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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21291190 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
nutildah
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January 23, 2019, 04:43:25 PM


I once knew a person named Gaylord, and, oddly enough, they killed themselves.

But, not until age 64... Maybe they eventually had enough of it, who knows...

https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/latimes/obituary.aspx?n=gaylord-ellison&pid=1357763
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Hueristic
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January 23, 2019, 04:45:14 PM
Last edit: January 23, 2019, 05:03:29 PM by Hueristic

So you are stating that the child soldier in your example would be better off complaining than trying to figure out how to stay alive or find a way out of his current life?

I have been speaking in generalities but yes if that was his only outlet other than getting killed. I refer now you back to my original post, this is why speaking in absolutes is always wrong.
So you'd rather have people complain and die than having them trying to figure out steps to improve their life in whatever ways accessible to them. How is that supposed to ever accomplish anything?

Which part of "other than" did you not understand?

I have been speaking in generalities but yes if that was his only outlet other than getting killed. I refer now you back to my original post, this is why speaking in absolutes is always wrong.
Absolutely. Always.
+WO Smiley

General reminder to everyone that slavery has been abolished in our part of the world for hundreds of years.

General reminder that there are no criminals and everyone adheres to the law.

BobLawblaw
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January 23, 2019, 04:59:53 PM

It's hard for sinsemilla to spread her seed without losing sinsemilla status!  Grin
I had to think about this for a little while.
It was The Miraculous Sensemilla.
The Rastafarian version of the Immaculate Conception?

Exactamundo !
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January 23, 2019, 05:00:18 PM

jojo69
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no FOMO


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January 23, 2019, 05:00:51 PM


If said slave chooses to spend time that he could've used e.g. on devising an escape plan on complaining.

oh for fuck's sake    Roll Eyes
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January 23, 2019, 05:04:13 PM



I have no idea what whining and the lack of effort both of you keep talking about. It is probably something personal since you are so adamant about it.


Get a JOB Mr. Lebowski
Hueristic
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January 23, 2019, 05:08:01 PM

If said slave chooses to spend time that he could've used e.g. on devising an escape plan on complaining.

That's a joke right?  

We are talking about young girls who are chained to beds to work as prostitutes.  We are talking about kids on fishing trawlers in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.  We are talking about people who have been in North Korean concentration camps for two generations, whose entire family will be executed if they escape.  

Your opinion is they should not complain about their circumstances, and we as wealthy Westerners should not try to help them? 
We should not try to help them. We should keep them out of our country. We have enough problems to deal with. Some of them arguably more severe than theirs.

That really is the crux of the debate, should we help the guy on the other side of the street or put up a wall and ignore his plight. And I would postulate that your opinion on this depends on just what kind of a person you are.

“Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.”
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January 23, 2019, 05:11:13 PM
Merited by bones261 (1)

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January 23, 2019, 05:11:22 PM

If said slave chooses to spend time that he could've used e.g. on devising an escape plan on complaining.

That's a joke right?  

We are talking about young girls who are chained to beds to work as prostitutes.  We are talking about kids on fishing trawlers in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.  We are talking about people who have been in North Korean concentration camps for two generations, whose entire family will be executed if they escape.  

Your opinion is they should not complain about their circumstances, and we as wealthy Westerners should not try to help them?  
You keep pulling shit out of your ass and trying to shove it down my throat.

You act as if I had stated that considering helping them or actively (trying to) do so shouldn't be allowed, which is false. None of that crap has anything to do with the argument though.


Name me one example in which you will see strictly better results by complaining than by thinking up different potential solutions. You can't. Because complaining is a destructive force with a net effect that is either zero or negative.
Nobody is stopping you from helping others, and props to you if you're not just a hypocrite running your mouth and actually doing what you preach to others (which I doubt). But none of that has anything to do with the fact that energy invested in complaining is wasted energy.

Best case you will make people aware of a given problem, but if that was your goal there are vastly more efficient ways that won't cause other gullible people to just complain as well.


Simply denying they have a right to complain about their situation is detrimental to their cause. Deriding them is paramount to helping oppress them.

