Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Krubster]

Hey WO's,

Today I had a class (I teach electronics as a side activity to my main job). We were talking about digital stuff, gates, etc. One thing led to another and we ended up talking about Bitcoin. I felt like Andreas Antonopoulos on stage...

Some statistics:

-- Most students hadn't even heard about Bitcoin, and those few who had were all males, no females knew anything about it. However, the females were very interested, especially when they realised it can be very profitable.

-- The few students that knew about it were mostly misinformed about what it is and how it works.

-- The entire class (about 30 students) was ecstatic. They really wanted to know and understand it. We skipped all breaks, they wanted to stay in the classroom and learn about it.

-- Many of them wanted to buy. Many downloaded wallets on their phones. Some purchased online versions of Andreas Antonopoulos' book.

The entire experience confirmed what I already knew: this thing is just getting started. Young generations are very keen to embrace the new technology, when it is properly presented and explained to them. Not sure if what I did was "appropriate", but it felt right, and I felt glad that my "lecture" may change the lives of some of those guys.

Keep HoDLing!

Sir,

Excellent post. This is what bitcoin is all about. Here, have my first ever spent merit.

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[El duderino_]

^
Solid first spend

[El duderino_]

Going into again a to late HODLsleep

Goodnight Brothers of BTC

11283!!!!!!!!!!!!! just saying !!!!!!!!

[rdbase]

10minutes to brightburn

Hope the price is back at 12K after the movie

Hope you enjoyed the movie as we are approaching back to $12,000 territory once again.
Do you have a crystal ball or something to tell you the price movement from hour to hour?

[Krubster]

^
Solid first spend

Yeah, I thought so too.

You deserve my second one. You don't know me, but I've been reading this thread for years. You're such a positive person. We need more people like you. Hodlsleep tight!

[cmacwuz]

Cannot believe that mega-doji on 3d closed in green, aye carumba

[Krubster]

Cannot believe that mega-doji on 3d closed in green, aye carumba

Care to elaborate? Think we're in for a reversal?

[realr0ach]

Also I will never need lecture when it comes to movies, thats really my space

Let's see what you know about movies.  Did you know that in the script of Prometheus, the engineers hate humans and decide to destroy them because the engineers educated a human in their ways (Jesus) and then the evil cult of Judaism Pharisees killed him?  (no, not kidding).

[JayJuanGee]

Cannot believe that mega-doji on 3d closed in green, aye carumba

Yep... that is an interesting looking doji candle.

Certainly, I am no technical analyst expert but I would suggest that this particular candle signifies that there is a bit of indecision regarding the direction of the market, and the battle is decently sized, so whether that candle had closed green or red might not be such a BIG deal.  

The fact that the top of the candle is longer than the bottom captures a bit of an upwards inclination and that perhaps the correction has been sufficient to capture the excess steam of the past few days, but it would be difficult to read much more into it - beyond just having a whole hell of a lot of BTC price movement in such a short period.. and a decently-sized ongoing battle to attempt to resolve a which way the BTC price should go in the short term.  

I personally believe that the odds are slightly in favor of the bears in the very short term, such as in the next several weeks.

I would think that sometime soon after these next proximate several weeks, the odds are going to return to the bulls.

In other words, this time I have a bit of a tendency to believe down is to happen before up, when a few weeks ago, I was quite skeptical when posters were making that same kind of assertion because our upwards momentum was building and building and building.. and not really stopping, until it did.. Once the upward momentum was able to be able to be stopped, now the short term situation seems a bit different, and short term down seems to have better odds than up... .down before up....    

I don't give too many shits about being wrong either... Who doesn't appreciate an underdog that pulls through a tough spell?   I certainly do.   Go BTC go!!!!!! 

[bitcoinPsycho]

[HairyMaclairy]

Let me tell you of the impossible dream.

A support line that runs all the way back to the dawn of time.  At $2.22 at the bottom of the crash in November 2011.  A support line that held us up during the depths of the cryptowinter.

Weekly view of the support line



Daily view of the support line



A support line that, when finally broken in November 2018, heralded the final throes of the 2018 bear market.  See first yellow circle where it was broken.



But this support line, which was believed to be lost forever as it soared off into the stratosphere, was unexpectedly touched on June 22 and 23 2019.



We then soared above it on June 26 and June 27.  Surely we had soared too high, too fast?  Surely this was impossible?



