Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

LET IT BE

That is nearly ridiculous logic that you are citing there, mic.  Get your team to help you to see the light.

Recall that in September 2017 bitcoin was in the midst - and even tail end of a bull market, and currently bitcoin seems to be in a bear market, so the price dynamics, and therefore momentum, are much different.

[1714041913]

1714041913

[Biodom]

Strange, did GDAX run out of BTC?  Sell side only showing 150BTC to over 7k USD.   Maybe it's the coinbase inside traders that have been dumping and now caught low on ammo.

Clearly, regardless of price, as time goes on more and more BTC goes out of circulation.

Eventually there will be no BTC left. Only bid side in (unlimited supply) USD. Divide by zero error means price will be infinity.

You will be able to buy the whole universe with just one BTC.

Well, there would be 10^500 -21000000 Universes still ready for the picking with progressively miniscule alts, I suppose.
Prices would decrease, I gather, so just wait until then (best prices)  

[VB1001]

Only good news, fine, we keep forward >>>

Bitcoin Payment Processor OpenNode Gets $1.25M From Investors

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/bitcoin-payment-processor-opennode-gets-125m-from-investors-cm1071687

[JayJuanGee]

Last bear market was there talk along the lines of 'the bottom won't be in till all the altcoins are utterly rekt'?

I understand that you seem to be asking a rhetorical question, but I will answer anyhow, and that answer is:  No. 

So, it raises a decent point about whether such altcoin reckoning is a necessary condition precedent before BTC prices can rise or not?    Seems to me that the answer to my revised question is no, also, even though BTC price dynamics would likely be on stronger grounds for greater upwards movement with such shit coin shakening.... but also seems to wishful to hope for such to occur because the world does not tend to play out with such purism and clarity.   

[Biodom]

Last bear market was there talk along the lines of 'the bottom won't be in till all the altcoins are utterly rekt'?

I understand that you seem to be asking a rhetorical question, but I will answer anyhow, and that answer is:  No. 

So, it raises a decent point about whether such altcoin reckoning is a necessary condition precedent before BTC prices can rise or not?    Seems to me that the answer to my revised question is no, also, even though BTC price dynamics would likely be on stronger grounds for greater upwards movement with such shit coin shakening.... but also seems to wishful to hope for such to occur because the world does not tend to play out with such purism and clarity.   

This time around there would not be complete altcoin reckoning as long as there are funds with low cost basis in those as long as those funds have some positive fiat cash flows.
Some of those funds are highly concentrated in a particular alt (or a small group of them), hence they would defend their initial position(s).

[El duderino_]

WoW , you is saying ..... i am a donkey ?

Yes. Not sure who is Shrek, maybe JJG: "Get the fuck outta my swamp with your altcoins".

so who is the gingerbread man??

[JayJuanGee]

At the actual 2013 peak there were only 40-50 alts in total. XRP and LTC are the only ones still relevant. LTC managed a 98/99% fall. Can't be bothered to think about XRP.

Yeah, alts weren't a thing back in. Whether they went up or down meant nothing.

I swear you are the human incarnation of Donkey.

WoW , you is saying ..... i am a donkey ?

Not a donkey -  "like a donkey."   

[goldkingcoiner]

I am going to guess we continue the pumperino to 4400 after a dumperino to 3980

Would that trigger your stop loss?

Stop loss is at 3855.

Selling at $321359387.21

[El duderino_]

LET IT BE

That is nearly ridiculous logic that you are citing there, mic.  Get your team to help you to see the light.

Recall that in September 2017 bitcoin was in the midst - and even tail end of a bull market, and currently bitcoin seems to be in a bear market, so the price dynamics, and therefore momentum, are much different.

international meeting tomorrow with all of my crew.... big punishment, gonna laid off a few etc all on you JJG
gonna recruit a whole new team, on much more attractive payroll just to make sure you are not annoyed @ any time.



by the way its thursday STFU JJG .........................

[JayJuanGee]

Are we starting to see people FOMO'ing?

Have no fucking idea. I am with my date tonight  and I am confused where should I concentrate more my btc or naked girl laying beside me.

Lets look at this mathematically:

0 BTC + 1 Naked Girl Now = 0 BTC + 1 Naked Girl Later (maybe)
X BTC + 0 Naked Girls Now = X/2 BTC + X² Naked Girls Later

The latter formula reduces itself to:

BTC=2XNG where X is the number of BTC now and NG is whatever it is.
perhaps second variable is needed.

You're right. We can make this a collaborative project.

On a long enough timeline, you inevitably run out of NG 's. Or inverse squared to the xxxx of BTC you have.  

