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Question: Oct. 16 Closing Price:
<$8,000 - 2 (2.2%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 0 (0%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 0 (0%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 0 (0%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 5 (5.6%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 7 (7.9%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 13 (14.6%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 25 (28.1%)
$12,000-$12,500 - 14 (15.7%)
$12,500-$13,000 - 6 (6.7%)
$13,000-$13,500 - 4 (4.5%)
$13,500-$14,000 - 2 (2.2%)
>$14,000 - 8 (9%)
Total Voters: 89

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 23320628 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
bitmover
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June 09, 2019, 11:36:29 PM

I didn't expect it to climb $100k instantly anyway. It'll probably happen after the halving when the supply starts to dry out.

If 100k will be hit similar to what happened to 10k...

We will hit 100k and in a few days 200k. Then we will crash to 170k and after a long crying period we will hit 32k, just to slowly climb back to 100k again.
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June 09, 2019, 11:39:19 PM

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

We might and we might not, lol.
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June 09, 2019, 11:42:18 PM

Just found this gem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqpwuJw7cxY

If someone told me years ago that the Bitcoin blocksize drama would be discussed in Oxford of all places I would have thought that was the dumbest shit i've heard, yet here we are. Somehow CSW got there.

You can even discuss "Is LOL really a kind of obvious spam?" at Oxford if you've got only a few thousand dollars to spare:

Hire a Room

https://www.oxford-union.org/private_hire/hire_a_room

Goodman Library is present there; it's the place where CSW is talking in the video.

Ah I see, so it's another business. Not surprised. I would argue that they have some sort of filters in place tho. I doubt discussing if lol'ing all over this thread is acceptable or not would be acceptable, excuse the redundancy.

I would still claim that the irony of big blocks vs small blocks accusing each other of marxism is of interest.
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June 09, 2019, 11:53:08 PM


whoa! I might get deleted again ...ahhhh ....
 Hey Info.. I promise never to be naughty anymore. Grin

Anyone remember in WO history, in April 2016 (I looked it up... I am not that nerdy  Shocked) when there were a few days in which several of us were posting to see how many embedded posts to have in a string?

The stringing of posts like that lasted a few days, and then many of those posts were deleted.   Go figure... the embedded posts became somewhat unreadable, especially attempting to figure out who said what.
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June 09, 2019, 11:58:14 PM

Just found this gem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqpwuJw7cxY

If someone told me years ago that the Bitcoin blocksize drama would be discussed in Oxford of all places I would have thought that was the dumbest shit i've heard, yet here we are. Somehow CSW got there.

You can even discuss "Is LOL really a kind of obvious spam?" at Oxford if you've got only a few thousand dollars to spare:

Hire a Room

https://www.oxford-union.org/private_hire/hire_a_room

Goodman Library is present there; it's the place where CSW is talking in the video.

I doubt discussing if lol'ing all over this thread is acceptable or not would be acceptable, excuse the redundancy.

Why not? That's a very solid topic. We need to define the limits of spam and differentiate between the types of it such as mega-spam, mini-spam, obvious spam, spam to ruin the SEO of the website, etc, and categorize the "LOL" into one of these types.

Once we reach $100k, I'll prove to you that it's totally possible to discuss such a topic by booking a room (Goodman Library) in Oxford and inviting you there. Wink
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June 10, 2019, 12:34:18 AM

https://twitter.com/Pladizow/status/1137365280844390406
Quote
Bitcoin difficulty adjustments alter the difficulty of miners finding blocks. There have only been 7 instances where the monthly difficulty adjustments have declined. These decreases have done a good job of locating cyclical bottoms. So far, so good.

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June 10, 2019, 12:39:06 AM
Last edit: June 10, 2019, 04:49:28 AM by soxxx

It's nice to walk outside and be reminded just exactly where we are heading.

Quote
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June 10, 2019, 12:48:30 AM

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

We might and we might not, lol.

Im more on the bearish side right now.

65% going to 6k vs 35% going to 9k.

