Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

Whoops..almost forgot to post this. I was so enthralled with the complete meta-ness that has invaded the WO recently. Quiet charming no?    

Good morning guys.


It feels like a new beginning as July starts off with bitcoin trading around $10.35k this morning. Moderate consolidation is being seen across the market today as $10k+ support continues to be tested.

#dyor
1h


4h


D

#stronghands'19

[1713557518]

1713557518

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Having a bad day & 4 fucking digits, it gets worse. How low is this going to go?
I think I might kill somebody if we go back to 4k or below.

Don 't do it!!!!!

Don't do it!!!!!!!


It's not that BIG of a deal -

Sure, I am going to start to get worried if we start to approach $7,500, which would cause me to have to restructure my buy orders - probably I would restructure them all the way down to $2k - just so I don't have to worry about having enough money to cover all of that territory.


So, yeah, I would not want BTC prices to go lower, but they are going to do what they are going to do, and you already know the deal... right?   Buy on the way down.

Have enough money to be able to buy on the way down. 

Don't put all of your eggs in one direction, especially short term.

We know that it is pretty likely that 2021 is going to be a really good year... but there are no guarantees of that, either.  It is possible that we could still be in the $5k territory in 2021, but as long as us long termers do not engage in some stupid-ass behaviors, we should still be profitable, even at $5k..

Yeah, who the fuck wants $5k, it would be much better to have higher numbers, but those higher numbers are not guaranteed, even though BTC is a BIG ASS asymmetric bet that gives us a kind of solid set of possibilities that are likely to NOT be like any other place that we can put our money.. and furthermore, there remains a pretty small number of people (likely less than 1% of the world's population and probably even smaller than that) who have the asymmetric information to be able to personally profit because we (or should I say wwwwwwwweeeeeeeeeeee) are both understanding the asymmetric information and we are taking steps to invest (and HODL) through the UPs and DOWNs.....

Currently, we seem to be on a down, but what the fuck you expect?  I mean really.  Prices shot up from $4,200 on April 1 to $13,880 in a time span of less than 3 months, with only a couple of blips of correction.  Yeah, I have no fucking clue, but it does seem reasonable to take a bit of pause, whether here or at some other point, and a pause in bitcoin is never going to be completely relaxing, is it?  How you going to relax in bitcoin?  The main way to relax in bitcoin is to zoom out, and to see "how far we have come, baby."   

Longer term folks should be in profits, shorter term could go either way, but even shorter term folks can continue to accumulate BTC and just try to balance their strategies to continue to accumulate - even if in the red, and your odds are that sooner or later, you are going to be in the black (or green) and considerably so, and so much in the black (or green) that you will thank ur selfie for being such a smartie pants.         

JJG, I’m very volatile as a person. I’ve relaxed now & what will be, will be. I’m constantly buying any way on the way down & to be honest on the way up too. We’ll get there in the end. Bitcoin puts me through every emption known to man though.

[Gyrsur]

JJG you just replied to yourself?

no he quoted himself. he want to talk to somebody but there is nobody to talk.

but the climbing girl looks really like a man somehow.  

EDIT: I heard a joke and I try to translate it:

A Man A Word
A Woman A Wordbook
And A Queen A Encyclopedia

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

JJG, I’m very volatile as a person. I’ve relaxed now & what will be, will be. I’m constantly buying any way on the way down & to be honest on the way up too. We’ll get there in the end. Bitcoin puts me through every emption known to man though.

Fair enough.  I have already seen that you do sometimes get carried away sometimes, and then you make statements that reflect your having had gotten carried away.  It's not a BIG deal, and of course, on the interwebs we can do these kinds of things, and it kind of reflects the reality of the moments.

Even though I am frequently addressing you, I tend to just want to attempt to clarify the matter as a talking-point in order to suggest that other responses are reasonable too, so perhaps it is therapeutic for me, too, to type out a response in order to say why the reaction might be too strong or to suggest that it might not be as bad as you are making it out to be or maybe even suggesting other measures that might be reasonably taken.  

Hey I read this forum (and write my long-ass responses) in order to help myself in attempting to understand if I might need to make some adjustments in my own approach, whether that is to adjust my thinking or maybe to adjust my buy/sell orders in order to better hedge my bets (and/or increase likelihoods for long term profits).

