Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

Last year I was a millionaire (in dollars).

means that you had (or perhaps have?) more than 53 (in bitcoins)

hahaha, I like how you always like to make people recognise how many BTC they do have. As a penalty I will say my educated guess is that you have, with a high degree of certainty, an amount between 40 and 150 BTC. And, if I had to guess the exact amount, I would say around 60 right now... including alt/shitcoins and trading fiat.

Of course this is all just my own speculation with absolutely no factual resemblance to reality.

P.S.: I have less than that... and that is a FACT.

thats a guess on who of those 2?

[1713582715]

1713582715

[1713582715]

1713582715

[1713582715]

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[bitserve]

Last year I was a millionaire (in dollars).

means that you had (or perhaps have?) more than 53 (in bitcoins)

hahaha, I like how you always like to make people recognise how many BTC they do have. As a penalty I will say my educated guess is that you have, with a high degree of certainty, an amount between 40 and 150 BTC. And, if I had to guess the exact amount, I would say around 60 right now... including alt/shitcoins and trading fiat.

Of course this is all just my own speculation with absolutely no factual resemblance to reality.

P.S.: I have less than that... and that is a FACT.

thats a guess on who of those 2?

On JJG of course, because he is always trying to make other people say it


Again... I might be perfectly wrong. If I *really* knew it, I would say NOTHING.

[ðºÞæ]

when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you.

Yeah. Common misconception that a bullet travels just as fast on the way down as on the way up.

Then again, 230 grains with a BC of about 1/4 at terminal velocity would still be unpleasant.

Most probably not deadly at all plus the human density is pretty low in comparison to free space even in densely habited areas.

Parabolic arcs (ie 45 degrees) are way more dangerous... and still the above applies.

So far managed to evade all deadly rain and hail.

[jbreher]

^ It looks like Zappa.

Derek Smalls. Spinal Tap. Necessary cultural experience.

[jbreher]

Some pages may be sticky, but hey you only wanted the cover

I didn't realize it was a 'page three' kind of paper.

[jbreher]

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

[bitserve]

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

[D. Lerk]

Surprised that jbreher bought in, respected the guy.

Aww, now my feewings are hurt. Oh well, I gotta do me.

Welcome the the thread, D. Lurk.

Hi, thank you.

But NB, it's Lerk with an 'e'. The 'u's split from our, talkative, side of the family. We don't hear from them anymore. They never visit, they never write.

[Last of the V8s]

'ello, son. ty for the merit
'twas richly deserved and beautifully allocated

[D. Lerk]

Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC.

yeah once the silk road stack was auctioned by the government that was a big turning point. the government destroys seized evidence it considers illegal ie look at all the drugs destroyed by burning etc. by auctioning it i knew it was legit then.

dunno about you but back in the day when btc was a few bucks i threw it around like popcorn. just testing various wallets on different computers and to and from exchanges just to see how it worked. ive lost some coins by mistakes, some by forgetting about them. it was never a large percentage of course, but the amount ive lost would be worth a good amount today. but that was very early on when it was unknown if it would even survive.

if i had known what it would eventually be valued at i would of course been more careful, as i am now. back then in my wildest dreams i would never even of though it would hit 20k a coin. and i would of just laughed at anyone that said that. back in 2011-2012? pffft. coins were just things to play with.

EDIT: i mined my coins starting in 2011, didnt buy them. might be a reason i didnt value them much as i didnt pay money for them. just a byproduct of my gpus.

I doubted that it would survive. Money on the public internet?? Just asking for trouble. Surely the design couldn't have mitigated all attack vectors? I fully expected my Qt wallet to be emptied during the first few weeks.

I had a go mining, just to try and understand the process, but soon realised it was far more efficient for me just to buy them. We each have our part to play in this most elegant of systems.

[JayJuanGee]

Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.

I don't necessarily agree with Hairy's overlaying of the charts, and I remain of the opinion that we are in a bear market... yet I like to look at previous support levels, such as $6k in order to confirm that we are out of the bear market.  Therefore, there seems to remain a decent chance that down is easier than up, but it also does not preclude that a considerable amount of sideways and faking out might take place in the next several months, which seems to be the scenario that Hairy is most inclined towards, at the moment.

