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Question: July 28 Closing Price:
<$3,000 - 6 (7.5%)
<$8,000 - 5 (6.3%)
$8,001-$8,500 - 2 (2.5%)
$8,501-$9,000 - 1 (1.3%)
$9,001-$9,500 - 11 (13.8%)
$9,501-$10,000 - 6 (7.5%)
$10,001-$10,500 - 8 (10%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 14 (17.5%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 7 (8.8%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 3 (3.8%)
$12,001-$12,500 - 4 (5%)
$12,501-$13,000 - 3 (3.8%)
$13,001-$13,500 - 2 (2.5%)
$13,501-$14,000 - 2 (2.5%)
>$14,000 - 3 (3.8%)
>$18,000 - 3 (3.8%)
Total Voters: 80

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21296816 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
BTCMILLIONAIRE
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March 09, 2019, 12:51:18 AM

https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2019/03/us-marshals-want-help-disposing-virtual-currencies/155381/
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Stored cryptocurrencies must be kept in a segregated digital wallet set aside specifically for the Marshals Service and must be safeguarded against “theft, human error, system failures and acts of God,” the documents state. The contractor must also be able to “brute force,” or be able to hack into, wallets that are “locked by error or technical difficulties,” enabling marshals to gain access no matter what happens.

On the disposal side, the winning vendor must be able to convert the digital currencies to physical money, either by exchanging directly to U.S. dollars, exchanging for more liquid virtual currencies and assets or through a sealed-bid auction. The contractor must also have a mechanism for returning seized assets to the original owners when required.
....
Has anyone made projections on potential permanent loss of Bitcoins resulting from seizure due to criminal activity over time?
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March 09, 2019, 12:58:16 AM

https://gizmodo.com/u-s-army-assures-public-that-robot-tank-system-adheres-1833061674
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In its request, the Army asked for help enabling the Advanced Targeting and Lethality Automated System (ATLAS) to “acquire, identify, and engage targets at least 3X faster than the current manual process.” But that language apparently scared some people who are worried about the rise of AI-powered killing machines.



meanwhile the price is really trying to go up

I never understood the whole human fetish. Sure, we might be in human shells, but how exactly is it bad to swap them out once possible? We've technically done so through evolution anyways, so nothing new is happening here other than the increased speed.

I'm also pretty sure that virtually nobody would say no if they could swap between flying around as a bird and their usual human shell. This isn't really any different other than a gross misunderstanding of what constitutes as life.
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March 09, 2019, 01:09:28 AM
Merited by BTCMILLIONAIRE (1)

Exactly, it's about being an individual, a personality. The physical form is secondary (yet bound to some minimum requirements regarding sensing, interacting and mobility to be able to develop personality to a sufficient degree).

I see AI or "non-biological" form or some hybrid solution the next evolutionary leap. Yes it can be evolution if it's designed as many things will be designed and compete for survival.
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March 09, 2019, 01:14:54 AM

Funny how accurate the tweet is. Here's a comment from the video:

"Tom7
1 day ago
Exciting times. So glad all the NPCs parroting "BSV is a scam" will not be a part of this future, Bitcoin is truly an IQ test. "

And his avatar is the Indian guy wearing clothes made of gold.



And while I'm not sure it means much, since I'm quite biased against SV, the guy in the video looks disingenuous as hell and like the type of person I would never drop my guard around.
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March 09, 2019, 01:16:04 AM

[ edited out]

Nobody ever said 100 percent. Nothing is 100 percent, this is just obvious. You say its stupid to call an outcome 100 percent, well I agree with this, never claimed 100 percent accuracy, and will point out this is no revelation.  

Words have meaning.  So sometimes your words will add up to too high of a level of certainty, so even if the implied meaning is less than 100%, the words are still committing too much to describing the future with too high degrees of certainty.

You have your opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bear Market, I have my opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bull Market and the bottom is in.

No problem.  I never suggested that people have to agree here, but if you start saying ridiculous things, that can cause responses from peeps like me.

Neither one of us can prove it, only time will do that.  

There is no need to prove a prediction.  Anyone can make predictions; however, if you express predictions as anywhere near certainty, even if you are not using terms such as "100%" blah blah blah, if you are stating matters in way too certain ways, then you are likely to get disagreement responses.. or just people telling you to shut up with your seeming sorcery nonsense.

Parading your opinion that market conditions favor down as fact would be deceptive.

