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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (1%)
7/28 - 11 (11.5%)
8/4 - 16 (16.7%)
8/11 - 7 (7.3%)
8/18 - 5 (5.2%)
8/25 - 7 (7.3%)
After August - 49 (51%)
Total Voters: 96

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26451139 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
HairyMaclairy
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April 24, 2019, 02:08:04 AM

N. Popper wrote about bitcoin in NY Times (BTW, not a very well thought out piece).
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/23/technology/bitcoin-tulip-mania-internet.html

Read the discussion. Some are defending btc, but many are absolutely clueless, yet aggressive.

To be fair, people probably only comment if they have a strong opinion.  So people who comment are a small segment of society.
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April 24, 2019, 02:08:40 AM
Merited by Retina (1)

BTC market cap dominance at 2019 high now. Its gonna reclaim 60 percent this year Smiley

The King will reclaim his glory.
gentlemand
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April 24, 2019, 02:17:50 AM

N. Popper wrote about bitcoin in NY Times (BTW, not a very well thought out piece).
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/23/technology/bitcoin-tulip-mania-internet.html

Read the discussion. Some are defending btc, but many are absolutely clueless, yet aggressive.

I find him a weird character. Digital Gold had some great stretches and he must've done a huge amount of research yet he still comes out with sub Nouriel Roubini sindeyness every now and then.
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April 24, 2019, 02:41:28 AM
Merited by infofront (1)

Great interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/peter-rizuns-lightning-critique-fud-or-fair

I assume a number of you will summarily dismiss this, rushing to judgement before examining the evidence. But for the open-minded, certainly worth a listen.

I am truly looking forward to the necessitated responses from the LN-faithful. Well, to the extent that such responses be substantive. If this conversation carries forward in a respectful manner, we may all learn a thing or two.

edit: Incidentally, this has been 'Lightning Month' on What Bitcoin Did. Quite a few good installments, each focusing on a different aspect of Lightning.

https://stephanlivera.com/episode/68

Quote
Joost Jager, Lightning Network Infrastructure Engineer at Lightning Labs, joins me in this episode to talk about Lightning Loop Out and In. We also discuss some of the recent criticisms of the Lightning Network by Peter Rizun. We talk:

    How Lightning Loop helps you manage inbound liquidity, or pay with BTC on chain to get outgoing capacity on a lightning channel
    Practical uses of Lightning Loop technology
    Some of the technicals behind how Lightning Loop works e.g. hodlinvoice
    Thoughts and responses to Peter Rizun’s criticisms of the Lightning Network

Cool. Thanks. Will listen.

So I got around to listening to the Stephan Livera podcast featuring Joost Jager. If this is what serves as comprehensive rebuttal to Rizun’s points, you might want to start worrying about the efficacy of LN. Of course, this is just response from a single LN dev, who may not have prepared to discuss Rizun’s ‘Five Fundamental Flaws of LN’. The first half of the interview covered Jager’s work on loop in/out.

For the record, the following is my restatement as best I concisely can of Rizun’s ‘Five Fundamental Flaws of LN’:

1) Lightning scales txs not users
2) Friction in layer 1 leaks into layer 2
3) Routing failures are inevitable
4) Much trapped liquidity in the system
5) Running a non-custodial wallet is more cumbersome than onchain

And the following is my brief capture of the points made by host and guest on these points. These are very brief - I would suggest listening to the podcast yourself to get the full flavor. The numbers on each point correspond to my impression which of Rizun’s FFFoLN are being referred to. YEs, these are sketchy outlines of their discussion. Again, listen to the podcast for in depth info devoid of my spin (which I have tried to avoid). In roughly chronological order:

SL (stating Rizun’s points):
2) variability of fees cause problems at the Lightning layer
5) drive too much custodial wallet use
JJ:
5) very true at the moment - decentralized solutions are hard - just early - lot of work to do
   don’t see why fundamentally it won’t work to automate cumbersome parts
SL:
1) hard to onboard users - LN scales txs, not users - over time, not enough UTXOs for each person to be sovereign; think this can be solved via multiparty txs
JJ:
1) good problem to have
SL:
2) can’t we just wait for fees to come down?
JJ:
2) yes
SL:
2) Friction from layer 1 can cause problems on layer 1
JJ:
2) have no answer - if need to post cancel on chain at $1000 fee, that’s a problem
SL:
2) Stop and Decrypt says that fees only go up in USD value, not BTC
5) Need to be online to receive payment
JJ:
5) who is not always online?
5) permanent uptime at home, mobile client as a remote control to that server
5) maybe create some sort of mailbox which would hold payment until online
SL:
some can be solved by engineering
2) just make the retaliation window sizable
3) problem finding route with sufficient liquidity
JJ:
3) perhaps reputation can inform routing - this would increase success percentage
SL:
3) what about mobile phones needing to route? Does phone require entire graph?
JJ:
3) reputational routing might lead to many channels being private to guard reputation, this will reduce size of routing graph
3) hybrid - whitelisted/blacklisted nodes - weakens decentralization, but may work for mobile
SL:
4) trapped liquidity
4) but loop will help
JJ:
4) yes, loop can help inbound liquidity (seems to misunderstand the issue as only transactional -ed)
4) perhaps inbound liquidity may be provided at no cost
SL:
Rizun skeptical this complexity cannot be abstracted away
I think SPV is overly romanticized - holding onto UX that is infeasible in long term
JJ:
The question may be whether onchain is viable in the long term
LN is inherently complex, onchain is easier
SL:
Last thoughts?
JJ:
In general, it’s pretty early - huge fees are speculative; 4B people to use? LN solves a current problem
Would like to see a killer app that LN uniquely solves. Micro tx space would be likely as unique value.
Would like to improve payment reliability

——

All in all, as a rebuttal to Rizun’s FFFoLN, I find this unpersuasive in the extreme. While I am already a known LN skeptic, I see nothing in the above that contradicts a single one of Rizun’s points.

Perhaps I should just wait until the next contender arrives to dispel Rizun’s FFFoLN?  Dunno. But as I said earlier, if all my eggs were in the Lightning basket, I be starting to get scared about now.
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April 24, 2019, 03:03:52 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I’m not really interested in getting into a detailed analysis of Lightning with big blockers.  But even if Lightning was a total flop (and not saying that it will be - quite the opposite), there are other tools out there like Blockstream Liquid.

And if big blocks become a matter of life or death, Bitcoin will simply fork and pick them up.

But the current block size works fine for a store of value and there are horrible compromises with big blocks that cannot be undone. So no need to change now.

And we sure as hell aren’t going to use Craig or Roger’s shitcoin so you can forget that idea.
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April 24, 2019, 03:05:59 AM

BTC market cap dominance at 2019 high now. Its gonna reclaim 60 percent this year Smiley

The King will reclaim his glory.

Not only 60% I think 80%+ percent recovery in this year but it is only technically moved BTC transaction volume low but up and down high. I hope a great day every BTCBTC lover it is soon .
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April 24, 2019, 03:13:51 AM


Dispelling LN FUD from Rizun For others that care to research -

https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/85650/htlcs-dont-work-for-micropayments/85694#85694

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1G4xchDGcO37DJ2lPC_XYyZIUkJc2khnLrCaZXgvDN0U/edit?pref=2&pli=1#slide=id.g85f425098_0_195

https://stephanlivera.com/episode/68

https://medium.com/@unofficialbitcoinshow/how-lightning-network-maintains-bitcoins-value-proposition-d127da10077d

http://diyhpl.us/wiki/transcripts/boltathon/2019-04-06-alex-bosworth-major-limitations/

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctx-oAIhhSY&list=PLC_AgDAr0m6QhwqPDrqMfjX64oHGmwDMk&index=4


Quote
"A channel is 1 onchain UTXO but it represents the funds of 2 people. The 2 outputs are off-chain. If a block has 2k tx then each block can on-board 4k people. Multi-party channels could have more off-chain outputs: thousands. That would mean a block could on-board 4 million users" - alex bosworth

Channel Management (video) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlPIB6jt6ww

Channel Management (transcript) http://diyhpl.us/wiki/transcripts/chaincode-labs/2018-10-22-alex-bosworth-channel-management/

Lightning protocol, application design perspective (video) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1R5DNUcCYRg

Lightning protocol, application design perspective (transcript) http://diyhpl.us/wiki/transcripts/chaincode-labs/2018-10-22-alex-bosworth-lightning-protocol/

Building Lightning applications (video) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhRIWc9zPjA

BTW, we know there are tradeoffs with lightning , as with any solution, the above links go into detail what these tradeoffs are. That is why we are scaling in multiple ways including onchain right now.
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April 24, 2019, 03:14:40 AM

I’m not really interested in getting into a detailed analysis of Lightning with big blockers.  But even if Lightning was a total flop (and not saying that it will be - quite the opposite), there are other tools out there like Blockstream Liquid.