When I was younger, perhaps 5 NG per day might be my outer limit - especially if going on for many days in a row.  However, these days, with more elderly me, probably my tolerance would only be 2-3 NG per day.  

Of course, I am talking mostly theoretical here, because I am sure that rotating NG (meaning new ones each time) would likely be quite more instinctually stimulating than repeatedly same NG (or a smaller selection of NGs).  

This is one of those topics that would be much better for me to take the hit for the WO inquirers here and to personally test, rather than hypothesize.  

[Toxic2040]

There definitely shaping up to be strong correlation with the 2013-2015 cycle as has been noted by many. Have to see how January plays out with taxes and potentially bakkt. A eerily close fit would be on or around Feb. 1st at $2.45k or so. followed with 7 to 8 months of sideways followed with a new Bullrun and ATH. That being said it seems support is strong at the estimated mining profitability range of $3.8k+

I personally think that it will be similar but not exactly the same and hopefully we have seen the bottom already. #dyor


In other news the monthly candle just wicked back to green.

Also the largest transfer of crypto has happened apparently.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-moves-5-billion-reports-largest-crypto-transfer-on-record

M

#stronghands2019

[Biodom]

Also the largest transfer of crypto has happened apparently.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-moves-5-billion-reports-largest-crypto-transfer-on-record

Those bastards got all that cash/crypto from all of us with their insane 1-1.5% fees.

[WastedLTC]

Also the largest transfer of crypto has happened apparently.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-moves-5-billion-reports-largest-crypto-transfer-on-record

Those bastards got all that cash/crypto from all of us with their insane 1-1.5% fees.

That was customer funds, not CB's own coins...

[ivomm]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-futures-contract-to-pay-out-in-bitcoin-poised-for-green-light-11545301801

According to the Wall Street Journal:

WASHINGTON—The first futures contract that will pay out in cryptocurrency rather than cash is expected to soon get regulatory approval.

“It’s great to have cash-settle, but there’s a need for physical delivery,” said Kelly Loeffler, CEO of Intercontinental Exchange’s crypto business, Bakkt.

Approval for the futures contract is currently being considered by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

CFTC laws require all US future contracts to be redeemable for dollars, securities or commodities, but it’s understood the commission will make an exemption to allow the Bitcoin futures contract to pay out in Bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

Ack! Just looked at the price 1 hour ago...now it is going down...damn it....it's all on me...Ack!

(just don't look, it is always a trap!)

Something to say for 'blissful ignorance' and don't look at BTC price for 5 years, just think of all the angst I would have

lessened in the last 1/2 year alone!

Well, at least you don't REALLY need to look at the price anymore... You have been able to retire early. You have already cashed out enough to carry you until you receive your state retirement, social benefits, plus private pension plan. You still have a stash bigger than most guys here.

You made it FFS!

Just stop always seeing the glass half empty and enjoy your well deserved retirement, bro!

Mostly I agree with you here, bitserve, and for sure, Searing needs a bit of kick in the pants and lecturing on a regular basis on the terms that you just did.

Regarding Searings actual circumstances, just to be more particular, he was in the 100 BTC-ish arena and then cashed out less than 15 BTC and some other stuff(s), and so it is quite likely that he is still in the 85 BTC-ish arena.

Regarding "making it,"  that surely can vary, and there is some relativeness to such considerations about how much of a BTC cushion is necessary to "make it".  For anyone just getting into BTC, getting to 1 BTC might be a difficult first goal, but any of us will need to start somewhere.  Then 2BTC, then 5BTC, then 10BTC, then 21BTC.  Maybe really making it would be to get to over 50 BTC.  I recall when I first started in late 2013, my goal was to get to 30BTC in the next 6 months to year, but I was not rigid with such aspirations because I knew that my ability to reach the goal was partly dependent upon what the BTC price would do in the subsequent months following my creation of such quasi-artificial and personally tailored (and likely moveable) interim goal.

[Kylapoiss]

Ack! Just looked at the price 1 hour ago...now it is going down...damn it....it's all on me...Ack!

(just don't look, it is always a trap!)

Something to say for 'blissful ignorance' and don't look at BTC price for 5 years, just think of all the angst I would have

lessened in the last 1/2 year alone!

Well, at least you don't REALLY need to look at the price anymore... You have been able to retire early. You have already cashed out enough to carry you until you receive your state retirement, social benefits, plus private pension plan. You still have a stash bigger than most guys here.

You made it FFS!

Just stop always seeing the glass half empty and enjoy your well deserved retirement, bro!