I am not sure whether what I am saying is as severe as you seem to be trying to make it out to be.  Currently, all I am saying on a personal and more specific level is that the odds for down are 52% and the odds for up are 48%.  There is nothing outrageous about that because what I am saying is only slightly in favor of down, so the difference between the odds for up and down are not even very different from one another.. only just slightly in favor of down.

This is an observation, not an accusation.

Hey, until we broke below $6k, I was frequently attacking various posters for "prematurely" saying that we were in a bear market.. but once we broke below $6k, such description seemed to have become more accurate... or at least fair.

By the way, I would not get on your case as much if you were asserting that we are in a bull market since 2009, but instead you are trying to frame your stupid ass position from 83 days.. which is ridiculous, especially since the peak of the price was more than a year ago, and you are merely trying to select the last 83 days from that in order to make your claim.   So to give you a hint, I would likely not be so combative against your position if you were at least picking a point before December 2017 as your starting point, and you would have to go back to September 2017 or earlier for that and for your claim to a bull market makes reasonable sense in terms of both facts and logic.

As your claim stands now 83 or even 84 days makes no sense because it is a mere selective presentation.

Admitting its just what you think and anything is possible is fair and honest. Its just your best guess.

Are you trying to throw out all logic?  It's like when people are comparing politicians and varying levels of corruption. Sometimes at a certain point they just throw up their hands and assert that all politics are corrupt, even though there are degrees of corruption.

We are all guessing when it comes to predicting the future.

I don't think so.  You might be admitting to guessing.  I am not admitting to that.  I am attempting to assign probabilities to various outcomes.  Yes, I might end up being wrong, but I am not guessing.

I figured this was a given, but I dont mind pointing it out if its not.

Maybe that is part of the flaw in your presentation, if you try to assume too much about community expectations and what is presumed to be our logical or factual starting point(s)?

Nobody expects every post to have a boilerplate disclaimer paragraph at the bottom of each post explaining how its possible that their predictions might not be 100 percent correct.

I agree.  You don't have to do that.  Each of us have different ways of expressing our ideas, and also I understand in real world parlance there is a tendency to speak in absolutes.  However, if we are dealing with differing opinions shared on the interwebs, there might be ways that are more effective and less effective in terms of avoiding combative responses, if you are trying to avoid combative responses.  No matter what there is going to be some negative feedback, too.  That comes with the territory of active participation in a vast majority of public threads.

Anyway, thanks for the civil response.  Smiley

So far so good.  I only called you names a few times, and so far, you have only called me names a few times, so maybe we are mostly staying on-topic?


I still firmly believe we are 83 days into a Bull Market. This is my current view and only a break to new lows or some major fundamental change will change my opinion.  Grin

Now that you went through your whole litany of responses, what is your reason for your belief that we are in a bull market?  When did your belief trigger?  On December 16, as soon as the onslaught was over?  You have been making the assertion for a while, so at what point did it start?  How do you define reversal? What points triggered "reversal"?  Merely your belief and guess?

I missed the name calling on both sides. Glad we agree on the boilerplate part. As far as labeling our probabilities of future outcomes as guesses, I stand by that. The scientific method is based on hypotheses which are educated guesses based on prior knowledge and observation. Im not implying your guesses are random dart throws, but the implication is we make our best guesses, based on prior knowledge and observation. If you arent guessing, then you would be 100 percent certain. Basically you might not prefer my word choice(no worries), but it is accurate based on widely accepted definitions.

As for answering your last questions. These are good questions and while I do enjoy sharing my hypothesis that the bottom is in and the bull market is upon us, I at this time am not willing to share all of the inner workings and procedures that led to this decision, so I will have to respectfully decline those questions. Some of my knowledge and procedures I consider to be "proprietary" for lack of a better word. Im not selling anything to anyone, but it is the fruit of my labor from 16 years of investing and trading so I will keep the sauce recipe to myself. I will be serving that sauce though on Bear Meat to anyone who would like a sample Grin

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March 09, 2019, 01:18:28 AM

According to the 2014 / 15 crypto market schedule, the train is running on time.



This really is a fractal



So much that it is scary. I mean, if at any time it breaks the pattern......
Scary? Imagine if she keeps it, or breaks up.
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March 09, 2019, 01:22:36 AM

According to the 2014 / 15 crypto market schedule, the train is running on time.



This really is a fractal



So much that it is scary. I mean, if at any time it breaks the pattern......
Scary? Imagine if she keeps it, or breaks up.


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March 09, 2019, 01:28:53 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Dammit i become one of those copy/paste robot drones Roll Eyes
Twitter—>copy—-> paste Roll Eyes

WoW of to the next place, this local El Nido AirPort is so small, check in, walk out into the plain (love those fast AirPorts)
Copy/paste has its place. There's no need to reinvent the wheel every single time.

