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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 8 (5.9%)
H2 2019 - 15 (11%)
H1 2020 - 25 (18.4%)
H2 2020 - 25 (18.4%)
H1 2021 - 11 (8.1%)
H2 2021 - 27 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.4%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.9%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 2 (1.5%)
2024 or Later - 13 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 136

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21285329 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
bones261
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March 08, 2019, 03:34:31 AM

xhomerx10, may I please have a new hat? I want one with a cool 3d effect. Pretty please. Any bone theme will be sufficient. It doesn't have to be the mutant angler fish.

 You had me at "may" Smiley  Give me a few days though because I'm away from my desktop.


I can't wait.  Smiley

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlwnbcxBuzI
Some PGP public keys you should import: theymos, Wladimir, Gregory, Pieter
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Lambie Slayer
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March 08, 2019, 04:11:19 AM

[edited out]

Perhaps our Roach and his future lover Gembitz were slain as the bear market morphed into a new Baby Bull Market.  Wink

I am not going to go so far as to say that there is no such thing as a "baby bull market" but surely we are not in such a market yet.

The evidence seems pretty strong that we are currently in a bear market... however, subsequently, if the current bottom of $3,122 is not breached, and better yet $3,700 is NOT breached then there could be some later BTC price behavior that causes us to subsequently describe this period as the beginning of a bull market (aka baby bull)... but we are very far from such a defined state, and it remains about a 52% to 48% proposition that the bottom is NOT in.

The market has been bullish for 82 days since the low of 3122. For Bears to claim continuation of a bear market they will have to break this low. The burden of proof is on them. Its a Baby Bull Market until then. Bears never broke the Jan 15 low in 2015 and the rest of 2015 was a bull market. We are in the same pattern until proven otherwise.

Its a Bull Market ya know.

Seems to me Lambie Slayer is a nice person. Would like to meet him @ the 100k party next year.  Cool

Very much looking forward to meeting you sir. 100k will be a beautiful day Grin


Even "roach wannabes" can have some humor in them.   Cheesy Go figure.  Wink

When 100k comes Im guessing Rebal15 will be holding .05 BTC and thinking he did well over the years. Grin

The new Bull Market will only truly reward true believers. Debbie downers and doubters will have the scraps if they are lucky. A fool and his coin are soon parted.
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March 08, 2019, 04:20:24 AM

[ edited out]

When 100k comes Im guessing Rebal15 will be holding .05 BTC and thinking he did well over the years. Grin

The new Bull Market will only truly reward true believers. Debbie downers and doubters will have the scraps if they are lucky. A fool and his coin are soon parted.

Fair enough.  Some of those troll/shill/bitcoin naysayers will either come around to bitcoin earlier or they are stacking satoshis on the side, but you are correct that a more sound strategy would be to stack satoshis and discontinue with the bitcoin bashing... so buy the time $100k comes (assuming it does), they will at least be in the more than 1 BTC club, and better yet if they could stack enough to either get into the double digit BTC club or the 21 club.
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March 08, 2019, 04:30:51 AM

[ edited out]

When 100k comes Im guessing Rebal15 will be holding .05 BTC and thinking he did well over the years. Grin

The new Bull Market will only truly reward true believers. Debbie downers and doubters will have the scraps if they are lucky. A fool and his coin are soon parted.

Fair enough.  Some of those troll/shill/bitcoin naysayers will either come around to bitcoin earlier or they are stacking satoshis on the side, but you are correct that a more sound strategy would be to stack satoshis and discontinue with the bitcoin bashing... so buy the time $100k comes (assuming it does), they will at least be in the more than 1 BTC club, and better yet if they could stack enough to either get into the double digit BTC club or the 21 club.

Agreed. Sadly I doubt Rebal15 will last long in this game. I think his first post was something about if it goes down anymore he will sell everything Roll Eyes

He has been called a Roach alt, but Im gonna give Roach a lot more credit than that.

Rebal15 if im wrong and you gain some conviction and act diligently to stack more coin, then kudos to you. Its still very early and 100k is inevitable.
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March 08, 2019, 04:32:46 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RHV9K-ditk

This little Bull calf gets stronger each day. Cheesy
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March 08, 2019, 04:45:37 AM

xhomerx10, may I please have a new hat? I want one with a cool 3d effect. Pretty please. Any bone theme will be sufficient. It doesn't have to be the mutant angler fish.

 You had me at "may" Smiley  Give me a few days though because I'm away from my desktop.


I can't wait.  Smiley

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlwnbcxBuzI

I understand, each time it all excitement while waiting what XhomerX Will create Grin
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March 08, 2019, 04:52:07 AM

https://bitcoinist.com/gemini-backed-bitcoin-interest-account/

6.2% annual interest for a Bitcoin account sounds appealing. The idea is good and may attract many investors. But what if BlockFi turns out to be the new Bitconnect? Who cares that it is backed by Gemini?Any thoughts on this?
There's no way they can sustain 6.2% annual Bitcoin interest unless they pay it in fiat or virtually nobody deposits/stays deposited.

Sounds sketchy but some might take the risk (not me).



Will they offer the same rate when Bitcoin is well above $100k?

Lending out just 2 coins will net you $10k every singel month...this sounds too good to be true.

BTCjam 2.0.
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March 08, 2019, 05:16:27 AM

https://bitcoinist.com/gemini-backed-bitcoin-interest-account/

6.2% annual interest for a Bitcoin account sounds appealing. The idea is good and may attract many investors. But what if BlockFi turns out to be the new Bitconnect? Who cares that it is backed by Gemini?Any thoughts on this?
There's no way they can sustain 6.2% annual Bitcoin interest unless they pay it in fiat or virtually nobody deposits/stays deposited.