I may not agree with what you have to say but I will fight to the death for your right to say it.

But you should be aware of what repercussions your words may reap, if you are aware and still don't care then I will fail to listen although still acknowledge your right to speech. Even hate speech should be free although abhorrent, the problem is you can;t draw the line clearly, one mans hate is another mans reality.

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January 23, 2019, 05:12:32 PM
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I'm telling them to shut the fuck up and seek out incremental improvements in their own life-style.


No

You are telling those less fortunate than yourself that you are tired of hearing about their problems, that they should be silent and submissive in the face of oppression.  Do so at your peril.

Personally, I have found that nothing quite gets the attention of those in power like the smell of burning Mercedes upholstery.  

So beware of advising people to take concrete actions to improve their conditions rather than attempting it through dialog.

It has perhaps been too long since certain folks were reminded that the guillotine remains an option.
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January 23, 2019, 05:20:59 PM



I have no idea what whining and the lack of effort both of you keep talking about. It is probably something personal since you are so adamant about it.


Get a JOB Mr. Lebowski

Haha, what a scène of that marvelous movie

Btw i’m not me lebowski you’re me lebowski
I’m micgooss so that how you call me, that or his Micness or miccer or el Micgi’erino, if you’re not into the whole brevity thing
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January 23, 2019, 05:21:17 PM

Name me one example in which you will see strictly better results by complaining than by thinking up different potential solutions. You can't. Because complaining is a destructive force with a net effect that is either zero or negative.

What you call "complaining" I call advocacy.  And advocacy works.  We wouldn't have the UK modern slavery laws without advocacy.  

Making it illegal for Western companies to profit from slavery is highly effective, because the directors go directly to jail.  And guess what, company directors sit up in their chairs and pay attention when you say "if you don't do X, you will go to jail".   Then the directors tell their C-suite, "don't fuck up on X, or I will fire you without hesitation".  Those are real results, in real time.  

That is one you will see strictly better results by "complaining" rather than blaming the victim.  

Because what you are doing is blaming the slave for being a slave.  And that achieves nothing.  People like you avoid having to take responsibility for anything by always blaming the victim.  "If he wasn't such a dissident, he wouldn't have gone to Chinese prison camp".  
You keep ignoring one crucial thing. How does trying to get rid of slavery in shithole countries benefit us?

Discussing something is the opposite of "ignoring" it. Dismissing it it is exactly "ignoring" it.

NOW, tell me who is doing what here.

Ohh shit, 5 pages and I don't have time for this shit this morning. BBL to argue.

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January 23, 2019, 05:42:26 PM


Because of the easy on ramp, but don't they own Poloniex now, or circle group or something? is it easier than their own stuff?



Your thinking of Goldman Ballsacks.
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January 23, 2019, 05:43:00 PM

BTW, daily reminder in just 30 years, only 8 BTC will be mined every day (currently ~1900)
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yes


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January 23, 2019, 05:47:48 PM
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Interesting read: “Quantum Narratives” by Dan Held https://link.medium.com/0lIe5QiyIT
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January 23, 2019, 05:54:17 PM

BTW, daily reminder in just 30 years, only 8 BTC will be mined every day (currently ~1900)

Incredible  Shocked
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January 23, 2019, 06:00:30 PM

Quote from: Martin Niemoller
First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out - because I was not a communist;
Then they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out - because I was not a socialist;
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out - because I was not a trade unionist;
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out - because I was not a Jew;
Then they came for me - and there was no one left to speak out for me.


There are times when you can neither just complain or work in incremental steps to better your situation - thus:

Quote from: Thomas Jefferson
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
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January 23, 2019, 06:02:13 PM


Guess his bags are full right now. Smiley
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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January 23, 2019, 06:02:53 PM

The price...

FML

May is too far away. I need to buy a few things now.

I guess I convert from my US dollars to bitcoins to baht instead of just selling at these prices.

I am sorry to hear that Elwar.

I had rather assumed that you, chasing your dreams with such abandon, were well and truly set up from the previous runups.

Perhaps you are more courageous than I realized.

