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Question: Feb. 15 Closing Price:
$0 - 3 (2.7%)
<$8,500 - 6 (5.4%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 3 (2.7%)
$9,001-$9,500 - 2 (1.8%)
$9,501-$10,000 - 9 (8%)
$10,001-$10,500 - 28 (25%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 21 (18.8%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 14 (12.5%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 7 (6.3%)
>$12,000 - 10 (8.9%)
>$30,000 - 9 (8%)
Total Voters: 112

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21525899 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (142 posts by 32 users deleted.)
Findingnemo
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March 11, 2019, 05:23:10 AM

Would you say, hypothetically, if BTC prices are able to convincingly break above $4k, then 1) such prices will not necessarily get repelled at the $4,200 level again, or 2) maybe have the next challenge at $4,500 or 3) there is no real resistance until getting in the upper $4k arena or sub $5k arena?

Hitting and holding $4k will be a huge victory but nothing will be easy after that either.  I have previously said it will take until December for us to reach and hold $6k and we will have to fight every step of the way.  This will be a war of attrition and accumulation.  

It will not be pretty but it will be upward on average.
$4K or $6K by Decemeber 2019,the price will reach new heights on the next halving so we need to ready for the another bull run before end of 2020.

Am I right?
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March 11, 2019, 05:28:02 AM

It will probably take a least a year after the halvening for the price to fully respond to the supply side shock.  So 2021 not 2020. New ATH at the very end of 2020 if we are lucky.
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March 11, 2019, 05:28:47 AM
Last edit: March 11, 2019, 05:43:18 AM by nanobtc
Merited by HairyMaclairy (1), Toxic2040 (1), fillippone (1)


I built a small one, they are very accurate, once you get the sling length/pin release worked out, counterweight and projectile weight dialed in. I can hit a monitor with a marble 4 cubes away, 10 out of 10 tries. GTFO with your nerf guns, I have a siege weapon...
You can hit a monitor how far? What’s a cube? Lol a typo?  Yet Another Silly Non SI unit?

Sorry, that's tech worker slang. A cube is a cubicle, an office working environment. A monitor is a computer viewing device. A monitor lizard would not be impressed by being hit with glass marbles at all, and only annoy it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monitor_lizard

A nerf gun is a safe and legal toy. Siege weapons were used since 429 BC, to break down fortified environments. Sometimes, instead of breaking down the castle wall, they would just hurl a dead cow inside a castle, and wait for them to all die from disease. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_engine

If the king sent a messenger with an offer that was refused, they would sometimes just fling the messenger against the castle wall in response. Don't kill the messenger?

EDIT: Just now looked, a Trebuchet was apparently a 4BC Chinese invention, despite the French sounding name. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trebuchet

EDIT AGAIN: I even named my small toy trebuchet. I called it "The Duke of Hurl" You can experiment with parameters here, safely.  http://www.virtualtrebuchet.com/
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March 11, 2019, 05:33:05 AM

It will probably take a least a year after the halvening for the price to fully respond to the supply side shock.  So 2021 not 2020. New ATH at the very end of 2020 if we are lucky.
Hat family members are very lucky. Wink
Searing
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March 11, 2019, 05:41:25 AM

Fourth consecutive week closed in the green... and I still have no fucking idea what the price is gonna do next. Bleh. If at least I had the balls to aggressively scalp around this range....


Welcome to my world...befuddled...hodl'ing but befuddled on 2019, especially with the mt. gox dump in May 2019..I think it is?
JayJuanGee
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March 11, 2019, 05:41:33 AM

Would you say, hypothetically, if BTC prices are able to convincingly break above $4k, then 1) such prices will not necessarily get repelled at the $4,200 level again, or 2) maybe have the next challenge at $4,500 or 3) there is no real resistance until getting in the upper $4k arena or sub $5k arena?

Hitting and holding $4k will be a huge victory but nothing will be easy after that either.  I have previously said it will take until December for us to reach and hold $6k and we will have to fight every step of the way.  This will be a war of attrition and accumulation.  

It will not be pretty but it will be upward on average.

O.k.  Fair enough.  That's in the ballpark of my thinking too in terms of the kind of expected price battle on the way up between here and $6k-ish, but I would like to think that I am less wedded than you regarding any kind of exacting timeline within a kind of fractal comparison of how long the battle will take.

As far as I am concerned, the fractal comparisons can take a flying hike (look at me, G-rated language) - though I will still likely continue to ask you, from time to time, about whether you consider that we are still within the parameters of the fractal, as you see it, especially since so far in this current price correction cycle there have been considerably decent and eerily comparable BTC price performance within this correction cycle as compared with the last one. 

In other words, I hate relying upon such similar performance (and expectations of such), even though such BTC price direction largely seems to be continuing to take place in that pattern following way.
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March 11, 2019, 05:48:21 AM

Perhaps my guideways are not as rigid as you might think (or I have portrayed).

