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Question: July 28 Closing Price:
<$3,000 - 6 (7.2%)
<$8,000 - 5 (6%)
$8,001-$8,500 - 2 (2.4%)
$8,501-$9,000 - 1 (1.2%)
$9,001-$9,500 - 11 (13.3%)
$9,501-$10,000 - 6 (7.2%)
$10,001-$10,500 - 8 (9.6%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 14 (16.9%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 8 (9.6%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 4 (4.8%)
$12,001-$12,500 - 4 (4.8%)
$12,501-$13,000 - 3 (3.6%)
$13,001-$13,500 - 2 (2.4%)
$13,501-$14,000 - 2 (2.4%)
>$14,000 - 3 (3.6%)
>$18,000 - 4 (4.8%)
Total Voters: 83

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21297413 times)
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Lambie Slayer
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March 08, 2019, 10:50:56 PM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.

It is not a prediction.  It is a description of various possible scenarios.  

Accordingly, those are conditions in which I am planning to convert my assessment of the current BTC market dynamics from current status of bear to bull.

Here is my opinion on this matter. All three scenarios would give one a very high probability of being correct in declaring a Bull Market. The nuance here that is important is that the Bull Market would not start on the day one of these conditions was met, it would still have begun on December 15, 2018. Bear Markets have a way of beating a lot of bulls down and making them set a very high bar for what it would take for them to consider the market to have flipped back to bull.

We might be close to agreement in part of this here statement, but let me explain a bit. 

This is not about whether anyone is getting "beaten down" or losing spirits, so we do not cheerlead in order to attempt to change the truth or the reality that we are in, but a significant difference in how a market is labelled would cause different outcomes in the assignment of probabilities for BTC price direction.

For example, in a bear market the probability for down might be 52/48  however in a bull market that probability for down might shift to 48/52.  It's an attempt at an objective assignment about probabilities NOT about how any one feels in particular.  Feelings don't matter very much when assigning probabilities, and they also might get in the way of reality to attempt to take them into account in terms of how you judge the market or how you might want others to feel about the BTC price or market situation.


I was very dedicated to accumulating stocks and index fund investments for years before Bitcoin came along and saved me. Bear and bull markets traditionally are measured by 20 percent moves, but this would be ridiculous in Bitcoin because by that metric we would have had countless bear and bull markets in the last ten years.

Agreed.  We are not going to use some of the traditional market measures here both because bitcoin is not anywhere near a mature market, and bitcoin is very likely in an scurve exponential adoption curve that overall skews its whole price performance dynamics more in terms of UP and explosive up, even though sometimes in the short term the explosive up dynamics and possibilities can get lost in the mix.

This forces us to arbitrarily pick what constitutes a Bull or Bear market.

It may feel arbitrary, and that is why I attempted to set forth some dynamics in which I would be ready and willing to change the label that I assign.


We are the pioneers laying down what future generations of coiners will consider traditional.

I don't know about that.  There may be some truth that there is no other asset class exactly like BTC previously or in the future, but once BTC matures, its market dynamics are likely going to change as well to those dynamics of a more mature market where traditional tools might become more applicable to it, perhaps?

I do think it is important to distinguish the difference between a circumstance giving one confidence that we are in a Bull Market, vs that circumstance marking the beginning of said Bull Market.

Even if subsequently, it is decided that the bullmarket started, as you said in December 2018, it does not change the current dynamic that we are not yet in such bullmarket in terms of current reasonable and prudent assignment of short term BTC price dynamic possibilities.  Currently, those market dynamics remain in favor of down, which is thus a bear market, so calling it otherwise is erroneous at least and perhaps deceptive.

You might say that for a sports team that has languished through terrible seasons to have turned itself around and have a good season that the team would need to meet a goal like making the playoffs, or having a winning record 3 quarters into the season, etc.

Could be a fair analogy.

However if the team gets to the playoffs and you say, well there you go, that team that used to be trash is having a good season, you would be correct. It would also be correct to point out that the good season started in the first play of the first regular season game and the former trash team was having a good season all along, many just didnt believe in them till they made the playoffs.

fair enough.. but who cares?  The odds were against such trashy team until a certain momentum point.