I don't understand any clear explanation regarding how someone like Elwar could be doing very badly, unless there is some part of the story that is left out.

Seems to me that he made a really BIG gamble when BTC prices were in the $500s and even overleveraged into BTC, but why wouldn't that overleveraging have paid off, even if he has to shave off some BTC from time to time in order to cover expenses and even if he is only getting  6x or 7x returns rather than 30x?

Any of us who chose to place a very large amount of our total reserves into bitcoin is going to have to cash out from time to time because the world remains run on fiat and priced in fiat, at least expected for a considerable time into the future.

Personally, I believe that it remains much more prudent to have some of your cashflow figured out in fiat for 6-12 months in advance - and if bear trends continue for longer, then the next plan is going to involve dipping into bitcoin, especially if you have caused such a situation in your own way of keeping a large amount of your total value in BTC.

So far in BTC's history, such a plan to keep a large amount of value in BTC will have worked for a large number of folks, if they front load, and if their cashing out plan has at least a few years.   Actually, if there was front loading in late 2013 in the supra $1k price territory, it would have taken 4 years to get into the break even territory, but then to really prosper after that, as long as there was an ability to hang on for a bit longer.

Who knows if such plans to frontload and to have 3-4 year plus timelines will continue to pay off in bitcoin in the coming years?  Does seem that odds remain decently well in such plans and practices continuing to be quite profitable, even though risky, but there likely could be a need to have several years in the personal plan's timeline in order to be able to really insure that the reaping of benefits is going to be profitable without being forced to withdraw too much of the value during low price periods.

I need to buy a boat soon...I don't want to sell at the bottom.

I have cash set aside that I can live on through 2020...but not "I can buy a sail boat" cash...puts me closer to living through 2019.

Then again...on the seastead I will only need to pay for food that I don't catch. And about $12 for Internet each month.
No property taxes, electric, water...
Occassional propane and gasoline re-fill. So maybe I am putting myself to 2025 funds...

There is surely a timing thing, and a gamble about whether you get more bang for your bitcoin by waiting and whether it is worth it to wait.  Either way, when you are cashing out of your bitcoin for the BIG expenses (such as the boat), you are still cashing out at considerable profits - its just a matter of whether it might be a bit more prudent to wait a bit longer (and whether you feel that you are ready, willing and able to wait).

I personally, had some building expenses that came due after the BTC price dropped below $6k, and there is only so much that I can do in order to NOT cash out some BTC to pay for some of the expenses.   It remains a bit nerve racking because I personally had a fiat cushion that was clearly able to pay for a decent portion of my BIG expenses, but if I spent all my fiat to pay those expenses, then I would be left without any fiat reserves (which is always a practice of mine to keep a decent amount of reserves in order to be able to buy more BTC if the price goes down to levels that are quite likely to be bargain basement levels). 

So, yeah, each of our situations are different, and for me, with the passage of time, I continue to have fiat coming in from various income sources (and traditional investments)  and I can stack away the fiat to become more and more and more, so if the BTC price stays down, then I pretty much buy back most if not all the BTC that I sold at less preferable prices.

I had kind of placed you in the category of going "too much 'in' " bitcoin, and therefore, you might not have safeguarded enough of your fiat flow.  Surely, that is for you to determine, but if anyone attempts to go too much in bitcoin, then the downwards volatility is going to stress them out a whole hell of a lot more than someone who has preserved some of the fiat value (and/or fiat cashflow to account for expenses in the coming 6-12 months).
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January 23, 2019, 06:12:19 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

According to a survey conducted by Bitwise (who made an ETF proposal 2 weeks ago), 58% of US investors would prefer to invest in BTC via an ETF.

https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/01/23/58-of-us-investors-would-invest-in-bitcoin-via-etf-major-hedge-fund/

"the survey saw participation from 150 financial advisors in the US market. When asked what would make them allocate Bitcoin in their client portfolios, 54% of them said “better regulations” and 35% said “the launch of an ETF.”

This is from Bitwise :
https://offthechain.substack.com/p/crypto-etf-101
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