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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.6%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.2%)
H1 2020 - 30 (19.1%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.8%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.6%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.7%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.5%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 157

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21293948 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 06:52:12 AM
Merited by nutildah (1)

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their.  Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right?   Tongue Tongue

I still don't understand what keeps Bitfinex steadily above the other exchanges by about $100... I know they are the biggest Tether exchanger, but it seems like people should have been able to find non-USDT ways to arbitrage their price down to an equilibrium after all these months.

Current prices

Bitfinex: $4003
Bitstamp: $3893
Kraken: $3895
GDAX: $3897

Huh something doesn't add up here

I think that it is margin trading too... but I think more importantly a bit of a lack of confidence in the various banking relations of Bitfinex and the fact that they are forced to use tether.  I don't think that it is a BIG deal because there have always been exchanges that are out of alignment.  Sometimes the out of alignment lasts for short periods and resolves and other times it lasts a lot longer, as this Bitfinex gap seems to be persisting. 

I also believe that when peeps try to read too much into the gap, they are getting caught upon largely distracting irrelevancies.... even if every once in a while some kind of interesting analysis may come of out such price gap focuses.
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March 08, 2019, 06:53:24 AM


Probably not. I really haven't had cause to look into Binance Coin. But I'm guessing it is probably not publicly mineable. Probably not even mined? If such, it is arguably not even a cryptocurrency, in the proper definition of the word.
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March 08, 2019, 06:54:24 AM

Mmmm like this Philippine timezone

To live the pump——-> sleep the dump

Nice weather Nice green-ish btc prices
And my GF on my side
Life can be sunny and good from time to time (and away of them damn burgers... Roll Eyes )

Have you tried Jollibee yet? I can power down 3 cheesy yum burgers, no problem.

Chowking is also pretty dope. If you get the chance, try to have somebody make you some pork adobo somewhere. That's like their signature dish (of the nation).

I notice the biggest BTC price shifts tend to happen between 8 pm and 10 pm on Mondays (Philippines time zone), that's when the markets are just waking up for the week on the east coast (of the U.S.).
micgoossens
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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March 08, 2019, 07:01:04 AM

Mmmm like this Philippine timezone

To live the pump——-> sleep the dump

Nice weather Nice green-ish btc prices
And my GF on my side
Life can be sunny and good from time to time (and away of them damn burgers... Roll Eyes )

Have you tried Jollibee yet? I can power down 3 cheesy yum burgers, no problem.

Chowking is also pretty dope. If you get the chance, try to have somebody make you some pork adobo somewhere. That's like their signature dish (of the nation).

I notice the biggest BTC price shifts tend to happen between 8 pm and 10 pm on Mondays (Philippines time zone), that's when the markets are just waking up for the week on the east coast (of the U.S.).

Haha we aren’t eating meat anymore for over 3 months or so..... my GF quitted and i followed Roll Eyes
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March 08, 2019, 07:03:08 AM

Haha we aren’t eating meat anymore for over 3 months or so..... my GF quitted and i followed Roll Eyes

Oh man. Well don't forget to take some sort of vitamins and/or iron supplements! Lest you get weak and soft, make you want to dump your BTC as a side effect of vegetarianism...
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March 08, 2019, 07:05:20 AM

LastoftheV8TrilemmaShills is now filing FALSE REPORTS against me.  ...

I’m not gonna search for things..... but i just know V8 isn’t really someone thats a liar.....

Yeah, I was as surprised as anyone might be to learn that V8 is a whiny bitch in the shadows. And that's all I'm gonna need to say about that.
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March 08, 2019, 07:12:51 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), nutildah (1), d_eddie (1)

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their.  Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right?   Tongue Tongue

I still don't understand what keeps Bitfinex steadily above the other exchanges by about $100... I know they are the biggest Tether exchanger, but it seems like people should have been able to find non-USDT ways to arbitrage their price down to an equilibrium after all these months.

Current prices

Bitfinex: $4003
Bitstamp: $3893
Kraken: $3895
GDAX: $3897

Huh something doesn't add up here

The arbitrage with Bitcoin to fiat is very risky. First, Bitfinex is nothing like the US exchanges (which are under the supervision of SEC) and is known with their "hacks" and "bank problems". This means your money can be stolen and you can't do anything about it. Second: if you buy at Bitstamp and transfer the Bitcoins to Bitfinex, you have to wait several hours during which time the price may dip. And finally, you are allowed to withdraw fiat only once per month a sum less than 1 mil$. Otherwise, you have to pay 3% fee. And since USDT is traded 2% higher than the USD, you are not able to withdraw on a profit USDT. Speaking of arbitrage, it is better to use ETH or other alt, because they are faster. But the premium is smaller, I think 1.5%. Anyway, it is not worth the risk IMO.