Probably, I do not get as emotional on the way down as I used to because my system seems to have a lot of safeguards in it for being able to buy down as long as I need to and to NOT run out of money... even for the most exaggerated of scenarios.  Of course, I am still irritated as many of us are when my portfolio is losing value and the price keeps going down and down and down, and at a certain point, it is way the hell beyond expectations and causing me to second guess whether I might have sold a bit more or just not bought as much on the way down and at higher prices.

I still think that the more of an equity cushion that we build, the easier it is to become less concerned about the volatility, but I doubt that the anxiety will ever go away completely, even when my status might reach another 100x greater than what I ever thought that I would be able to achieve.  Probably currently, I am only a few x greater than what I thought that I could ever achieve, so my status of wealth is not quite to the "filthy rich" level which could cause me to begin to consider matters a bit differently from my current way.. perhaps?  Perhaps?   Not really going to know for sure, but I would not mind getting there (to filthy rich status that is) fairly soon in order that I will be able to confirm or deny that experiment through my own experiential means and measures.  

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@JJG

I was a lot worse in 2014 as we were slicing downwards like a knife through hot butter. I invested £xx,000 of my hard earned fiat & I thought for a long time that I’d seriously fucked up (obviously I’ve been buying ever since but my maximum fear came in 2014).
Obviously that all turned out well & I’m sitting on huge profits atm, more than I could ever achieve in life anywhere else probably.

I do panic when we get big corrections though because I start doing calculations & then it makes me realise that net worth wise, I’ve lost a lot. I’m a pessimist sometimes though & you should never read too much into my instant reactions to a bad situation. I usually think things are worse than they are & I calm down later

We’re still well on track to being, as you say, filthy rich. I’d just be a lot happier if it happened quickly haha.

[JayJuanGee]

JJG you just replied to yourself?

no he quoted himself. he want to talk to somebody but there is nobody to talk.

I just like talking with myself, especially when you guys just seem to be "off a bit", and just not "getting it."

Therefore, it is nice to exchange ideas with somebody who tends to be somewhat sensible (guess who that is?).   

[kenzawak]

Updated DT1 list :

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117330.0

Code:

theymos
HostFat
dooglus
gmaxwell
TECSHARE
phantastisch
OgNasty
SebastianJu
malevolent
qwk
Vod
Anduck
mprep
Foxpup
philipma1957
Cyrus
Flying Hellfish
Welsh
TMAN
Lauda
TookDk
Mitchell
Micio
Ticked
yogg
by rallier
dbshck
TheNewAnon135246
hybridsole
greenplastic
hilariousandco
arulbero
Avirunes
Lydian
mindrust
Piggy
buckrogers
Lesbian Cow
redsn0w
willi9974
cryptodevil
suchmoon
Rmcdermott927
achow101
teeGUMES
owlcatz
nutildah
dazedfool
sapta
tmfp
BitcoinPenny
yahoo62278
ezeminer
MaoChao
bones261
LoyceV
Last of the V8s
The Pharmacist
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
kzv
ekiller
TheFuzzStone
Jet Cash
bL4nkcode
Lafu
polymerbit
Gunthar
Hhampuz
finaleshot2016
xtraelv
crwth
Kryptowerk
krogothmanhattan
AlyattesLydia
roycilik
micgoossens
PHI1618
kenzawak
bavicrypto
Veleor
theyoungmillionaire
o_e_l_e_o
chimk
pandukelana2712
coinlocket$
witcher_sense
asche
DdmrDdmr
anonymousminer
Alex_Sr
morvillz7z
fillippone
taikuri13
abhiseshakana
Coolcryptovator
DireWolfM14
1miau
DIKUL
ICOEthics

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Updated DT1 list :