You realize Liqid is a permissioned quasi-sidechain, right?
JayJuanGee
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April 24, 2019, 03:20:16 AM

One of y'all might wanna pick this up. Goose maybe?

https://frontrowmemorabilia.com/products/the-big-lebowski-cast-signed-movie-poster-27x41-in-wood-frame?variant=12445100703829

Signed by Jeff Bridges, John Goodman, Julianne Moore, Steve Buscemi, Sam Elliott, Peter Stormare, Tara Reid, John Turturro, the late Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Flea", Mark Pellegrino and writer/director team Joel and Ethan Coen

I reckon mic will be on that like JJG on walls of text Wink

This is what I would like to say to you, LFC:

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April 24, 2019, 03:22:03 AM
Merited by mindrust (3), JayJuanGee (1)

I’m not really interested in getting into a detailed analysis of Lightning with big blockers.  But even if Lightning was a total flop (and not saying that it will be - quite the opposite), there are other tools out there like Blockstream Liquid.

You realize Liqid is a permissioned quasi-sidechain, right?


Focusing only on scaling onchain is not good enough. We must scale aggressively, which means multiple ways simultaneously.

Onchain in the short term with MAST and Schnorr sig aggregation, later flexcap blocks

Not merely LN but Eltoo Multi-party channels can onboard up to 4 million users per block, every 10 minutes(up to 576,000,000 users a day) . Splicing and channel factories Boost integration into LN as well.

liquid sidechain is merely one of many solutions. There is RSK drivechain and BAKKT sidechain.

More entrants coming In the game like fidelty and TD Ameritrade for offchain



jbreher
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April 24, 2019, 03:22:14 AM

Dispelling LN FUD from Rizun For others that care to research -

[...lazy wall'o'text...]

Hmm. That's an awful lot of stuff to dredge through. From a cursory glance, much of which I am already conversant with. Perhaps you'd be so kind as to list which of Rizun's FFFoLN are rebutted by which said articles you have provided?

For the record, the following is my restatement as best I concisely can of Rizun’s ‘Five Fundamental Flaws of LN’:

1) Lightning scales txs not users
2) Friction in layer 1 leaks into layer 2
3) Routing failures are inevitable
4) Much trapped liquidity in the system
5) Running a non-custodial wallet is more cumbersome than onchain
BitUsher
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April 24, 2019, 03:27:04 AM
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Hmm. That's an awful lot of stuff to dredge through. From a cursory glance, much of which I am already conversant with.

The links I provided go in detail and explain LN limitations and where the FUD exists for all points Rizun makes. One problem that exists is its easier to spread false rumors and misinformation than honestly discuss the nuanced and technical details of LN , especially when it is in active development and new solutions are being created all the time.

You need to digest all the information to address Rizun's concerns.

The bottom line is Bitcoin does not depend upon LN success and is scaling in many ways at the same time aggressively.
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April 24, 2019, 03:28:46 AM

Not much of a difference in terms of law.

Elwar build nothing, he was just a tenant.

That's like finding a houseboat on Airbnb... nobody is going to arrest a tourist for renting one in the US.



Try declaring sovereignty in a trailer on the mainland and see what happens.

It is a very powerful idea. Which makes it dangerous.

The thing is that you can't declare sovereignty inside another state/nation territory... Well, you can, but that's asking for BIG trouble. Which is somewhat understandable because in some way if you claim you are another (micronation) and are in the territory of a previously established one that would be interpreted as an invasion and an act of war.

Elwar was supposed to be outside of it and in international waters... and see what happened anyways....