To elaborate on my previous post. Copy/paste becomes a problem when it becomes the natural mindset for every situation with no attempts to generate unique thoughts. Also, people who fall into that category truly believe that whatever they happened to copy/paste is truth.
It also stops people from even considering other options, because school teaches you that one specific set of solutions is right, while others don't matter and/or are plain wrong. Reality could not be any further from that though.
Children are generally curious and open to everything, this changes once they hit school (or once their parents get tired of them asking questions).
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March 09, 2019, 01:30:50 AM

According to the 2014 / 15 crypto market schedule, the train is running on time.



This really is a fractal



So much that it is scary. I mean, if at any time it breaks the pattern......
Scary? Imagine if she keeps it, or breaks up.

I am in "capitulation" mode, remember. I am prepared for the worst... for the best I don't need to.

I don't like everyone is expecting to keep the pattern or even breaking up from it. We need more blood, depression and despair before a solid ath-worthy bull run.

That being said, today's bounce was nice even if with a shitty volume.
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March 09, 2019, 02:05:02 AM

This really is a fractal



So much that it is scary. I mean, if at any time it breaks the pattern......
Scary? Imagine if she keeps it, or breaks up.

I am in "capitulation" mode, remember. I am prepared for the worst... for the best I don't need to.

I don't like everyone is expecting to keep the pattern or even breaking up from it. We need more blood, depression and despair before a solid ath-worthy bull run.

Joking apart, I don't know what to think myself. I also am inclined to think some real despair is needed before the strong hands can move on.

As time passes, however, I see trend lines reversing and don't know what to make of it. What I've seen, a few times already, is that when she moves, she moves suddenly and unexpectedly. So we may be in for a rough ride indeed.

There are a couple of critical moments when the likeliness of traumatic plunges will be higher. Someone here mentioned the first half of May, and I thought it was a smart point. Can't remember what it was, though. Besides, I'm sure other keen participants would be able to provide hypotheses that are just as smart, while predicting the opposite.

So what do we know? Hodl.
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no FOMO


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March 09, 2019, 02:28:18 AM

I might be alone with this but this modern day political correctness shit is annoying. I’m not interested in International Women’s Day.

Sounds like a load of bull shit to me.

Rear Admiral Hopper disapproves

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March 09, 2019, 02:36:24 AM

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-08/fake-moneys-face-value-deceit

"So it was, with dishonest intentions, that he burgled a rare coin collection with no clue what it was that he’d taken.  To his soft and greedy mind all he saw was a hoard of coins with a face value of One Dollar.  Thus, he redeemed them for cash.  Zero Hedge offers the details:

“After stealing a rare coin collection from an elderly and disabled retiree, Shane Anthony Mele, dumped what their owner said was at least $33,000 worth of collectible coins down a Coin Star machine at a Florida supermarket and collected their face value, receiving about $30 – enough for a couple of 12 packs.”"

I hope he at least got 30 dollars worth of Bitcoin.  Roll Eyes
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March 09, 2019, 02:45:07 AM

Bcash boys dumps are getting smaller and smaller. Soon we smash through 4k.

Its a Bull Market ya know Cheesy
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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March 09, 2019, 02:48:45 AM

Dammit i become one of those copy/paste robot drones Roll Eyes
Twitter—>copy—-> paste Roll Eyes 

The members of the mcpeep team should form a union, and attempt to negotiate for better working conditions.   

Hardly are some of the members going to get much sympathy, when such team efforts involve El Nido travels.

On the other hand, there could be moar resentment and friction among team members who didn't get to join the El Nido, etc, trip?  Perhaps?
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March 09, 2019, 02:48:54 AM

This really is a fractal



So much that it is scary. I mean, if at any time it breaks the pattern......
Scary? Imagine if she keeps it, or breaks up.

I am in "capitulation" mode, remember. I am prepared for the worst... for the best I don't need to.

I don't like everyone is expecting to keep the pattern or even breaking up from it. We need more blood, depression and despair before a solid ath-worthy bull run.

Joking apart, I don't know what to think myself. I also am inclined to think some real despair is needed before the strong hands can move on.

As time passes, however, I see trend lines reversing and don't know what to make of it. What I've seen, a few times already, is that when she moves, she moves suddenly and unexpectedly. So we may be in for a rough ride indeed.