[Toxic2040]

Thanks for your TA's, one of the few people here who post on topic

+1 WOsMerit

Thank you for the acknowledgement and your welcome. You must have glossed over all my other sh*tposts however..   

Do you mean biology-based conspiracies or just biology as a general term?

lol'd

+1 WOsMerit

Yup, I'm in lurk mode last weeks 

+1 WOsMerit

A eyeball after my own heart.  My lurkiness tends to wax and wane with bitcoins price surprisingly..   

Bitcoin bottomed around 0400 hours GMT on 14 January 2015. 

We are now past that time in this cycle.  If the fractal holds, we have bottomed. 

I just bought again. 

+1 WOsMerit

Just be cautious of bias. I do not feel we have seen the last power plays of this year.

Basic strategy has been to view bitcoin as a far-out-of-the-money put on the dollar (as the reserve currency, the one with the most to lose) with no expiry. Whats not to like about that? Very little cost to hold compared to the potential upside.

Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC.

Sold about 3% in the 5-digits for treats, but not out of scale to general lifestyle.

Played a little with alts, missed ETH though (didn't like the too-slick build-up) now just XMR. Dumped the forks for one-sixth stash boost (thanks Roger). Thought BCH an obvious take-over attempt by the corps and China and would rather have sunk with the ship than be pwned by Jihan, the CCP and fvckin Calvin forcrissakes. Surprised that jbreher bought in, respected the guy.



edit: Hi Toxic2040, and thanks for the charts. I like that you present a range. 3 shades of grey, as it were.
edit: thanks Globb0, you can be a funny guy

+6 WOsMerit's

This is good insight that I agree is rarely mentioned. So much so that I kind of had a whoa moment thinking about it again. I vaguely remember being interested enough in the auction to actually try and figure out what the requirements of bidding would be. I think this was during the time when colored coins was a big(ger) debate and I was just too worried about taint to follow through however.

Your welcome. I am glad you enjoy my feeble ch-art attempts. I too am mostly interested in longer term trends that are shown on the weekly and dailies, but hope that "shorter" time frames can be of use to some.

[D. Lerk]

'ello, son. ty for the merit
'twas richly deserved and beautifully allocated

If you're thanking me for last night, the pleasure was all mine.

We never forget the first time.

If I've misunderstood, then I'm afraid you've misunderstood.

[JayJuanGee]

I've seen news articles too of (unintended) casualties from kalashnikovs being fired straight into the air in celebration in the middle east.

https://twitter.com/gissisim/status/1069343819081105408?lang=en

That is NOT an example of a gun shot into the air.  That is an example of bad grip.    

[infofront]

Worthwhile tweet storm:



https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1084848063947071488

[Toxic2040]

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

[Ibian]

i mainly carry a handgun in the woods and thats what i would be firing in the air as a warning shot for the wild dogs and such. and even though i know its miles of woods i think i will at least consider trying to fire into a tree from now on. its just habit to never, ever fire a round with no real target as if i miss the tree that bullet can go a long way. and while there should be no one in my woods.. still..

Fire in front of the dog.

that would have very good odds of seriously hurting it via ricochet/spall, and hurting it is worse than killing it.

i have no wish to harm any animal, much less kill it. if it looks ready to attack, fine, dead dog. but if its pondering the situation ("hmm.. is that thing good to eat?") scaring it off is fine by me. scaring and hurting it via spall so it suffers is not.

Well firing in the air has a chance of killing a human, even if a small one.

Look there is no polite solution to dangerous situations like that. Pick the one that has the least chance of harming humans, not other animals.

[JayJuanGee]

How can you say this



Source:

https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1085115366508883968

In a later tweet, CZ is clarifying that his tweet was meant as a kind of advertisement for BinanceDEX, which seems to be an exchange that does not yet exist (even though CZ has been talking about it for more than a year).

[Torque]

Worthwhile tweet storm:



https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1084848063947071488

Great tweet storm. If there's one thing I could tweet on that thread (can't, I don't do Twitter) is that :

*Before* a crypto can succeed as a worldwide payment system, it FIRST has to become a successful SoV.

Why?

Because you can't have a successful worldwide payment system without high liquidity. Period. And you can't have high liquidity without a high enough stable value, brought about by solid SoV as a core attribute first. On chain scalability is secondary to this (although LN completely solves that problem).

[bitserve]

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye