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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.6%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.2%)
H1 2020 - 30 (19.1%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.8%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.6%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.7%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.5%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 157

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21293523 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
jbreher
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May 14, 2019, 12:09:58 AM

If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.


These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives.

Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset.

If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence.


Maybe flawed, but only partially. If bonds are issued, then this is not a unit of account, but an actual asset that contributes to the overall size of assets, is it not?
Bond market in US is 82tril, global-above 100 tril.
I can redeem a bond and get currency/cash.

Analogy: water in the lake is still a part of water present on planet earth.

In theory it works like that but in practice it doesn't. Even in the Bretton Woods system there was a "notional" convertibility to gold. But there was still far more currency in circulation than there was gold in existence. The value of gold was simply pegged to a multiple of the dollar ($30 I think).

Lets say you had 1 bitcoin and you issued a bitcoin backed bond. You now have 2 effective bitcoins in circulation - the real one and the bond. The original doesn't cease to exist just because it's backing a bond. Similarly, crypto exchanges inflate the bitcoin money supply. We deposit our bitcoin on exchanges and they create these "synthetic" bitcoins for us to trade. Meanwhile the deposited BTC are still in circulation on the blockchain.

People tend to think that they're "locked away" and out of circulation, but they're not. The new synthetic ones are added to the supply. The exchange can do what they want with the deposits - it just depends on the contractural terms.

So the "21 million" limit is not really a limit. The bitcoin supply can be expanded in an unlimited way and will be simply through its use as a pure unit of account, same as any other asset.


...which -- of course -- is why nobody already conversant with the topic will accept your 'paper Bitcoin'.
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Hueristic
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May 14, 2019, 12:28:36 AM

But, what do those numbers you posted (2-2-10-4) mean? Just curious...

Play Railroad Tycoon, you'll learn. Cheesy



Great Series of games BTW.


Damn I miss that game. Goes great with a bag of weed (as do most things).

One of my favorite aspects was trying to bankrupt the other tycoons by manipulating their stock prices.

If you had enough capital to buy and crash the price of a competitor's stock, you could leave them forever bankrupt, unable to dig themselves out of massive debt. Fun!

The economic module of the game was fantastic. I usually played only as investor manipulating mine and all other stocks, trying to bankrupt the other rich guys, while having quit as a manager of the company and letting the game automanage it... Cool

Playing the market was a great part that I had totally forgot about!
OK, I have to dig it out now. I think I only have RT3 left so it'll have to be that one.
hisslyness
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May 14, 2019, 12:30:38 AM


In theory it works like that but in practice it doesn't. Even in the Bretton Woods system there was a "notional" convertibility to gold. But there was still far more currency in circulation than there was gold in existence. The value of gold was simply pegged to a multiple of the dollar ($30 I think).

Lets say you had 1 bitcoin and you issued a bitcoin backed bond. You now have 2 effective bitcoins in circulation - the real one and the bond. The original doesn't cease to exist just because it's backing a bond. Similarly, crypto exchanges inflate the bitcoin money supply. We deposit our bitcoin on exchanges and they create these "synthetic" bitcoins for us to trade. Meanwhile the deposited BTC are still in circulation on the blockchain.

People tend to think that they're "locked away" and out of circulation, but they're not. The new synthetic ones are added to the supply. The exchange can do what they want with the deposits - it just depends on the contractural terms.

So the "21 million" limit is not really a limit. The bitcoin supply can be expanded in an unlimited way and will be simply through its use as a pure unit of account, same as any other asset.


That does not make sense... you just said, one is the REAL Bitcoin the other is a BOND (FAKE), there will only be one BTC ever appearing on the blockchain... also, slightly less than 21M in circulation.

What you do in your closed system will only be in it's closed system with the participants involved, be it exchanges/coinbase to coinbase transaction etc.

At the end of the day, 21M is still the limit, no matter what you want to peg it against!...
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May 14, 2019, 12:31:44 AM

But, what do those numbers you posted (2-2-10-4) mean? Just curious...

Play Railroad Tycoon, you'll learn. Cheesy



Great Series of games BTW.


Damn I miss that game. Goes great with a bag of weed (as do most things).

One of my favorite aspects was trying to bankrupt the other tycoons by manipulating their stock prices.

If you had enough capital to buy and crash the price of a competitor's stock, you could leave them forever bankrupt, unable to dig themselves out of massive debt. Fun!

What about Transport Tycoon... That what so far advance for it time!.. I remember the longer you played the slower it got!

The economic module of the game was fantastic. I usually played only as investor manipulating mine and all other stocks, trying to bankrupt the other rich guys, while having quit as a manager of the company and letting the game automanage it... Cool

Playing the market was a great part that I had totally forgot about!
OK, I have to dig it out now. I think I only have RT3 left so it'll have to be that one.