Im looking for a short entry here.
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June 10, 2019, 01:08:22 AM

Anyone remember in WO history, in April 2016 (I looked it up... I am not that nerdy  Shocked) when there were a few days in which several of us were posting to see how many embedded posts to have in a string?
The stringing of posts like that lasted a few days, and then many of those posts were deleted.   Go figure... the embedded posts became somewhat unreadable, especially attempting to figure out who said what.
Well Jay you got me...
I confess to editing my post to include a few more "lol" quotes, just for an extra lol... and couldn't be bothered to fix the double quote and ensuing confusion...my bad...
JayJuanGee
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June 10, 2019, 01:33:38 AM

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

We might and we might not, lol.

Im more on the bearish side right now.

65% going to 6k vs 35% going to 9k.

Im looking for a short entry here.


Could be?  Your measurement of odds seem in the ballpark of reasonable, even though I continue to be inclined towards 50/50 thinking because I hate to make any bets in the way that I approach my BTC holdings (which I prefer to assure that I am adding to my reserves, rather than gambling that I may or may not add to my reserves).

Anyhow, I merely buy if the BTC price goes down and sell if the price goes up.  Seems safe, no?

In this case, I have already sold all the way up to $9k, so in recent times I have been put into buying mode, so my buy orders have been executing as the BTC price has been going down.  

Seems to work a lot better than trying to guess, and even if I were to have more confidence - such as something above 60%, which you seem to have, and even if you are guessing in a kind of reasonable way, to me, it seems as if you are betting too... because one thing is to close a long by selling a little bit of BTC, but another extra risk is to add leverage onto the situation by entering into a short position (which is what you said that you are doing)... too scary for me, and too much gambling for my risk tolerance temperament in terms of my preference to preserve what BTCs I have worked so hard to accumulate over the past 5.5 years.
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June 10, 2019, 01:39:27 AM

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

We might and we might not, lol.

Im more on the bearish side right now.

65% going to 6k vs 35% going to 9k.

Im looking for a short entry here.


Could be.  Your odds seem in the ballpark of reasonable, even though I continue towards 50/50 thinking because I hate to make any bets in the way that I approach my BTC holdings (which I prefer to assure that I am adding to my reserves, rather than gambling that I may or may not add to my reserves).

Anyhow, I merely buy if the BTC price goes down and sell if the price goes up.  Seems safe, no?

In this case, I have already sold all the way up to $9k, so in recent times I have been put into buying mode, so my buy orders have been executing as the BTC price has been going down.  

Seems to work a lot better than trying to guess, and even if I were to have more confidence - such as something above 60%, which you seem to have, and even if you are guessing in a kind of reasonable way, to me, it seems as if you are betting too... because one thing is to close a long by selling a little bit of BTC, but another extra risk is to add leverage onto the situation by entering into a short position (which is what you said that you are doing)... too scary for me, and too much gambling for my risk tolerance temperament in terms of my preference to preserve what BTCs I have worked so hard to accumulate over the past 5.5 years.

That slow buying is easy, however slow selling is more problematic, especially since some coins you bought 5.5 years ago, although it depends on whether you use FIFO or LIFO accounting (the latter is simpler, but maybe less common). FIFO would guarantee at least long term cap gains status, which is much lower in US vs short term gains that are taxed by your tax bracket.

In addition, in a case of an old coin sell, properly splitting off at least 3, maybe 4 meaningful forks is also an annoying task.
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June 10, 2019, 01:40:10 AM

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

We might and we might not, lol.


it's


magic
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June 10, 2019, 02:32:53 AM

English food and wine are not quite the best

lol

Reminds me of that old scattergun ethnic joke:
_____

The difference between heaven and hell

In heaven
The cops are English,
The chefs are French,
The mechanics are German,
The lovers are Italian,
And the administrators are Swiss.

In hell
The cops are German,
The chefs are English,
The mechanics are French,
The lovers are Swiss,
And the administrators are Italian.
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June 10, 2019, 02:51:09 AM

It's nice to walk outside and be reminded just exactly where we are heading.


It's a nice place, I think that is cold weather place not like ours always summer(hot), where this located at?

I hope we're near heading soon the price of bitcoin to the moon. Cheesy

#stronghands'19
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June 10, 2019, 03:04:18 AM

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

We might and we might not, lol.