I have picked a number as a signpost but as we both know on any given day the actual price can be at least 20% higher or lower (or both) without breaking a sweat. 
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March 11, 2019, 05:53:43 AM
Merited by Findingnemo (1)

Would you say, hypothetically, if BTC prices are able to convincingly break above $4k, then 1) such prices will not necessarily get repelled at the $4,200 level again, or 2) maybe have the next challenge at $4,500 or 3) there is no real resistance until getting in the upper $4k arena or sub $5k arena?

Hitting and holding $4k will be a huge victory but nothing will be easy after that either.  I have previously said it will take until December for us to reach and hold $6k and we will have to fight every step of the way.  This will be a war of attrition and accumulation.  

It will not be pretty but it will be upward on average.
$4K or $6K by Decemeber 2019,the price will reach new heights on the next halving so we need to ready for the another bull run before end of 2020.

Am I right?

New ATHs have not come before or even at the time of the halvenings, but several months (and maybe even more than a year afterwards). 

I doubt that this upcoming May 2020 halvening is going to be much different in that regard.   There is a kind of expectation that the halvening should be "priced in" because it is a known event, and should even really be a known dynamic; however, there seems to be so much god damned stupidity out there, not only in terms of so called smart-money, but also the population and even the spreading of opposite FUD. 

So there continues to be a dynamic of ongoing attempts to manipulate BTC prices as low as possible and for as long as possible (which I suppose could be considered kind of smart in and of itself for the smarter bearwhales to accumulate BTC);  but such strenuous downward BTC manipulation tendencies has tended to exacerbate pushing the price way below value and then a subsequent violent and seemingly unrealistic reaction in the opposite direction causing FOMO, pumping and just upwards price movements beyond anything close to reasonable.

Of course, I am always receptive to possibilities that history is not going to repeat itself, but ironically, with the passage of time, we are likely going to find ourselves experiencing a similar pattern as the historical ones.   The longer term BTC HODLers will continue to b surprised while at the same time NOT being overly surprised, while at the same time we won't be as surprised as the folks who are way newer to the market who will be exacerbating the FOMO, including the previous BTC no coiners and BTC naysayers who will likely be more surprised than long term BTC HODLers because they will be buying on the way up.. and long term HODLers will be continuing to struggle with some dilemma regarding when exactly to sell, and how much to sell, if any.
Findingnemo
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March 11, 2019, 05:58:44 AM

Would you say, hypothetically, if BTC prices are able to convincingly break above $4k, then 1) such prices will not necessarily get repelled at the $4,200 level again, or 2) maybe have the next challenge at $4,500 or 3) there is no real resistance until getting in the upper $4k arena or sub $5k arena?

Hitting and holding $4k will be a huge victory but nothing will be easy after that either.  I have previously said it will take until December for us to reach and hold $6k and we will have to fight every step of the way.  This will be a war of attrition and accumulation.  

It will not be pretty but it will be upward on average.
$4K or $6K by Decemeber 2019,the price will reach new heights on the next halving so we need to ready for the another bull run before end of 2020.

Am I right?

New ATHs have not come before or even at the time of the halvenings, but several months (and maybe even more than a year afterwards). 

I doubt that this upcoming May 2020 halvening is going to be much different in that regard.   There is a kind of expectation that the halvening should be "priced in" because it is a known event, and should even really be a known dynamic; however, there seems to be so much god damned stupidity out there, not only in terms of so called smart-money, but also the population and even the spreading of opposite FUD. 

So there continues to be a dynamic of ongoing attempts to manipulate BTC prices as low as possible and for as long as possible (which I suppose could be considered kind of smart in and of itself for the smarter bearwhales to accumulate BTC);  but such strenuous downward BTC manipulation tendencies has tended to exacerbate pushing the price way below value and then a subsequent violent and seemingly unrealistic reaction in the opposite direction causing FOMO, pumping and just upwards price movements beyond anything close to reasonable.

Of course, I am always receptive to possibilities that history is not going to repeat itself, but ironically, with the passage of time, we are likely going to find ourselves experiencing a similar pattern as the historical ones.   The longer term BTC HODLers will continue to b surprised while at the same time NOT being overly surprised, while at the same time we won't be as surprised as the folks who are way newer to the market who will be exacerbating the FOMO, including the previous BTC no coiners and BTC naysayers who will likely be more surprised than long term BTC HODLers because they will be buying on the way up.. and long term HODLers will be continuing to struggle with some dilemma regarding when exactly to sell, and how much to sell, if any.

I hope the expectation of next halvening will make some impact on the investors who are waiting long for the right time to come.

Just start speculating it and it will bring some highs.Hopefully.

#MotivationalMonday  Smiley
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March 11, 2019, 06:07:29 AM

Perhaps my guideways are not as rigid as you might think (or I have portrayed).

I have picked a number as a signpost but as we both know on any given day the actual price can be at least 20% higher or lower (or both) without breaking a sweat. 