There are a couple of critical moments when the likeliness of traumatic plunges will be higher. Someone here mentioned the first half of May, and I thought it was a smart point. Can't remember what it was, though. Besides, I'm sure other keen participants would be able to provide hypotheses that are just as smart, while predicting the opposite.

So what do we know? Hodl.

Agreed. HODL.
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March 09, 2019, 02:51:48 AM

I might be alone with this but this modern day political correctness shit is annoying. I’m not interested in International Women’s Day.

Sounds like a load of bull shit to me.


It is. You are not alone. But those are the times. Adapt.
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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March 09, 2019, 03:06:03 AM
Merited by Globb0 (1)

Dammit i become one of those copy/paste robot drones Roll Eyes
Twitter—>copy—-> paste Roll Eyes 

The members of the mcpeep team should form a union, and attempt to negotiate for better working conditions.   

Hardly are some of the members going to get much sympathy, when such team efforts involve El Nido travels.

On the other hand, there could be moar resentment and friction among team members who didn't get to join the El Nido, etc, trip?  Perhaps?

El Nido lays in the past almost @ bantayan island..... for team building.....

You should do Some travelling as well, give those writing fingers a break, Will do you good  Tongue

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March 09, 2019, 03:08:45 AM
Last edit: March 09, 2019, 03:29:07 AM by HairyMaclairy
Merited by bitserve (1)

I don't like everyone is expecting to keep the pattern or even breaking up from it. We need more blood, depression and despair before a solid ath-worthy bull run.

1.  I don't expect to break up.
2.  Everyone is still looking for the final volume spike to flag the bottom, which is a good reason why it may never happen.  Instead everyone is already accumulating.
3.  If you believe in Wall Street's preferred measure (CME Bitcoin Futures), we have already had the volume spike to seal the bottom.

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March 09, 2019, 03:56:33 AM

[ edited out]

I missed the name calling on both sides. Glad we agree on the boilerplate part. As far as labeling our probabilities of future outcomes as guesses, I stand by that.

Maybe now, we are meandering into the extent to which guesses are involved in this whole matter, or how to categorize what is a guess?

In the past few hours, I have been attempting to reflect a bit on what point you have been attempting to make with your seeming ongoing desire and persistence to label what is going on as a "bull market" or a "baby bull market," and your earlier "baby bull market" kind of gives away what you are attempting to achieve.

Largely you are trying to argue that you are pretty convinced that for whatever reason you believe that the bottom is in, and this price downtrend is reversed.  You are trying to emphasize your point by labelling the matter as a baby bull market.  Some of the rest of the matters that you are throwing in are not as central to those kinds of main points that you are trying to make with your labelling our current status as a "bull market" or "baby bull market."  And, you are largely both attempting to be predictive with your implication that the "bottom is in", and you may end up being right, but you also seem to be attempting to provide a kind of spin doctor reality to the matter by suggesting that if we all begin to believe that the bottom is in then we will act in such a way that causes the description to fulfill the prescription.

I have called you a troll, and other similar names a few times, because I had been kind of questioning some of your exaggeration intentions; however, I may be developing a little more sympathy for your whole framing of the matter if I am correct about your intention to merely cause more bullish thinking that might assist to make what you want to be reality come true.

I don't have any problem with having bullish intentions, because as you likely pointed out several times, I am a bitcoin bull myself, and my investment practices and behaviors in bitcoin attempt to reflect my bitcoin bullish sentiments and beliefs.  Nonetheless, I question how much utility comes from what seems to me to be exaggerations that are likely NOT going to change the market anyhow, and could actually result in a lot of blowback when your seeming exaggerations end up NOT even coming close to coming true.

So, for me, it may be more of a personal tone matter in which I believe in having low expectations in order that it is way more likely that my expectations are going to be reached and exceeded - because I have found that if I create or follow higher expectations or exaggeration, then there is a real high likelihood that its going to end in a lot of disappointment when those exaggerations and high expectations are not reached.  

The scientific method is based on hypotheses which are educated guesses based on prior knowledge and observation.