Edit. This does not mean that there are no people who take advantage of this arbitrage possibility. I am sure most  of the miners prefer to sell in Bitfinex to have a bit bigger profit. And since the volume is very low recently like 1.8K for a time last Sunday and 6-7K like today, this may have a significant negative impact on the price. If the price is the same, not many miners will risk to use Bitfinex. So for me, the sooner this gap is closed, the better.
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March 08, 2019, 07:13:25 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)


And my GF on my side

Hey mic (and others), don't forget what today is :



And roach, get some flowers for... your sister.
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March 08, 2019, 07:13:53 AM
Last edit: March 08, 2019, 07:25:25 AM by HairyMaclairy

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020 December 2019
nutildah
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March 08, 2019, 07:28:55 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their.  Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right?   Tongue Tongue

I still don't understand what keeps Bitfinex steadily above the other exchanges by about $100... I know they are the biggest Tether exchanger, but it seems like people should have been able to find non-USDT ways to arbitrage their price down to an equilibrium after all these months.

Current prices

Bitfinex: $4003
Bitstamp: $3893
Kraken: $3895
GDAX: $3897

Huh something doesn't add up here

The arbitrage with Bitcoin to fiat is very risky. First, Bitfinex is nothing like the US exchanges (which are under the supervision of SEC) and is known with their "hacks" and "bank problems". This means your money can be stolen and you can't do anything about it. Second: if you buy at Bitstamp and transfer the Bitcoins to Bitfinex, you have to wait several hours during which time the price may dip. And finally, you are allowed to withdraw fiat only once per month a sum less than 1 mil$. Otherwise, you have to pay 3% fee. And since USDT is traded 2% higher than the USD, you are not able to withdraw on a profit USDT. Speaking of arbitrage, it is better to use ETH or other alt, because they are faster. But the premium is smaller, I think 1.5%. Anyway, it is not worth the risk IMO.

A lot of people still trust them, it would appear, with a $24.5 million BTC/USD daily volume. But you're likely right -- it exists for a reason, such things always do. There's no such thing as a free lunch.

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March 08, 2019, 07:36:26 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 07:46:27 AM

Mmmm like this Philippine timezone

To live the pump——-> sleep the dump

Nice weather Nice green-ish btc prices
And my GF on my side
Life can be sunny and good from time to time (and away of them damn burgers... Roll Eyes )

Have you tried Jollibee yet? I can power down 3 cheesy yum burgers, no problem.

Chowking is also pretty dope. If you get the chance, try to have somebody make you some pork adobo somewhere. That's like their signature dish (of the nation).

I notice the biggest BTC price shifts tend to happen between 8 pm and 10 pm on Mondays (Philippines time zone), that's when the markets are just waking up for the week on the east coast (of the U.S.).

I thought that Philippines was becoming a bit more BTC friendly, and I recall one of the Philippines banks was going to be providing Bitcoin teller machines  (BTMs). 

Not that I am encouraging spending BTC, but sometimes it can be nice to have possible easy access to emergency funds through BTC, especially when traveling, right?  Do you see any BTC teller machines? around manila or other cities?
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 07:49:03 AM

Haha we aren’t eating meat anymore for over 3 months or so..... my GF quitted and i followed Roll Eyes

Oh man. Well don't forget to take some sort of vitamins and/or iron supplements! Lest you get weak and soft, make you want to dump your BTC as a side effect of vegetarianism...

Exactly...

hormones will get screwed up.  Won't want to have sex, and won't be able to produce babies either.  Might not notice in the short term, but could be problematic, and personally, I value both my libido... well mostly my libido.. it is a decent reason for living.
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 07:50:40 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.

It is not a prediction.  It is a description of various possible scenarios. 

Accordingly, those are conditions in which I am planning to convert my assessment of the current BTC market dynamics from current status of bear to bull.
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March 08, 2019, 07:58:20 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2), vapourminer (1)

Not that I am encouraging spending BTC, but sometimes it can be nice to have possible easy access to emergency funds through BTC, especially when traveling, right?  Do you see any BTC teller machines? around manila or other cities?

Yes, but they are specifically limited to Manila. Funny story: the first time I ever went to the Philippines I only brought US dollars, being naive enough to think they would generally accept them (they do not). My big plan was to cash out BTC for pesos, which I did in the BTC ATM in Manila. The transaction was taking so long, the security guard looked at me and said I should just go to a bank. But sure enough, after 30 minutes, out popped my pesos. Only months afterward did I learn about the moneychangers.

There is a $5 standard ATM withdrawal fee for foreign debit cards, a bit pricey.

