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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21292028 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
jbreher
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January 05, 2019, 10:57:07 PM

Try tracking a 50-channel DAW session at 24-bit/96kHz though top-flight conversion (e.g., Apogee), with all the plugins needed for a good mix, on your Androne, and let me know how it goes.

why would you bother doing that on a phone. i would think at that point you would have easy access to dedicated equipment.

Took the words out of my mouth. Any real computing, I do on a real Win7 Laptop (HP Probook450 with i7-6500U, 16gbDDR3, 500GB M-2 MVMe boot SSD, additional 1tb sata storage SSD,etc). Runs circles around any silly little phone.

Agreed. If nothing else, the tiny touchscreen makes a limiting interface for serious work. But the point is that the HW and OS can handle it. Mostly, I am just challenging your assertion regarding apple products being subpar.

Plus, a CME XKey and Korg Module running on the thing you have with you always anyhow makes for a great little always-at-hand musical instrument.

Oh - I'm guessing you meant NVMe above?

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Sorry if  the price follows me south again.

Let's hope not. If it tanks again, I'm gonna start to wonder...
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jbreher
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January 05, 2019, 10:57:51 PM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

4 years? Maybe 80-85%
Last of the V8s
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January 05, 2019, 11:00:50 PM

(which is slightly more expensive btw)
Fella getting a new (Icelandic) pied-à-terre

Looks like it'll hold its value just fine.

Er (sheepishly) I actually have one of those in Iceland. Made of wood and not much bigger than that, but in a little better state of repair.  Iceland is a rather amazing place.  I can't recommend it enough. Skál!
How splendid. Have you mentioned it before? I thought I knew you had one now you bring it up, but maybe it's just drink-addled déjà vu on my part.
Skál!
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January 05, 2019, 11:02:42 PM

^It's unhealthy for you bugmen and cucks to pretend you have or deserve some type of power in the world to exert your will over others.  You're SJWs praying to rip people off in imaginary, valueless token pump and dump scams while pretending to be some type of virtuous crusaders of humanity.  You're lucky I don't make this demonic alien baby picture the official bitcoin trademark icon to remind you how big of hypocritical dirtbags you are:



Its unhealthy for you to keep eating the estrogen cookies we pay your mummy to bring downstairs to you. Grin

Virgin Roach, you offer nothing of value to humanity and never have.

You fear the biggest question of all. You hate all races but white, but why do all white males and females despise you. Shocked

The answer is you hate humanity and you hate your life. This is why humanity shuns you like the dirty little cockroach you named yourself after.  Cry

Even mummy resents you for wasting your life and making crazy faces all day at her while you rant.

Bitcoin is headed to 100k and it is driving you more insane each day bc you sold in 2015.

Your Silver bags were just another long list of your life failures.
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January 05, 2019, 11:15:00 PM


Agreed, you never use plugins to record, only to mix.  If you record with them, you can't undo it.  Plug-ins are purely for the mix / post-production.

And if the pre-amp/ mics are good, a laptop is perfectly fine for tracking excellent audio, I would not think twice - the data rate is minimal. The room is far more important than the computer it's tracked on.  As for 96K? Why bother? It makes it way more cumbersome (at least 4 times the file size), but IMHO is pointless since no one can hear the difference. Except maybe dogs.



ADC ??
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January 05, 2019, 11:16:57 PM

This is the future of your dystopian, non-fungible, centralized, permissioned ledger, digital token system.

Coinbase Bans Conservative Social Media Network Gab, Again

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-04/coinbase-bans-conservative-social-media-network-gabagain

First Kikebase bans sites like this for allowing free speech, then the govt regulates the mining pools and giant mining facilities with black lists, and you're now living in hell.

 Grin Once again Virgin Dumb Money Roach you illustrate why Bitcoin is the best money ever and headed to 100k while primitive metals are dead money investments.

Gab was banned by every payment processor like dailytarder was and they resorted to using the best money ever for funding.

https://bitcoinist.com/free-speech-money-gab-bitcoin/

Gab has proclaimed Bitcoin to be free speech money and will educate a million strong users on the superiority of Bitcoin over primitive silver and all other money.

