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Question: Next Bubble Top (resulting in a new ATH):
Will never reach a new ATH - 7 (7.1%)
$20,000-$49,999 - 20 (20.4%)
$50,000-$99,999 - 24 (24.5%)
$100,000-$149,999 - 21 (21.4%)
$150,000-$199,999 - 8 (8.2%)
$200,000-$249,999 - 5 (5.1%)
$250,000-$299,999 - 1 (1%)
$300,000-$350,000 - 1 (1%)
>$350,000 - 11 (11.2%)
Total Voters: 98

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21502846 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (138 posts by 32 users deleted.)
bitserve
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January 14, 2019, 10:27:50 AM
Last edit: January 14, 2019, 10:52:53 AM by bitserve

Coming back from holidays I see nothing changed around here.
Bearish then  Smiley

Yup, very bearish.... maybe not in the short term, but we are not anywhere near a proper bull run it seems... As expected.

This is being so 2014-2015 that it is almost surprising.
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bitserve
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January 14, 2019, 10:51:07 AM



if you only had a window into price in $ and NOTHING else, it would be an insufficient info, obviously.
...

Yes...and $$ inflation highlights just one example in which the future price snapshot has little value.

Say also that you find out the price on date x would be $200. What action can you take right now ?

How can you know if the structure of BTC will be the same ? How can you know what fork can have happened, and whether consensus has changed the issuance of units ? What if the price was $20000 just  a few months after your chosen date, for unknown technical reasons ?

..and that is just the guesses we can make. How about the unknown unknowns ?

You're right in many respects of course, but I still think it would be well worth 10 BTC to know the price on a given date over two years ahead. Would you turn down the chance?

I would probably choose a not so far date (ie less than a year ahead) so I could go all in into longing/shorting. As majormax says, in the interim of long term many things can happen.

The price I would pay would depend on how much financial resources I would be sure I could allocate or raise to take advantage of the forecast and also taking into account that if the price on that specific date would be similar to current one it would be directly a loss of the paid price.
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January 14, 2019, 10:59:17 AM

Judging how many times last year bitcoin rebounded from 6K, I am convinced that 3K won't give up easily without fight. We may see some bear(s) try to bring it below 3K but even if they succeed it won't last long. And the halving is near, so no point in selling this year. As for me, I got some very good news today. A couple of weeks ago appeared a buyer for some inherited land. I expected the price max $2200, but today we agreed on the price $4200. It remains that some details for the deal to be legalized and in 3 days the money will be in my bank account. Then I will buy with all of it bitcoins, no matter the price. I already bought last month over 0.5BTC, so I don't mind this one year pseudo bear market (I know the whales want my bitcoins but I flip them off). Fingers crossed all goes well!  Grin
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January 14, 2019, 11:31:00 AM

Greedy bears wanna 1200-1500$, market will fuck them as usual

It all depends on who the identity is of the single entity operating on the fraudulent exchange Bitfinex that has controlled and rigged the price ever since it was $200.  If that entity turns out to be Bitmain and Bitmain goes bankrupt, then bitcoin would no longer have any upwards manipulation support and it could implode back towards where the extreme manipulation started from (hint:  it began at $200).  

If that entity turns out to be someone like Goldman Sachs or an ESF proxy, then I guess the artificial upwards manipulation and market rigging would continue as normal.  There is no debate on this issue whatsoever among people who have traded these markets for years and aren't complete idiots.  The market is controlled by a single entity who mainly rigs the price through Bitfinex, it's just a question of WHO the entity is.
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January 14, 2019, 11:46:27 AM

in mildly funny
https://news.8btc.com/antminer-in-china-particularly-attacked-by-virus-hant-for-btc-ransom
and
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2019/01/14/russia-plans-tackle-us-sanctions-bitcoin-investment-says-kremlin/
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 14, 2019, 11:54:51 AM
Last edit: January 14, 2019, 12:29:32 PM by vapourminer

I created http://www.seasteadtalk.org for discussion of seasteading.

i tried to register but got an error.

EDIT: nevermind tried again and got in.

for me, one aspect of a seastead is the isolation from supplies. living in the boonies i tend to have everything needed to survive for several weeks with absolutely no dependencies on the outside world. well within some practical limits. so i would have backups (sometimes several) of all critical infrastructure, tools and parts to repair most things along with a small machine shop, above average medical supplies, and overkill on monitoring equipment for environment and systems status. like, lots of stuff like that. i live in the boonies, and ive learned that if you dont have it with you, you dont have it period. simple enough thing but when the stores are a dozen miles or more away in rough seas for unknown period of time thats the same thing. so any seastead i design will be pretty big. living quarters would be a small part of it. command and control will be as redundant and as state of the art as i can make it, after all, when you get down to it this is a sea going vessel that my life will depend on. so costly for the specs that i am comfortable with, which are admittedly above specs a typical seasteader may have.

dont get me wrong, the isolation and self sufficiency is a good thing for me, but a lot of planning goes into that. its not just the base platform which worries me, you guys seems to have those problems licked. its the rest of it that i worry about. ive learned to only trust critical infrastructure that either i design and build, or is so well proven i can adapt off the shelf items for my use. i have no intention of getting into some life threaten situation that i could have avoided because i skimped on kit loadout.
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We care alot!