Today the support line sits around $11,445.  

If we can recover $11,445 and against all odds, hold above this line, this would represent an uninterrupted logarithmic bull market all the way back to 2011.  Surely this is the impossible dream?  This is why I am currently bearish.  But if we break and hold above, then all bets are off.

[HairyMaclairy]

For context, here is my post on November 16 2018 when we broke downwards through the same long term trend line. Now we have broken upwards back through it, something I thought would never happen. 

Managed to get back to a computer instead of trying to chart on a mobile phone.  And I don't really like what I see.  

Overview back to 2012 showing build of long term trend line from cryptowinter (weekly)


Overview of 2017 / 2018 showing build of 2017 support line plus 2017 downward trend line (daily)


Zoomed in on daily.  Showing we have fallen through a hole beneath three key trend lines


4 hour view showing our current position in the hole


1 hour view showing our current failure to break out of the hole

[Biodom]

If we can recover and hold above this line, this would represent an uninterrupted logarithmic bull market all the way back to 2011.  Surely this is the impossible dream?  This is why I am currently bearish.  But if we break and hold above, then all bets are off.

Nice graphs and interesting interpretation.
Why you call it "uninterrrupted", though?  
We seemed to plunge below the line last winter and only recently recovered only to dip just a bit below.

[HairyMaclairy]

Fair enough.  Perhaps uninterrupted is the wrong word.  But "straight line logarithmic" doesn't sound any better.  There is probably a better term.

[Biodom]

Fair enough.  Perhaps uninterrupted is the wrong word.  But "straight line logarithmic" doesn't sound any better.  There is probably a better term.

The best fit for bitcoin prices during 2011-2019 is represented by a logarithmic curve with a current time value of 11445?

[eddie13]

I haven't been trading but I need some of this action..

100k sat says we have a new ATH before we break down through $10k..
First taker gets it..

edit: eherm I mean all year high, like $13,764..

[JayJuanGee]

I haven't been trading but I need some of this action..

100k sat says we have a new ATH before we break down through $10k..
First taker gets it..

edit: eherm I mean all year high, like $13,764..

That seems like a fair bet.

I am sure someone would be more than willing to take you up on the bet, and you will likely lose the bet fairly quickly (within a few days)... hahahahahaha

Anyhow, in this thread, we usually use stamp for these kinds of price measuring matters.  The current yearly high on stamp is $13,880.


You might even lose the bet before you are able to finalize its terms, exactly.   

[eddie13]

I haven't been trading but I need some of this action..

100k sat says we have a new ATH before we break down through $10k..
First taker gets it..

edit: eherm I mean all year high, like $13,764..

That seems like a fair bet.

I am sure someone would be more than willing to take you up on the bet, and you will likely lose the bet fairly quickly (within a few days)... hahahahahaha

Anyhow, in this thread, we usually use stamp for these kinds of price measuring matters.  The current yearly high on stamp is $13,880.


You might even lose the bet before you are able to finalize its terms, exactly.  

Your right.. 10k might be the perfect bear trap just to break it a little..

Ok yeah nevermind.. So much gloom in this thread and I just feel like 10k is good to hold..

[JayJuanGee]

I haven't been trading but I need some of this action..

100k sat says we have a new ATH before we break down through $10k..
First taker gets it..

edit: eherm I mean all year high, like $13,764..

That seems like a fair bet.

I am sure someone would be more than willing to take you up on the bet, and you will likely lose the bet fairly quickly (within a few days)... hahahahahaha

Anyhow, in this thread, we usually use stamp for these kinds of price measuring matters.  The current yearly high on stamp is $13,880.


You might even lose the bet before you are able to finalize its terms, exactly.  

Your right.. 10k might be the perfect bear trap just to break it a little..

Probably a better bet that would be closer to 50/50 odds would be for you to take $9k side of such a similar bet, but if you want to be more aggressive and titillating in your bet terms, then so be it, then you might frame your side of the bet as $9,800, but I still believe that is a loser bet of less than 50/50 odds - but hey, we should have differing views about these kinds of things, that's for sure.  That's part of the reason that BTC's price has so much volatility, because people have differing views of its value and also its price direction (short-term and long-term).

[lightfoot]

I can't believe people are depressed. 10k-11k is just fine for the moment.