It's a complex issue... but I am still shocked by the extreme overreaction of Thailand over what was a ridiculously small boating thingy in the middle of the nothingness.
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April 24, 2019, 03:28:53 AM

I’m not really interested in getting into a detailed analysis of Lightning with big blockers.  But even if Lightning was a total flop (and not saying that it will be - quite the opposite), there are other tools out there like Blockstream Liquid.

You realize Liqid is a permissioned quasi-sidechain, right?

Focusing only on scaling onchain is not good enough.

I keep hearing that. However, nobody ever wants to show their work as to why.

Quote
We must scale aggressively, which means multiple ways simultaneously.

Then why ignore the obvious big hitter?

Quote
Onchain in the short term with MAST and Schnorr sig aggregation, later flexcap blocks

Schnorr provides a small incremental improvement, yes. Why are they not yet implemented in the Reference Implementation?

Quote
Not merely LN but Eltoo Multi-party channels can onboard up to 4 million users per block, every 10 minutes(up to 576,000,000 users a day) .

Show me a block that has onboarded 4M users?

More handwaving about pie in the sky futures, while LN is fundamentally flawed. In at least five dimensions. And again, as whizbangery, it's a pretty sophisticated mechanism. Unfortunately, however, it brings useful value to only a very limited set of use cases.

But really, as said before, I am looking for cogent rebuttals to Rizun's FFFoLN. Next thing I shoudl look at?
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April 24, 2019, 03:31:33 AM

But really, as said before, I am looking for cogent rebuttals to Rizun's FFFoLN. Next thing I shoudl look at?

You are not sincere , because I provided all the answers with links that went into detail with Rizun's concerns and you simply ignored them.

Seems you rather debate than learn or improve Bitcoin. Good luck with your altcoin.
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April 24, 2019, 03:32:22 AM


Hmm. That's an awful lot of stuff to dredge through. From a cursory glance, much of which I am already conversant with.

The links I provided go in detail and explain LN limitations and where the FUD exists for all points Rizun makes. One problem that exists is its easier to spread false rumors and misinformation than honestly discuss the nuanced and technical details of LN

Is that so? Do you disagree that -- for example -- friction at layer 1 leaks into layer 2? Or is that assertion an example what you are calling "false rumors and misinformation"?
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April 24, 2019, 03:35:03 AM


Is that so? Do you disagree that -- for example -- friction at layer 1 leaks into layer 2? Or is that assertion an example what you are calling "false rumors and misinformation"?

If you bother to digest the answers I provided, you would know that of course L1 effects L2.

Don't believe me, research it yourself. Stop wasting both of our time if you can't even bother doing basic research with the answers I provided you which will likely be very difficult for you to comprehend because you are so brainwashed into hating Bitcoin.
jbreher
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April 24, 2019, 03:35:21 AM

But really, as said before, I am looking for cogent rebuttals to Rizun's FFFoLN. Next thing I shoudl look at?

You are not sincere , because I provided all the answers with links that went into detail with Rizun's concerns and you simply ignored them.

Bullshit. You can't just point at the entire corpus of material written about LN, and tell me that these concise targeted assertions are disproven therein. Grab one and point me to what you believe is written that disproves it.

If you can, pretender.
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April 24, 2019, 03:36:27 AM


Is that so? Do you disagree that -- for example -- friction at layer 1 leaks into layer 2? Or is that assertion an example what you are calling "false rumors and misinformation"?

If you bother to digest the answers I provided you would know that of course L1 effects L2.

So why do you refer to that point as "false rumors and misinformation"? You contradict yourself.
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April 24, 2019, 03:39:06 AM

It is certainly undeniable that the computing infrastructure we have today allows many more use cases than than of a generation ago (or even of a year ago). Accordingly, 'bloatware' as an argument is weaksauce. Yes, as processing power cost drives toward zero, it makes sense to spend more computing cycles for a more enjoyable experience. This I see as positive.

Maybe you're the outlier that wants to watch their porn in glorious Hercules compatible resolution on a monochrome screen at 3 frames per minute. I dunno. But you'd certainly be in the minority.

The problem is that as machines we're still running the Palaeo OS. Every day I wake in disgust at the bandwidth of my sensory inputs.
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