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January 14, 2019, 11:58:40 AM


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January 14, 2019, 12:07:08 PM


The Telegraph acting like CoinTelegraph. [sigh]
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January 14, 2019, 12:07:25 PM


It's still that one single nutter. No new sources at all. Has the mainstream press begun to get crypto press AIDS?
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January 14, 2019, 12:11:17 PM


If they would want to do this they would buy first and leak after. Putin is not retarded. Journalism these days ...  Cry
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January 14, 2019, 12:28:04 PM

Must be too many goyim buying gold and silver (which the bankers don't want) so they're trying to trick them into buying imaginary, valueless, digital shitcoins instead.
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January 14, 2019, 12:33:39 PM


If they would want to do this they would buy first and leak after. Putin is not retarded. Journalism these days ...  Cry

How do you know they haven’t been accumulating for months?
BobLawblaw
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January 14, 2019, 12:49:00 PM

Guys.

I hate to admit this.

I'm starting to get the fear.

Looking into my crystal ball, I see 2019 filled with nothing but continued languid misery.

I'm thinking of just tuning out for all of 2019 and devote it entirely to personal projects. (Continue to run my LND note, tho. Might just fund it some more...)

2018 really took a lot of wind out of my sails. Absolutely exhausting.  Undecided

Wish I could just put myself into a medically induced coma until some-time mid-2021.
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January 14, 2019, 12:52:36 PM
Last edit: January 14, 2019, 01:03:55 PM by m0gliE

Guys.

I hate to admit this.

I'm starting to get the fear.

Looking into my crystal ball, I see 2019 filled with nothing but continued languid misery.

I'm thinking of just tuning out for all of 2019 and devote it entirely to personal projects. (Continue to run my LND note, tho. Might just fund it some more...)

2018 really took a lot of wind out of my sails. Absolutely exhausting.  Undecided

Wish I could just put myself into a medically induced coma until some-time mid-2021.

Brace yourself because 2019 won't be much better.

Price will continue to go down. Projects won't go anywhere. Investments will be thin.

Next halving is in 2022, so expect a poor 2019 (but not as horrible as 2018), a somewhat good 2020, a great 2021 and an awesome 2022.

Halving means natural price increase, communication, easy FOMO and growth.


Forget me. It seems i'm tired and I say shit. It happens.

So, hands firm, don't shake and hold your breath for a bit. Better times ahead Wink

PS. What are you talking about funding your LND note?
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January 14, 2019, 01:00:20 PM

Next halving is in 2022, so expect a poor 2019 (but not as horrible as 2018), a somewhat good 2020, a great 2021 and an awesome 2022.

Halving means natural price increase, communication, easy FOMO and growth.

So, hands firm, don't shake and hold your breath for a bit. Better times ahead Wink

PS. What are you talking about funding your LND note?

No it isn’t
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January 14, 2019, 01:04:39 PM


I would probably choose a not so far date (ie less than a year ahead) so I could go all in into longing/shorting. As majormax says, in the interim of long term many things can happen.

Like a margin call.
Leverage out the yin-yang and then, the gods of the market lower the boom on your sorry ass.
Bye-bye, birdie!
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January 14, 2019, 01:04:58 PM
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No it isn’t

Thanks for pointing out that I'm a moron getting confused between halving dates and presidential elections dates.

Though it probably means I see halving as more important than presidential elections of my country...

Says a lot about my faith in BTC... Or politics!  Cheesy
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January 14, 2019, 01:10:50 PM


I would probably choose a not so far date (ie less than a year ahead) so I could go all in into longing/shorting. As majormax says, in the interim of long term many things can happen.

Like a margin call.
Leverage out the yin-yang and then, the gods of the market lower the boom on your sorry ass.
Bye-bye, birdie!
Indeed. Being able to peek at a future price point means little if we can't see the trajectory.
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January 14, 2019, 01:22:44 PM

PS. What are you talking about funding your LND note?

I currently run a "popular" LND node that I have personally funded with x BTC across numerous channels. I was thinking of adding additional funds to my node, and establishing some higher-funded channels, in addition to what I've already established.

Start screwing around with channel policies and routing fees, and other extremely esoteric lightning related crapolla.

Balancing channels is extremely unpleasant at present. Trying to gain a better understanding of it, and it's becoming clear to me there is not a simple way to handle it, given the current UX/UI.

The closest natural analog I can make to managing a busy LND node is dumping our your channel info, and manually start going through each channel - one-by-one - adjusting the policies, as if I was going through tending my garden for weeds, and plucking weaker plant shoots.

Very tedious.
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January 14, 2019, 01:37:58 PM


How do you know they haven’t been accumulating for months?

I don't but that would still make the news article wrong as its says Russia is going to buy, not has accumulated Wink

Either way the article is BS.
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