Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

I could perfectly live with all 3 of those.... but never underestimate the suddenly big movements of BTC, i love those..... the ones when nobody expect them and everybody needs to adjust there TA’s
But for normal moves those 3 are good and in line with HM’s 6K december price range

I am not trying to describe a preferred course, because I would prefer that the price just goes shooting up.

Instead, I am just thinking about what kind of scenarios (of course I may change my mind) would cause me to start to assert that we are no longer in a bear market.. and we have converted from bear to bull market.  Because ever since we dropped below $6k without bouncing up in a reasonably quick time, I converted my labelling of the market from bull to bear.   These are merely variations of conditions that I could think of that would cause me to convert back. 

I suppose there could be another kind of 4th circumstances that if the price breaks below $3,320, then what would it take for me to consider the conversion from bear to bull?, but since we have not yet broken below $3,320 to satisfy another possible scenario, I consider that kind of 4th condition to be too far removed from current speculation and NOT worthy of consideration until such 4th condition were to actually happen, if it does.

So largely, going up and staying up would  be your main indicators. Right.

I thought that the three scenarios describe different variations, and the third scenario is that it does not go down any further for 1 year... which is not exactly going up, but it would still cause me to begin to assert that we have transformed into a bull market rather than being in our current bear market.

[Lambie Slayer]

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.

It is not a prediction.  It is a description of various possible scenarios.  

Accordingly, those are conditions in which I am planning to convert my assessment of the current BTC market dynamics from current status of bear to bull.

Here is my opinion on this matter. All three scenarios would give one a very high probability of being correct in declaring a Bull Market. The nuance here that is important is that the Bull Market would not start on the day one of these conditions was met, it would still have begun on December 15, 2018. Bear Markets have a way of beating a lot of bulls down and making them set a very high bar for what it would take for them to consider the market to have flipped back to bull.

I was very dedicated to accumulating stocks and index fund investments for years before Bitcoin came along and saved me. Bear and bull markets traditionally are measured by 20 percent moves, but this would be ridiculous in Bitcoin because by that metric we would have had countless bear and bull markets in the last ten years. This forces us to arbitrarily pick what constitutes a Bull or Bear market. We are the pioneers laying down what future generations of coiners will consider traditional.

I do think it is important to distinguish the difference between a circumstance giving one confidence that we are in a Bull Market, vs that circumstance marking the beginning of said Bull Market. You might say that for a sports team that has languished through terrible seasons to have turned itself around and have a good season that the team would need to meet a goal like making the playoffs, or having a winning record 3 quarters into the season, etc.

However if the team gets to the playoffs and you say, well there you go, that team that used to be trash is having a good season, you would be correct. It would also be correct to point out that the good season started in the first play of the first regular season game and the former trash team was having a good season all along, many just didnt believe in them till they made the playoffs.

A few hardcore fans would have been going to pre-season games and cheering on their beloved team from the beginning. Bitcoin has had a shit season, no doubt. I believe that Bitcoin will make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl, win the World Series, win the Stanley Cup, win the Masters, win the World Cup, unify the boxing heavyweight titles, and win the UFC heavyweight championship. I realize many wont believe until they see more results, but I say.................

83 days into the new Baby Bull Market and all is well

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generatorvia Imgflip Meme Generatorvia Imgflip Meme Generator

Insane beauty of the world ...... just a wrong man leading this beautyfull lands i guess ......

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

I don’t know exactly what it is, but surely there is place for r0ach as well......

[HairyMaclairy]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

I don’t know exactly what it is, but surely there is place for r0ach as well......

You pay 1 silver bar for 15 minutes and a man with a green beard spanks you

[Lambie Slayer]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

I don’t know exactly what it is, but surely there is place for r0ach as well......

Lmao, we need a translation of that sign.

Once Roach sees this video he will wish he had gone to a certain high school in Alabama where he could have really fit in.

https://twitter.com/RacistOTW/status/1102598179974008834

[Majormax]

I am not trying to describe a preferred course, because I would prefer that the price just goes shooting up.

Instead, I am just thinking about what kind of scenarios (of course I may change my mind) would cause me to start to assert that we are no longer in a bear market.. and we have converted from bear to bull market.  Because ever since we dropped below $6k without bouncing up in a reasonably quick time, I converted my labelling of the market from bull to bear.   These are merely variations of conditions that I could think of that would cause me to convert back.  