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117330.0

Code:

theymos
HostFat
dooglus
gmaxwell
TECSHARE
phantastisch
OgNasty
SebastianJu
malevolent
qwk
Vod
Anduck
mprep
Foxpup
philipma1957
Cyrus
Flying Hellfish
Welsh
TMAN
Lauda
TookDk
Mitchell
Micio
Ticked
yogg
by rallier
dbshck
TheNewAnon135246
hybridsole
greenplastic
hilariousandco
arulbero
Avirunes
Lydian
mindrust
Piggy
buckrogers
Lesbian Cow
redsn0w
willi9974
cryptodevil
suchmoon
Rmcdermott927
achow101
teeGUMES
owlcatz
nutildah
dazedfool
sapta
tmfp
BitcoinPenny
yahoo62278
ezeminer
MaoChao
bones261
LoyceV
Last of the V8s
The Pharmacist
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
kzv
ekiller
TheFuzzStone
Jet Cash
bL4nkcode
Lafu
polymerbit
Gunthar
Hhampuz
finaleshot2016
xtraelv
crwth
Kryptowerk
krogothmanhattan
AlyattesLydia
roycilik
micgoossens
PHI1618
kenzawak
bavicrypto
Veleor
theyoungmillionaire
o_e_l_e_o
chimk
pandukelana2712
coinlocket$
witcher_sense
asche
DdmrDdmr
anonymousminer
Alex_Sr
morvillz7z
fillippone
taikuri13
abhiseshakana
Coolcryptovator
DireWolfM14
1miau
DIKUL
ICOEthics

My turn to get rotated out this month, bastards

104 eligible this month so me & 3 others rotate out for one month before coming back in next month 

[eddie13]

Well, there you have it, eddie13.

About 2 hours ago, BTC prices broke below $10k - albiet for only a short period of time on Bitstamp, but still enough in order for you to have lost the bet that you were proposing.

Finex is still holding on by a thread..

But yeah I'm hoping that this recent pump isn't something of a dead cat bounce off 20k with more winter to come from here..
It's like too soon for another pump but too late for a winter bounce.. Not real sure what's going on, as we never really are..

Edit:

And here we have a 1k BTC buy order..


Last time I saw the 1k BTC buy orders coming..

You see that 1,000 BTC buy order on finex?

edit:


I capped it

We ripped..

[JayJuanGee]

@JJG

I was a lot worse in 2014 as we were slicing downwards like a knife through hot butter. I invested £xx,000 of my hard earned fiat & I thought for a long time that I’d seriously fucked up (obviously I’ve been buying ever since but my maximum fear came in 2014).
Obviously that all turned out well & I’m sitting on huge profits atm, more than I could ever achieve in life anywhere else probably.

Ok, even though our experiences are a bit different, and I likely have 20 years on you, so that makes a difference, too, but in the end, we are still saying similar things, which is that Bitcoin provides an investment avenue that is either not really available to regular people or regular people do not want to jump through such hoops in order to be able to participate in some of the investments that would have been available in years gone by (and might still be available to some insider people).

Anyhow, I felt that I had been making decent investments all of my life, but I tended to invest in index funds and things like that and also I tended not to venture out too much, but even before I had gotten into bitcoin in late 2013, some of my investments had gone up 30% or more in some years, and did not perform as well in other years, but still overall I was ONLY getting a return of an average of about 6% per year, and I have not completely gotten rid of those traditional investments (many of them index funds that are tied into 401ks), but they still are only returning in about an 6% per year average.

So, I figured that even if bitcoin returned a bit less than 6%, at least it seems to have a decent sized asymmetric bet component that also allows a hedge against my dollar investment and nothing else had even come close, even though I used to consider that gold could be in the hedge category, but not necessarily in the asymmetric category.

So, anyhow, it seems to me (and you seem to recognize it too) that largely, historically regular pleebs did not tend to have access to these kinds of investments.

And, having said all of that both you and I recognize that our portfolios are performing way beyond expectations, and so I was actually getting into a very comfortable status in my regular investments (that I still have), but bitcoin ends up being icing on the cake for me, in terms of propelling me into an area of riches that are greater than I had expected to have (almost like winning the lottery).....   

So, yeah, you are in a similar category, whereby you are going to be able to contemplate retiring a lot earlier than expected, yet I still believe that since you are not quite there yet (not quite to the "can retire" level), you should keep planning, preparing and doing what you can to facilitate continued movement in that direction, but still don't get too anxious or take it for granted.. even though the odds remain quite great, and likely continue to be great as long as you keep plodding along towards doing what you have been doing (which seems to be largely the right thing to continue to bring you in the right direction).  Psychologically, it is not good to lock yourself in too much for a plan having to play out within a particular timeline, because as long as you continue to make measurable progress that you can see then you can figure out if there is something reasonable and/or prudent that you should do in order to tweak your system a bit in order to improve getting the results that you would prefer.

