a shit about your hair is you. If that doesn't make you feel better - you can always get xHomerx10 to make you a hat

 It's as though you read my mind.

 

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d_eddie
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December 13, 2018, 02:03:55 AM

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).
The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.
gentlemand
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December 13, 2018, 02:06:44 AM
Merited by Majormax (1)

The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

Sadly as it stands I think it's the opposite.

They're used to paper.  Everything they do is built around it. The futures are provided by names they trust, unlike the physical options. Like most people here they're only after more dollars but at least they're happy to admit it.

They'll have to be dragged into thinking physical is to their benefit. It's alien to how they operate.

There would need to be an army of non traditional finance believers and players to take command of the price via physical options for them to pay attention.
bitserve
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December 13, 2018, 02:10:07 AM

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).
The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

Hmmm, not so sure about that... Why would they?

As I see it they only care about ROI, that's why derivatives are so incredibly popular. The last thing most fund managers would want is additional overhead/liabilities like dealing with custody, etc...

d_eddie
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December 13, 2018, 02:11:57 AM

The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

Sadly as it stands I think it's the opposite.

Like most people here they're only after more dollars
So all it boils down to is adoption? Meaning they're after what is perceived as "real" money.

Quote
There would need to be an army of non traditional finance believers and players to take command of the price via physical options for them to pay attention.
Right, I see. Adoption at least at the financial level.

EDIT
Hmmm, not so sure about that... Why would they?
OK OK I got it  Undecided
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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December 13, 2018, 02:13:55 AM

An attempt at an alternative explanation, with a final question of my own.


Seems to me that you have to buy BTC in order to sell them,

aren't the shorts going to get reckt as some point if people are not willing to sell their BTC and there is not enough BTC to fuel the various contracts that are settled in dollars?

Nope, you don't need to do anything with the underlying (bitcoin) in order to buy/sell futures, which settle in cash (not bitcoin).

I guess that I don't understand then.

I don't see how you can get the price to go down without selling and no one willing to buy at that price, so the price goes lower and lower, until someone is willing to buy BTC at that price.  

Doesn't matter if you are settling in dollars, you still have to sell BTC to get the BTC price do go down and have no buyers.
Indeed, we know the actual volume of futures is small if compared to the underlying (actual btc) market. However, sometimes you only have to nudge things a bit to make them move. Besides, there is leverage, which can make money use more effective.

If you always want to push the same way (for example: down), you will eventually need to recharge; but not as much as the whole market moved (the whole Archimedean buoyant force, so to say) - just a fraction. And you can do it OTC - disturbing the market as little as possible, and deferring/spreading the effect.

One thing I don't understand and I hope someone can help me with: why the asymmetry between shorting and longing? If money on one side (short) implies the same sum is on the other (long), intuition tells me the situation should be symmetrical. Intuition can be wrong, though. So why is it said that whales prefer shorting. Is it easier? Does it pay out better, or what is it?

My sense, regarding shorting, has been that the cascading effect of forcing longs to close remains greater because it causes those longs to have to sell BTC into an already falling market.

The forcing of shorts to close, on the other hand, causes the same selling of BTC however, that selling is happening into a price rising market, which dampens the market momentum rather than exacerbating it.
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December 13, 2018, 02:18:50 AM

There is a theme being propagated on interwebs that bitcoin will never be able to get from under negative price pressure from CME/CBOE futures (which are cash-settled). Apparently, it happened multiple times before with other commodities.

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

(snip)

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

The question also deserves a (WO)sMerit.

Done
gembitz
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December 13, 2018, 02:19:04 AM



 Cool


weeeeeee
d_eddie
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December 13, 2018, 02:19:37 AM

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debit cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.
gembitz
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December 13, 2018, 02:22:09 AM

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

darkweb? lol Smiley =drugs , guns & illegal gambling ?
d_eddie
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December 13, 2018, 02:23:04 AM

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

darkweb? lol Smiley =drugs , guns & illegal gambling ?
I was thinking more like Amazon. Choo.
bitserve
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December 13, 2018, 02:24:35 AM

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

That's a complex issue. Debit cards are for sure something WE want, for many reasons... But I don't think that's the right path towards ADOPTION.
HairyMaclairy
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December 13, 2018, 02:24:43 AM

There is an excellent article which I read which explains why odds are stacked against shorts in the long run.  Shorting is always a short term play.  I am going to try to find it.  
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December 13, 2018, 02:26:41 AM

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

That's a complex issue. Debit cards are for sure something WE want, for many reasons... But I don't think that's the right path towards ADOPTION.
Interested. Care to elaborate?
gentlemand
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December 13, 2018, 02:28:42 AM

I was thinking more like Amazon. Choo.

Retail's a dead end. If it is ever to be a major thing it'll be the last thing to happen, not the driver of anything.

No one buys something to buy something. It's superb for merchants, fast settlement, no chargebacks, very unappetising for buyers who aren't already balls deep. Merchants couldn't afford the discounts necessary to move enough people. To spend it people need to already be in for other reasons.

Savings, independence, neutrality, portability. That's the type of thing that inspires people to get involved.

xhomerx10
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December 13, 2018, 02:30:02 AM

Truth as life itself.

when low

8K: "Will buy at $6K"
$6K: "Will buy at $3K"
$3K: "Will buy at $1.5K"

when up

$6K: "Will buy at $3K"
$8K: "Will buy at $6K"
$14K: "Will buy at $8K"
$20K: "Will buy at $14K"
 

This is so true LOL!!!

 When moon



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bitserve
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December 13, 2018, 02:31:35 AM

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

That's a complex issue. Debit cards are for sure something WE want, for many reasons... But I don't think that's the right path towards ADOPTION.
Interested. Care to elaborate?

We want them because we are currently storing value on BTC. So it is natural we want more ways to spend it. Debit cards are convenient of course. But why someone that doesn't have Bitcoin in first instance would want to have it for the only reason that they could spend it using debit cards? It makes no sense when they can already use cards with their FIAT.

So, the reasons for making people adopt Bitcoin as a store of value or as a payment must be elsewhere not in something they already have.
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December 13, 2018, 02:32:36 AM

Good evening WO crypto posse!
I’ve been road tripping across the United States this past week, and I’ve gotta say, it’s recharging the HODLbatteries nicely  Grin

I am, however, downright sick and tired of this bear market, as I’m sure many of you all are as well. This road trip is nice and all, but I’m mentally ready for the lambos and seasteads and international travel. *sigh*

Ok, I need to take some deep breaths and muster up some patience.

Combined order books look like up is more likely than down, but what do I know? lol

 Cheesy
bitserve
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December 13, 2018, 02:46:29 AM

Good Evening Binary!

Yeah, the crypto market sucks lately, but at least you're enjoying your time and come back fully recharged.


Try not to think much about the price and just enjoy! Better times will come (I hope!).
gembitz
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December 13, 2018, 02:46:39 AM

Truth as life itself.

when low

8K: "Will buy at $6K"
$6K: "Will buy at $3K"
$3K: "Will buy at $1.5K"

when up

$6K: "Will buy at $3K"
$8K: "Will buy at $6K"
$14K: "Will buy at $8K"
$20K: "Will buy at $14K"
 

This is so true LOL!!!

 When moon



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 Cool

#brah
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