I know.  I have a tendency to want to beat up on your presentations for being correct too often, and part of the reason that you seem to end up correct is that you tend to have a sufficient amount of fractal pattern flexibility - so I concede about your flexibility..   Cry Cry
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March 11, 2019, 06:45:34 AM

Well that sounds fair enough to me  Grin
JayJuanGee
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March 11, 2019, 06:48:37 AM

[edited out]

I hope the expectation of next halvening will make some impact on the investors who are waiting long for the right time to come.

Just start speculating it and it will bring some highs.Hopefully.

#MotivationalMonday  Smiley

Over the years, I have come to accept that we should not be waiting for some bull whale(s) to save us from whatever bearwhale manipulation is going on and also the overall momentum of the market that also requires some passage of time to play out where the bearwhales realize that their attempts to push the BTC price down is no longer working.  No one really knows when this point is going to be exactly, but after a while there just are not enough coins, shorting tools, etc available to keep the price down.. and the easiest direction becomes UP.

Don't get me wrong, I want the BTC price to go up as much as anyone, but sometimes there will be dynamics that are the opposite of what seems should be happening, including the fact that the actual BTC price bottom for this cycle might not be in, and I am still placing such probability at 52% that the bottom is not "in" as much as I would like for that outcome to NOT happen. 

In another recent post, I stated my three scenarios in which I will change my assessment and start to believe that the odds are greater that the bottom is in.
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March 11, 2019, 06:48:47 AM


I built a small one, they are very accurate, once you get the sling length/pin release worked out, counterweight and projectile weight dialed in. I can hit a monitor with a marble 4 cubes away, 10 out of 10 tries. GTFO with your nerf guns, I have a siege weapon...
You can hit a monitor how far? What’s a cube? Lol a typo?  Yet Another Silly Non SI unit?

Sorry, that's tech worker slang. A cube is a cubicle, an office working environment. A monitor is a computer viewing device. A monitor lizard would not be impressed by being hit with glass marbles at all, and only annoy it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monitor_lizard

A nerf gun is a safe and legal toy. Siege weapons were used since 429 BC, to break down fortified environments. Sometimes, instead of breaking down the castle wall, they would just hurl a dead cow inside a castle, and wait for them to all die from disease. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_engine

If the king sent a messenger with an offer that was refused, they would sometimes just fling the messenger against the castle wall in response. Don't kill the messenger?

EDIT: Just now looked, a Trebuchet was apparently a 4BC Chinese invention, despite the French sounding name. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trebuchet

EDIT AGAIN: I even named my small toy trebuchet. I called it "The Duke of Hurl" You can experiment with parameters here, safely.  http://www.virtualtrebuchet.com/
LOL.
Sorry, my broken English didn’t can’t catch the slang for cubicle.
Ah! I did like the attitude of the answer btw!
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March 11, 2019, 06:57:12 AM

I even named my small toy trebuchet.

Well then.
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March 11, 2019, 07:06:08 AM

Nice to see some voices of reason today in this world of total madness.

The founder of Greenpeace,  the legendary environmental fighter Patrick Moore speaks out and calls the hypothesis about human caused environmental changes the "biggest bluff in history". https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/

And TitaniaMcGrath is publishing a book.
For you who don't know who  that is, it's a 40 year old man with a twitter account that makes fun of the leftist snowflakes by pretending to be the most leftist political correct snowflake ever with tweets like:

"it is hugely problematic to celebrate #InternationalWomensDay by  eating vagina cakes.
If I was a fat woman with a penis I’d be feeling pretty annoyed right now."

And "You’ll notice there’s not a single obese player in the England football team.
This kind of discrimination is precisely why the fat acceptance movement is so essential."

And "If you only have sex with people you find attractive, you might want to ask yourself why you’re such a superficial bigot."

https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath?lang=sv


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March 11, 2019, 07:07:45 AM

Can someone translate what this tables says?

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1104635332274749446

Wondering how much more they have left to liquidate at $4k
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March 11, 2019, 07:52:48 AM

Nice to see some voices of reason today in this world of total madness.

The founder of Greenpeace,  the legendary environmental fighter Patrick Moore speaks out and calls the hypothesis about human caused environmental changes the "biggest bluff in history". https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/



If you don’t believe in science and math, how can you believe in bitcoin?
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March 11, 2019, 07:56:16 AM

Can someone translate what this tables says?

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1104635332274749446

Wondering how much more they have left to liquidate at $4k

R.I.P. Bitmain.
HairyMaclairy
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March 11, 2019, 07:59:52 AM

Can someone translate what this tables says?

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1104635332274749446

Wondering how much more they have left to liquidate at $4k

$33 million worth.  In other words, Bitmain is worth about 12% of the Quadriga exit scam.



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March 11, 2019, 08:03:38 AM

Good morning WO brothers!


No more parties till $10k.
Even then only a small one.
sleep. healthy food. exercise. hodl. repeat

Thanks


The Jet Engine needs some fuel 🙂



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