I do panic when we get big corrections though because I start doing calculations & then it makes me realise that net worth wise, I’ve lost a lot.

At least you say that you believe that you have gotten better regarding this anxiety, but your thinking does seem to be a bit messed up when you are considering "what you had lost" because that part is on paper and it is going to fluctuate, even several years at a time, so perhaps you spend time beating yourself up too much but there might still be ways to consider whether there are reasonable and prudent ways to tweak what you are doing a bit more.  Everyone is likely to come to slightly differing results in terms of what tweaks to make, and you might even be different from your girlfriend/partner (but fuck her... hahahahahahaha)... Anywhooo, you know that we differ in terms of the things that we always list as being individualizations that we each have to measure, which are at minimum:  our other investments, cashflow, risk tolerance, views about bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, our skills, times and abilities to play around with our investments).

I’m a pessimist sometimes though & you should never read too much into my instant reactions to a bad situation. I usually think things are worse than they are & I calm down later

Actually, maybe I do read too much into it from time to time, but in the end, I am just using whatever outrageous (or not) thing that you posted as a spring board to post about the idea, and you do come up with some good ones from time to time, and yeah, I recognize that your posts go both ways, and sometimes some of them are just thoughts of the moment.. and that is fine, too.

We’re still well on track to being, as you say, filthy rich. I’d just be a lot happier if it happened quickly haha.

I am saying that I have already become richer than expected, I expect to become even richer, but also, I have enough cushion in my investment and even my strategy and even my psychology that I am also o.k. if I neither become rich as fuck, even if I do not maintain the same level of excessive richness that I have already achieved and even if I become more poor. 

Of course, my preference is up or even maintaining, but even while I am ready, willing and able to accept going down a bit, in the end, there is also a certain level of going lower that would start to bother me, especially if I am having to go back to being a lot more frugal like I was in my earlier years and what got me to where I am today, but I have also gotten used to a bit of a splurging lifestyle that I prefer to continue and to even increase the amount of splurging that is possible.

[eddie13]

Coinbase depth looking oversold

[JayJuanGee]

Well, there you have it, eddie13.

About 2 hours ago, BTC prices broke below $10k - albiet for only a short period of time on Bitstamp, but still enough in order for you to have lost the bet that you were proposing.

Finex is still holding on by a thread..

Almost all bets and even general price predictions in this thread are base on Bitstamp, so if you expect anyone to bet with you using another exchange as your price measurement guideline, then those terms should be abundantly clear.

In other words, I could give two ratts asses what bitfinex says.. because I already mentioned in an earlier post that we tend to use stamp here, and you did not make any such clarification that you wanted to use another exchange or another set of exchanges in your bet proposal.

But yeah I'm hoping that this recent pump isn't something of a dead cat bounce off 20k with more winter to come from here..

I don't think that it is a BIG deal if $10k breaks, and therefore, that is why I was suggesting that your making a bet on $10k holding seemed to have been against the odds. 

Of course, the longer that the price stays above $10k, then the better the odds are that $10k is going to continue to hold and any kind of movement below $10k is only temporary, but even now, as I type this post, we are so damned close to $10k (within a couple percentage points), that it could take a bit of time and effort to get sufficiently above $10k in order that we can feel that $10k is in the bag and additionally that our yearly high of $13,880 is the next to come down.. which could take a bit of time to get back to breaking above that yearly high price point, too.

It's like too soon for another pump but too late for a winter bounce.. Not real sure what's going on, as we never really are..

I can agree with that too.  I don't tend to make predictions that go much beyond 50/50, but once in a while I might call something as having higher odds in one direction or another and it is even more rare if I might call some next step as 60/40 or higher... but at this point, I would suggest that our low of $3,122 for this cycle is about 75% or greater that it is "in" and it is not going to be breached.  Sure, these are just my opinions and feelings, but sometimes there are kind of trends that can give more or less levels of confidence.

[El duderino_]

Full list (1 MB)

Merit per day of the week
Monday 3571 (13.58%)
Tuesday 3906 (14.85%)
Wednesday 3778 (14.36%)
Thursday 4075 (15.49%)
Friday 3770 (14.33%)
Saturday 3434 (13.06%)
Sunday 3757 (14.29%)
Total: 26291

^* I don't think I'll update any of these files, unless there's a very strong demand for it.