Anyone remember Transport Tycoon?... It was so far advance for its time. I remembered the longer you played the slower it got!.. Those super fast Pentiums was no match...
Ahab_Hunter_of_BearWhale
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May 14, 2019, 12:53:30 AM

I would think, however, that such derivative bitcoins would be limited in number (maybe 3-10 times more, but not 100-1000 times more).

Have a look at the BTC trading volume on coinmarketcap and compare it with the blockchain movements for the day. You might get a fright. BTC denominated off-chain trades in derivative bitcoin will probably outnumber actual BTC by hundreds of thousands if not millions.

XD
Febo
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May 14, 2019, 01:02:00 AM

I am getting scared to to see the price increase of bitcoin. Undecided

Will there be any corrections with these huge bumps?

How can you be scared now when price is $9k and for months it was $9k or more, but you were not scared 1.5 years ago when price was $15k+?
jojo69
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May 14, 2019, 01:06:24 AM

I'm bored, can we have a war or something?
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May 14, 2019, 01:10:20 AM
Last edit: May 14, 2019, 01:52:44 AM by Bitcoinaire


I remember his BTC call of $80 back in 2014, waaay off but his LTC call in early 2017 was absolutely spot-on. His musings are generally interesting. Anyway, his current call is so fantastical that I'd believe when I see it.

His most likely scenario is:

Quote
So the $78k could be the second peak and after the halving and there would be no dip after $150k and instead the moonshot would be all the way from ~$30k to $500+K at the end of 2020.
HeSoCo
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May 14, 2019, 01:26:53 AM

This is crazy cool. Anyone could test it?

Bitcoin Comes to Whole Foods, Major Retailers in Coup for Digital Currency


http://fortune.com/2019/05/13/bitcoin-comes-to-whole-foods-major-retailers-in-coup-for-digital-currency/
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May 14, 2019, 01:38:23 AM

If this ends up playing out, and Mcafee is correct, it would be absolutely incredible.
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May 14, 2019, 01:40:52 AM
Merited by 600watt (1), infofront (1)

Bitcoin, exciting and new
Come aboard, we're expecting you

Bitcoin, life's sweetest reward
Let it flow, it floats back to you

The BitBoat soon will be making another run
The BitBoat promises something for everyone

Set a course for adventure
Your mind on an All Time High...and Lambo


Ipwich
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May 14, 2019, 01:42:48 AM

I am getting scared to to see the price increase of bitcoin. Undecided

Will there be any corrections with these huge bumps?

How can you be scared now when price is $9k and for months it was $9k or more, but you were not scared 1.5 years ago when price was $15k+?

He is scared of dump without thinking that bitcoin was dumped pretty hard a year ago.

We are in the pump year, and it will be pumping for the whole year, that's confirmed from me. 

 Grin Grin Grin
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May 14, 2019, 01:58:20 AM
Merited by Torque (1)

Pump your mother if you want pump


Curious to hear from r0ach.

I'm interested to know how his analog Bitcoin is performing compared to real Bitcoin.

Spend my last Sm cause of you 1666 horror merit count...

And cause of your continiously holding up with us MOONboys and taking good care of this amazing place

Cheers infofront

Thanks!
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May 14, 2019, 02:02:00 AM





The Mythical Golden Bull Era might be upon us. If so expect 100k this summer.  Cheesy I dont really believe this will happen, but I ya never know.

HairyMaclairy
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May 14, 2019, 02:18:37 AM

If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.


These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives.

Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset.

If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence.


Oy vey - where to start?

Obviously, if UK GDP were to be valued in Bitcoin, then Bitcoin would rise in price in order to be able to accommodate UK money supply in the allotted number of Bitcoin units.

As an aside - you might satisfy yourself with Bitcoin denominated credits. I think most here already understand the folly of such acceptance.

The reason the US departed the gold standard was an unacceptable risk of a short squeeze on the Federal Reserve.

I cannot see how any Central Bank would be foolish enough to put itself in that position again. 

So Bitcoin denominated notes, convertible or not, seem out of the question. 
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May 14, 2019, 02:28:16 AM

When 12344? (or was it 12688 or smth?)

lol, the 12,288 game? Thought I had decent chances with that one, not so sure now.
jbreher
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May 14, 2019, 03:26:36 AM

This is crazy cool. Anyone could test it?

Bitcoin Comes to Whole Foods, Major Retailers in Coup for Digital Currency


http://fortune.com/2019/05/13/bitcoin-comes-to-whole-foods-major-retailers-in-coup-for-digital-currency/

I'm game. Anyone have an invite code?
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May 14, 2019, 03:32:52 AM

lol

anybody use WhatsApp?
Paashaas
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May 14, 2019, 03:41:18 AM

With this record volume no doubt wel'll see new ATH's this year.

jbreher
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May 14, 2019, 03:50:15 AM

With this record volume no doubt wel'll see new ATH's this year.

https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/trade-volume?timespan=all

 Huh
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