You are getting into a different field here, and I doubt that we need to go down the "scientific method" road in order to understand what people do.  We are not scientists, but we still are easily capable of assigning various probabilities to future events and outcomes.  Some events and outcomes are highly probable and some are not, and each person is going to assign varying probabilities to various outcomes and the compounding of calculations which might involve pure guessing in some cases is likely going cause a whole hell of a lot of different views about the future, even if there is agreement on some aspects.  For example, both of us might assign a real high probability that the sun is going to come up tomorrow even if we have differing views about the dynamics that cause that.  Predicting human behavior and markets (that involve a lot of human behavior) are way more complicated, and we do not necessarily need scientific methods to attempt to employ various kinds of probability theory, even though sometimes people with scientific minds and thinking are going to have more specialized approaches, but there are a whole hell of a lot of really smart people and scientists who don't know what they fuck they are talking about in regards to bitcoin matters (even if they might have opinions about it).. hahahahahaha

Im not implying your guesses are random dart throws,

hahahahaha  good.... however, just the fact that you bring that up seems to show that you are assigning way more randomness to opinions than they likely deserve, including the opinions of yours truly.   Tongue Tongue

but the implication is we make our best guesses, based on prior knowledge and observation.

Fair enough about this point.

If you arent guessing, then you would be 100 percent certain.

There is no need to lump all aspects of knowledge into one category.  Like I attempted to describe above, there are certain categories of information that are more certain than others and even more undisputed.  Like we are going to agree about what is going to happen, so for example, if we talk about bitcoin's halvening, we can agree to a lot of aspects about it, and if we talk about how many BTCs are produced per 10 minutes and about how miners might increase or decrease their hashing power based on BTC price.  However, the more factors that we attempt to account, the harder it comes to both assign probabilities to the behavior or what kind of an impact those factors are going to have on the BTC price and even the extent to which one factor or another matters or how other people might view the event, including how much weight to give to BTC price momentum versus news versus fundamentals versus public perceptions or regulations.  

What I am trying to say is that we are going to weigh various factors differently, and even come to differing weighing of their impact on bitcoin and there will also be some guessing involved too.  Some people have access to more information, and do not have to guess as much as others about certain aspects, but still it is quite likely that no one really knows while at the same time no one is completely guessing about everything either.  By the way, some people seem to make some of their guesses/predictions based on a combination of numerology and conspiracy theories about bitcoin manipulation, and sometimes they might end up being correct, too.

Basically you might not prefer my word choice(no worries), but it is accurate based on widely accepted definitions.

There are word choices and there can also be questions about what factors are being considered and how much weight is given to factors and how much pure guessing might be going on.


As for answering your last questions. These are good questions and while I do enjoy sharing my hypothesis that the bottom is in and the bull market is upon us, I at this time am not willing to share all of the inner workings and procedures that led to this decision, so I will have to respectfully decline those questions.

That above is a real bullshit and seemingly disingenuous troll answer.  I had made questions that are so easy peasy that almost any genuine poster should have been able to at least make some kind of stab at disclosing which BTC price points or what factors caused them to arrive at their conclusion about when the bull market or "baby bull market" in this case and your terms was triggered and/or entered into.  

The fact that you don't even make any kind of reasonable attempt shows that you are either acting disingenuously (as a kind of troll), that you are a dumbass (I don't think that is the case, by the way) or that you are purely making shit up (guessing) just for the mere sake of it.

In other words, based on your already demonstration of writing and analyzing abilities (including your demonstration of your detailed trolling efforts aimed largely at roach and gembitz), it should be quite easy for you to write out something like this:

>>>>>>>>Between December 7 and December 15, I saw that the bears had put in a lot of effort to attempt to bring the BTC price down, and the best that they got on December 15 was $3,122.  Subsequently, by December 21 and December 25, the BTC price rebounded to $4,100 and $4,200 respectively.  At no later point have the bears been able to bring the BTC price down below $3,300.....blah blah blah<<<<<<

You should have easily been able to come up with some kind of plausible and seemingly genuine bullshit ideas to show that you are at least attempting to make an effort in the right direction, but instead you play the "trade secrets" phoney baloney card... Your handler told you to say something like that?  hahahahahaha


Some of my knowledge and procedures I consider to be "proprietary" for lack of a better word. Im not selling anything to anyone, but it is the fruit of my labor from 16 years of investing and trading so I will keep the sauce recipe to myself.

Oh my!!!!! I have heard this kind of nonsense before when I troll attempts to avoid answering by playing both the expertise card and the trade secrets card.  

Not believe-able.  You gotta try harder.. or actually try less hard.  Being genuine does not take a lot of effort, but when you are not genuine, your bullshit will tend to seep through, which likely shows that my time is being wasted attempting to explain some of these basic concepts to a disingenuous poster..

I will be serving that sauce though on Bear Meat to anyone who would like a sample Grin

Not convincing... after reading your previous few sentences.
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March 09, 2019, 04:19:58 AM

racist shit

I agree, these Japanese are out of control depicting Italians as dago plumbers for the last three decades.
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