Classic, most merit send on thursday, thats the day its STFU JJG

[Raja_MBZ]

I’m a pessimist sometimes though & you should never read too much into my instant reactions to a bad situation. I usually think things are worse than they are & I calm down later

I'm glad that you're aware of your bad habit of instant reactions to a bad situation (as well as instant reactions to a good situation). Sometimes, your reactions surely become very annoying, but I think it's fine. "Wall Observers" is a place of pure fun anyways (except for 1000+ words long posts of JJG).

[LoyceV]

Full list (1 MB)

Merit per day of the week
Monday 3571 (13.58%)
Tuesday 3906 (14.85%)
Wednesday 3778 (14.36%)
Thursday 4075 (15.49%)
Friday 3770 (14.33%)
Saturday 3434 (13.06%)
Sunday 3757 (14.29%)
Total: 26291

^* I don't think I'll update any of these files, unless there's a very strong demand for it.

Classic, most merit send on thursday, thats the day its STFU JJG

Merit was introduced on a Thursday and many users went overboard that day

[JSRAW]

Because they are in Zimbabwe how will they send you 11k$

I am looking at market in Zimbawe, Localbitcoin in Zimbawe: sellers in zimbawe for buyers in Zimbawe.

https://localbitcoins.com/country/ZW

BITCOIN PRICE HITS $76,000 ON ZIMBABWE LOCALBITCOINS

As various media outlets reported in recent days, a full ban on foreign currency in Zimbabwe has triggered a giant premium for Bitcoin, which currently sells for up to $75,000.

At press time, BTC/USD hovered around $11,000, meaning the premium reaches a huge 580 percent.

Beginning last week, the country’s government opted to stop transactions in the US dollar and reintroduced the stricken Zimbabwean dollar, which disappeared in 2008 amid unbelievable hyperinflation.

The move caught citizens entirely by surprise, with the cash squeeze compounding anger about economic policy.

Edit : Oops, I missed one page somehow and noticed that Paashaas already shared it. Sorry for the double post.

[El duderino_]

JJG you just replied to yourself?

Hahahahahaa..

I will go back and clarify... thanks for pointing that out...

I do criticize peeps for quoting themselves excessively and there you go, I appear to have been attempting the same...     

Its just another JJG user.... don't mind that, bot taking over bot etc  

[JayJuanGee]

Full list (1 MB)

Merit per day of the week
Monday 3571 (13.58%)
Tuesday 3906 (14.85%)
Wednesday 3778 (14.36%)
Thursday 4075 (15.49%)
Friday 3770 (14.33%)
Saturday 3434 (13.06%)
Sunday 3757 (14.29%)
Total: 26291

^* I don't think I'll update any of these files, unless there's a very strong demand for it.

Classic, most merit send on thursday, thats the day its STFU JJG

You better go back to nurturing your team because you seem to be grasping at straws in your attempt to find material significance in your assessments of daily averages in WO merit.   


 

[El duderino_]

Because they are in Zimbabwe how will they send you 11k$

I am looking at market in Zimbawe, Localbitcoin in Zimbawe: sellers in zimbawe for buyers in Zimbawe.

https://localbitcoins.com/country/ZW

BITCOIN PRICE HITS $76,000 ON ZIMBABWE LOCALBITCOINS

As various media outlets reported in recent days, a full ban on foreign currency in Zimbabwe has triggered a giant premium for Bitcoin, which currently sells for up to $75,000.

At press time, BTC/USD hovered around $11,000, meaning the premium reaches a huge 580 percent.

Beginning last week, the country’s government opted to stop transactions in the US dollar and reintroduced the stricken Zimbabwean dollar, which disappeared in 2008 amid unbelievable hyperinflation.

The move caught citizens entirely by surprise, with the cash squeeze compounding anger about economic policy.

Last time pre-BULL run, Zimbabwe also was in front with high price I think they traded 12K+ or someething when the rest was trading around 8K and neveer even saw 10K

Is this a sign

[JayJuanGee]

"Wall Observers" is a place of pure fun anyways (except for 1000+ words long posts of JJG).

Largely, you have control over your own destiny Raja.. .one of the benefits of life... , which means that you and only you have discretion in regards to choosing what you read or not.