I suppose there could be another kind of 4th circumstances that if the price breaks below $3,320, then what would it take for me to consider the conversion from bear to bull?, but since we have not yet broken below $3,320 to satisfy another possible scenario, I consider that kind of 4th condition to be too far removed from current speculation and NOT worthy of consideration until such 4th condition were to actually happen, if it does.

I looked back at all my posts in Feb 2018, when I labelled this a Bear Market, due for an 85% drop.  I have never really changed my mind.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30067641#msg30067641

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg29643594#msg29643594

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30196222#msg30196222

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30244256#msg30244256



$2k low can still happen.  (I would say around 30% probability now). The longer it stays above £3200 the less likely, but only if there is a creeping rise. Bumping along the bottom is not a good sign. The BTC waves are getting longer as the adoption/market matures, and therefore it might not be possible to call the low being in until at least 2020, worst case 2021.  Regarding your test levels, my own instinct is that a move above $4k which doesn't get reversed for at least 6 months, would be the earliest possible prediction of a bull trend. Even that might be premature.

In the end it's all down to probabilities. Anyone who makes firm dogmatic predictions is due for a lot of disappointments in their trading.  My own instinct, taking all things into consideration, is that there is a 50% chance we touch $5k sometime this year (but may still end sub4k in December) 30% chance there is a new sub3k low, and the bear ends in late 2021. 10% it gets $5k-6k by end year, 5% deep freeze (sub 2k), and 5% moon (that would be ~8k by year end).

Keep up the hopium. I'm a bull too, but a realistic one !

further edit :  I suppose I should give a 10% for 'other', just to be more exacting, so label 'touch 5k this year' as 40%.

[ivomm]

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

First of all, Bitcoin is in a bull market since the beginning  in 2008-2009. For a truly bear market we can talk if the prices are lower 20% from the ATH after 10 years or more (this is the case with gold and silver, which are nearly 10 years much lower than the ATH - the so called "secular" bear market). What we have with Bitcoin is a partial case of a cyclical bear market that can last up to 4 years because of the halvings. The actual length of the cycles is much less than 4 years - so far 1 year tops. And even if we use the term "cyclical bear market" we won't be 100% correct, since the other conditions are not fulfilled: widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment (which actually define the bear market). The reasons for the dips and crashes may be multiple (MtGox dump fear, fork fear, etc.). but are not relatable to the future of Bitcoin at all. What happened in 2015 and 2018 is the most common falling wedge pattern, which is part of the bull market: (https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal)

"The Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout occurs. "


So, at some point this year, we will break out from the falling wedge pattern and resume the bull trend. All we need is more volume so the break out will be defended.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Thank you, you are very funny.  As in amusing.  Not odd.  Not odder than myself or anyone else here.  Which is a low bar but I enjoy our group of misfits.

I take great offense to that statement.


Might as well take the opportunity to note that despite our differences I enjoy reading your (non-TA; don't care about TA in general since I do my own) posts. Or perhaps because of the differences.

[Majormax]

First of all, Bitcoin is in a bull market since its creation in 2009. For a truly bear market we can talk if the prices are lower 20% from the ATH after 10 years or more (this is the case with gold and silver, which are nearly 10 years much lower than the ATH - ...



So, at some point this year, we will break out from the falling wedge pattern and resume the bull trend. All we need is more volume so the break out will be defended.

Bear markets dont have to last 10 years.  

You can label it what you like, that's just semantics.

The correction/bear/downwave  will be proportionate to the bull phase. With BTC, it has always been longer in downwave than in upwave.  A study of the  charts reveals that quite clearly.

Way too early to predict a new bullphase this year. It is only a possibility, not a likelihood. Looking back from 2023 we might label it with hindsight.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

mic, I don’t want to piss everybody off & quote your post so all the pics come up again making the page bloated but I just had to say - WOW

Those pics are outstanding, true natural, unspoilt beauty. I am so jealous.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮

College tuition in Belgium

Tuition fees at public universities and colleges in the French Community of Belgium are set by the regional government. For the academic year 2015/2016, tuition fees ranged from 374 to 836.96 EUR per year for EU students depending on their income and whether they are eligible for a grant/scholarship.

There are other reasons.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies

I'm in Europe and University has gone to shit here. The Bachelor/Master system is a complete downgrade and utter disgrace from what we had before in a country undisclosed. University is now school round two instead of being an institution that fosters research and critical thinking (in non-research students - which make up the majority of the student body). I was appalled at how cookie cutter Mathematics and Physics programs are and surprised at the resulting quality of graduates (before I realized the problem).