All you need to do is draw a bunch of squiggles on a chart, and you can be a top analyst on tardingview now
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June 10, 2019, 03:04:27 AM

compression check on the girl's car;

165     15      180     170



no corn for me this month

Sad
JayJuanGee
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June 10, 2019, 03:25:51 AM

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

We might and we might not, lol.

Im more on the bearish side right now.

65% going to 6k vs 35% going to 9k.

Im looking for a short entry here.


Could be.  Your odds seem in the ballpark of reasonable, even though I continue towards 50/50 thinking because I hate to make any bets in the way that I approach my BTC holdings (which I prefer to assure that I am adding to my reserves, rather than gambling that I may or may not add to my reserves).

Anyhow, I merely buy if the BTC price goes down and sell if the price goes up.  Seems safe, no?

In this case, I have already sold all the way up to $9k, so in recent times I have been put into buying mode, so my buy orders have been executing as the BTC price has been going down.  

Seems to work a lot better than trying to guess, and even if I were to have more confidence - such as something above 60%, which you seem to have, and even if you are guessing in a kind of reasonable way, to me, it seems as if you are betting too... because one thing is to close a long by selling a little bit of BTC, but another extra risk is to add leverage onto the situation by entering into a short position (which is what you said that you are doing)... too scary for me, and too much gambling for my risk tolerance temperament in terms of my preference to preserve what BTCs I have worked so hard to accumulate over the past 5.5 years.

That slow buying is easy, however slow selling is more problematic, especially since some coins you bought 5.5 years ago, although it depends on whether you use FIFO or LIFO accounting (the latter is simpler, but maybe less common). FIFO would guarantee at least long term cap gains status, which is much lower in US vs short term gains that are taxed by your tax bracket.

In addition, in a case of an old coin sell, properly splitting off at least 3, maybe 4 meaningful forks is also an annoying task.

I will agree that accounting complicates matters; however, the point that I was making in my above post related to a practice that seems to be betting on one direction or another... namely down in the case that criptix was describing.

Accordingly, there have been a large number of folks who had been betting on down since April 1 and even before that - remember April 1 and crossing over the $4,200 threshold in a kind of violent upwards movement.  Thereafter, the bets continue to come in for DOWN, and yeah sooner or later the down bets are going to be correct... but are they ready to be correct?  I would not mind being able to buy some more bitcoin, but I also don't mind going to $12k before our inevitable meaningful correction takes place.

Just because we have a current BTC price correction thats gotten down to the 15% to 17% arena does not mean that we are going to get a 30% to 40% correction, which seems to be the arena that criptix is anticipating with a 65% confidence level.

I cannot help myself to continue to remain largely agnostic in my ways of thinking about short-term bitcoin price directions.

Sure, it was fair for criptix to select a price range of $6k to $9k because that seems to be going (in the ballpark) about the same amount of upwards or downwards price movement, of about $1,500 from our current price and assigning probabilities to those opposing directions... saying that it is decently higher likelihood that BTC's price is going down, rather than up.  Even though he is assigning a 15% higher likelihood off of my 50% thinking, he ends up having a 30% gap between his down prediction and his up prediction, which shows that the gap between up and down is greater than what it might first appear to be, and I just have difficulties assigning those kinds of high probabilities (even when they seem low) to predicting BTC's short term price direction - and further putting money on such a bet.
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June 10, 2019, 04:48:00 AM

It's nice to walk outside and be reminded just exactly where we are heading.


It's a nice place, I think that is cold weather place not like ours always summer(hot), where this located at?

I hope we're near heading soon the price of bitcoin to the moon. Cheesy

#stronghands'19
NY it was actually nice today, usually not too warm though.
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June 10, 2019, 05:01:20 AM

I've deleted a series of my posts from the 7th.
They sadly remain in quotes for now.
I apologise to all the good gentlemen of this thread, and will try to do better.
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June 10, 2019, 05:07:06 AM



Quote
Graph showing a measure of developer activity on Bitcoin: # of code reviews per month, for code that ended up being merged

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PYqieGQDKur2e7poxe7DD12pnmBuYxReFwNkAq8U1bo/edit#gid=643870595

Peer review is crucial for code quality, developer learning, and in Bitcoin: the continued integrity of the protocol.

https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1137789958478057472




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