A few hardcore fans would have been going to pre-season games and cheering on their beloved team from the beginning.

Again, you can cheer all you want, but it does not change dynamics.  The outcome is not inevitable, and even though the outcome ends up becoming 100%, once it happens, it does not change the dynamics that the outcome might have been 48% two months earlier. or even two days before when the unlikely outcome ended up actually happening against the odds.

It is stupid and irresponsible to call any outcome as 100%, especially when in the future.


Bitcoin has had a shit season, no doubt. I believe that Bitcoin will make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl, win the World Series, win the Stanley Cup, win the Masters, win the World Cup, unify the boxing heavyweight titles, and win the UFC heavyweight championship. I realize many wont believe until they see more results, but I say.................

83 days into the new Baby Bull Market and all is well Cheesy

You can believe all you want, that does not change where we are at, currently, which is in a bear market with 48/52 or whatever odds in favor/against short term up or phrased another way the bottom NOT actually being "in"..

Nobody ever said 100 percent. Nothing is 100 percent, this is just obvious. You say its stupid to call an outcome 100 percent, well I agree with this, never claimed 100 percent accuracy, and will point out this is no revelation.  

You have your opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bear Market, I have my opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bull Market and the bottom is in. Neither one of us can prove it, only time will do that.  Parading your opinion that market conditions favor down as fact would be deceptive. This is an observation, not an accusation. Admitting its just what you think and anything is possible is fair and honest. Its just your best guess. We are all guessing when it comes to predicting the future. I figured this was a given, but I dont mind pointing it out if its not. Nobody expects every post to have a boilerplate disclaimer paragraph at the bottom of each post explaining how its possible that their predictions might not be 100 percent correct.

Anyway, thanks for the civil response.  Smiley

I still firmly believe we are 83 days into a Bull Market. This is my current view and only a break to new lows or some major fundamental change will change my opinion.  Grin



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March 08, 2019, 10:56:46 PM

A small shake. 80 bucks or so. Come on, whales, you can do better.
Boring weekend? Should we archive our dildos for the time being?
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March 08, 2019, 11:07:06 PM

A small shake. 80 bucks or so. Come on, whales, you can do better.
Boring weekend? Should we archive our dildos for the time being?


Meh, still prefer a small shake UP and say 80 bucks or so. Come on, Bulls, you can do better.
Boring weekend? When dildo? When serious CCMF’s ? Etc
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March 08, 2019, 11:08:33 PM


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VjlGwSBvL6g
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March 08, 2019, 11:11:30 PM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Given the upward slope of every long term support/trend line, $3,320 in 11 months would put is in bad shape, as I believe it would violate pretty much all long term bull lines.

hahahahaha

I guess my thinking is not straight on the topic then.  My idea of minimum standards and anti-fragility might be pie in the sky?  Perhaps?  because I do not consider bitcoin to be dead under those kinds of extreme flat conditions... though if it really does happen, then I might reconsider if I believe that, then, it is time to convert from thinking of the BTC price situation as a bull market and having had transformed out of our current ongoing bear market (until otherwise*) status.'

(*o.k.  Lambie, I am stealing some of your descriptive choices and reframing such descriptions in my own way of thinking about the matter.. you probably stole that phraseology first, so I am not too worried about it.   Tongue Tongue)

Steal away my friend Cheesy Only so many words in the English language, we all have to steal something!
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March 08, 2019, 11:15:21 PM

I bought a little on this small dip.
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March 08, 2019, 11:17:52 PM
Merited by bones261 (1)

A small shake. 80 bucks or so.

I bought a little on this small dip.

Its like a small infant...it requires burping upon occasion. Still, higher highs and higher lows...seems good.


#stronghands'19
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March 08, 2019, 11:21:02 PM

I bought a little on this small dip.

Me too, Stack Satoshis Saturday is here. Grin Bull Market dips were made to be bought.
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March 08, 2019, 11:22:17 PM
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According to the 2014 / 15 crypto market schedule, the train is running on time.