Also, thanks to university "being" (appearing) free, people who can't normally afford it are taking up bullshit recreational courses that don't produce any value in the Economy. I don't have anything against those and am interested in some of the topics myself. But when people get fooled into believing that they can study anything and get a job there's a problem. And when it's "free" they are ridden of any incentive to think about the implications of their actions.

[El duderino_]

mic, I don’t want to piss everybody off & quote your post so all the pics come up again making the page bloated but I just had to say - WOW

Those pics are outstanding, true natural, unspoilt beauty. I am so jealous.

Yeah..., gonna go tomorrow ... 3 more destinations islands
But gonna stop with the PIC’s for now in this homefront of BTC related talks....

Sorry to all you Guys and readers in the dark, gonna STOP for a few days with the pic’s
But LFC truely make of philippines you’re next destination bro its graven and i’m only saw half of my vacation
Also the 3 days whiteout internet so un stressing its awesome
Directly recommend you what i have already done till now
X (no homo )

[HairyMaclairy]

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮

College tuition in Belgium

Tuition fees at public universities and colleges in the French Community of Belgium are set by the regional government. For the academic year 2015/2016, tuition fees ranged from 374 to 836.96 EUR per year for EU students depending on their income and whether they are eligible for a grant/scholarship.

There are other reasons.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies

I'm in Europe and University has gone to shit here. The Bachelor/Master system is a complete downgrade and utter disgrace from what we had before in a country undisclosed. University is now school round two instead of being an institution that fosters research and critical thinking (in non-research students - which make up the majority of the student body). I was appalled at how cookie cutter Mathematics and Physics programs are and surprised at the resulting quality of graduates (before I realized the problem).

Also, thanks to university "being" (appearing) free, people who can't normally afford it are taking up bullshit recreational courses that don't produce any value in the Economy. I don't have anything against those and am interested in some of the topics myself. But when people get fooled into believing that they can study anything and get a job there's a problem. And when it's "free" they are ridden of any incentive to think about the implications of their actions.

I don’t really know anything about European universities other than what I can read online so will need to defer to your judgement. And I agree that many degrees are not very good, but it is still much better to be an art history major than someone who doesn’t have a trade and has never gone to university (and lots of NEETs around).  

[Last of the V8s]

[Syke]

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮

Let me help you with that.

[VB1001]

When POMP Hairy?

$6k by December 2019

$10k by mid 2020

New ATH at start 2021

Then POMP

Remember September 2017, everyone expected $ 8k in December 2017

For December 2019 there is a lot of time, BTC + relevant news and FOMO = +/- $ 10k  

(Although BTC is unpredictable.)

[nutildah]

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮

Let me help you with that.

That's a funny graph and I get the gist of what you are saying, but the fact is both healthcare and education are completely fucked in the U.S, and they weren't always subsidized by the federal taxpayer (at least not at the levels they are today).

Health insurance in the U.S. is a travesty. Doctors are the new lawyer class, simply existing to rake in as much money as they absolutely can at the expense of the unfortunate. University/college regents rake in 6 figure administrator jobs, along with their department chairs which never give up their reigns until death, even though its at the expense (both literal and figurative) of those they are supposed to serve.

Any time there's a general pool of money that can be easily accessed because the professions doing so are deemed noble or necessary, it will absolutely be taken advantage of and milked dry by those who figure out how to do so.

As a result, education and healthcare are far more expensive than what is reasonable, and the quality of both is on the decline.

[serveria.com]

We're about to leave $3xxx for good (well at least in foreseeable future) go BTC go! 

[bitserve]

The USA is corrupt.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies

You need an IQ of zero to not be able to figure out that education in the US is stupidly expensive because the US govt is underwriting the loans.  It's supply and demand.  There's a finite amount of teachers and classrooms, so if you create loans that anyone can take without putting up any collateral, EVERYONE will take them and cause the price to skyrocket to artificially high prices and then probably implode the financial and education system with it.  

If it was real capitalism, you would have to apply to a private lender without the govt involved and nobody would get student loans without putting up collateral, and yes, less people would get loans, but the ones who did get them would only take a few years to pay them back instead of 20+ years.  People claim the system HAS to exist this way to give a chance of upward ability to black noggers from the ghetto, but that's all a scam.  The system exists this way solely to drive up prices and force people into bigger loans that end in life long debt slavery.

It's a pity that even when you are correct in your assertions you feel the need to include your racist shit on it.

I am quoting you this time because your analysis is mostly right and applies to almost everything where you give the people access to easy credit. Also the same reason why government/states spend money like there were no tomorrow.