What's interesting is all the 7-Elevens have these "cash in" machines where you can cash pesos in to BTC via Coins.ph (by far the most popular wallet in the country). Going the other way isn't so easy -- you have to use a remittance service like Cebuana or M Lhullier, though sometimes I can do a cardless cashout at a Security Bank ATM (that feature has a lot of downtime though). All can be done through Coins.ph -- you can also load your phone will minutes, text or data. It truly is a great service that uses BTC for what it was intended, which is why millions of Filipinos have a Coins.ph wallet.

You can actually save money by converting straight from BTC to pesos, skipping USD. Its cheaper than paying the ATM withdrawal fee. Sometimes I get paid in BTC from my job, so I cash out to myself, or my girlfriend, or her family, etc.

Unfortunately, most people associate bitcoin with "scam" here still. There's not a high level of financial literacy, and a lot of poverty, so people frequently get sucked into cloud mining / ponzi / bitcoin doubler schemes. Its pretty sad. Generally speaking, those in the know have a high regard for BTC and those who only hear about it through anecdotal evidence do not -- same as anywhere, really.
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 08:00:00 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020 December 2019


Finally someone (hairybairy) seems to kind of understand my post.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy 

At least, there seems to be a kind of schelling point in the different scenarios.  Shocked
HairyMaclairy
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March 08, 2019, 08:03:49 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020 December 2019


Finally someone (hairybairy) seems to kind of understand my post.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  

At least, there seems to be a kind of schelling point in the different scenarios.  Shocked

Schelling point is $3.  If you had said 3) BTC price does not break below $3,323 for at least one year, then it would have been much nicer

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020
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March 08, 2019, 08:07:42 AM

Not that I am encouraging spending BTC, but sometimes it can be nice to have possible easy access to emergency funds through BTC, especially when traveling, right?  Do you see any BTC teller machines? around manila or other cities?

Yes, but they are specifically limited to Manila. Funny story: the first time I ever went to the Philippines I only brought US dollars, being naive enough to think they would generally accept them (they do not). My big plan was to cash out BTC for pesos, which I did in the BTC ATM in Manila. The transaction was taking so long, the security guard looked at me and said I should just go to a bank. But sure enough, after 30 minutes, out popped my pesos. Only months afterward did I learn about the moneychangers.

There is a $5 standard ATM withdrawal fee for foreign debit cards, a bit pricey.

What's interesting is all the 7-Elevens have these "cash in" machines where you can cash pesos in to BTC via Coins.ph (by far the most popular wallet in the country). Going the other way isn't so easy -- you have to use a remittance service like Cebuana or M Lhullier, though sometimes I can do a cardless cashout at a Security Bank ATM (that feature has a lot of downtime though). All can be done through Coins.ph -- you can also load your phone will minutes, text or data. It truly is a great service that uses BTC for what it was intended, which is why millions of Filipinos have a Coins.ph wallet.

You can actually save money by converting straight from BTC to pesos, skipping USD. Its cheaper than paying the ATM withdrawal fee. Sometimes I get paid in BTC from my job, so I cash out to myself, or my girlfriend, or her family, etc.

Unfortunately, most people associate bitcoin with "scam" here still. There's not a high level of financial literacy, and a lot of poverty, so people frequently get sucked into cloud mining / ponzi / bitcoin doubler schemes. Its pretty sad. Generally speaking, those in the know have a high regard for BTC and those who only hear about it through anecdotal evidence do not -- same as anywhere, really.

Thanks.  That is the most specific on the ground BTC report that I have seen so far about the philipines.  I am considering going there later in the year.. depending on a couple of other matters that I have to research too before I finalize.  I'm thinking that I will probably know more in about May-ish.... regarding timeline or possible competing locations.
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March 08, 2019, 08:19:09 AM
Merited by HairyMaclairy (1)

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020 December 2019


Finally someone (hairybairy) seems to kind of understand my post.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  

At least, there seems to be a kind of schelling point in the different scenarios.  Shocked

Schelling point is $3.  If you had said 3) BTC price does not break below $3,323 for at least one year, then it would have been much nicer

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020

O.k.  I am self-loathing to admit it.  I screwed up.

Therefore, since I don't like to feel badly about myself, I take back all of the good things that I had ever said about you (if they were to exist) (even if I will leave all posts - unedited), and I will also take back any good thoughts that I was considering having about you, too.

On the other hand, it is kind of nice to convert my attempt at a descriptive statement regarding conditions out of a bear market into a predictive statement and confirming that the bull market is beginning, soontm  (that is if we can describe 11 months from now, as soon tm?).
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March 08, 2019, 08:25:05 AM

Regarding current BTC price:

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