Mostly I agree with you here, bitserve, and for sure, Searing needs a bit of kick in the pants and lecturing on a regular basis on the terms that you just did.

Regarding Searings actual circumstances, just to be more particular, he was in the 100 BTC-ish arena and then cashed out less than 15 BTC and some other stuff(s), and so it is quite likely that he is still in the 85 BTC-ish arena.

Regarding "making it,"  that surely can vary, and there is some relativeness to such considerations about how much of a BTC cushion is necessary to "make it".  For anyone just getting into BTC, getting to 1 BTC might be a difficult first goal, but any of us will need to start somewhere.  Then 2BTC, then 5BTC, then 10BTC, then 21BTC.  Maybe really making it would be to get to over 50 BTC.  I recall when I first started in late 2013, my goal was to get to 30BTC in the next 6 months to year, but I was not rigid with such aspirations because I knew that my ability to reach the goal was partly dependent upon what the BTC price would do in the subsequent months following my creation of such quasi-artificial and personally tailored (and likely moveable) interim goal.

So you have around 21 BTC? You should accumulate some more. Just sayin'.

[d_eddie]

3855 is my close.... Don't do this to me, bitcocain.

Cash it out and smile man!   Good trading is several good shots and a few bad ones, not a single big hit. And you know already don't you. Maybe as a compromise, you can cut your stake into half as soon as you feel you're green enough to be happy. Set goals in advance and mostly stick to them.

It pays out financially, and not only that - m0glie's got a point.

Holding is much more simple than trading IMO.

Health matters too. Hanging there on 80x must be recklessly fatiguing. I know rebalancing several position over time changing price stretches is tedious work. Do you use any automated tools?

Lately, I've been suffering and working on my positions a bit too. A clean exit might be in sight now, if things develop as they appear to be going to. I wish you manage to do the same.

[kurious]

Hey JJG, it's Thursday.

[El duderino_]

Hey JJG, it's Thursday.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg48790997#msg48790997

[JayJuanGee]

Ack! Just looked at the price 1 hour ago...now it is going down...damn it....it's all on me...Ack!

(just don't look, it is always a trap!)

Something to say for 'blissful ignorance' and don't look at BTC price for 5 years, just think of all the angst I would have

lessened in the last 1/2 year alone!

Well, at least you don't REALLY need to look at the price anymore... You have been able to retire early. You have already cashed out enough to carry you until you receive your state retirement, social benefits, plus private pension plan. You still have a stash bigger than most guys here.

You made it FFS!

Just stop always seeing the glass half empty and enjoy your well deserved retirement, bro!

Mostly I agree with you here, bitserve, and for sure, Searing needs a bit of kick in the pants and lecturing on a regular basis on the terms that you just did.

Regarding Searings actual circumstances, just to be more particular, he was in the 100 BTC-ish arena and then cashed out less than 15 BTC and some other stuff(s), and so it is quite likely that he is still in the 85 BTC-ish arena.

Regarding "making it,"  that surely can vary, and there is some relativeness to such considerations about how much of a BTC cushion is necessary to "make it".  For anyone just getting into BTC, getting to 1 BTC might be a difficult first goal, but any of us will need to start somewhere.  Then 2BTC, then 5BTC, then 10BTC, then 21BTC.  Maybe really making it would be to get to over 50 BTC.  I recall when I first started in late 2013, my goal was to get to 30BTC in the next 6 months to year, but I was not rigid with such aspirations because I knew that my ability to reach the goal was partly dependent upon what the BTC price would do in the subsequent months following my creation of such quasi-artificial and personally tailored (and likely moveable) interim goal.

So you have around 21 BTC? You should accumulate some more. Just sayin'.

Remember fight club rules, and maybe I deviated a bit too much from fight club rules?

Anyhow, if a person creates a goal and then reaches the goal, such as 21 BTC, there may also be a need to surpass such goal, maybe by 50% or so, in order to have flexibility and a likely ability to maintain such goal (and the goal amount might become a kind of cold storage amount) but it still can be used and leveraged, of course, depending on  personal prudences and practices.   

Some guys and gal, will not have any kombunction to sell a decently large portion of their stash, including depleting their goal amount upon certain reached price points, and I don't really have a problem with that because I can understand that the goal stash amount might (and probably) should be downward adjusted at certain BTC price points.. so now there could be considerations of accomplishing such downward adjustments at $10k, $30k, $50k, $100k, etc. 

These price points and the values that seem prudent or reasonable are going to vary from person to person at least based on cashflow, other investments, risk tolerance, view of bitcoin and timeline.