This really is a fractal

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March 08, 2019, 11:40:05 PM

According to the 2014 / 15 crypto market schedule, the train is running on time.


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March 08, 2019, 11:51:56 PM

[ edited out]

Nobody ever said 100 percent. Nothing is 100 percent, this is just obvious. You say its stupid to call an outcome 100 percent, well I agree with this, never claimed 100 percent accuracy, and will point out this is no revelation.  

Words have meaning.  So sometimes your words will add up to too high of a level of certainty, so even if the implied meaning is less than 100%, the words are still committing too much to describing the future with too high degrees of certainty.

You have your opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bear Market, I have my opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bull Market and the bottom is in.

No problem.  I never suggested that people have to agree here, but if you start saying ridiculous things, that can cause responses from peeps like me.

Neither one of us can prove it, only time will do that.  

There is no need to prove a prediction.  Anyone can make predictions; however, if you express predictions as anywhere near certainty, even if you are not using terms such as "100%" blah blah blah, if you are stating matters in way too certain ways, then you are likely to get disagreement responses.. or just people telling you to shut up with your seeming sorcery nonsense.

Parading your opinion that market conditions favor down as fact would be deceptive.

I am not sure whether what I am saying is as severe as you seem to be trying to make it out to be.  Currently, all I am saying on a personal and more specific level is that the odds for down are 52% and the odds for up are 48%.  There is nothing outrageous about that because what I am saying is only slightly in favor of down, so the difference between the odds for up and down are not even very different from one another.. only just slightly in favor of down.

This is an observation, not an accusation.

Hey, until we broke below $6k, I was frequently attacking various posters for "prematurely" saying that we were in a bear market.. but once we broke below $6k, such description seemed to have become more accurate... or at least fair.

By the way, I would not get on your case as much if you were asserting that we are in a bull market since 2009, but instead you are trying to frame your stupid ass position from 83 days.. which is ridiculous, especially since the peak of the price was more than a year ago, and you are merely trying to select the last 83 days from that in order to make your claim.   So to give you a hint, I would likely not be so combative against your position if you were at least picking a point before December 2017 as your starting point, and you would have to go back to September 2017 or earlier for that and for your claim to a bull market makes reasonable sense in terms of both facts and logic.

As your claim stands now 83 or even 84 days makes no sense because it is a mere selective presentation.

Admitting its just what you think and anything is possible is fair and honest. Its just your best guess.

Are you trying to throw out all logic?  It's like when people are comparing politicians and varying levels of corruption. Sometimes at a certain point they just throw up their hands and assert that all politics are corrupt, even though there are degrees of corruption.

We are all guessing when it comes to predicting the future.

I don't think so.  You might be admitting to guessing.  I am not admitting to that.  I am attempting to assign probabilities to various outcomes.  Yes, I might end up being wrong, but I am not guessing.

I figured this was a given, but I dont mind pointing it out if its not.

Maybe that is part of the flaw in your presentation, if you try to assume too much about community expectations and what is presumed to be our logical or factual starting point(s)?

Nobody expects every post to have a boilerplate disclaimer paragraph at the bottom of each post explaining how its possible that their predictions might not be 100 percent correct.

I agree.  You don't have to do that.  Each of us have different ways of expressing our ideas, and also I understand in real world parlance there is a tendency to speak in absolutes.  However, if we are dealing with differing opinions shared on the interwebs, there might be ways that are more effective and less effective in terms of avoiding combative responses, if you are trying to avoid combative responses.  No matter what there is going to be some negative feedback, too.  That comes with the territory of active participation in a vast majority of public threads.

Anyway, thanks for the civil response.  Smiley

So far so good.  I only called you names a few times, and so far, you have only called me names a few times, so maybe we are mostly staying on-topic?