Even your fellow racists will all be Bitcoiners soon, just like everyone wears shoes and uses cell phones. Bitcoin adoption will penetrate every part of humanity.

Bitcoin is heading to 100k and silver is going nowhere Cheesy
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January 05, 2019, 11:18:29 PM


 • the ongoing consolidation of defining crypto as property by regulatory authorities
 • the emergence of the new Google for cryptocurrency networks, known as "Cointracker" and the algos it uses calculate tax. (It was in fact built by ex-Google engineers)
 • the market movements of the last year - in particular the huge alt ratios that encouraged intense coin-to-coin trading at the precise moment when the bitcoin/fiat valuations were at an all time high

What is the significance of defining crypto as "property" (say, as opposed to "currency"). Basically is means that any exit from an address is considered a disposal rather than an expenditure. This is profoundbecause in the event of a cryptocurrency audit (either on an individual or organisation), "partial" information always favours the regulatory authority. For example, lets say:

 • you have a partial trading history which you provide during an audit.....

When that's analysed, a bottom line for your portfolio holdings will emerge (which will be wrong). If that "calculated" portfolio says we have more bitcoin than you actually have, then we'll simply be taxed on the "disposal". i.e. they've got you either way - either you can account for the location of funds or you simply end up with a huge tax bill.

 • off-exchange trading/expenditure

Same thing here. It ends up in the interest of holders to disclose all incidental exchanges of crypto for other crypto or for anything in fact, because any address that's identified as being owned by a certain party at any point in time, if later found to be "emptied" is a juicy candidate for taxation.

Nor are "obfuscated chains" any use. They will simply be regarded as "disposals". (i.e. any purchase of a "privacy coin" will be seen as a disposal and taxed accordingly).

This is already happening. The UK for example just issued unambiguous guidelines 1 month prior to this years filing deadline, so everybody that's short has to liquidate at the bottom of the market to pay tax on Jan 2018 prices. Pretty deadly !


'Deadly' is an understatement.  I just spent 3 days carefully pumping years of data into Cointracker and it has left me in horror.  Apparently I am liable for more than I took out by a large amount of money, as it says I made such huge 'profits' from trading in the 17/18 tax year that if I use this software to declare it, it will render me effectively destitute. 

Every trade between those old Bitcoins and a certain alt that I bought for pennies show up in trades in late 2017 as huge (yet never actually realised) profits which were calculated AT THAT TIME.  What I took out was life changing, but the tax amount I now appear to owe (so this software says) exceeds both my actual real fiat gains AND most of my remaining now 'lower-valued' stash. 

I really was content to pay my dues on the gains, now I am forced to re-think. If you're about to submit a tax return: seriously - take care?  It's the value at the time of the trade they're after, not what you have made in fiat.  Which is patently unfair - since if it was just trading between BTC and frothy alts and not cash, it was quite genuinely not realised and has of course gone down in value hugely since December.

Trading Hodlers:  BEWARE if your jurisdiction accounts like this.
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January 05, 2019, 11:33:38 PM

wtf, more and more people are arguing with roach. at least stop quoting him or risk getting ignored by the rest of us WO's.

^^^ Please.
This place can be vaguely entertaining and informative when the drivel is removed.

Yes. A high % of drivel here atm.

Although roach is bigoted and some of his theories are wild, a lot of the replies are pointless ad hominem attacks.. To an impartial observer who has no opinion to start with,  roach's posts might have a semblance of logic.

Is this akin to the de-platforming of extremist views ? Should free speech be aired in order to debate both the wrong and the right ideas ?

If posters really must reply, at least engage with the points made, or ignore.

Optimistically, a high % of nonsense posts could (maybe) indicate we are in the bottom-forming phase.
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January 05, 2019, 11:36:53 PM
Merited by Globb0 (2)

(which is slightly more expensive btw)
Fella getting a new (Icelandic) pied-à-terre

Looks like it'll hold its value just fine.

Er (sheepishly) I actually have one of those in Iceland. Made of wood and not much bigger than that, but in a little better state of repair.  Iceland is a rather amazing place.  I can't recommend it enough. Skál!
How splendid. Have you mentioned it before? I thought I knew you had one now you bring it up, but maybe it's just drink-addled déjà vu on my part.
Skál!