Sounds sketchy but some might take the risk (not me).



Will they offer the same rate when Bitcoin is well above $100k?

Lending out just 2 coins will net you $10k every singel month...this sounds too good to be true.

BTCjam 2.0.
It does not if you base it on those fiat numbers. There are, sometimes, dividends that pay in that range. The problem with BTC interest is the limited supply. It's just simply unsustainable for any substantial volume or period of time. So either they'll get "hacked" or lower the rates substantially depending on liquidity.
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March 08, 2019, 05:24:13 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?
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March 08, 2019, 05:26:14 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

https://bitcoinist.com/gemini-backed-bitcoin-interest-account/

6.2% annual interest for a Bitcoin account sounds appealing. The idea is good and may attract many investors. But what if BlockFi turns out to be the new Bitconnect? Who cares that it is backed by Gemini?Any thoughts on this?
There's no way they can sustain 6.2% annual Bitcoin interest unless they pay it in fiat or virtually nobody deposits/stays deposited.

Sounds sketchy but some might take the risk (not me).



Will they offer the same rate when Bitcoin is well above $100k?

Lending out just 2 coins will net you $10k every singel month...this sounds too good to be true.

BTCjam 2.0.
It is too gods to be true, because it is not true.
With bitcoin at 100k USD , lending 2 coins would give you 12,400 USD annually, with monthly payments.
6.2% annual interest means you get 6.2% of your capital...annually.
micgoossens
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March 08, 2019, 05:28:14 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

I could perfectly live with all 3 of those.... but never underestimate the suddenly big movements of BTC, i love those..... the ones when nobody expect them and everybody needs to adjust there TA’s Cheesy
But for normal moves those 3 are good and in line with HM’s 6K december price range
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March 08, 2019, 05:30:54 AM

I don't think it's been mentioned before but Coinbase is gonna add staking to its services :

https://bitcoinerx.com/exchanges/coinbase-aiming-to-beef-up-services-with-staking-after-new-hire/


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March 08, 2019, 05:33:36 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

I could perfectly live with all 3 of those.... but never underestimate the suddenly big movements of BTC, i love those..... the ones when nobody expect them and everybody needs to adjust there TA’s Cheesy
But for normal moves those 3 are good and in line with HM’s 6K december price range

I am not trying to describe a preferred course, because I would prefer that the price just goes shooting up.

Instead, I am just thinking about what kind of scenarios (of course I may change my mind) would cause me to start to assert that we are no longer in a bear market.. and we have converted from bear to bull market.  Because ever since we dropped below $6k without bouncing up in a reasonably quick time, I converted my labelling of the market from bull to bear.   These are merely variations of conditions that I could think of that would cause me to convert back. 

I suppose there could be another kind of 4th circumstances that if the price breaks below $3,320, then what would it take for me to consider the conversion from bear to bull?, but since we have not yet broken below $3,320 to satisfy another possible scenario, I consider that kind of 4th condition to be too far removed from current speculation and NOT worthy of consideration until such 4th condition were to actually happen, if it does.
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March 08, 2019, 05:38:34 AM

I don't think it's been mentioned before but Coinbase is gonna add staking to its services :

https://bitcoinerx.com/exchanges/coinbase-aiming-to-beef-up-services-with-staking-after-new-hire/




Great. Nothing like trusting coins to a third party hot wallet...
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March 08, 2019, 06:27:57 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their.  Grin
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March 08, 2019, 06:35:02 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

The fact of making predictions like that is 'scary' to me.....with last years track record....well....just reading any of the above spooks me these days Sad

(i used to be such a BTC crypto hero..er..now..meh...need to get my head on straight and just buy now I guess)

brad
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March 08, 2019, 06:35:42 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their.  Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right?   Tongue Tongue
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March 08, 2019, 06:39:57 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

The fact of making predictions like that is 'scary' to me.....with last years track record....well....just reading any of the above spooks me these days Sad

(i used to be such a BTC crypto hero..er..now..meh...need to get my head on straight and just buy now I guess)

brad

They are not predictions.

Based on today's BTC market dynamics, they are conditions in which I would begin to assert that we have converted from a bear market to a bull market.

So I agree with you that currently times are a bit depressing, because we are in a bear market.  However, if any of the three conditions play out, then I am willing to convert my assertion about what market I believe that we are in.  In other words, I am attempting to be descriptive rather than predictive and giving three different scenarios to change the market label from bear to bull.


Edit:  By the way, decent battle going on for dominance at $3,900 right now, and some peeps would call this healthy organic growth.  Perhaps...it is. perhaps.

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March 08, 2019, 06:45:45 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their.  Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right?   Tongue Tongue

I still don't understand what keeps Bitfinex steadily above the other exchanges by about $100... I know they are the biggest Tether exchanger, but it seems like people should have been able to find non-USDT ways to arbitrage their price down to an equilibrium after all these months.

Current prices

Bitfinex: $4003
Bitstamp: $3893
Kraken: $3895
GDAX: $3897

Huh something doesn't add up here
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March 08, 2019, 06:50:38 AM

Mmmm like this Philippine timezone

To live the pump——-> sleep the dump

Nice weather Nice green-ish btc prices
And my GF on my side
Life can be sunny and good from time to time (and away of them damn burgers... Roll Eyes )
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