I still firmly believe we are 83 days into a Bull Market. This is my current view and only a break to new lows or some major fundamental change will change my opinion.  Grin

Now that you went through your whole litany of responses, what is your reason for your belief that we are in a bull market?  When did your belief trigger?  On December 16, as soon as the onslaught was over?  You have been making the assertion for a while, so at what point did it start?  How do you define reversal? What points triggered "reversal"?  Merely your belief and guess?
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March 08, 2019, 11:53:41 PM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Given the upward slope of every long term support/trend line, $3,320 in 11 months would put is in bad shape, as I believe it would violate pretty much all long term bull lines.

hahahahaha

I guess my thinking is not straight on the topic then.  My idea of minimum standards and anti-fragility might be pie in the sky?  Perhaps?  because I do not consider bitcoin to be dead under those kinds of extreme flat conditions... though if it really does happen, then I might reconsider if I believe that, then, it is time to convert from thinking of the BTC price situation as a bull market and having had transformed out of our current ongoing bear market (until otherwise*) status.'

(*o.k.  Lambie, I am stealing some of your descriptive choices and reframing such descriptions in my own way of thinking about the matter.. you probably stole that phraseology first, so I am not too worried about it.   Tongue Tongue)

Steal away my friend Cheesy Only so many words in the English language, we all have to steal something!

Sharing is caring.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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March 09, 2019, 12:02:27 AM

Less than 1% of the world’s population has used bitcoin.

More than 50% of the world’s population lives under an authoritarian regime.

Bitcoin may not be ready for you, but, it’s ready for them.

https://twitter.com/alecziupsnys/status/1104004855574773761?s=21
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March 09, 2019, 12:05:09 AM
Merited by micgoossens (1)

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮


College tuition in Belgium

Quote
Tuition fees at public universities and colleges in the French Community of Belgium are set by the regional government. For the academic year 2015/2016, tuition fees ranged from 374 to 836.96 EUR per year for EU students depending on their income and whether they are eligible for a grant/scholarship.

There are other reasons.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies
I'm in Europe and University has gone to shit here. The Bachelor/Master system is a complete downgrade and utter disgrace from what we had before in a country undisclosed. University is now school round two instead of being an institution that fosters research and critical thinking (in non-research students - which make up the majority of the student body). I was appalled at how cookie cutter Mathematics and Physics programs are and surprised at the resulting quality of graduates (before I realized the problem).

Also, thanks to university "being" (appearing) free, people who can't normally afford it are taking up bullshit recreational courses that don't produce any value in the Economy. I don't have anything against those and am interested in some of the topics myself. But when people get fooled into believing that they can study anything and get a job there's a problem. And when it's "free" they are ridden of any incentive to think about the implications of their actions.

I totally agree with you, especially regarding the The Bachelor/Master system.
But I also think that the government more or less pushing everybody in to university studies is to blame, it's become more like high school than university, with some exceptions.,When I studied in the late 80s early 90s it was still a bit special to study at a university, today it seems more or less mandatory.

The last point is also quite interesting. It really does seem as if a degree was mandatory.

But in reality, any self-driven and somewhat disciplined person would be able to learn much more by just not going to university and focusing on their profession of choice. University takes up too much time on mundane repetitive nonsense that doesn't teach you anything of value and takes time away from building a portfolio of work, while simultaneously driving most students into just blatantly copying assignments without learning anything.


When I was teaching I had to give classes and correct assignments, and 70% of them were identical (including spelling and grammatical errors).

As a job it was nice, because I'd have one pile of assignments where I marked the first one and then only copied off the final points, without any notes. That resulted in an hourly wage of over 60 Euros.

But when thinking about the implications for society that's just sad.


Which doesn't mean that University (even in it's current state) has no place at all, as anyone who needs someone or something to kick their asses to be productive can still benefit from them. But in most cases they just exacerbate the underlying problem that starts in elementary school. Namely turning curious and motivated kids into retarded unmotivated copy/paste drones.
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March 09, 2019, 12:06:12 AM

According to the 2014 / 15 crypto market schedule, the train is running on time.



This really is a fractal



So much that it is scary. I mean, if at any time it breaks the pattern......
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March 09, 2019, 12:10:25 AM

I am kinda anti anything when it comes to big businesses but I have to say that I do enjoy it when Google puts together something worthwhile, such as their tribute to International Women's Day.

All you misogynists should take the time to look through some of the incredible achievements that women have accomplished.

Happy wahmen's day.