I have mentioned Iceland before, but not gone on about it or my little place.  I first went there in 2005 and just adored it, been at least twice a year since.  You are not remiss, Sir - no one can possibly remember every post in here.

At risk of opsec failure:
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January 05, 2019, 11:47:25 PM
Last edit: January 05, 2019, 11:58:57 PM by micgoossens

Haiku? OK.

Cold paper wallets
Nothing to do except wait
Oh thank you Bitcoin

very cool, merited.

WO for BTC posting
lines and pages to fill
meh r0ach GTFOH !!!

??

just home tried with all my will to figure out what this haiku is
and saw the very generous send by MARCUS
actually one of the WO og's i haven't had to honour of interacting with till a few pages back......, 
thanks very much, sorry i cannot keep them for long (the Smerits) but i will surely send them to ONLY coiners as usual
still thank you for the BIG send, its  much appreciated ( still really like to have some AMMO to spread )

btw when i saw on my phone will going home thought i was OVERhammered for a moment Roll Eyes

but still see you whiteout that XhomerX HAT Tongue  why? thought it was a cool one Wink


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January 05, 2019, 11:51:26 PM
Last edit: January 06, 2019, 12:05:48 AM by kurious


Agreed, you never use plugins to record, only to mix.  If you record with them, you can't undo it.  Plug-ins are purely for the mix / post-production.

And if the pre-amp/ mics are good, a laptop is perfectly fine for tracking excellent audio, I would not think twice - the data rate is minimal. The room is far more important than the computer it's tracked on.  As for 96K? Why bother? It makes it way more cumbersome (at least 4 times the file size), but IMHO is pointless since no one can hear the difference. Except maybe dogs.



ADC ??

If you mean Analogue to Digital, then decent hardware to convert signal is essential, I was being lazy by saying 'pre-amp'. These days it's in the hardware interface.  I have Apogee stuff, but it's not as good as its price suggests, failure over a pretty short use-time means I have moved on, I quite like a Focusrite and use Logic (and a little Mac mini, or laptop on the road).  But yes, of course.  I agree I wouldn't use a phone if I was expecting someone to add performance to an existing track.  I mean: how?!
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January 06, 2019, 12:00:07 AM

Try tracking a 50-channel DAW session at 24-bit/96kHz though top-flight conversion (e.g., Apogee), with all the plugins needed for a good mix, on your Androne, and let me know how it goes.

why would you bother doing that on a phone. i would think at that point you would have easy access to dedicated equipment.

Took the words out of my mouth. Any real computing, I do on a real Win7 Laptop (HP Probook450 with i7-6500U, 16gbDDR3, 500GB M-2 MVMe boot SSD, additional 1tb sata storage SSD,etc). Runs circles around any silly little phone.
And, I add, recording a 50-track session with several plugins inserted isn't even a task I would trust to a laptop, unless it was just a fun thing. 50 channels of Apogee and you don't have a dedicated desktop machine? Come on.

By the way, do you need all those plugins just to track? How about the latency?

Answered upthread. Yes, I have HW more suited to the task. But it's not in my pocket 'round the clock.

The point is, a recent iPhone -- maligned in the post to which I was replying as 'Apple, therefore inferior' -- is up to the task.

If your laptop can't handle a 50-track session, that's an awfully limited laptop by today's standards. The laptop I recently demoted after 6 (yes six) years of nonstop service as my do-everything machine had no problem with handling such a load. With negligible latency.
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January 06, 2019, 12:12:52 AM

If your laptop can't handle a 50-track session, that's an awfully limited laptop by today's standards. The laptop I recently demoted after 6 (yes six) years of nonstop service as my do-everything machine had no problem with handling such a load. With negligible latency.

I can't argue with that, some of the best I know do the lot on a Macbook by default. 

96K though?  Hmm... 
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January 06, 2019, 01:11:09 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

4 years? Maybe 80-85%

Good honest opinion. It is also in line with my thinking.

I understand some people say 100% (or over, lol)  as in it is the most probable outcome and they would be surprised if it wouldn't happen... but that's not how probabilities work. Otherwise someone would just sell all he owns and even what doesn't and go all in... which is a very risk thing to do unless it was really 100% probability/guarantee... which obviously is not nor can be.