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PIW (precious independent woman) gotta love them ..... if they are in you’re range of availibility Smiley
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March 09, 2019, 12:14:05 AM

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive?


College tuition in Belgium

Quote
Tuition fees at public universities and colleges in the French Community of Belgium are set by the regional government. For the academic year 2015/2016, tuition fees ranged from 374 to 836.96 EUR per year for EU students depending on their income and whether they are eligible for a grant/scholarship.

There are other reasons.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies
I'm in Europe and University has gone to shit here. The Bachelor/Master system is a complete downgrade and utter disgrace from what we had before in a country undisclosed. University is now school round two instead of being an institution that fosters research and critical thinking (in non-research students - which make up the majority of the student body). I was appalled at how cookie cutter Mathematics and Physics programs are and surprised at the resulting quality of graduates (before I realized the problem).

Also, thanks to university "being" (appearing) free, people who can't normally afford it are taking up bullshit recreational courses that don't produce any value in the Economy. I don't have anything against those and am interested in some of the topics myself. But when people get fooled into believing that they can study anything and get a job there's a problem. And when it's "free" they are ridden of any incentive to think about the implications of their actions.

I totally agree with you, especially regarding the The Bachelor/Master system.
But I also think that the government more or less pushing everybody in to university studies is to blame, it's become more like high school than university, with some exceptions.,When I studied in the late 80s early 90s it was still a bit special to study at a university, today it seems more or less mandatory.

The last point is also quite interesting. It really does seem as if a degree was mandatory.

But in reality, any self-driven and somewhat disciplined person would be able to learn much more by just not going to university and focusing on their profession of choice. University takes up too much time on mundane repetitive nonsense that doesn't teach you anything of value and takes time away from building a portfolio of work, while simultaneously driving most students into just blatantly copying assignments without learning anything.


When I was teaching I had to give classes and correct assignments, and 70% of them were identical (including spelling and grammatical errors).

As a job it was nice, because I'd have one pile of assignments where I marked the first one and then only copied off the final points, without any notes. That resulted in an hourly wage of over 60 Euros.

But when thinking about the implications for society that's just sad.


Which doesn't mean that University (even in it's current state) has no place at all, as anyone who needs someone or something to kick their asses to be productive can still benefit from them. But in most cases they just exacerbate the underlying problem that starts in elementary school. Namely turning curious and motivated kids into retarded unmotivated copy/paste drones.

Dammit i become one of those copy/paste robot drones Roll Eyes
Twitter—>copy—-> paste Roll Eyes

WoW of to the next place, this local El Nido AirPort is so small, check in, walk out into the plain (love those fast AirPorts)
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March 09, 2019, 12:26:20 AM

Because more of the population needs to be there the level has been degraded on purpose. The degrees are inflated like fiat currency.

Especially the alpha studies are complete nonsense with mandatory attendance based grading. With the ever more free availability of information I think the future of universities as part of the education system will come to an end in the next decades allowing them to focus on research once more.

btw: Did you read about the US university last week which wants to start grading on effort instead of merit. LMFAO!
Not in the least surprised, although this is the first time I've heard of it. If governments would block that I would consider being for them, but they just make almost everything worse that they touch. Mostly because politicians aren't required to be the intellectual elite of the world, or even base their actions on logic and reason with public accountability.


The one and only thing that I am on the fence about with regard to governments is the rule of law. I appreciate that, although I am not 100% sure how much it's doing. I don't see humans allowing scum to roam freely, regardless of government intervention. Things might be much more brutal and cutthroat without, but then people would think twice before acting up.

Not saying that the rule of law is bad and I'm certainly not willing to take the risk of dropping it even for an experiment, but I'm not fully convinced that it's as important as it seems. Still, that's about the one and only thing that I can think of that I would give governments credit for. And even then, it mostly exists to protect the people in power with everything else being a pleasant side-effect. Everything else so far seems to be more harmful than productive, even if the supposed goals are, from time to time, positive.
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March 09, 2019, 12:30:46 AM

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Can use one of these Wink
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March 09, 2019, 12:42:52 AM

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1103988093793783809?s=21
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