Bitcoin has a favorable enough positive asymmetric probability without needing to exaggerate the percentages.

I guess you also would give a probability of around 10-25% to $100K in the next 4/5 years? And maybe another 10-20% of never (in a reasonable timeframe ie 10 years) recovering its last ATH? Which is still a fucking good asymmetric probability....

bones261
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January 06, 2019, 01:18:21 AM

    So, I wasn't able to visit with my family for the holidays. We exchanged gifts, today. Look what my sister gave to me.



Should I eat them, or HODL?
micgoossens
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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January 06, 2019, 01:21:52 AM
Merited by bones261 (1)

    So, I wasn't able to visit with my family for the holidays. We exchanged gifts, today. Look what my sister gave to me.



Should I eat them, or HODL?

chocolate will never taste as good as those (maybe belgium chocolate, but not thinking of that.....)

have fun man

i'm already getting a bit of sober up before hitting the HODLsleep......
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January 06, 2019, 01:23:19 AM
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   So, I wasn't able to visit with my family for the holidays. We exchanged gifts, today. Look what my sister gave to me.



Should I eat them, or HODL?

HODL as a hedge. If Bitcoin were to fail those "coins" would probably never produced anymore and become a collection item. OTOH, if it succeesds the market will be flooded with them.

Looks a "perfect" hedge to me Smiley
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January 06, 2019, 01:23:46 AM
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Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

4 years? Maybe 80-85%

Good honest opinion. It is also in line with my thinking.

I understand some people say 100% (or over, lol)  as in it is the most probable outcome and they would be surprised if it wouldn't happen... but that's not how probabilities work. Otherwise someone would just sell all he owns and even what doesn't and go all in... which is a very risk thing to do unless it was really 100% probability/guarantee... which obviously is not nor can be.

Bitcoin has a favorable enough positive asymmetric probability without needing to exaggerate the percentages.

I guess you also would give a probability of around 10-25% to $100K in the next 4/5 years?

There's another halving in that timeframe. I'd say more like 75-80%. Not to say that it would stay there, but I think the next blowoff top will likely be well over $100K.

Quote
And maybe another 10-20% of never (in a reasonable timeframe ie 10 years) recovering its last ATH?

Maybe 5-10%

Quote
Which is still a fucking good asymmetric probability....

::wink::
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January 06, 2019, 01:31:01 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

4 years? Maybe 80-85%

Good honest opinion. It is also in line with my thinking.

I understand some people say 100% (or over, lol)  as in it is the most probable outcome and they would be surprised if it wouldn't happen... but that's not how probabilities work. Otherwise someone would just sell all he owns and even what doesn't and go all in... which is a very risk thing to do unless it was really 100% probability/guarantee... which obviously is not nor can be.

Bitcoin has a favorable enough positive asymmetric probability without needing to exaggerate the percentages.

I guess you also would give a probability of around 10-25% to $100K in the next 4/5 years? And maybe another 10-20% of never (in a reasonable timeframe ie 10 years) recovering its last ATH? Which is still a fucking good asymmetric probability....



but the %'s are just a speculative thought.... like I know if I buy a let us say classic oldtimer car with only 15000km
and pay 45000€ for it just keep it for a 4 years, and still know to make 20000€ minimum profit on it
so would I buy it and keep it, yes why not its a sure thing its 100% but even in this case when its a sure thing it still can go wrong cause of many reasons, so yeah thats also not 100% cause just nothing is 100%
always the unexpected can happen, but the ODDS against it are just to big sometimes...... like the BTC story Cheesy

NOW WHEN 5 DIG, cause would hate that NR of 4 years  Roll Eyes
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January 06, 2019, 01:32:45 AM

   So, I wasn't able to visit with my family for the holidays. We exchanged gifts, today. Look what my sister gave to me.



Should I eat them, or HODL?

HODL as a hedge. If Bitcoin were to fail those "coins" would probably never produced anymore and become a collection item. OTOH, if it succeesds the market will be flooded with them.

Looks a "perfect" hedge to me Smiley

Sounds like a plan to me. I will transfer them to "cold storage."  However, what methods should I be using to make my refrigerator more secure?
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